Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#24
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#10
Pace68.4#197
Improvement-0.6#224

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#18
First Shot+4.8#61
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#20
Layup/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows-0.8#236
Improvement-1.2#274

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#35
First Shot+5.1#41
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#93
Layups/Dunks+9.2#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#286
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement+0.5#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.9% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 13.5% 13.6% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 43.9% 44.2% 23.2%
Top 6 Seed 68.1% 68.4% 49.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.1% 92.2% 82.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.8% 92.0% 82.0%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.2
.500 or above 98.9% 98.9% 93.8%
.500 or above in Conference 62.1% 62.3% 48.3%
Conference Champion 2.7% 2.7% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.9% 6.4%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 6.7%
First Round90.4% 90.6% 79.2%
Second Round68.5% 68.8% 53.4%
Sweet Sixteen34.3% 34.5% 21.3%
Elite Eight14.3% 14.5% 6.7%
Final Four5.7% 5.8% 2.2%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.2%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 98.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 214 - 10
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +20.7 +11.5 +7.7
  Nov 08, 2024 272   Georgia St. W 101-66 97%     2 - 0 +26.1 +17.8 +6.0
  Nov 12, 2024 225   SE Louisiana W 80-59 96%     3 - 0 +14.5 +4.6 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2024 65   Utah W 78-73 73%     4 - 0 +13.1 +6.8 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 41   @ SMU W 84-79 50%     5 - 0 +19.5 +15.8 +3.6
  Nov 28, 2024 106   UNLV W 80-58 83%     6 - 0 +26.4 +13.7 +13.9
  Nov 29, 2024 68   Butler L 77-87 73%     6 - 1 -2.1 +4.4 -6.2
  Dec 04, 2024 30   Pittsburgh W 90-57 66%     7 - 1 +43.3 +24.4 +20.0
  Dec 08, 2024 340   Prairie View W 91-84 99%     8 - 1 -7.3 +10.8 -18.0
  Dec 14, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 66-63 78%     9 - 1 +9.1 +2.1 +7.3
  Dec 17, 2024 237   Central Michigan W 83-59 95%     10 - 1 +19.8 +17.9 +4.1
  Dec 21, 2024 44   @ Memphis W 79-66 51%     11 - 1 +27.2 +9.9 +17.0
  Dec 30, 2024 263   Bethune-Cookman W 84-61 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 62   South Carolina W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 07, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 16   Kentucky W 82-80 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-84 13%    
  Jan 18, 2025 28   Mississippi W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 66-75 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   @ South Carolina W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 9   Alabama L 82-83 49%    
  Feb 01, 2025 54   Missouri W 79-72 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 36   @ Georgia L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 7   Florida L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 28   @ Mississippi L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 18, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   @ Oklahoma L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 79-85 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 56   LSU W 79-71 77%    
  Mar 04, 2025 33   Texas W 75-70 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 31   @ Arkansas L 75-76 45%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.6 1.0 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 5.4 1.9 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.1 3.3 0.2 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 4.6 0.8 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 2.0 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.2 3.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.0 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.2 6.9 10.3 13.3 14.7 14.5 12.7 9.4 5.7 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 95.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 61.9% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 27.6% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 3.1% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.7% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 2.3 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.4% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 2.9 0.6 2.6 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.7% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 3.5 0.2 1.5 4.7 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.5% 100.0% 2.0% 98.0% 4.3 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.8 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 14.7% 99.9% 1.3% 98.6% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.9 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 13.3% 99.5% 1.0% 98.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.8 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
7-11 10.3% 95.6% 0.4% 95.1% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.5 95.6%
6-12 6.9% 75.1% 0.1% 74.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 75.1%
5-13 4.2% 37.9% 0.2% 37.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.2 2.6 37.7%
4-14 2.1% 3.9% 3.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.9%
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 92.1% 3.1% 88.9% 5.1 3.9 9.5 15.5 15.0 13.4 10.8 7.1 5.3 4.7 3.5 3.2 0.2 7.9 91.8%