Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#52
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#33
Pace65.3#293
Improvement+1.0#83

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#71
First Shot+6.4#32
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#302
Layup/Dunks+2.8#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#208
Freethrows+1.0#140
Improvement+0.6#99

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#44
First Shot+9.9#3
After Offensive Rebounds-4.7#356
Layups/Dunks+8.6#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#305
Freethrows+3.3#32
Improvement+0.4#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 3.6% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.8% 9.3% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.2% 39.9% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 36.2% 37.9% 18.1%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 8.7
.500 or above 85.0% 86.7% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 66.5% 68.0% 49.6%
Conference Champion 3.6% 3.7% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.8% 5.5%
First Four6.7% 7.0% 3.9%
First Round34.9% 36.6% 16.7%
Second Round18.3% 19.2% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 6.2% 2.5%
Elite Eight2.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Home) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 113 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 339   Stonehill W 89-60 97%     1 - 0 +14.8 +14.6 +1.1
  Nov 11, 2024 331   Buffalo W 86-77 97%     2 - 0 -3.9 -2.5 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 116   @ Georgetown W 84-63 60%     3 - 0 +27.6 +20.4 +9.2
  Nov 19, 2024 251   North Dakota W 75-58 93%     4 - 0 +9.3 +0.8 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 205   Elon W 77-63 92%    
  Nov 26, 2024 43   Rutgers L 68-69 45%    
  Nov 28, 2024 3   Houston L 59-69 17%    
  Dec 03, 2024 53   @ Georgia L 69-72 38%    
  Dec 07, 2024 90   Syracuse W 77-71 72%    
  Dec 11, 2024 340   Dartmouth W 80-56 99%    
  Dec 22, 2024 337   Le Moyne W 80-57 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 104   @ Georgia Tech W 75-73 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 9   North Carolina L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 08, 2025 50   @ North Carolina St. L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 5   @ Duke L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 13, 2025 138   Boston College W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 90   @ Syracuse W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 70   @ Virginia L 58-60 44%    
  Jan 28, 2025 104   Georgia Tech W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 49   @ Miami (FL) L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 04, 2025 82   @ Florida St. L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 118   Virginia Tech W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 12, 2025 138   @ Boston College W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 47   Louisville W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 19, 2025 67   SMU W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 22   Pittsburgh L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 46   @ Clemson L 66-70 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest L 70-71 44%    
  Mar 05, 2025 74   Stanford W 71-66 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 106   California W 75-67 76%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 3.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 3.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 9.2 5th
6th 0.4 3.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.4 1.9 0.1 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.2 0.3 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.6 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 2.6 0.5 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.0 0.0 5.0 12th
13th 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.2 4.2 13th
14th 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.4 3.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.2 16th
17th 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.5 2.3 4.1 5.8 8.3 10.6 11.3 12.7 11.4 10.2 8.1 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
18-2 84.5% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 58.6% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
16-4 25.7% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 7.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 98.2% 24.9% 73.3% 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.6%
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 98.1% 13.7% 84.4% 5.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.8%
15-5 6.2% 93.3% 10.8% 82.5% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 92.5%
14-6 8.1% 85.7% 6.8% 78.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.2 84.7%
13-7 10.2% 71.1% 3.9% 67.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.6 0.0 2.9 69.9%
12-8 11.4% 49.1% 1.9% 47.2% 9.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.9 0.2 5.8 48.1%
11-9 12.7% 29.7% 1.3% 28.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 0.2 9.0 28.8%
10-10 11.3% 15.9% 0.7% 15.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 9.5 15.2%
9-11 10.6% 4.1% 4.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.2 4.1%
8-12 8.3% 1.5% 0.3% 1.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2 1.3%
7-13 5.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 5.8 0.2%
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 38.2% 3.1% 35.1% 8.3 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.2 3.8 5.2 6.2 6.3 7.1 0.8 61.8 36.2%