Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.2 #52
Expected Predictive Rating +6.6 #82
Pace 70.0 #150
Improvement +3.0 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #170 C C C+ D C
Defense #8 B+ B B+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.24 #89 -0.3 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #199 0.79 #117 +0.0 #175
Three Pointers 45% #100 0.97 #251 +0.8 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #156 +0.5 #155
Freethrows 0.28 #267 67% #328 0.19 #306
Second Chance 31.4% #158 0.97 #258 0.30 #199
Turnovers 15.6% #118
Total Offense -0.2 #170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 0.94 #7 +6.0 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.79 #234 -1.3 #285
Three Pointers 42% #143 0.94 #81 +1.0 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #35 +5.7 #35
Freethrows 0.26 #53 68% #21 0.17 #33
Second Chance 23.1% #4 1.07 #249 0.25 #36
Turnovers 20.0% #31
Total Defense +10.4 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #205 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.2% #150 -10.1% #33
Possession Length 16.2 #73 18.3 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #40 0.08 #7
Improvement +2.9 #54 +0.1 #180

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.7% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.5% 7.5% 2.0%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.7
.500 or above 44.3% 55.8% 23.5%
.500 or above in Conference 18.9% 26.0% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 3.2%
First Four3.7% 4.8% 1.6%
First Round4.0% 5.6% 1.3%
Second Round1.4% 2.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 24 - 46 - 15
Quad 33 - 09 - 16
Quad 47 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 277 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  1 - 0 +22 +2 A- C F +15 B+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 268 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 95% +6  2 - 0 +1 -7 D- C- F +7 C C- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 88 Dayton W 74 - 62 75% +9  3 - 0 +15 -5 A- F F +19 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 289 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 96% +0  4 - 0 +7 -6 D+ D- C +12 B B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 16 Louisville L 64 - 74 23% -1  4 - 1 +8 -3 B- F+ C +11 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 324 NJIT W 94 - 67 97% +16  5 - 1 +14 +9 A- D+ B- +3 C+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 237 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 94% -9  5 - 2 -15 -15 F D D -1 B F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 226 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 93% +8  6 - 2 +11 +0 B A- F +11 C+ C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @Xavier L 74 - 79 52% -4  6 - 3 +5 +2 F A A+ +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 34 Georgia L 65 - 84 35% -1  6 - 4 -5 -8 D- D+ C+ +5 A- D- A
 Wed, Dec 17 322 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 97% +21  7 - 4 +24 +10 B- D- A+ +15 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 33 Clemson L 65 - 68 35% -13  7 - 5 +11 +4 C+ A- C+ +7 C A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 29 178 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 91% +16  8 - 5 +23 +11 B- A+ A+ +11 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 6 Houston L 60 - 67 21% +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +12 +2 B+ D+ C +9 A C C+
 Tue, Jan 6 57 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 42% -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +10 +2 C C A+ +9 F+ A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 44 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 33% -1  8 - 8 0 - 3 +14 +8 D+ A+ A+ +6 D B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 72 Colorado W 77 - 68 69% +13  9 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +1 B- F B +13 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 4 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 20% +7  10 - 8 2 - 3 +28 +20 A- A- A+ +8 A+ B- B+
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 51 - 77 7% -7  10 - 9 2 - 4 +1 -4 F+ C+ D +3 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 77 @Arizona St. L 68 - 82 48% -4  10 - 10 2 - 5 -3 -1 C- D D+ -2 C B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 47 Baylor W 67 - 57 56% +9  11 - 10 3 - 5 +19 -2 C- C- A +21 A+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 6 @Houston L 54 - 76 10% -13  11 - 11 3 - 6 +3 +3 B+ C F -4 C B+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 57 West Virginia W 65 - 61 64%
 Sun, Feb 8 44 Central Florida W 75 - 73 56%
 Wed, Feb 11 92 @Kansas St. W 74 - 73 54%
 Sun, Feb 15 104 Utah W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 14 @Kansas L 64 - 75 15%
 Tue, Feb 24 17 @Texas Tech L 67 - 77 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 Oklahoma St. W 78 - 74 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 15 BYU L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 @TCU L 67 - 70 39%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 11 +10 +0 C C C+ +10 B+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.4 6th
7th 0.6 3.7 2.1 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.6 7.0 0.9 16.5 8th
9th 0.4 7.9 11.4 1.7 0.0 21.5 9th
10th 0.0 3.6 10.9 2.9 0.1 17.5 10th
11th 0.7 8.3 5.0 0.2 14.1 11th
12th 0.1 3.1 6.1 0.8 10.1 12th
13th 0.6 4.4 1.4 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.1 2.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.2 0.1 0.3 16th
Total 0.3 2.9 9.7 19.9 25.6 22.7 13.0 4.8 1.0 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 77.0% 1.0% 76.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 76.8%
10-8 4.8% 44.5% 0.5% 44.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 0.0 2.7 44.2%
9-9 13.0% 17.6% 0.3% 17.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.7 17.3%
8-10 22.7% 1.5% 0.2% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 22.3 1.3%
7-11 25.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.2 0.1 0.0 25.5 0.2%
6-12 19.9% 19.9
5-13 9.7% 9.7
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 0.1% 5.5% 10.5 94.3 5.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%