Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 74
Results Rating +8.0 77
Pace 71.4 99
Improvement +2.7 80

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 85 B- C+ B D+ C-
Defense B- 71 B+ B D- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 268 B+ 65% 43 +0.8 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 175 B- 42% 57 +1.8 83
Three Pointers 41% 169 C 33% 210 -0.2 185
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 256 B- +3.0 81
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 99
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 136 C 1.04 168 C+ 0.33 127
Turnovers B 14.8% 66
Freethrows C- 0.29 232 D 68% 304 D+ 0.20 267
Total Offense B- +3.9 85

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 142 C 10.8% 169
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 317 C 5.5% 214
Three Pointers F 72% 355 D- 1.8% 337
Total D 50% 307 C 5.8% 210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 346 B 53% 67 -6.1 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 15 C+ 37% 131 +2.9 349
Three Pointers 41% 193 B+ 30% 30 -2.7 64
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.6 12 B+ -4.3 36
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.90 33
Second Chance B+ 25.3% 27 C+ 1.01 150 B 0.25 45
Turnovers D- 13.9% 334
Freethrows B 0.26 59 D+ 74% 279 B- 0.20 80
Total Defense B- +3.8 71

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 118 A 19.2% 15
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 194 C 5.2% 150
Three Pointers B- 81% 99 C 1.0% 131
Total B- 51% 85 B 7.8% 40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 80 17.5 215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 94 0.15 89
Improvement +2.7 #69 +0.0 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 91 75 60
Results Rating Rank 99 72 58
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 13 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.3
.500 or above 5% 27% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 9.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 62 - 12
Quad 24 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 310 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 342 North Alabama W 86 - 62 97% +5  80% 1 - 0 B +9 C +1 C- D- A A- +7 A- C C
 Mon, Nov 10 8 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 11% -11  16% 1 - 1 B- +5 A- +10 A A+ F D+ -3 B D+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 287 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 94% +5  69% 2 - 1 C- -3 D- -6 D+ C- D B- +2 B+ A- F+
 Thu, Nov 20 96 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 58% -8  12% 2 - 2 F+ -15 C- -1 C+ F C F -13 F A F
 Fri, Nov 21 47 New Mexico L 78 - 80 36% -2  24% 2 - 3 B +9 B- +5 B D A+ B +4 A- C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 206 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 89% -4  24% 3 - 3 C- -2 D- -6 D A- D- B- +3 B+ B C
 Fri, Nov 28 31 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 34% +1  53% 3 - 4 B- +6 D+ -2 D D+ A+ A +9 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 140 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 64% +8  84% 4 - 4 A- +16 B +7 B- A+ C- A- +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 127 San Francisco L 62 - 65 69% -5  1% 4 - 5 C -1 D -5 D C- A B +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 99 Utah W 82 - 74 60% -6  17% 5 - 5 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ F A- B+ +5 C+ A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 219 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 90% +3  74% 6 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 C A A+ F -10 C- C F
 Sat, Dec 20 101 Memphis W 71 - 66 71% +4  86% 7 - 5 B- +7 C- -0 B- D+ C- A- +7 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 312 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96% +18  96% 8 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +15 B A+ B A +11 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 29 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 17% +1  65% 9 - 5 1 - 0 A +21 A +14 B- A+ B- B+ +6 A- B D
 Wed, Jan 7 52 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 51% +5  71% 10 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +26 C +1 F+ A+ B A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 25 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 15% -4  33% 10 - 6 2 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +3 B+ B+ F F+ -8 C- F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 18 Alabama L 82 - 97 23% -5  41% 10 - 7 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +2 D+ C+ A+ C -1 A- B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 72 Mississippi L 67 - 68 61% +2  58% 10 - 8 2 - 3 C+ +4 D -6 F C A+ A +9 A A F
 Wed, Jan 21 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 18% -10  13% 10 - 9 2 - 4 C- -3 C- -0 B F C+ C- -2 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 16 Vanderbilt L 56 - 88 23% -20  0% 10 - 10 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -16 F+ D+ F+ C+ +1 C B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 53 @LSU W 80 - 66 30% +18  99% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A+ +27 A +12 A+ A- F A+ +16 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 49 @Missouri L 79 - 84 27% -8  3% 11 - 11 3 - 6 B +9 B- +5 B+ F+ D B +4 B A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 17 Arkansas L 68 - 88 23% -12  8% 11 - 12 3 - 7 C- -5 D+ -4 B- D- B C -1 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 11 15 Tennessee L 64 - 73 22% -9  0% 11 - 13 3 - 8 B- +7 D+ -3 B- D B A +9 A A- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 72 @Mississippi W 90 - 78 38% +12  98% 12 - 13 4 - 8 A +23 A+ +19 A+ F+ A+ B- +3 B+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 33 Auburn W 91 - 85 35% +7  82% 13 - 13 5 - 8 A- +18 A+ +21 A+ C A+ D+ -3 A+ D- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 92 @South Carolina L 89 - 97 45% -5  17% 13 - 14 5 - 9 C +1 A+ +15 B- A+ A+ F -14 F A- F
 Wed, Feb 25 18 @Alabama L 81 - 95 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 49 Missouri L 77 - 78 49%
 Tue, Mar 3 4 @Florida L 69 - 88 4%
 Sat, Mar 7 32 Georgia L 82 - 86 36%
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +8 B- +4 C B- C- B- +4 C D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ B- C B- 36% 38% 41% C- B- C+ C C+ B C- D D+ B- B C+ B+ B+ 30% 29% 41% A B+ B+ C+ B D- B D+ B-
1.14 65% 42% 33% +3 0 1.07 32% 1.0 .33 15% .29 68% .20 1.03 53% 37% 30% -4 -2 0.90 25% 1.0 .25 14% .26 74% .22
Nov
5		 North Alabama C A- F C+ C 40% 24% 36% D- C- A F D- A A F B A- A+ C D B- 26% 43% 31% A+ A- A- F C C A+ A A+
1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25 0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12
Nov
10		 Iowa St. A- C- A+ B A 33% 16% 51% B+ A A+ B- A+ F B A A- D+ C F A+ A- 51% 15% 35% F+ B D+ C- D+ D D F F
1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22 1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 SE Louisiana D- A D- C- C- 27% 31% 41% F+ D+ D+ C C- D C+ D- C- B- C- C A+ B 29% 33% 38% A- B+ B+ A+ A- F+ B F D
1.02 71% 31% 33% +1 -2 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 22% .40 70% .28 0.92 59% 37% 18% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .16 14% .28 89% .25
Nov
20		 Kansas St. C- B- A- D- C+ 33% 21% 46% C- C+ D- F F C A A- A+ F F A+ F F 31% 27% 42% A+ F C A+ A F A+ F B+
1.03 59% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 19% .38 78% .29 1.31 84% 24% 50% +14 -1 1.27 32% 0.8 .24 11% .16 91% .15
Nov
21		 New Mexico B- A- B- C B+ 25% 27% 47% D+ B F+ C D A+ F F F B B+ A C A 38% 13% 48% B- A- C- C C C- F C- F
1.08 67% 44% 32% +2 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11 1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30
Nov
24		 New Orleans D- F A+ F D 30% 22% 48% D- D C- A+ A- D- A F D+ B- A+ C+ C- B- 25% 39% 36% A+ B+ C- A- B C A F C+
1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24 1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26
Nov
28		 SMU D+ C- B- F D+ 29% 29% 43% D+ D F A+ D+ A+ A B+ A A A- D A+ A+ 21% 40% 39% A+ A+ A- F F C- D A+ C+
1.01 56% 39% 26% -6 -2 0.87 20% 1.2 .24 9% .34 76% .26 1.09 54% 48% 25% -2 -4 0.90 31% 1.6 .49 14% .33 65% .22
Dec
3		 Georgia Tech B D A+ F B- 35% 23% 42% C B- C- A+ A+ C- A- B+ A A- A+ C- C A+ 35% 29% 37% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F C+ A- B-
1.13 50% 67% 27% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.8 .47 17% .35 77% .27 0.97 32% 39% 35% -8 -1 0.83 31% 0.6 .20 7% .29 65% .19
Dec
7		 San Francisco D A- D- D- D+ 22% 35% 44% F D C+ F+ C- A F F F B F A+ A+ A+ 25% 24% 51% A A+ B F F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 67% 32% 29% -4 -3 0.89 29% 0.9 .27 8% .14 25% .04 1.05 85% 25% 15% -11 -1 0.78 29% 1.7 .50 10% .18 60% .11
Dec
13		 Utah B+ B C- A+ A+ 48% 14% 38% B+ A+ D F F A- F C- F B+ F A- C C 36% 21% 43% B C+ A A+ A+ A- F C- F
1.17 63% 38% 48% +10 +2 1.25 24% 0.6 .15 11% .15 67% .10 1.06 71% 30% 35% +3 0 1.09 25% 0.6 .16 20% .43 75% .32
Dec
16		 LIU Brooklyn B+ C+ D+ B C+ 40% 25% 35% D- C D+ A+ A A+ A+ A A+ F A F C- D 25% 32% 43% A+ C- A+ F C F A+ F A-
1.21 59% 36% 37% +1 -1 1.04 31% 1.5 .47 13% .48 77% .37 1.16 47% 58% 35% +4 -2 1.05 22% 1.5 .32 8% .17 73% .12
Dec
20		 Memphis C- A- C- F C+ 39% 20% 41% B- B- D+ D D+ C- A+ D A- A- A A A A+ 25% 24% 51% B+ A+ D- F+ F A+ C- B C
1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31 0.94 46% 25% 27% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21
Dec
29		 Alabama St. A+ B- A+ B B+ 41% 20% 39% C- B A+ B- A+ B F D+ F A A A A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% A+ A+ A A+ A+ C- F C+ F
1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17 0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40
Jan
3		 Texas A B+ D+ C B- 32% 20% 48% C+ B- A+ A- A+ B- A+ B- A+ B+ F D+ A+ B+ 28% 32% 40% A+ A- A F+ B D F B F
1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32 1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40
Jan
7		 Oklahoma C B- B- F D- 33% 37% 30% F+ F+ A+ B A+ B A+ C- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 22% 39% 39% A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.10 60% 41% 14% -7 -3 0.83 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 71% .35 0.81 40% 39% 17% -14 -4 0.67 31% 0.8 .24 20% .48 64% .30
Jan
10		 Kentucky C+ A+ B F B+ 40% 24% 36% B- B+ B- A B+ F D+ A- C F+ D+ B F+ C- 43% 21% 36% C C- D- F F D+ A+ A A+
0.99 80% 42% 17% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 22% .26 79% .21 1.34 67% 33% 40% +6 0 1.14 42% 1.6 .67 13% .23 64% .15
Jan
13		 Alabama C+ A F D+ C- 25% 36% 39% F+ D+ C+ C C+ A+ A C+ A- C A+ B- D A- 33% 12% 55% B- A- A F B- F F D- F
1.07 65% 21% 31% -6 -3 0.84 29% 0.9 .27 5% .34 68% .23 1.26 47% 43% 38% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.4 .37 7% .46 82% .38
Jan
17		 Mississippi D B F F F 38% 17% 45% B+ F C+ D+ C A+ B+ F C A B- F A+ B+ 16% 59% 25% A+ A B+ A+ A F A+ D- A+
0.96 60% 22% 17% -14 0 0.75 30% 1.0 .30 11% .37 61% .23 0.97 60% 54% 6% -1 -7 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 7% .15 80% .12
Jan
21		 Texas A&M C- B A+ D- B+ 36% 24% 40% C- B C F F C+ D+ F+ D C- A- A+ D+ A 45% 14% 41% B- A A- B- B+ F D F F
0.97 61% 58% 30% +4 -1 1.08 30% 0.5 .14 19% .26 67% .17 1.25 50% 25% 38% -3 +1 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 4% .36 96% .34
Jan
24		 Vanderbilt F D C+ F F+ 26% 25% 49% D+ F+ D C- D+ F+ D+ F F+ C+ F D- A+ C 40% 22% 38% B- C A+ F B C- A+ F A+
0.76 50% 38% 19% -13 -1 0.74 23% 0.9 .20 23% .30 65% .19 1.19 79% 46% 26% +6 0 1.13 17% 2.0 .33 12% .17 91% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 LSU A A F A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B- A+ A+ D+ A- F A B- A A+ B+ F A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F+ D+ A+ A
1.18 67% 22% 50% +10 0 1.23 45% 0.8 .38 24% .39 70% .27 0.97 55% 55% 18% -6 0 0.90 21% 1.3 .26 10% .38 52% .20
Jan
31		 Missouri B- F A+ A A 26% 33% 41% D- B+ B+ F F+ D B- F C- B C- C- C- C+ 22% 27% 51% A+ B B A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 43% 56% 41% +6 -3 1.09 35% 0.4 .14 19% .30 67% .20 1.15 64% 38% 36% +3 -2 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 14% .52 76% .40
Feb
7		 Arkansas D+ B- A+ F B- 49% 25% 25% C+ B- D+ F D- B C- D C- C D+ D D- C 41% 26% 33% B+ C+ B A+ A+ D+ A+ A A+
0.97 59% 50% 14% -4 0 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .24 64% .15 1.25 68% 44% 40% +9 -1 1.18 31% 1.0 .31 10% .19 67% .13
Feb
11		 Tennessee D+ C+ D+ B- B+ 25% 38% 36% F B- D- C- D B F+ F F A D A A A 39% 39% 22% A+ A A+ D A- D+ A- F C+
0.92 57% 33% 35% -1 -3 0.93 18% 0.9 .15 16% .22 54% .12 1.04 65% 30% 27% -3 -2 0.92 35% 1.2 .41 16% .31 83% .25
Feb
14		 Mississippi A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 25% 45% C A+ F D+ F+ A+ B F C- B- F A+ B- B+ 23% 33% 44% C+ B+ A- A A F C- C- D+
1.27 75% 54% 46% +17 -1 1.34 19% 1.0 .19 13% .36 59% .21 1.10 77% 26% 32% -1 -3 0.95 24% 0.9 .21 8% .32 76% .25
Feb
18		 Auburn A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 18% 31% 51% F A+ C- C C A+ C B- C+ D+ A+ A F A 29% 25% 46% A+ A+ C F+ D- D+ F D- F
1.35 80% 29% 54% +16 -3 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 9% .28 76% .21 1.26 33% 31% 42% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.2 .50 12% .52 81% .42
Feb
21		 South Carolina A+ A C F+ C+ 31% 15% 54% B- B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F F A- F F 35% 22% 43% B- F A+ F A- F F+ D- F
1.23 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 35% 1.5 .53 8% .45 57% .26 1.34 74% 33% 52% +16 0 1.33 15% 1.5 .23 8% .41 85% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.7 4.3 1.0 6.0 11th
12th 17.9 42.9 17.4 0.5 78.6 12th
13th 10.0 2.3 12.3 13th
14th 1.5 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 29.4 45.9 21.8 2.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 17.2% 17.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.2%
8-10 2.7% 1.5% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.5%
7-11 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 21.8 0.0%
6-12 45.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.9
5-13 29.4% 29.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.2 99.9 0.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 17.5%