Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#35
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#27
Pace67.5#203
Improvement-2.4#288

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#25
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#31
Layup/Dunks+3.4#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows-0.6#215
Improvement-1.6#281

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#50
First Shot+4.8#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#130
Layups/Dunks+8.8#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#343
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#268
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-0.8#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 8.3% 13.5% 4.3%
Top 6 Seed 32.4% 47.1% 21.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.9% 95.1% 80.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.8% 95.0% 80.5%
Average Seed 7.3 6.6 7.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.5% 56.0% 23.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four6.1% 2.5% 9.0%
First Round83.9% 94.0% 76.1%
Second Round48.7% 58.8% 41.0%
Sweet Sixteen17.3% 22.4% 13.4%
Elite Eight5.7% 7.8% 4.2%
Final Four2.0% 2.8% 1.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Georgia (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 112 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 345   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +20.7 +11.2 +8.0
  Nov 08, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 101-66 97%     2 - 0 +26.0 +15.3 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 80-59 95%     3 - 0 +14.8 +2.9 +11.3
  Nov 17, 2024 84   Utah W 78-73 72%     4 - 0 +12.1 +6.7 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 42   @ SMU W 84-79 46%     5 - 0 +19.1 +16.6 +2.5
  Nov 28, 2024 101   UNLV W 80-58 79%     6 - 0 +26.6 +13.6 +14.2
  Nov 29, 2024 75   Butler L 77-87 71%     6 - 1 -2.5 +3.4 -5.6
  Dec 04, 2024 47   Pittsburgh W 90-57 68%     7 - 1 +41.4 +22.1 +20.4
  Dec 08, 2024 348   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -7.9 +13.0 -20.7
  Dec 14, 2024 87   McNeese St. W 66-63 74%     9 - 1 +9.5 +1.6 +8.1
  Dec 17, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 83-59 93%     10 - 1 +20.5 +17.8 +5.0
  Dec 21, 2024 41   @ Memphis W 79-66 46%     11 - 1 +27.1 +11.8 +15.0
  Dec 30, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 87-73 97%     12 - 1 +5.0 +13.6 -8.5
  Jan 04, 2025 79   South Carolina W 85-50 79%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +39.9 +18.1 +22.5
  Jan 07, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 76-64 53%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +24.3 +11.2 +13.5
  Jan 11, 2025 22   Kentucky L 90-95 50%     14 - 2 2 - 1 +8.2 +14.0 -5.5
  Jan 14, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 66-88 12%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +3.7 +1.8 +2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 26   Mississippi W 84-81 OT 54%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +15.1 +12.8 +2.1
  Jan 21, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 56-68 20%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +10.1 +5.6 +2.8
  Jan 25, 2025 79   @ South Carolina W 65-60 OT 63%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +14.8 -1.8 +16.5
  Jan 29, 2025 5   Alabama L 84-88 35%     16 - 5 4 - 4 +13.2 +17.1 -3.9
  Feb 01, 2025 23   Missouri L 61-88 52%     16 - 6 4 - 5 -14.4 -2.8 -13.6
  Feb 08, 2025 37   @ Georgia L 70-71 43%    
  Feb 11, 2025 4   Florida L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Texas A&M L 71-72 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 79-88 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 71   LSU W 78-70 78%    
  Mar 04, 2025 30   Texas W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 43   @ Arkansas L 73-74 44%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.4 1.5 0.4 2.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 1.0 4.7 1.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.3 4.7 3.8 0.2 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 7.9 1.4 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.8 8.6 4.8 0.1 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 4.8 9.4 0.9 15.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 8.6 3.2 0.0 13.1 11th
12th 0.3 4.0 5.3 0.3 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 1.4 5.2 1.3 8.0 13th
14th 0.3 2.1 1.4 0.1 3.9 14th
15th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.7 4.3 12.1 20.9 24.4 19.5 12.2 4.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 3.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-7 4.8% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 4.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.2% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.3 3.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 19.5% 99.6% 1.2% 98.4% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 6.5 5.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.6%
8-10 24.4% 97.4% 0.8% 96.6% 7.7 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 5.8 8.2 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.6 97.4%
7-11 20.9% 88.4% 0.3% 88.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.2 6.2 5.8 1.8 2.4 88.4%
6-12 12.1% 53.6% 0.4% 53.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 0.1 5.6 53.4%
5-13 4.3% 15.5% 15.5% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 3.7 15.5%
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.9% 1.0% 85.9% 7.3 0.1 0.5 2.3 5.4 10.5 13.6 13.4 13.9 12.0 9.1 5.8 0.2 13.1 86.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%