Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#29
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#15
Pace69.2#137
Improvement-1.4#251

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#29
First Shot+7.4#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks-0.9#211
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#74
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement+1.2#127

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#38
First Shot+5.8#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks+7.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#224
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement-2.6#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.6% 21.2% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 64.5% 85.3% 38.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 5.9 5.4 6.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round65.8% 70.6% 59.8%
Sweet Sixteen25.0% 29.9% 18.8%
Elite Eight7.5% 8.3% 6.4%
Final Four2.3% 2.6% 1.9%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 37 - 10
Quad 26 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 300   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 98%     1 - 0 +19.2 +12.1 +5.6
  Nov 08, 2024 328   Grambling St. W 66-64 99%     2 - 0 -11.1 -11.0 -0.1
  Nov 12, 2024 132   South Alabama W 64-54 92%     3 - 0 +9.1 -3.8 +13.6
  Nov 16, 2024 53   Colorado St. W 84-69 63%     4 - 0 +25.8 +25.2 +2.3
  Nov 21, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 100-68 98%     5 - 0 +19.7 +14.1 +4.1
  Nov 28, 2024 20   BYU W 96-85 OT 42%     6 - 0 +27.5 +14.9 +11.1
  Nov 29, 2024 16   Purdue L 78-80 39%     6 - 1 +15.2 +19.2 -4.2
  Dec 03, 2024 23   @ Louisville W 86-63 34%     7 - 1 +41.7 +26.0 +16.6
  Dec 07, 2024 332   Lindenwood W 86-53 99%     8 - 1 +19.5 +14.7 +6.7
  Dec 14, 2024 295   Southern Miss W 77-46 97%     9 - 1 +23.3 +10.4 +16.0
  Dec 17, 2024 240   Southern W 74-61 97%     10 - 1 +5.9 -1.6 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 207   Queens W 80-62 96%     11 - 1 +12.7 +2.3 +10.1
  Dec 28, 2024 50   @ Memphis L 70-87 52%     11 - 2 -3.2 -0.6 -1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 33   Georgia W 63-51 63%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +23.0 +1.8 +22.2
  Jan 08, 2025 37   @ Arkansas W 73-66 44%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +22.8 +15.1 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 86   LSU W 77-65 84%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +15.6 +8.2 +7.6
  Jan 14, 2025 5   @ Alabama W 74-64 18%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +33.9 +3.7 +29.4
  Jan 18, 2025 30   @ Mississippi St. L 81-84 OT 39%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +14.0 +10.3 +3.9
  Jan 22, 2025 22   Texas A&M L 62-63 53%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +12.6 -5.0 +17.7
  Jan 25, 2025 18   @ Missouri L 75-83 31%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +11.5 +3.6 +8.3
  Jan 29, 2025 42   Texas W 72-69 69%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +12.1 +7.4 +4.9
  Feb 01, 2025 2   Auburn L 82-92 24%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +11.5 +16.5 -4.9
  Feb 04, 2025 14   Kentucky W 98-84 48%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +28.9 +27.2 +1.5
  Feb 08, 2025 86   @ LSU W 72-70 69%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +11.1 +6.5 +4.7
  Feb 12, 2025 71   @ South Carolina W 72-68 63%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +14.8 +11.2 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 30   Mississippi St. L 71-81 61%     19 - 7 8 - 5 +1.5 -3.2 +5.6
  Feb 22, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt L 72-77 53%     19 - 8 8 - 6 +8.7 +6.1 +2.4
  Feb 26, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 76-106 12%     19 - 9 8 - 7 -3.0 +12.3 -14.8
  Mar 01, 2025 38   Oklahoma W 87-84 65%     20 - 9 9 - 7 +13.2 +15.9 -2.7
  Mar 05, 2025 6   Tennessee W 78-76 38%     21 - 9 10 - 7 +19.5 +24.0 -4.3
  Mar 08, 2025 3   @ Florida L 71-90 13%     21 - 10 10 - 8 +7.3 +7.5 +0.3
  Mar 13, 2025 37   Arkansas W 74-73 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0% 0.8% 99.2% 5.9 0.1 2.7 9.7 23.2 28.8 25.6 8.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.8% 99.2% 5.9 0.1 2.7 9.7 23.2 28.8 25.6 8.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 3.3 6.3 58.2 31.6 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3% 100.0% 4.1 0.9 22.0 44.4 27.2 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0% 100.0% 4.7 10.1 31.6 40.5 15.3 2.4 0.2
Lose Out 44.2% 99.9% 6.7 0.1 1.7 10.9 25.7 41.0 18.5 2.1