Richmond
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #136
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 #155
Pace 68.0 #206
Improvement -5.3 #347

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #119 C+ D+ B- B- D-
Defense #177 C+ D+ C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.24 #84 -3.6 #301
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #43 0.76 #162 +3.1 #45
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.15 #25 +2.9 #78
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.5 #105
Freethrows 0.33 #97 76% #72 0.25 #75
Second Chance 27.6% #273 0.96 #265 0.27 #280
Turnovers 15.0% #79
Total Offense +1.9 #119

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #352 1.22 #268 +4.3 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #49 0.77 #218 -2.1 #328
Three Pointers 45% #65 0.94 #75 -0.4 #199
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #115 +1.8 #117
Freethrows 0.27 #77 70% #75 0.19 #71
Second Chance 30.0% #151 1.17 #334 0.35 #275
Turnovers 16.3% #203
Total Defense -0.3 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #341 -2.5% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.4% #61 -1.2% #165
Possession Length 17.2 #160 17.5 #227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #52 0.15 #111
Improvement -2.4 #313 -2.9 #324

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 12.7
.500 or above 65.0% 83.3% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 8.2% 16.8% 3.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 0.6% 4.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 79 - 13
Quad 47 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 247 East Carolina W 87 - 72 81% +10  1 - 0 +7 +8 B F B+ -2 C C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 150 William & Mary W 90 - 86 65% +1  2 - 0 +2 +7 F A+ C+ -6 A- D F
 Wed, Nov 19 356 VMI W 87 - 54 95% +21  3 - 0 +16 +9 A F+ B- +8 C D A+
 Sat, Nov 22 363 Gardner-Webb W 102 - 67 97% +28  4 - 0 +14 +12 B+ C B- -1 F+ B- B-
 Thu, Nov 27 164 Furman L 72 - 73 57% -6  4 - 1 -1 +0 B- F F -1 C F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 157 Charlotte W 71 - 66 56% +8  5 - 1 +5 -0 C+ D D+ +6 A- A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 74 @Belmont W 84 - 76 19% -0  6 - 1 +19 +10 A+ F B- +8 A+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 243 Old Dominion W 86 - 77 81% +4  7 - 1 +1 +4 C- C+ A+ -3 B C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 137 Southern Illinois W 93 - 84 OT 62% +2  8 - 1 +7 +4 A F A- +1 A F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 192 @Elon L 70 - 73 53% +2  8 - 2 -2 -1 B C+ F -1 D+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 344 The Citadel W 80 - 56 93% +11  9 - 2 +9 +6 B+ F B +5 C C A+
 Sun, Dec 28 246 Charleston Southern L 72 - 77 81% -4  9 - 3 -13 -6 C F C- -7 B- D- C
 Wed, Dec 31 79 George Washington L 85 - 99 40% -10  9 - 4 0 - 1 -10 +18 A+ D+ A+ -28 F F D+
 Sun, Jan 4 169 @Fordham W 83 - 75 47% +2  10 - 4 1 - 1 +10 +21 A+ C+ A+ -10 D+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 141 @St. Bonaventure W 89 - 80 40% +7  11 - 4 2 - 1 +13 +17 B- B A- -4 A F F
 Sun, Jan 11 132 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 67 60% -8  11 - 5 2 - 2 -3 -5 D- F+ A+ +2 C+ B- D+
 Wed, Jan 14 214 La Salle W 74 - 53 77% +8  12 - 5 3 - 2 +15 +3 B- F A+ +13 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 24 @Saint Louis L 63 - 88 6% -19  12 - 6 3 - 3 -6 +0 D- B B- -6 B B D-
 Wed, Jan 21 119 Rhode Island L 68 - 69 56% +2  12 - 7 3 - 4 -1 -2 B F+ B +1 A- C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 79 @George Washington L 69 - 85 21% -16  12 - 8 3 - 5 -6 +2 C- D- B- -9 C F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 50 @Virginia Commonwealth L 69 - 77 14% -8  12 - 9 3 - 6 +5 +11 C- A+ B -7 C C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 117 Davidson L 54 - 79 55% -17  12 - 10 3 - 7 -25 -6 F A+ C+ -24 D- F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 119 @Rhode Island L 69 - 73 33%
 Tue, Feb 10 84 George Mason L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 50 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 81 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 117 @Davidson L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 141 St. Bonaventure W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 @Loyola Chicago W 77 - 72 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 88 Dayton L 72 - 74 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 113 @Duquesne L 75 - 80 33%
Totals 15 - 15 6 - 12 +2 +2 C+ D+ B- +0 C+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.5 2.3 0.5 3.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 2.4 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 6.1 0.9 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 9.0 4.6 0.1 14.6 9th
10th 0.8 8.1 10.3 0.8 0.0 20.0 10th
11th 0.4 5.7 11.8 3.1 0.1 21.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.6 8.7 4.1 0.2 15.6 12th
13th 1.0 4.4 2.9 0.3 8.5 13th
14th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 1.5 7.6 18.2 25.1 24.4 15.0 6.4 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 11.8% 11.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 6.4% 0.9% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 6.4
8-10 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 12.5 0.1 0.0 14.9
7-11 24.4% 0.5% 0.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 24.3
6-12 25.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.1 25.1
5-13 18.2% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 18.1
4-14 7.6% 7.6
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 12.7 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%