Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.2 #117
Expected Predictive Rating +2.7 #126
Pace 70.9 #134
Improvement +0.4 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #89 B C- B B B
Defense #175 C C D+ B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #44 1.21 #122 +4.6 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #236 0.69 #263 -1.6 #256
Three Pointers 38% #248 1.14 #32 +0.8 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #84 +3.8 #82
Freethrows 19.0 #96 75% #97 14.3 #83
Second Chance 31.2% #168 0.97 #267 0.30 #218
Turnovers 14.9% #75
Total Offense +3.5 #89

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #63 1.17 #188 -3.0 #277
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #162 0.74 #160 -0.1 #186
Three Pointers 36% #316 1.00 #171 +2.9 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.2 #184
Freethrows 15.7 #101 69% #55 10.8 #297
Second Chance 29.4% #132 1.08 #228 0.32 #173
Turnovers 15.0% #282
Total Defense -0.3 #175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #78 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.7% #94 -0.1% #177
Possession Length 16.9 #145 16.6 #82
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #89 0.16 #121
Improvement +0.3 #161 +0.0 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.1 10.8
.500 or above 2.3% 7.1% 1.8%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 2.4% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.1% 35.1% 62.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Home) - 9.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 23 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 16 - 19
Quad 45 - 112 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 221 San Jose St. W 84 - 75 81%  +5  1 - 0 +3 +6 B+ D- A+ -4 C- A- C-
 Sat, Nov 8 212 Weber St. W 92 - 89 OT 81%  -3  2 - 0 -3 -2 F B+ C -2 A F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 326 Holy Cross W 87 - 69 93%  +9  3 - 0 +5 +9 C+ C- A+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 134 Sam Houston St. W 85 - 79 67%  +9  4 - 0 +5 +6 B+ D- F -2 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 77 85%  +9  5 - 0 +0 +13 A+ F A -12 F D C
 Thu, Nov 20 253 Cal Poly L 85 - 92 86%  -7  5 - 1 -15 -5 C+ F F -9 F C- B-
 Tue, Nov 25 83 Grand Canyon L 58 - 68 36%  -6  5 - 2 -3 -7 C C D- +3 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 71 Mississippi W 75 - 74 32%  +3  6 - 2 +9 +12 A+ F D -3 D- F A
 Tue, Dec 2 84 @California L 72 - 79 26%  -1  6 - 3 +3 +6 B- C B+ -3 C D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 147 California Baptist W 91 - 85 70%  +4  7 - 3 +4 +17 B A+ A- -13 C+ F D+
 Sat, Dec 13 55 Mississippi St. L 74 - 82 27%  +6  7 - 4 +2 +6 A+ F F -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 255 Eastern Washington W 101 - 77 86%  +11  8 - 4 +16 +20 A+ A- A+ -5 A- C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 47 @Washington L 65 - 74 16%  -3  8 - 5 +5 -0 D A- C- +5 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Arizona L 78 - 97 6%  -15  8 - 6 0 - 1 +2 +10 B A- A- -7 B- C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 77 @Colorado L 73 - 85 24%  -6  8 - 7 0 - 2 -1 +3 F B A+ -4 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 8 BYU L 73 - 87 9% 
 Wed, Jan 14 17 @Texas Tech L 70 - 86 6% 
 Sat, Jan 17 44 TCU L 72 - 78 30% 
 Tue, Jan 20 74 @Kansas St. L 80 - 88 24% 
 Sat, Jan 24 8 @BYU L 70 - 90 3% 
 Sat, Jan 31 54 Oklahoma St. L 83 - 87 37% 
 Wed, Feb 4 88 Arizona St. L 80 - 81 48% 
 Sat, Feb 7 18 @Kansas L 68 - 84 6% 
 Tue, Feb 10 11 Houston L 65 - 78 11% 
 Sun, Feb 15 58 @Cincinnati L 69 - 78 20% 
 Wed, Feb 18 67 @West Virginia L 67 - 76 21% 
 Sat, Feb 21 50 Central Florida L 79 - 83 35% 
 Tue, Feb 24 3 Iowa St. L 68 - 85 6% 
 Sat, Feb 28 88 @Arizona St. L 77 - 83 28% 
 Tue, Mar 3 77 Colorado L 81 - 82 45% 
 Sat, Mar 7 32 @Baylor L 73 - 87 11% 
Totals 11 - 20 3 - 15 +3 +4 B C- B +0 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 2.2 10th
11th 0.3 2.1 1.1 0.1 3.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 3.1 0.3 5.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 4.7 1.7 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.7 6.8 4.1 0.4 13.0 14th
15th 0.2 2.9 9.1 8.1 1.3 0.0 21.6 15th
16th 3.7 11.0 15.9 10.5 2.5 0.1 43.6 16th
Total 3.7 11.2 18.8 21.4 18.9 12.4 7.9 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 31.8% 31.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 31.8%
9-9 0.4% 7.1% 7.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.1%
8-10 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.3%
7-11 3.7% 3.7
6-12 7.9% 7.9
5-13 12.4% 12.4
4-14 18.9% 18.9
3-15 21.4% 21.4
2-16 18.8% 18.8
1-17 11.2% 11.2
0-18 3.7% 3.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.5 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.7%