Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.7 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +18.3 #18
Pace 73.0 #72
Improvement +1.5 #122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 B A B- C- C
Defense #71 C+ B+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.25 #81 +4.0 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #148 0.80 #110 +1.0 #118
Three Pointers 36% #287 1.13 #38 -0.5 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #61 +4.4 #60
Freethrows 0.28 #250 74% #133 0.21 #216
Second Chance 37.6% #21 1.23 #14 0.46 #7
Turnovers 15.0% #82
Total Offense +7.9 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.08 #83 +2.9 #81
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #196 0.78 #224 +0.0 #188
Three Pointers 44% #84 0.98 #126 -0.9 #231
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #109 +2.0 #111
Freethrows 0.30 #179 72% #185 0.22 #179
Second Chance 23.8% #12 1.03 #186 0.25 #34
Turnovers 17.4% #134
Total Defense +3.8 #71

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #182 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.4% #60 -3.8% #101
Possession Length 15.3 #27 18.6 #344
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #50 0.15 #99
Improvement -0.8 #225 +2.3 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.6% 24.2% 6.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.7% 96.6% 86.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.6% 96.6% 86.5%
Average Seed 8.5 7.6 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.9% 98.9% 89.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.3% 1.2% 6.9%
First Round84.2% 95.9% 82.7%
Second Round35.4% 48.2% 33.8%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 10.5% 5.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.5% 1.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 36 - 017 - 9
Quad 45 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 126 Hofstra W 82 - 78 88% +1  1 - 0 +3 +4 C+ A+ F -1 C A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 12 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 35% -12  1 - 1 +4 +22 A+ A+ A- -17 D F F
 Tue, Nov 11 317 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 98% +22  2 - 1 +24 +14 A A+ F+ +8 C+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 14 27 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 26% -2  3 - 1 +31 +16 A+ C C +13 A+ D+ B+
 Mon, Nov 17 129 Oakland W 87 - 83 88% +5  4 - 1 +3 +7 C+ A C -4 C A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 93 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 71% +5  5 - 1 +16 +15 C+ A+ C +2 A- B- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 186 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 93% +2  6 - 1 +6 +17 B B+ A- -12 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 356 VMI W 82 - 57 99% +9  7 - 1 +8 +2 F D A +7 A- C+ B
 Sun, Dec 7 155 Towson W 86 - 61 91% +17  8 - 1 +22 +22 A- A+ B +3 C D A+
 Wed, Dec 17 148 Mercer W 81 - 63 90% +10  9 - 1 +16 +3 D+ B C+ +12 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 223 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 94% +5  10 - 1 +16 +22 A+ A+ B -7 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 109 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 78% -1  11 - 1 +9 +7 B- B+ B- +1 B+ D D
 Sat, Jan 3 14 Kansas W 81 - 75 36% +2  12 - 1 1 - 0 +21 +17 B+ A+ A+ +5 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Jan 6 56 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 47% -6  12 - 2 1 - 1 +2 -2 F A A- +5 D- A+ A
 Sun, Jan 11 52 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 67% +1  13 - 2 2 - 1 +8 +12 A+ A C- -4 B+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 92 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 60% +7  14 - 2 3 - 1 +18 +9 A- C A +9 A A C
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 84 19% -6  14 - 3 3 - 2 +14 +10 C A+ B- +5 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 4 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 11% -15  14 - 4 3 - 3 -5 +1 D- A+ F -8 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 72 @Colorado W 95 - 86 53% +3  15 - 4 4 - 3 +20 +25 A+ B C- -5 D A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 77 Arizona St. W 79 - 76 75% -2  16 - 4 5 - 3 +8 +7 D+ A+ A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 17 Texas Tech W 88 - 80 39% +4  17 - 4 6 - 3 +23 +21 C+ A+ A+ +2 D- A+ A
 Wed, Feb 4 6 @Houston L 68 - 81 11%
 Sun, Feb 8 52 @Cincinnati L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 57 West Virginia W 73 - 68 69%
 Tue, Feb 17 51 TCU W 79 - 75 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 104 @Utah W 84 - 80 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 15 @BYU L 78 - 88 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 47 Baylor W 83 - 80 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 56 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 83 68%
 Fri, Mar 6 57 @West Virginia L 70 - 71 48%
Totals 21 - 9 10 - 8 +12 +8 B A B- +4 C+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.0 2.9 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 7.5 7.5 0.6 17.0 5th
6th 1.0 8.3 11.4 2.7 0.0 23.5 6th
7th 0.6 7.4 12.6 4.2 0.2 24.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 7.0 1.9 0.1 11.9 8th
9th 0.4 2.6 0.9 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.3 1.8 6.9 16.3 24.3 24.4 17.5 6.7 1.7 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 36.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.7% 100.0% 0.9% 99.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 6.7% 99.4% 1.9% 97.5% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-6 17.5% 98.2% 1.0% 97.2% 7.6 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.9 5.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 98.2%
11-7 24.4% 95.8% 0.3% 95.5% 8.4 0.1 1.0 3.4 7.7 7.7 3.1 0.4 1.0 95.8%
10-8 24.3% 90.9% 0.3% 90.6% 9.1 0.2 1.1 4.6 8.4 6.4 1.4 2.2 90.9%
9-9 16.3% 78.1% 0.3% 77.8% 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 5.0 2.4 3.6 78.0%
8-10 6.9% 51.6% 0.2% 51.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 0.0 3.4 51.5%
7-11 1.8% 16.0% 16.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 16.0%
6-12 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.3 3.2%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.7% 0.5% 87.1% 8.5 12.3 87.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%