Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#19
Pace68.3#179
Improvement+2.0#95

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#37
First Shot+6.5#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#178
Layup/Dunks-1.1#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#85
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement-0.5#208

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#21
First Shot+7.0#20
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#100
Layups/Dunks+7.3#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#280
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#206
Freethrows+0.7#128
Improvement+2.5#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 2.6% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 16.8% 23.3% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 49.8% 61.4% 34.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.5% 98.6% 93.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.4% 98.6% 93.4%
Average Seed 6.5 5.9 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 86.2% 60.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 1.1% 5.7%
First Round95.2% 98.2% 91.3%
Second Round63.6% 69.2% 56.2%
Sweet Sixteen26.4% 30.7% 20.8%
Elite Eight9.7% 11.4% 7.5%
Final Four3.7% 4.6% 2.4%
Championship Game1.3% 1.7% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Kentucky (Home) - 57.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 11
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 99%     1 - 0 +17.3 +10.3 +5.4
  Nov 08, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 66-64 99%     2 - 0 -12.1 -12.3 +0.1
  Nov 12, 2024 156   South Alabama W 64-54 93%     3 - 0 +8.1 -3.0 +11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 77   Colorado St. W 84-69 75%     4 - 0 +22.4 +25.3 -1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 100-68 98%     5 - 0 +20.5 +13.0 +6.0
  Nov 28, 2024 33   BYU W 96-85 OT 54%     6 - 0 +24.7 +14.6 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 9   Purdue L 78-80 37%     6 - 1 +16.0 +21.4 -5.7
  Dec 03, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 86-63 41%     7 - 1 +39.9 +24.1 +16.8
  Dec 07, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 86-53 99%     8 - 1 +18.1 +13.1 +6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 248   Southern Miss W 77-46 96%     9 - 1 +25.9 +11.4 +17.5
  Dec 17, 2024 224   Southern W 74-61 96%     10 - 1 +7.1 -1.0 +7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 213   Queens W 80-62 96%     11 - 1 +12.6 +2.6 +9.8
  Dec 28, 2024 41   @ Memphis L 70-87 52%     11 - 2 -2.9 -0.8 -0.6
  Jan 04, 2025 37   Georgia W 63-51 69%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +21.5 +2.5 +20.0
  Jan 08, 2025 43   @ Arkansas W 73-66 52%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +21.1 +13.6 +8.0
  Jan 11, 2025 71   LSU W 77-65 81%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +17.3 +8.5 +8.9
  Jan 14, 2025 5   @ Alabama W 74-64 24%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +32.2 +3.2 +28.2
  Jan 18, 2025 35   @ Mississippi St. L 81-84 OT 46%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +12.7 +9.9 +2.9
  Jan 22, 2025 19   Texas A&M L 62-63 54%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +12.5 -6.1 +18.6
  Jan 25, 2025 23   @ Missouri L 75-83 39%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +9.5 +5.5 +4.5
  Jan 29, 2025 30   Texas W 72-69 61%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +14.6 +8.8 +6.0
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 82-92 28%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +10.7 +15.9 -5.2
  Feb 04, 2025 22   Kentucky W 81-80 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 71   @ LSU W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 79   @ South Carolina W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 35   Mississippi St. W 74-70 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 71-82 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 75-71 66%    
  Mar 05, 2025 6   Tennessee L 64-67 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 4   @ Florida L 71-79 22%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.3 0.9 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.7 4.8 2.8 0.2 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 7.1 0.7 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 9.1 3.7 0.1 14.4 6th
7th 0.3 7.4 7.8 0.6 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 9.5 2.4 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.3 6.5 4.8 0.2 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.9 5.2 0.8 7.8 10th
11th 0.2 2.5 1.4 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.2 2.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.3 2.0 6.7 15.8 24.1 24.0 17.1 7.6 2.3 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.3% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.0 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.6% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 3.9 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
11-7 17.1% 99.9% 5.1% 94.7% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.8 5.6 4.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 99.9%
10-8 24.0% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 6.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 5.6 7.1 6.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 24.1% 99.4% 1.6% 97.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.0 7.9 5.9 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.4%
8-10 15.8% 96.0% 0.7% 95.3% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.6 4.4 2.6 0.4 0.6 96.0%
7-11 6.7% 79.3% 0.1% 79.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 2.0 0.0 1.4 79.2%
6-12 2.0% 43.1% 43.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.1 43.1%
5-13 0.3% 12.0% 12.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.0%
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.5% 2.8% 93.7% 6.5 0.2 1.5 5.5 9.6 15.6 17.3 17.9 13.1 8.0 4.6 3.0 0.1 3.5 96.4%