Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.6 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +9.3 #67
Pace 70.3 #157
Improvement +5.8 #1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #72 C+ B- B+ C- D+
Defense #60 A B D+ C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.23 #95 -0.2 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #126 0.89 #36 +2.6 #64
Three Pointers 41% #181 0.98 #230 -0.7 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #135 +1.6 #134
Freethrows 16.5 #231 73% #182 12.0 #215
Second Chance 32.4% #133 1.13 #91 0.37 #91
Turnovers 14.5% #58
Total Offense +4.7 #72

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #355 1.06 #72 +7.6 #13
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.74 #163 -3.4 #354
Three Pointers 42% #148 0.84 #17 +3.1 #69
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #21 +7.3 #21
Freethrows 15.2 #71 76% #313 11.5 #250
Second Chance 26.5% #53 1.05 #197 0.28 #82
Turnovers 15.0% #278
Total Defense +4.9 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #256 -4.0% #7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #119 -10.6% #34
Possession Length 16.4 #100 17.3 #206
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.14 #75
Improvement +1.7 #79 +4.1 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 3.9% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 40.3% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 24.1% 39.8% 19.7%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.2
.500 or above 52.2% 71.7% 46.8%
.500 or above in Conference 33.9% 53.0% 28.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 2.5% 9.4%
First Four6.1% 7.9% 5.6%
First Round21.1% 36.0% 16.9%
Second Round9.0% 16.3% 7.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 3.0% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 54 - 11
Quad 25 - 49 - 15
Quad 32 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 293 North Alabama W 86 - 62 96%  +5  1 - 0 +14 +7 B- F A+ +6 B- B- B
 Mon, Nov 10 3 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 11%  -11  1 - 1 +7 +14 A+ A+ F -5 A- D+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 260 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 95%  +5  2 - 1 -2 -3 C- C- D +1 A B- F
 Thu, Nov 20 74 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 56%  -8  2 - 2 -13 +2 C+ F C -14 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 56 New Mexico L 78 - 80 50%  -2  2 - 3 +8 +9 A- D A+ -1 B+ C+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 236 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 93%  -4  3 - 3 -4 -5 D A- F +1 A- B+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 28 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 43%  +1  3 - 4 +5 +1 D C- A+ +5 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 114 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 61%  +8  4 - 4 +19 +12 B A+ D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 100 San Francisco L 62 - 65 67%  -5  4 - 5 +2 +0 D+ C A+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 117 Utah W 82 - 74 73%  -6  5 - 5 +11 +9 A+ F A +2 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 209 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 91%  +3  6 - 5 -2 +8 C B+ A+ -10 C B- F
 Sat, Dec 20 78 Memphis W 71 - 66 68%  +4  7 - 5 +10 +3 B- C- C- +7 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 301 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96%  +18  8 - 5 +27 +15 C+ A+ B+ +13 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 45 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 32%  +1  9 - 5 1 - 0 +17 +17 B A+ B- -0 B+ B D
 Wed, Jan 7 48 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 57%  +5  10 - 5 2 - 0 +27 +5 F A+ B +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 27 @Kentucky L 71 - 79 22% 
 Tue, Jan 13 13 Alabama L 83 - 89 29% 
 Sat, Jan 17 71 Mississippi W 75 - 71 67% 
 Wed, Jan 21 40 @Texas A&M L 78 - 84 29% 
 Sat, Jan 24 7 Vanderbilt L 75 - 83 23% 
 Wed, Jan 28 42 @LSU L 74 - 79 31% 
 Sat, Jan 31 51 @Missouri L 75 - 79 36% 
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Arkansas L 79 - 83 36% 
 Wed, Feb 11 16 Tennessee L 70 - 75 32% 
 Sat, Feb 14 71 @Mississippi L 72 - 74 44% 
 Wed, Feb 18 33 Auburn L 78 - 79 45% 
 Sat, Feb 21 72 @South Carolina L 72 - 73 45% 
 Wed, Feb 25 13 @Alabama L 80 - 92 14% 
 Sat, Feb 28 51 Missouri W 78 - 76 57% 
 Tue, Mar 3 12 @Florida L 70 - 82 14% 
 Sat, Mar 7 24 Georgia L 83 - 86 39% 
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 10 +10 +5 C+ B- B+ +5 A B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 3.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.2 2.3 0.2 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 4.6 0.6 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.9 2.4 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 4.2 5.1 0.5 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 2.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.7 4.8 4.3 0.3 10.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.9 1.4 0.0 9.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.0 0.1 7.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.6 15th
16th 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.3 3.4 16th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.3 10.0 14.5 17.3 16.6 13.4 9.5 6.0 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 82.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 52.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.3% 98.1% 3.5% 94.6% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.0%
12-6 3.1% 97.3% 2.9% 94.3% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 97.2%
11-7 6.0% 91.6% 2.0% 89.6% 8.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 91.4%
10-8 9.5% 73.7% 0.9% 72.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 2.5 1.3 2.5 73.5%
9-9 13.4% 42.5% 0.3% 42.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 0.0 7.7 42.3%
8-10 16.6% 7.4% 0.3% 7.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.1 15.4 7.2%
7-11 17.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.2 0.8%
6-12 14.5% 14.5
5-13 10.0% 10.0
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 2.1% 2.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.4% 0.5% 24.0% 9.0 75.6 24.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%