Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 99
Results Rating +3.2 114
Pace 68.2 188
Improvement +2.9 70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 84 B C C+ C+ B-
Defense C+ 139 C+ B- D+ B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 64 C+ 60% 133 +3.2 71
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 210 C 39% 151 -0.5 208
Three Pointers 38% 239 B+ 39% 23 +1.3 141
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.5 110 B +3.3 75
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 72
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 145 C- 0.98 253 C 0.31 172
Turnovers C+ 15.8% 114
Freethrows C 0.31 178 C+ 74% 132 C+ 0.23 150
Total Offense B- +3.9 84

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 247 C 10.8% 168
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 169 D 7.7% 322
Three Pointers B- 88% 110 D 1.4% 307
Total C 55% 190 D+ 6.6% 288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 73 C+ 57% 152 +2.1 249
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 149 C- 40% 255 +0.6 240
Three Pointers 36% 320 B- 32% 92 -3.7 40
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 213 C+ -1.2 130
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 138
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 107 C+ 0.99 125 B- 0.28 99
Turnovers D+ 15.1% 282
Freethrows B 0.26 55 B+ 69% 24 B+ 0.18 34
Total Defense C+ +1.2 139

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 29 C+ 12.1% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 274 D+ 3.3% 273
Three Pointers B- 81% 97 B- 1.3% 89
Total B 48% 41 C+ 6.3% 123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 212 17.0 127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 106 0.14 79
Improvement -0.5 #219 +3.5 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 111 100 86
Results Rating Rank 145 112 97
Conference Record 2 - 16 3 - 15 5 - 13
Conference Finish 16 15 14
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 n/a 13.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 71% 39% 75%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 12
Quad 22 - 64 - 18
Quad 32 - 16 - 19
Quad 45 - 111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 218 San Jose St. W 84 - 75 86% +5  83% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +3 B+ D+ B C -1 C- B+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 211 Weber St. W 92 - 89 OT 84% -3  29% 2 - 0 C- -3 D -5 F A- C+ B- +2 A- F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 327 Holy Cross W 87 - 69 95% +9  89% 3 - 0 C+ +4 B +6 B D A C -1 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 114 Sam Houston St. W 85 - 79 69% +9  94% 4 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 B+ D F+ C+ +1 B A F+
 Tue, Nov 18 261 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 77 90% +9  97% 5 - 0 C -1 A- +10 A F B+ F -10 D- C- C
 Thu, Nov 20 231 Cal Poly L 85 - 92 86% -7  5% 5 - 1 D- -14 F+ -9 C F D- D+ -4 F C B-
 Tue, Nov 25 62 Grand Canyon L 58 - 68 36% -6  3% 5 - 2 C -1 D- -7 C- B D- B+ +6 A+ A F
 Wed, Nov 26 72 Mississippi W 75 - 74 40% +3  58% 6 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 A+ F D+ C -0 D+ D- A-
 Tue, Dec 2 70 @California L 72 - 79 27% -1  28% 6 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 B C- B- C+ +0 C+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 138 California Baptist W 91 - 85 74% +4  96% 7 - 3 C+ +4 A+ +17 B+ A B F -12 B- F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 74 Mississippi St. L 74 - 82 40% +6  73% 7 - 4 C -0 C+ +3 A D- F C- -3 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 186 Eastern Washington W 101 - 77 82% +11  94% 8 - 4 A +19 A+ +20 A+ A- B C -1 B+ B- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 48 @Washington L 65 - 74 19% -3  13% 8 - 5 B- +5 C- -2 D+ B+ D+ A- +7 C+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Arizona L 78 - 97 7% -15  1% 8 - 6 0 - 1 C+ +3 B+ +8 B B+ B+ D+ -4 C+ D D
 Wed, Jan 7 66 @Colorado L 73 - 85 27% -6  1% 8 - 7 0 - 2 C -0 C +2 F+ B A+ C- -2 C+ C- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 20 BYU L 84 - 89 18% -4  16% 8 - 8 0 - 3 B +10 B+ +9 B A- A C+ +1 A- D+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 14 @Texas Tech L 74 - 88 7% -11  1% 8 - 9 0 - 4 B- +8 B +7 A D+ C- C+ +1 D+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 50 TCU W 82 - 79 39% +6  96% 9 - 9 1 - 4 B +11 A +14 A+ B+ B- D+ -3 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 96 @Kansas St. L 78 - 81 36% -2  29% 9 - 10 1 - 5 B- +6 B +7 A- C- A+ C- -2 F+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 20 @BYU L 78 - 91 8% -6  1% 9 - 11 1 - 6 B- +8 A+ +17 A+ F A+ F -10 B- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 68 Oklahoma St. L 69 - 81 49% -1  29% 9 - 12 1 - 7 D+ -7 D+ -3 C- F A+ D+ -4 C- C D-
 Wed, Feb 4 60 Arizona St. L 63 - 71 47% -10  1% 9 - 13 1 - 8 C- -2 D -4 F+ A C- C+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 21 @Kansas L 59 - 71 8% -6  10% 9 - 14 1 - 9 B +9 D+ -2 B F+ D- A +11 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 10 6 Houston L 52 - 66 10% -12  1% 9 - 15 1 - 10 B- +5 D -4 C+ D- C+ A- +7 B B+ D-
 Sun, Feb 15 43 @Cincinnati L 65 - 69 17% -2  23% 9 - 16 1 - 11 B+ +11 B+ +8 C- A+ C- B- +3 A C- F
 Wed, Feb 18 55 @West Virginia W 61 - 56 23% +9  99% 10 - 16 2 - 11 A +18 B- +5 C+ C+ C- A+ +14 B A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 51 Central Florida L 71 - 73 41% -2  25% 10 - 17 2 - 12 B- +6 B +6 C A+ C C -0 F A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 24 8 Iowa St. L 68 - 81 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 60 @Arizona St. L 74 - 81 26%
 Tue, Mar 3 66 Colorado L 78 - 79 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 44 @Baylor L 74 - 83 18%
Totals 11 - 20 3 - 15 +5 B- +4 A B B- C+ +1 B+ C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C B+ B 43% 35% 38% B- B C+ C- C C+ C C+ C+ C+ C+ C- B- C+ 43% 21% 36% C- C+ C+ C+ B- D+ B B+ B+
1.14 60% 39% 39% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.0 .31 16% .31 74% .23 1.07 57% 40% 32% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .28 15% .26 69% .21
Nov
3		 San Jose St. C+ B+ F A+ B+ 45% 14% 41% B- B+ C+ F+ D+ B B- F C- C D A C+ C+ 47% 20% 33% F C- C A B+ C D+ A+ A-
1.20 70% 14% 43% +7 +1 1.20 36% 1.0 .36 16% .32 63% .20 1.07 62% 27% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 0.8 .28 16% .30 50% .15
Nov
8		 Weber St. D F F F F 52% 8% 40% A- F B+ B A- C+ A+ F A- B- C+ A+ A+ A 60% 12% 28% F A- D- F F B- D- A+ C
1.08 50% 20% 24% -12 +3 0.84 35% 1.2 .43 15% .44 66% .29 1.04 54% 14% 25% -9 +3 0.90 36% 1.2 .43 18% .40 61% .24
Nov
10		 Holy Cross B A- A C- B- 44% 11% 44% B B D- C D A B- A- B+ C A+ F C C 32% 23% 45% D+ C A F C+ F F+ A+ B+
1.26 71% 50% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.1 .27 9% .30 79% .24 1.00 41% 58% 33% -1 -1 0.98 13% 1.4 .18 12% .34 48% .16
Nov
15		 Sam Houston St. B- D+ A+ B B 48% 6% 46% A+ B+ A+ F D F+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A F+ C- B 46% 18% 36% D+ B A A- A F+ A- F B-
1.15 57% 67% 36% +3 +3 1.13 43% 0.6 .24 20% .51 80% .41 1.07 46% 45% 36% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 14% .20 85% .17
Nov
18		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A- D+ A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C A C F F B+ A- B A F F+ A+ D D- 45% 11% 44% D- D- F A+ C- C A+ D- A
1.28 71% 33% 46% +13 +1 1.31 34% 0.7 .24 17% .34 79% .27 1.16 68% 17% 38% +4 +2 1.15 34% 0.7 .23 15% .14 75% .11
Nov
20		 Cal Poly F+ D+ C+ C D+ 47% 8% 45% A- C F D+ F D- B A+ A- D+ A C- F F 56% 6% 38% F F B- D- C B- F A+ D
1.02 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.05 16% 1.0 .16 19% .33 82% .27 1.10 45% 33% 60% +7 +3 1.23 28% 1.1 .31 23% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Grand Canyon D- D F C- D 50% 19% 31% A C- C A+ B D- B- F D+ B+ F A+ A+ A+ 44% 36% 20% A+ A+ A+ B A F F A F
0.86 48% 25% 31% -9 +1 0.86 26% 1.4 .35 21% .34 61% .21 1.01 73% 17% 0% -11 -2 0.76 24% 1.0 .24 9% .52 69% .36
Nov
26		 Mississippi B+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 28% 37% C- A+ B F F D+ A- B+ A C F D- A+ D- 30% 43% 26% B+ D+ F C D- A- C- F+ D+
1.15 75% 23% 53% +12 -1 1.24 33% 0.4 .13 20% .38 75% .29 1.13 86% 45% 25% +8 -4 1.11 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 82% .26
Dec
2		 California B- B- D C- B- 41% 11% 48% B+ B C- C+ C- B- B- A B+ C+ C+ F C C+ 38% 28% 34% C+ C+ C+ F D+ C F+ F F
1.06 59% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 74% .24 1.16 58% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 15% .41 92% .38
Dec
6		 California Baptist A+ C A+ C B+ 41% 22% 37% C B+ B- A+ A B A+ B+ A+ F D A+ A- C+ 42% 25% 34% B+ B- F F F C- D+ A C+
1.29 55% 55% 33% +2 0 1.06 29% 1.3 .38 13% .60 78% .47 1.20 59% 23% 28% -6 0 0.89 53% 1.3 .72 17% .32 63% .20
Dec
13		 Mississippi St. C+ A+ F+ B- A 36% 21% 43% B+ A C F D- F A+ C+ A+ C- C- B- F F 48% 14% 38% F F A A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A+
1.06 71% 30% 35% +3 0 1.09 25% 0.6 .16 20% .43 75% .32 1.17 63% 38% 48% +10 +2 1.25 24% 0.6 .15 11% .15 67% .10
Dec
20		 Eastern Washington A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 40% B- A+ F+ A+ A- B D D- F+ C C A+ B- B+ 35% 25% 40% B- B+ F A+ B- F+ C- A- C+
1.43 83% 43% 52% +23 +1 1.52 24% 2.0 .48 14% .28 71% .20 1.09 57% 27% 33% -4 -1 0.93 41% 0.7 .30 14% .31 68% .21
Dec
29		 Washington C- C+ F+ C- C- 23% 40% 37% F D+ A- B- B+ D+ C- F D A- D F A+ C+ 36% 34% 30% B C+ A+ F A+ C- D- F F
0.95 58% 29% 32% -5 -4 0.85 33% 1.1 .36 17% .25 57% .14 1.08 67% 59% 20% +4 -2 1.06 15% 1.5 .23 15% .34 85% .29
Jan
3		 Arizona B+ D+ A+ F B- 49% 25% 25% A B B- A+ B+ B+ F+ A+ C D+ C+ F D+ B 53% 20% 27% F C+ C- D D D B+ D+ B
1.03 48% 50% 25% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.1 .28 16% .19 92% .17 1.28 61% 50% 38% +6 +1 1.15 41% 1.1 .44 12% .31 76% .24
Jan
7		 Colorado C F+ C- F F 53% 30% 17% C+ F+ B+ C B A+ A- D+ B+ C- C+ F B B- 44% 12% 44% F+ C+ F+ B+ C- B- D+ F F
1.04 46% 38% 22% -9 0 0.83 33% 1.1 .36 10% .37 70% .25 1.22 59% 67% 32% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.8 .32 16% .36 90% .32
Jan
10		 BYU B+ C+ B D B 39% 30% 30% B B B- A+ A- A A A+ A+ C+ C F A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% F A- D C D+ B- F A+ F+
1.14 59% 41% 29% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.4 .40 12% .33 86% .28 1.21 64% 67% 22% -2 +2 1.02 41% 1.2 .49 15% .46 66% .30
Jan
14		 Texas Tech B C+ F A+ A 36% 23% 42% A- A D- B- D+ C- C+ B B- C+ C+ F F+ D 26% 24% 50% B D+ C- C- D+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.03 58% 8% 50% +3 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 18% .29 71% .20 1.23 60% 64% 41% +12 -1 1.24 37% 1.1 .40 15% .08 60% .05
Jan
17		 TCU A A B+ A- A+ 36% 18% 46% C+ A+ A+ F+ B+ B- A+ F A- D+ F B A D 61% 18% 22% F D- A A+ A+ F+ C- B- C
1.20 67% 44% 39% +8 0 1.18 40% 0.9 .34 19% .40 59% .23 1.15 71% 33% 27% +5 +2 1.16 28% 0.7 .19 12% .36 68% .25
Jan
20		 Kansas St. B D- A+ A A- 42% 22% 36% C+ A- C- C C- A+ F F F C- A+ F F F 31% 37% 31% A+ F+ A+ A A+ D+ A B- A
1.13 48% 58% 40% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 13% .17 60% .10 1.17 41% 60% 59% +15 -3 1.26 23% 0.9 .19 14% .17 70% .12
Jan
24		 BYU A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 13% 50% 37% F A+ D- F F A+ D A+ B- F F A+ F C+ 27% 35% 37% A+ B- F+ F+ F D+ F F F
1.21 71% 33% 65% +17 -6 1.24 19% 0.3 .06 9% .19 100% .19 1.41 79% 28% 42% +7 -3 1.10 44% 1.4 .59 12% .41 83% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Oklahoma St. D+ C- C+ F D+ 46% 19% 35% C+ C- D+ F F A+ A+ D- A D+ B F F C- 55% 11% 35% D+ C- D B- C D- A+ B+ A+
1.02 54% 40% 28% -5 +1 0.94 25% 0.6 .15 12% .40 67% .27 1.19 53% 50% 42% +3 +2 1.13 35% 0.9 .32 12% .22 69% .15
Feb
4		 Arizona St. D F A+ D F 39% 14% 47% B+ F+ B+ A- A C- D+ F F+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ 37% 25% 37% B A+ C- F F F F+ F F
0.98 32% 57% 30% -10 +1 0.84 37% 1.2 .45 22% .26 62% .16 1.11 37% 54% 21% -11 -1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 9% .43 88% .38
Feb
7		 Kansas D+ A F D+ B 41% 24% 35% B- B D- F F+ D- A- D B A F F A+ B- 42% 26% 32% C B- A+ B A+ C+ B B- B
0.88 65% 17% 29% -5 0 0.92 19% 0.6 .11 18% .29 63% .18 1.06 76% 46% 19% +2 0 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 15% .28 75% .21
Feb
10		 Houston D A+ F+ F C 42% 19% 40% B+ C+ D- D D- C+ D+ B C A- A+ C- D A- 33% 20% 47% F B B+ B- B+ D- A A+ A+
0.89 78% 25% 12% -7 +1 0.88 20% 0.8 .16 22% .31 71% .22 1.12 47% 40% 38% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 9% .19 50% .09
Feb
15		 Cincinnati B+ F A+ A+ C 36% 28% 36% C- C- A+ D+ A+ C- B A+ A- B- B B A+ A+ 47% 26% 28% C- A A F C- F F F F
1.02 18% 54% 41% -6 -1 0.87 42% 1.0 .42 20% .30 80% .24 1.08 55% 33% 23% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.4 .34 9% .38 77% .29
Feb
18		 West Virginia B- F A+ B+ B 32% 39% 30% F C+ A F C+ C- A+ F+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A 51% 2% 47% F B A+ A+ A+ D- B A+ A+
1.00 29% 53% 38% -2 -3 0.93 36% 0.8 .27 20% .43 67% .29 0.92 63% 0% 23% -6 +3 0.96 21% 0.6 .12 13% .28 47% .13
Feb
21		 Central Florida B C+ B D- C 35% 22% 43% C C B+ A+ A+ C F A+ F C F B- F F 36% 40% 24% A+ F A A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.14 59% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.8 .55 18% .14 100% .14 1.17 78% 35% 58% +15 -3 1.26 29% 0.5 .14 14% .17 67% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 1.3 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.8 2.2 0.0 3.0 13th
14th 6.5 1.2 0.0 7.6 14th
15th 6.4 27.4 13.8 0.2 47.7 15th
16th 22.6 15.8 1.4 39.8 16th
Total 29.0 43.2 22.4 5.0 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 22.4% 22.4
3-15 43.2% 43.2
2-16 29.0% 29.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 29.0%