Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#24
Expected Predictive Rating+19.2#8
Pace70.8#140
Improvement-0.8#265

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#24
First Shot+5.7#41
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#88
Layup/Dunks+3.6#64
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows-0.5#208
Improvement-0.3#225

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#31
First Shot+5.3#46
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#136
Layups/Dunks+7.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#64
Freethrows-2.2#296
Improvement-0.5#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.7% 4.5% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 10.6% 12.4% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 31.9% 35.9% 19.6%
Top 6 Seed 53.2% 57.9% 38.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.0% 84.4% 70.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.1% 83.7% 69.4%
Average Seed 5.6 5.4 6.4
.500 or above 92.0% 94.6% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 62.8% 65.9% 53.3%
Conference Champion 5.0% 5.7% 2.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 3.0% 5.4%
First Four4.6% 4.0% 6.5%
First Round78.6% 82.4% 67.0%
Second Round56.1% 60.0% 44.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.3% 30.2% 18.5%
Elite Eight11.5% 13.0% 6.7%
Final Four4.8% 5.5% 2.6%
Championship Game1.9% 2.2% 1.0%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: UNLV (Neutral) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   West Georgia W 95-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.7 +9.8 +7.4
  Nov 08, 2024 212   Georgia St. W 101-66 95%     2 - 0 +29.6 +17.9 +9.4
  Nov 12, 2024 261   SE Louisiana W 80-59 97%     3 - 0 +12.7 +2.2 +9.9
  Nov 17, 2024 50   Utah W 78-73 64%     4 - 0 +14.7 +8.0 +6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 67   @ SMU W 84-79 59%     5 - 0 +16.1 +14.1 +1.9
  Nov 28, 2024 91   UNLV W 76-69 76%    
  Dec 04, 2024 20   Pittsburgh W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 08, 2024 347   Prairie View W 93-64 99.6%   
  Dec 14, 2024 93   McNeese St. W 76-69 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 205   Central Michigan W 79-63 92%    
  Dec 21, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 77-79 42%    
  Dec 30, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 84-61 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 75   South Carolina W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 62   @ Vanderbilt W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Kentucky L 80-82 44%    
  Jan 14, 2025 6   @ Auburn L 73-82 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 45   Mississippi W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Tennessee L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 25, 2025 75   @ South Carolina W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 10   Alabama L 81-82 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 51   Missouri W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 55   @ Georgia W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   Florida W 82-80 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 45   @ Mississippi W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 22   Texas A&M W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 52   @ Oklahoma W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 25, 2025 10   @ Alabama L 78-85 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   LSU W 79-72 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 29   Texas W 74-70 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 27   @ Arkansas L 74-77 42%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.8 1.4 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.3 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.0 3.6 0.5 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 4.6 1.1 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.2 2.1 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.3 2.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 3.5 1.0 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.9 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.4 7.1 9.5 11.6 12.9 12.9 12.2 9.6 6.8 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
15-3 66.6% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.4% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.4% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.6% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 2.3 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.8% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 2.9 0.6 1.8 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.6% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.7 0.2 1.2 2.9 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.2% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.1 3.4 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.9% 99.4% 2.7% 96.8% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.4 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 12.9% 97.7% 1.5% 96.1% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.0 2.7 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.6%
8-10 11.6% 87.9% 0.7% 87.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.1 1.4 87.8%
7-11 9.5% 63.7% 0.5% 63.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 0.3 3.4 63.5%
6-12 7.1% 28.7% 0.3% 28.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.3 5.0 28.5%
5-13 4.4% 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.1 6.8%
4-14 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.6%
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.0% 4.1% 76.8% 5.6 3.7 6.9 10.1 11.2 11.1 10.3 7.5 5.8 5.0 4.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 19.0 80.1%