Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.6 #115
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #106
Pace 70.0 #163
Improvement -2.2 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #83 B+ D- C A D-
Defense #169 C+ D+ C B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.29 #60 -1.2 #227
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #73 0.76 #168 +2.3 #69
Three Pointers 41% #177 1.22 #8 +4.4 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #49 +5.5 #48
Freethrows 21.1 #26 76% #73 16.0 #20
Second Chance 28.1% #253 0.87 #343 0.24 #319
Turnovers 16.2% #152
Total Offense +3.8 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #354 1.24 #275 +4.9 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #62 0.80 #246 -2.3 #330
Three Pointers 47% #39 0.92 #71 -0.8 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +1.8 #123
Freethrows 16.1 #121 68% #39 11.0 #287
Second Chance 28.7% #109 1.23 #344 0.35 #258
Turnovers 17.2% #145
Total Defense -0.1 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #313 -2.6% #25
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.3% #22 -1.0% #162
Possession Length 17.0 #146 17.2 #174
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #34 0.16 #119
Improvement +0.9 #122 -3.1 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 12.0
.500 or above 95.2% 97.1% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 74.6% 48.1%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 2.4% 1.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Joseph's (Home) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 511 - 11
Quad 49 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 266 East Carolina W 87 - 72 88%  +10  1 - 0 +6 +8 A- F A- -2 C+ C D-
 Tue, Nov 11 127 William & Mary W 90 - 86 68%  +1  2 - 0 +3 +9 D- A+ C+ -6 A D+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 332 VMI W 87 - 54 94%  +21  3 - 0 +19 +11 A+ F B- +10 C D A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 97%  +28  4 - 0 +16 +13 B+ C- B+ +1 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 27 150 Furman L 72 - 73 62%  -6  4 - 1 -1 +0 B F F -1 C+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 166 Charlotte W 71 - 66 66%  +8  5 - 1 +4 +0 C+ D- D +4 B A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 73 @Belmont W 84 - 76 24%  -0  6 - 1 +19 +11 A+ F C+ +8 A+ D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 250 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 86%  +4  7 - 1 +1 +3 C- C A+ -3 B+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 13 130 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 68%  +2  8 - 1 +8 +3 A+ F B+ +3 A+ D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 163 @Elon L 70 - 73 54%  +2  8 - 2 -1 -1 B+ C+ F +0 C- A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 360 The Citadel W 80 - 56 97%  +11  9 - 2 +6 +2 B F B- +6 C B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 28 225 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 83%  -4  9 - 3 -12 -6 C F C- -6 B D- C
 Wed, Dec 31 70 George Washington L 85 - 99 44%  -10  9 - 4 0 - 1 -9 +17 A+ D A+ -27 F F D
 Sun, Jan 4 203 @Fordham W 83 - 75 62%  +2  10 - 4 1 - 1 +9 +20 A+ C+ A+ -11 D F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 119 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 42%  +7  11 - 4 2 - 1 +15 +18 A- C B -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 185 Saint Joseph's W 79 - 71 78% 
 Wed, Jan 14 217 La Salle W 79 - 69 82% 
 Sat, Jan 17 29 @Saint Louis L 74 - 88 10% 
 Wed, Jan 21 141 Rhode Island W 76 - 70 70% 
 Sat, Jan 24 70 @George Washington L 78 - 86 24% 
 Tue, Jan 27 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 84 17% 
 Sat, Jan 31 125 Davidson W 75 - 70 67% 
 Sat, Feb 7 141 @Rhode Island L 73 - 74 49% 
 Tue, Feb 10 92 George Mason W 74 - 73 52% 
 Sat, Feb 14 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 77 - 81 36% 
 Wed, Feb 18 125 @Davidson L 72 - 73 44% 
 Sat, Feb 21 119 St. Bonaventure W 78 - 74 65% 
 Sat, Feb 28 251 @Loyola Chicago W 78 - 72 70% 
 Tue, Mar 3 75 Dayton L 74 - 75 46% 
 Sat, Mar 7 129 @Duquesne L 81 - 82 46% 
Totals 19 - 11 10 - 8 +4 +4 B+ D- C +0 C+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.4 4.4 0.7 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.2 6.2 1.4 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.9 7.8 2.1 0.1 16.5 6th
7th 0.4 4.5 7.4 2.6 0.1 15.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 5.9 2.9 0.2 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 2.2 0.4 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.1 9.1 14.2 17.6 18.0 14.8 10.2 5.5 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 82.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 52.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 19.1% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 27.6% 27.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 11.9% 11.0% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0%
14-4 2.1% 10.0% 9.8% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.3%
13-5 5.5% 6.9% 6.9% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.1
12-6 10.2% 4.5% 4.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.7
11-7 14.8% 2.7% 2.7% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.4
10-8 18.0% 1.9% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.6
9-9 17.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 17.3
8-10 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.1
7-11 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 5.1
5-13 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 11.6 97.7 0.0%