Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.7 #50
Expected Predictive Rating +16.8 #21
Pace 74.4 #52
Improvement +0.3 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #45 B A+ B C- C+
Defense #76 B- B+ B- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.26 #81 +4.8 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.74 #189 -0.1 #182
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.12 #46 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #66 +4.4 #67
Freethrows 15.9 #262 74% #130 11.8 #226
Second Chance 39.7% #11 1.18 #51 0.47 #12
Turnovers 15.0% #86
Total Offense +7.0 #45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.00 #28 +4.1 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.72 #135 +1.3 #100
Three Pointers 46% #58 1.03 #210 -2.9 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #99 +2.5 #99
Freethrows 19.1 #273 76% #315 14.5 #56
Second Chance 26.0% #40 1.00 #140 0.26 #49
Turnovers 18.4% #87
Total Defense +3.6 #76

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #143 0.4% #203
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.8% #65 -5.4% #85
Possession Length 15.3 #32 18.6 #342
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #43 0.13 #42
Improvement -2.1 #302 +2.3 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 7.2% 9.1% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.8% 62.6% 42.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.6% 62.4% 42.3%
Average Seed 8.7 8.6 9.1
.500 or above 97.9% 99.3% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 46.0% 54.8% 28.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.0% 4.9%
First Four10.8% 11.0% 10.6%
First Round49.8% 56.4% 36.6%
Second Round22.7% 26.0% 16.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 5.7% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cincinnati (Home) - 66.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 36 - 015 - 12
Quad 45 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 109 Hofstra W 82 - 78 81%  +1  1 - 0 +5 +6 C+ A+ F -1 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 7 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 26%  -12  1 - 1 +5 +22 A+ A+ A- -16 D+ F F
 Tue, Nov 11 345 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 98%  +22  2 - 1 +22 +12 A+ A+ F +8 C A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 14 40 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 32%  -2  3 - 1 +28 +15 A+ D C- +12 A+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 17 124 Oakland W 87 - 83 86%  +5  4 - 1 +3 +6 C+ A+ D+ -3 B- A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 82 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 64%  +5  5 - 1 +17 +16 B- A+ C- +3 A+ C A-
 Tue, Nov 25 158 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 90%  +2  6 - 1 +8 +19 A B+ A+ -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 332 VMI W 82 - 57 98%  +9  7 - 1 +11 +4 F D A+ +8 A- B- A
 Sun, Dec 7 175 Towson W 86 - 61 91%  +17  8 - 1 +21 +21 A+ A+ B- +2 C D- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 160 Mercer W 81 - 63 90%  +10  9 - 1 +15 +4 C- B+ B- +10 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 20 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 92%  +5  10 - 1 +17 +21 A+ A+ B+ -5 F A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 23 106 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 73%  -1  11 - 1 +9 +7 B- A B- +2 A- D- D
 Sat, Jan 3 18 Kansas W 81 - 75 39%  +2  12 - 1 1 - 0 +20 +17 A A+ A+ +3 A+ B B+
 Tue, Jan 6 54 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 42%  -6  12 - 2 1 - 1 +2 -2 F A+ A- +5 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 58 Cincinnati W 77 - 73 67% 
 Wed, Jan 14 74 @Kansas St. L 85 - 86 50% 
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 87 18% 
 Tue, Jan 20 3 @Iowa St. L 71 - 86 8% 
 Sat, Jan 24 77 @Colorado W 83 - 82 50% 
 Tue, Jan 27 88 Arizona St. W 86 - 79 75% 
 Sat, Jan 31 17 Texas Tech L 78 - 81 39% 
 Wed, Feb 4 11 @Houston L 67 - 79 14% 
 Sun, Feb 8 58 @Cincinnati L 74 - 76 45% 
 Sat, Feb 14 67 West Virginia W 75 - 70 68% 
 Tue, Feb 17 44 TCU W 78 - 76 57% 
 Sat, Feb 21 117 @Utah W 83 - 79 65% 
 Tue, Feb 24 8 @BYU L 75 - 88 13% 
 Sat, Feb 28 32 Baylor L 81 - 82 49% 
 Tue, Mar 3 54 Oklahoma St. W 89 - 85 64% 
 Fri, Mar 6 67 @West Virginia L 72 - 73 47% 
Totals 19 - 11 8 - 10 +11 +7 B A+ B +4 B- B+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.8 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.7 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 5.5 3.0 0.3 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 6.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.5 5.2 5.6 1.2 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.8 6.5 1.7 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 5.7 3.1 0.2 9.8 10th
11th 0.1 3.1 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.3 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.7 11.0 14.7 17.1 16.6 13.1 8.8 4.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 54.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.6% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.9% 99.5% 1.9% 97.6% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-6 4.8% 99.6% 2.0% 97.6% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 8.8% 97.1% 0.8% 96.3% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.3 97.1%
10-8 13.1% 92.8% 0.7% 92.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.5 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.9 92.8%
9-9 16.6% 82.1% 0.3% 81.7% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.2 4.5 1.7 0.0 3.0 82.0%
8-10 17.1% 54.5% 0.1% 54.3% 10.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.7 4.2 0.0 7.8 54.4%
7-11 14.7% 25.8% 0.0% 25.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 0.1 10.9 25.7%
6-12 11.0% 7.4% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 10.2 7.4%
5-13 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.9%
4-14 3.0% 3.0
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 55.8% 0.4% 55.4% 8.7 44.2 55.6%