Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.6 #88
Expected Predictive Rating +8.9 #70
Pace 72.9 #78
Improvement -2.5 #302

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #70 B C+ B B+ C
Defense #113 C C A- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #159 1.31 #46 +3.2 #83
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #201 0.64 #307 -1.4 #247
Three Pointers 42% #167 1.09 #85 +2.0 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #85 +3.7 #84
Freethrows 20.0 #60 75% #100 15.1 #46
Second Chance 31.3% #165 1.11 #105 0.35 #124
Turnovers 14.8% #74
Total Offense +4.9 #70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.17 #190 +1.8 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #231 0.65 #50 +1.7 #71
Three Pointers 47% #46 1.02 #188 -2.8 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.7 #151
Freethrows 18.1 #226 77% #348 14.0 #83
Second Chance 31.2% #207 1.01 #152 0.32 #170
Turnovers 19.9% #36
Total Defense +1.7 #113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 0.0% #171
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.9% #79 -1.3% #153
Possession Length 15.0 #22 17.6 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #13 0.18 #192
Improvement -0.8 #241 -1.7 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.8% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 5.8% 1.9%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 24.7% 34.3% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 4.9% 7.5% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.7% 14.7% 35.2%
First Four2.0% 2.7% 1.2%
First Round2.9% 4.2% 1.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 37 - 15
Quad 33 - 110 - 17
Quad 44 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 329 Southern Utah W 81 - 64 96%  +11  1 - 0 +3 -0 B- D- F +3 A+ F B
 Sun, Nov 9 227 Utah Tech W 81 - 66 89%  +11  2 - 0 +8 +3 D A A+ +5 A D- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 10 Gonzaga L 65 - 77 16%  -7  2 - 1 +5 -1 C A- A+ +6 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 304 Georgia St. W 75 - 62 94%  -1  3 - 1 +2 -2 B- F B +4 D+ B A+
 Thu, Nov 20 98 @Hawaii W 83 - 76 44%  -2  4 - 1 +15 +12 A+ D+ A+ +2 C C A
 Mon, Nov 24 45 Texas W 87 - 86 32%  -2  5 - 1 +12 +11 A+ A C +1 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 145 Washington St. W 100 - 94 71%  -2  6 - 1 +7 +26 A+ A+ C -19 F F D
 Wed, Nov 26 46 USC L 75 - 88 33%  -4  6 - 2 -2 +12 A D C+ -14 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 48 Oklahoma W 86 - 70 34%  +16  7 - 2 +27 +13 A A+ C +13 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 302 Northern Arizona W 73 - 48 94%  +12  8 - 2 +14 +1 C C F +15 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 13 61 Santa Clara W 82 - 79 41%  -6  9 - 2 +12 +9 A+ B+ C- +3 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 38 @UCLA L 77 - 90 19%  -9  9 - 3 +3 +10 F A A+ -7 C- A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 182 Oregon St. L 75 - 78 85%  +1  9 - 4 -8 +3 D D+ B -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 77 Colorado L 89 - 95 58%  -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 -1 +4 C C D+ -5 B- D- A
 Wed, Jan 7 8 @BYU L 76 - 104 7%  -17  9 - 6 0 - 2 -5 +6 C C D+ -8 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 84 56% 
 Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 72 - 92 3% 
 Sun, Jan 18 11 @Houston L 64 - 80 7% 
 Wed, Jan 21 67 West Virginia W 72 - 71 53% 
 Sat, Jan 24 58 Cincinnati W 75 - 74 52% 
 Tue, Jan 27 50 @Central Florida L 79 - 86 25% 
 Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 75 - 89 10% 
 Wed, Feb 4 117 @Utah W 81 - 80 52% 
 Sat, Feb 7 77 @Colorado L 80 - 84 35% 
 Tue, Feb 10 54 Oklahoma St. L 85 - 86 50% 
 Tue, Feb 17 17 Texas Tech L 76 - 83 26% 
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Baylor L 76 - 86 17% 
 Tue, Feb 24 44 @TCU L 72 - 80 22% 
 Sat, Feb 28 117 Utah W 83 - 77 72% 
 Tue, Mar 3 18 Kansas L 73 - 80 26% 
 Sat, Mar 7 3 @Iowa St. L 68 - 88 4% 
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 13 +7 +5 B C+ B +2 C C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.3 0.1 6.9 10th
11th 0.5 4.7 3.8 0.3 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.1 3.2 6.7 1.2 0.0 11.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.8 7.8 3.8 0.2 13.7 13th
14th 0.1 1.5 7.3 6.3 0.8 0.0 15.8 14th
15th 0.1 1.7 6.7 7.3 1.6 0.0 17.4 15th
16th 0.4 2.3 4.7 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.5 16th
Total 0.4 2.4 6.5 13.0 17.7 19.4 17.3 11.6 6.8 3.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 92.9% 92.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.9%
10-8 1.2% 80.7% 0.4% 80.3% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 80.6%
9-9 3.3% 46.7% 0.2% 46.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.7 46.6%
8-10 6.8% 14.8% 0.1% 14.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 5.8 14.8%
7-11 11.6% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.4 1.6%
6-12 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 17.3 0.1%
5-13 19.4% 19.4
4-14 17.7% 17.7
3-15 13.0% 13.0
2-16 6.5% 6.5
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 10.0 95.9 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%