Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.3 #58
Expected Predictive Rating +2.0 #136
Pace 73.6 #67
Improvement +2.2 #70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #191 C C- C+ D+ B-
Defense #7 B+ B+ A B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 1.24 #88 +0.5 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #295 0.65 #302 -2.8 #314
Three Pointers 48% #46 0.98 #218 +3.0 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #158 +0.7 #158
Freethrows 17.6 #175 65% #348 11.4 #257
Second Chance 29.8% #216 1.00 #237 0.30 #222
Turnovers 16.0% #140
Total Offense -0.7 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #295 0.93 #6 +6.5 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #108 0.85 #310 -1.9 #316
Three Pointers 43% #120 0.94 #103 +0.4 #169
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +5.0 #46
Freethrows 15.6 #99 68% #33 10.6 #304
Second Chance 23.7% #11 1.07 #224 0.25 #41
Turnovers 20.6% #21
Total Defense +10.0 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #109 -1.2% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.2% #172 -8.7% #45
Possession Length 15.6 #44 18.2 #315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #48 0.10 #13
Improvement +2.3 #51 -0.1 #196

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 9.0% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 8.9% 2.6%
Average Seed 9.9 9.8 10.0
.500 or above 28.1% 45.0% 19.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 24.2% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.0% 4.3% 14.3%
First Four2.0% 3.4% 1.3%
First Round4.0% 7.5% 2.2%
Second Round1.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 33.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 13
Quad 23 - 46 - 16
Quad 33 - 18 - 17
Quad 46 - 115 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 283 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 95%  +20  1 - 0 +21 +5 A+ C+ F +13 B+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 304 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 96%  +6  2 - 0 -1 -8 F D+ F +6 C D A+
 Tue, Nov 11 75 Dayton W 74 - 62 67%  +9  3 - 0 +17 -5 A F F +20 A+ A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 292 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 95%  +0  4 - 0 +7 -7 D- F C +13 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 15 Louisville L 64 - 74 22%  -1  4 - 1 +8 -4 B+ F C- +11 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 351 NJIT W 104 - 80 98%  +16  5 - 1 +8 +8 A- C B- -4 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 197 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 91%  -9  5 - 2 -13 -14 F F D- +1 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 172 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 89%  +8  6 - 2 +14 +0 B+ A- F +13 B A- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 97 @Xavier L 74 - 79 54%  -4  6 - 3 +3 +2 F A+ A+ +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 24 Georgia L 65 - 84 27%  -1  6 - 4 -3 -7 D- D+ C+ +5 A C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 301 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 96%  +21  7 - 4 +26 +8 C F A+ +18 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 39 Clemson L 65 - 68 36%  -13  7 - 5 +10 +3 C A- C- +7 C A+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 177 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 89%  +16  8 - 5 +23 +12 B- A+ A+ +10 A C- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 11 Houston L 60 - 67 25%  +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +9 +2 A- D C +7 A C C
 Tue, Jan 6 67 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 41%  -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +10 +0 C C- A+ +10 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 50 @Central Florida L 73 - 77 33% 
 Wed, Jan 14 77 Colorado W 77 - 72 67% 
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Iowa St. L 65 - 76 15% 
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 65 - 83 5% 
 Sat, Jan 24 88 @Arizona St. L 74 - 75 48% 
 Wed, Jan 28 32 Baylor L 73 - 75 43% 
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Houston L 59 - 72 11% 
 Thu, Feb 5 67 West Virginia W 67 - 63 63% 
 Sun, Feb 8 50 Central Florida W 76 - 74 55% 
 Wed, Feb 11 74 @Kansas St. L 76 - 78 44% 
 Sun, Feb 15 117 Utah W 78 - 69 80% 
 Sat, Feb 21 18 @Kansas L 65 - 75 17% 
 Tue, Feb 24 17 @Texas Tech L 67 - 77 17% 
 Sat, Feb 28 54 Oklahoma St. W 80 - 78 59% 
 Tue, Mar 3 8 BYU L 69 - 77 23% 
 Sat, Mar 7 44 @TCU L 67 - 72 31% 
Totals 14 - 17 6 - 12 +9 -1 C C- C+ +10 B+ B+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 2.9 1.2 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.5 3.7 2.2 0.3 6.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 4.8 0.8 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.4 2.5 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.5 5.0 5.2 0.5 11.2 11th
12th 0.1 3.1 7.3 1.7 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 6.8 3.7 0.2 12.4 13th
14th 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.0 0.7 12.4 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 3.8 4.5 1.0 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 5.1 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.9 12.6 16.3 18.1 16.7 12.7 7.3 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 3.8% 96.2% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.5% 89.9% 1.0% 88.9% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.8%
11-7 1.5% 68.7% 0.3% 68.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 68.6%
10-8 3.8% 45.0% 0.4% 44.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.0 2.1 44.7%
9-9 7.3% 16.3% 0.3% 16.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.0 6.1 16.0%
8-10 12.7% 2.1% 0.2% 1.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.4 1.9%
7-11 16.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 16.6 0.1%
6-12 18.1% 18.1
5-13 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 16.3
4-14 12.6% 12.6
3-15 6.9% 6.9
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.8% 0.1% 4.7% 9.9 95.2 4.7%