Utah
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#65
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#125
Pace74.7#50
Improvement-2.7#315

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#67
First Shot+1.6#125
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#40
Layup/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#113
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement-1.6#296

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#78
First Shot+2.9#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#89
Layups/Dunks+2.8#74
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
Freethrows-0.4#215
Improvement-1.0#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 1.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 23.8% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.8% 23.3% 8.5%
Average Seed 9.4 9.0 9.5
.500 or above 49.5% 72.7% 45.3%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 42.3% 18.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 4.3% 14.0%
First Four2.9% 4.8% 2.6%
First Round9.5% 21.1% 7.4%
Second Round4.2% 9.9% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.7% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 15.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 23 - 46 - 16
Quad 32 - 18 - 16
Quad 48 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 100-59 97%     1 - 0 +26.9 +25.1 +4.2
  Nov 07, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 98-63 97%     2 - 0 +20.8 +10.2 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 264   Queens W 96-65 93%     3 - 0 +22.4 +10.7 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2024 24   Mississippi St. L 73-78 27%     3 - 1 +9.4 +4.1 +5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 84-53 94%     4 - 1 +21.3 -1.4 +20.0
  Nov 26, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 94-48 99%     5 - 1 +20.5 +17.5 +6.1
  Nov 30, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 88-80 93%     6 - 1 -0.1 +9.8 -9.7
  Dec 07, 2024 53   St. Mary's L 63-72 53%     6 - 2 -1.7 -5.2 +3.4
  Dec 14, 2024 214   Radford W 81-63 90%     7 - 2 +12.3 +5.9 +6.8
  Dec 17, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 89-59 98%     8 - 2 +13.4 +9.9 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 43   Iowa L 88-95 38%     8 - 3 +4.4 +8.2 -3.0
  Dec 31, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 71-82 15%    
  Jan 04, 2025 18   Texas Tech L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 07, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 72-86 9%    
  Jan 11, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 82-76 70%    
  Jan 15, 2025 66   @ TCU L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 42   BYU L 78-79 49%    
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Houston L 61-76 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 12   Baylor L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 28, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 76   Colorado W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 11, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 8   Kansas L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 17, 2025 84   Kansas St. W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 23, 2025 81   @ Central Florida L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 74-85 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 59   Arizona St. W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 39   West Virginia L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 42   @ BYU L 76-82 29%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.6 1.8 0.1 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 5.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.5 0.9 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.6 1.8 0.1 11.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.9 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.2 7.2 10.5 13.1 14.6 13.9 11.7 9.1 6.0 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 70.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 47.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 13.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 97.0% 9.0% 88.1% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
15-5 0.4% 98.4% 7.9% 90.5% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
14-6 0.9% 94.2% 2.9% 91.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.0%
13-7 2.0% 85.6% 2.2% 83.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 85.3%
12-8 3.8% 67.2% 1.2% 66.1% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 66.8%
11-9 6.0% 47.1% 0.8% 46.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.0 3.2 46.7%
10-10 9.1% 21.1% 0.5% 20.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.1 7.1 20.7%
9-11 11.7% 5.0% 0.3% 4.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.1 4.7%
8-12 13.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.8 0.6%
7-13 14.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 14.6 0.1%
6-14 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 13.1
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 7.2% 7.2
3-17 4.2% 4.2
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 11.0% 0.3% 10.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.7 0.2 89.0 10.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%