Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#10
Expected Predictive Rating+24.7#2
Pace78.9#18
Improvement-0.9#282

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#6
First Shot+10.7#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#196
Layup/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.7#9
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement-0.3#216

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#26
First Shot+6.0#34
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#165
Layups/Dunks+6.6#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#70
Freethrows+3.9#24
Improvement-0.6#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.5% 6.5% 0.8%
#1 Seed 22.3% 22.3% 4.6%
Top 2 Seed 43.4% 43.5% 16.8%
Top 4 Seed 72.0% 72.1% 41.2%
Top 6 Seed 85.7% 85.8% 57.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.9% 95.9% 79.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.2% 95.3% 78.0%
Average Seed 3.4 3.4 5.2
.500 or above 98.1% 98.1% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.8% 84.9% 61.8%
Conference Champion 17.3% 17.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 2.3%
First Four1.8% 1.8% 6.9%
First Round95.0% 95.1% 76.3%
Second Round82.5% 82.6% 58.8%
Sweet Sixteen52.6% 52.6% 34.4%
Elite Eight28.6% 28.6% 10.7%
Final Four14.5% 14.5% 3.8%
Championship Game7.1% 7.2% 2.3%
National Champion3.4% 3.4% 0.8%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 25 - 115 - 9
Quad 33 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 184   Wright St. W 103-62 96%     1 - 0 +36.7 +19.0 +15.4
  Nov 09, 2024 235   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +21.3 +14.1 +4.1
  Nov 12, 2024 5   Duke W 77-72 41%     3 - 0 +24.3 +9.7 +14.3
  Nov 19, 2024 152   Lipscomb W 97-68 95%     4 - 0 +26.4 +19.7 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 94-65 99.7%   
  Nov 26, 2024 122   Western Kentucky W 94-77 95%    
  Nov 29, 2024 229   Georgia St. W 92-69 98%    
  Dec 03, 2024 49   @ Clemson W 80-76 66%    
  Dec 07, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 82-87 31%    
  Dec 11, 2024 189   Colgate W 85-64 97%    
  Dec 14, 2024 46   Louisville W 87-77 82%    
  Dec 21, 2024 21   Ohio St. W 78-75 61%    
  Dec 31, 2024 224   Brown W 90-67 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 19   Florida W 90-84 69%    
  Jan 07, 2025 54   @ Georgia W 83-78 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 81-80 54%    
  Jan 14, 2025 26   Texas A&M W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 7   Alabama W 89-87 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 86-79 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 78-82 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 25   Arkansas W 85-78 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 81-77 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 72   South Carolina W 84-72 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 9   Tennessee W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 29   @ Texas W 79-78 53%    
  Feb 19, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 89-76 87%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 86-90 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma W 81-76 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   Auburn W 84-83 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   LSU W 87-77 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 62   @ Missouri W 82-77 67%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.9 5.3 4.4 1.8 0.4 17.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.2 5.4 2.1 0.4 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.7 4.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.7 1.8 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.4 0.3 7.8 6th
7th 0.3 2.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.0 0.1 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.1 6.6 8.6 11.4 13.2 13.4 12.9 10.8 7.5 4.8 1.8 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.2% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 91.6% 4.4    3.6 0.8 0.0
15-3 69.9% 5.3    3.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.9% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 10.4% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.3 5.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 50.8% 49.2% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.2 3.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.5% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 5.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.8% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.6 5.3 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.9% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.1 3.6 5.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.4% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 2.7 1.7 4.5 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.2% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 3.4 0.5 2.4 4.5 3.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.4% 99.9% 4.6% 95.3% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 8.6% 99.6% 3.3% 96.3% 5.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-10 6.6% 96.2% 2.1% 94.1% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.2%
7-11 4.1% 81.1% 1.4% 79.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.8 80.8%
6-12 2.4% 50.7% 0.3% 50.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.2 50.5%
5-13 1.3% 17.7% 0.4% 17.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 17.4%
4-14 0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 95.9% 13.3% 82.6% 3.4 22.3 21.1 16.7 11.9 8.4 5.3 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.7 0.3 4.2 95.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0