Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.0 #119
Expected Predictive Rating +3.2 #111
Pace 65.6 #263
Improvement -1.5 #251

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #167 C+ C D- B- B-
Defense #88 C C A- D+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.21 #109 +2.4 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.84 #61 -1.4 #253
Three Pointers 44% #122 0.96 #255 +0.4 #162
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #132 +1.4 #132
Freethrows 0.34 #64 72% #199 0.24 #85
Second Chance 33.4% #103 0.94 #293 0.31 #173
Turnovers 19.5% #336
Total Offense -0.1 #167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #130 1.08 #82 +0.5 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #266 0.64 #21 +2.0 #44
Three Pointers 42% #160 1.10 #296 -2.1 #280
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #164 +0.4 #165
Freethrows 0.35 #311 70% #73 0.24 #291
Second Chance 31.1% #198 1.04 #199 0.32 #201
Turnovers 21.2% #13
Total Defense +3.1 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #69 1.0% #265
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.1% #155 -1.8% #146
Possession Length 17.7 #219 17.9 #281
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #37 0.14 #94
Improvement -1.5 #274 +0.1 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 11.9
.500 or above 93.0% 97.2% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 65.5% 34.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 54 - 8
Quad 36 - 410 - 12
Quad 49 - 319 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 329 Stetson W 93 - 62 93% +17  1 - 0 +18 +9 C+ A+ D- +7 B- B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 69 Tulsa L 65 - 82 31% -9  1 - 1 -9 -4 C- B- F -7 C+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 328 Stonehill W 80 - 57 93% +12  2 - 1 +10 +5 C+ C D- +4 B+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 14 316 Albany W 80 - 61 92% +6  3 - 1 +6 +6 D- A- C +2 A+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 80 @Yale W 86 - 77 25% +0  4 - 1 +19 +19 A+ B C- +1 A- F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 155 Towson L 55 - 62 62% -2  4 - 2 -7 -8 F A+ F -0 C- B+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 211 Vermont W 80 - 65 72% +7  5 - 2 +12 +12 B B+ F +1 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 143 Temple W 90 - 75 57% +7  6 - 2 +16 +17 A+ C- A+ -1 C+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 280 Brown W 66 - 56 88% +4  7 - 2 +0 -3 D- B D- +4 A+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 67 @Providence L 71 - 90 21% -5  7 - 3 -8 -0 A+ F F -7 F C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 85 McNeese St. L 64 - 66 47% -2  7 - 4 +2 -7 B D- F +8 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 16 345 Canisius W 62 - 45 94% +3  8 - 4 +2 -10 F+ F F +14 B+ A A+
 Mon, Dec 22 256 Northeastern W 85 - 77 86% +6  9 - 4 -0 +12 B+ A C+ -12 F B B
 Wed, Dec 31 279 Loyola Chicago L 57 - 61 88% -7  9 - 5 0 - 1 -14 -18 F C- F +4 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 84 @George Mason L 50 - 61 26% -4  9 - 6 0 - 2 -1 -12 C- F F +10 C+ A C-
 Wed, Jan 7 214 La Salle L 72 - 79 80% -2  9 - 7 0 - 3 -13 +4 B- C+ F -17 F F B
 Sat, Jan 10 117 @Davidson W 70 - 45 38% +14  10 - 7 1 - 3 +31 +12 A+ F B- +23 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 84 33% -8  10 - 8 1 - 4 -2 +7 A F D -9 C D+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 136 @Richmond W 69 - 68 44% -2  11 - 8 2 - 4 +6 -1 D C- F +7 C- B A-
 Sat, Jan 24 84 George Mason W 74 - 65 47% +5  12 - 8 3 - 4 +13 +15 C+ B- A+ -1 B+ D- C
 Tue, Jan 27 88 @Dayton W 81 - 76 OT 27% -3  13 - 8 4 - 4 +14 +10 C D B+ +4 F B+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 113 @Duquesne L 61 - 76 37% -8  13 - 9 4 - 5 -9 -4 C D+ D- -6 D D B+
 Sat, Feb 7 136 Richmond W 73 - 69 67%
 Tue, Feb 10 79 @George Washington L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 169 Fordham W 69 - 62 74%
 Tue, Feb 17 24 Saint Louis L 69 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 @La Salle W 69 - 66 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 141 @St. Bonaventure L 71 - 72 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 Saint Joseph's W 70 - 66 65%
 Wed, Mar 4 113 Duquesne W 75 - 72 60%
 Sat, Mar 7 169 @Fordham W 66 - 65 53%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +3 +0 C+ C D- +3 C C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 5.0 1.0 0.1 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.4 7.9 2.7 0.1 13.0 5th
6th 0.9 8.4 6.1 0.3 15.7 6th
7th 0.1 5.6 9.9 1.5 0.0 17.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.9 10.3 3.2 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.3 5.8 5.3 0.2 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 2.1 4.9 0.5 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.3 2.9 1.1 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.3 1.6 6.7 13.8 22.6 24.3 18.8 9.3 2.3 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.3% 4.7% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 2.3% 3.3% 3.3% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 9.3% 2.6% 2.6% 11.5 0.1 0.1 9.0
10-8 18.8% 1.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 18.5
9-9 24.3% 1.4% 1.4% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 24.0
8-10 22.6% 0.7% 0.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.5
7-11 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 13.8
6-12 6.7% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 1.6% 1.6
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 11.9 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%