Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.4 43
Results Rating +9.4 60
Pace 69.7 141
Improvement +7.0 7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 120 C+ C+ C+ D+ C-
Defense A 8 A- B B+ B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 273 B- 62% 83 -0.2 190
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 257 C+ 40% 120 +0.3 160
Three Pointers 44% 121 C+ 35% 147 +1.9 117
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.2 215 B- +2.1 101
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.06 113
Second Chance C+ 32.8% 106 C 1.02 187 C+ 0.33 119
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 124
Freethrows D+ 0.28 256 D 69% 290 D+ 0.19 288
Total Offense C+ +1.8 120

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A 65% 10 B+ 7.5% 31
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 48% 8 B 2.6% 32
Three Pointers C+ 85% 167 A- -0.1% 3
Total A 69% 10 A 3.2% 7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 301 A 46% 6 -6.7 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 71 D+ 41% 293 +2.1 331
Three Pointers 42% 147 B+ 30% 40 -1.9 108
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.7 62 A- -5.7 21
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 21
Second Chance A- 24.0% 14 D+ 1.08 263 B 0.26 51
Turnovers B+ 19.7% 33
Freethrows B 0.26 44 A- 68% 20 B+ 0.18 28
Total Defense A +10.6 8

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 335 B 15.4% 46
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 231 D+ 3.5% 265
Three Pointers B 78% 41 A+ 3.6% 1
Total C 56% 197 B 7.6% 48

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.3 77 18.4 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 47 0.08 7
Improvement +6.9 #1 +0.0 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 51 43 35
Results Rating Rank 73 59 48
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 10 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22% 43% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22% 43% 17%
Average Seed 10.4 10.0 10.7
.500 or above 94% 100% 92%
.500 or above in Conference 61% 92% 54%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 19% 12%
First Round16% 35% 12%
Second Round7% 15% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 3% 1%
Elite Eight0% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 63 - 12
Quad 24 - 28 - 14
Quad 33 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 247 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 96% +20  99% 1 - 0 A+ +23 C +1 A C F+ A+ +19 B+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 7 289 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 97% +6  84% 2 - 0 C -1 F+ -10 F+ C- F A- +8 C D+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 87 Dayton W 74 - 62 80% +9  99% 3 - 0 A- +16 F+ -8 A F F A+ +22 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 284 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 97% +0  35% 4 - 0 B- +7 F+ -9 D+ F+ C A+ +15 B+ A- B+
 Fri, Nov 21 11 Louisville L 64 - 74 26% -1  44% 4 - 1 B +9 D -5 B F+ C A+ +14 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 318 NJIT W 94 - 67 98% +16  98% 5 - 1 B+ +14 B +7 A- D+ B B+ +6 B F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 248 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 96% -9  0% 5 - 2 F+ -16 F -17 F D- D C+ +1 B F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 230 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 95% +8  86% 6 - 2 B +11 C- -1 B+ A- F A+ +12 C+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 5 84 @Xavier L 74 - 79 60% -4  12% 6 - 3 B- +5 C- -1 F A A B+ +6 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 32 Georgia L 65 - 84 41% -1  50% 6 - 4 C- -4 F -12 F C- B- A +9 A D A
 Wed, Dec 17 312 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 98% +21  99% 7 - 4 A+ +25 B+ +9 B- D A+ A+ +16 A A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 41 Clemson L 65 - 68 48% -13  0% 7 - 5 B +10 C +1 C A C+ A +9 C A A-
 Mon, Dec 29 188 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 94% +16  83% 8 - 5 A +22 B+ +9 C+ A+ A+ A+ +12 A D B
 Sat, Jan 3 6 Houston L 60 - 67 26% +1  46% 8 - 6 0 - 1 B+ +12 C- -1 A- D+ C- A+ +12 A C C+
 Tue, Jan 6 55 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 48% -3  13% 8 - 7 0 - 2 B +11 C +1 C C A+ A +10 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 51 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 46% -1  24% 8 - 8 0 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 D A A+ A +9 D- B A+
 Wed, Jan 14 66 Colorado W 77 - 68 75% +13  99% 9 - 8 1 - 3 A- +15 C- -1 B F B+ A+ +15 A- C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 8 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 30% +7  84% 10 - 8 2 - 3 A+ +27 A+ +18 A B+ A+ A +10 A+ C+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 3 @Arizona L 51 - 77 9% -7  5% 10 - 9 2 - 4 C +2 D -6 F+ B- D- B+ +5 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 60 @Arizona St. L 68 - 82 52% -4  14% 10 - 10 2 - 5 C- -2 C- -2 C- D C- C -0 D+ B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 28 44 Baylor W 67 - 57 65% +9  99% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A +18 D -5 D+ C- A+ A+ +23 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 6 @Houston L 54 - 76 12% -13  5% 11 - 11 3 - 6 C+ +3 C +0 A- C+ F C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 5 55 West Virginia L 59 - 65 70% +6  74% 11 - 12 3 - 7 C +1 D+ -4 F A+ D+ B +4 A+ F B
 Sun, Feb 8 51 Central Florida W 92 - 72 68% +11  98% 12 - 12 4 - 7 A+ +28 A+ +18 A+ A B- A +10 A- A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 96 @Kansas St. W 91 - 62 64% +21  99% 13 - 12 5 - 7 A+ +38 A+ +19 A+ A+ C A+ +19 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Feb 15 99 Utah W 69 - 65 83% +2  61% 14 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 C -0 D- B A+ B+ +6 A+ F A
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @Kansas W 84 - 68 21% +2  53% 15 - 12 7 - 7 A+ +37 A+ +23 A+ C+ C A+ +14 A+ B C+
 Tue, Feb 24 14 @Texas Tech L 67 - 76 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Oklahoma St. W 80 - 73 74%
 Tue, Mar 3 20 BYU L 75 - 77 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 50 @TCU L 68 - 69 45%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 9 +12 C+ +2 B- B- C- A +11 C+ D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C+ C+ B- 35% 31% 44% C- C+ C+ C C+ C+ D+ D D+ A A D+ B+ A- 34% 24% 42% B A- A- D+ B B+ B A- B+
1.11 62% 40% 35% +2 0 1.06 33% 1.0 .33 16% .28 69% .19 0.93 46% 41% 30% -6 -1 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 20% .26 68% .19
Nov
3		 Western Carolina C A+ A+ B- A 35% 19% 46% C A D A+ C F+ A+ F A A+ A A C- B 30% 26% 43% A- B+ C+ A+ A A+ B A+ A-
1.18 78% 60% 38% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31 0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14
Nov
7		 Georgia St. F+ A+ C- F F+ 35% 15% 50% C F+ C D+ C- F A+ F+ A A- B- D B+ D 20% 44% 36% A+ C B F D+ A C- F D-
0.98 72% 38% 19% -6 0 0.90 34% 0.9 .32 21% .44 65% .29 0.85 50% 41% 28% -4 -4 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 23% .31 89% .27
Nov
11		 Dayton F+ D+ F A+ A- 45% 10% 45% A+ A F F F F A+ F A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ 53% 5% 42% F A+ A+ C A+ C- C+ C+ B-
0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40 0.76 53% 33% 4% -22 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29
Nov
16		 Mount St. Mary's F+ C+ C F D 37% 19% 44% C+ D+ B F F+ C A+ F B A+ A+ B+ C B+ 38% 14% 48% C+ B+ A+ D- A- B+ A+ A+ A+
0.99 58% 40% 26% -5 0 0.92 34% 0.6 .20 14% .48 60% .29 0.75 42% 29% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 1.1 .21 26% .19 30% .06
Nov
21		 Louisville D C+ F B- B- 37% 24% 39% B B B- F F+ C C F D+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ 30% 13% 57% A- A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F
0.90 58% 25% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 0.5 .12 18% .27 63% .17 1.04 71% 17% 31% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.4 .11 18% .48 86% .41
Nov
24		 NJIT B A B- B+ A 34% 17% 49% C- A- D+ D+ D+ B D D D B+ A+ D F B- 20% 28% 52% A- B F F F A+ B D+ B-
1.24 70% 40% 38% +7 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 12% .31 67% .21 0.88 0% 43% 38% -7 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .38 26% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Eastern Michigan F D+ D- F F 42% 6% 52% A- F F+ C D- D D- B+ D+ C+ A+ F B- B+ 26% 24% 50% C+ B B- F F A+ F F F
0.85 52% 33% 23% -11 +2 0.84 22% 1.0 .22 18% .26 79% .21 0.98 20% 67% 32% -5 -1 0.89 25% 1.9 .46 26% .45 86% .39
Dec
1		 Tarleton St. C- D+ F A+ A 17% 12% 71% D+ B+ A C A- F F F F A+ A+ D- F B- 41% 20% 39% D C+ A+ F C A+ B+ A+ A+
1.07 57% 20% 47% +11 0 1.24 44% 1.1 .47 30% .30 60% .18 0.82 33% 44% 41% -5 0 0.93 17% 1.8 .31 27% .27 57% .15
Dec
5		 Xavier C- F F+ F F 32% 23% 46% C- F B+ A+ A A B+ F D+ B+ D+ F A+ C+ 28% 30% 43% B C+ A+ A A+ F F A+ C
1.00 44% 31% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 12% .34 50% .17 1.07 65% 67% 23% +3 -2 1.05 12% 0.8 .10 5% .33 57% .19
Dec
13		 Georgia F C+ F F F 35% 23% 42% C- F C- C- C- B- A F B- A F B- A+ A- 37% 25% 38% A+ A A+ F D A F C- F
0.85 56% 25% 23% -11 -1 0.79 30% 0.9 .26 18% .34 57% .19 1.10 74% 38% 20% -2 -1 0.96 28% 1.7 .47 20% .42 77% .32
Dec
17		 Alabama St. B+ A+ B- F B- 39% 9% 52% B- B- B- F D A+ D D D- A+ A+ D+ A+ A 33% 33% 33% A A D- A+ A+ D A A+ A
1.26 90% 40% 25% +6 +2 1.17 36% 0.8 .31 10% .32 70% .22 0.73 39% 39% 22% -12 -2 0.74 35% 0.3 .10 16% .20 58% .12
Dec
21		 Clemson C F C- A+ C- 38% 18% 44% B+ C B+ A A C+ C- D+ C- A A C F C 45% 15% 40% C C A+ F A A- A C+ A
0.97 32% 33% 41% -6 0 0.90 29% 1.2 .34 18% .27 73% .20 1.02 48% 43% 47% +4 +1 1.13 7% 2.5 .18 18% .26 71% .18
Dec
29		 Lipscomb B+ C+ F B C 40% 15% 45% B+ C+ B A+ A+ A+ F D F A+ A F A A+ 38% 4% 58% D A A F D B C+ A+ A-
1.23 63% 22% 37% +1 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .49 11% .14 67% .09 0.86 47% 50% 28% -9 +2 0.88 16% 1.8 .30 19% .22 54% .12
Jan
3		 Houston C- C- B+ C+ B+ 45% 12% 43% A A- D+ D+ D+ C- C A B- A+ B- B+ B+ A+ 30% 30% 40% C- A B+ D C C+ A+ C A+
0.94 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 24% 0.9 .21 23% .33 75% .25 1.05 60% 33% 30% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.2 .40 13% .16 78% .13
Jan
6		 West Virginia C A F C- C+ 23% 21% 57% D+ C C- C+ C A+ F F F A A D+ F F 31% 17% 52% B F A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A
0.94 67% 9% 33% -5 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 13% .16 44% .07 0.97 46% 43% 50% +10 0 1.21 21% 0.7 .14 24% .27 54% .14
Jan
11		 Central Florida B- A B F D+ 35% 35% 30% F+ D B- A+ A A+ F F F A F D F F 38% 33% 29% A D- A+ F B A+ A+ C- A+
1.07 70% 45% 12% -3 -2 0.91 28% 1.5 .42 10% .13 63% .08 1.09 72% 44% 43% +11 -2 1.21 19% 2.0 .38 21% .17 78% .13
Jan
14		 Colorado C- A+ A- F B+ 42% 31% 27% C- B C- F F B+ A+ D A+ A+ B- D+ B B+ 39% 29% 33% A- A- B+ F+ C A+ B+ B- B+
1.06 70% 47% 23% +3 -1 1.06 25% 0.5 .13 14% .56 69% .38 0.93 58% 43% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 23% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Iowa St. A+ B- A+ C+ A 24% 27% 49% D+ A A+ F B+ A+ D+ B+ C- A A+ A F+ A+ 44% 16% 40% D+ A+ A F+ C+ A- F B+ F
1.19 62% 53% 33% +5 -2 1.07 42% 0.9 .36 12% .21 75% .15 1.06 42% 29% 41% -4 +1 0.95 31% 1.3 .40 18% .50 63% .31
Jan
21		 Arizona D F C F F+ 26% 36% 38% D+ F+ B C- B- D- B- A+ A+ B+ C A+ A+ A+ 45% 33% 22% B- A+ D- C- D F F B- F
0.78 33% 35% 22% -14 -3 0.68 28% 0.8 .23 22% .27 93% .26 1.19 64% 19% 18% -9 -1 0.82 45% 1.0 .45 9% .47 71% .34
Jan
24		 Arizona St. C- C+ A+ F C+ 33% 37% 29% F C- B F D C- C- F D C B A F D 26% 22% 52% B+ D+ A F+ B+ C+ C B C+
0.98 59% 53% 20% 0 -3 0.96 36% 0.7 .25 22% .27 67% .18 1.18 54% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.12 24% 1.4 .33 16% .36 71% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Baylor D F A D- D+ 16% 33% 51% C D+ F+ A+ C- A+ D+ B+ C- A+ A+ B A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+
0.98 44% 50% 29% -2 -3 0.91 21% 1.3 .26 12% .23 79% .18 0.83 50% 38% 21% -11 +1 0.82 27% 0.9 .24 15% .15 56% .09
Jan
31		 Houston C D D A+ A+ 10% 44% 46% F A- A+ F C+ F C F+ D+ C A- F D D+ 18% 39% 43% A C- A- B- A- F D- D- F+
0.91 50% 28% 47% +4 -5 1.00 40% 0.7 .27 32% .32 62% .20 1.28 56% 53% 38% +8 -4 1.10 32% 1.0 .32 7% .33 83% .27
Feb
5		 West Virginia D+ F D- F F+ 29% 31% 40% F+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ B+ D- B B F A+ A+ 37% 20% 44% B A+ B- F F B F A+ F
0.92 43% 27% 26% -13 -2 0.73 31% 1.6 .51 20% .18 78% .14 1.01 53% 63% 17% -8 0 0.85 29% 1.8 .53 19% .52 56% .29
Feb
8		 Central Florida A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 29% 37% 33% F A+ C+ A+ A B- A- C- B+ A B F+ A A- 32% 30% 38% A A- A+ A+ A+ F+ B D B-
1.31 73% 37% 59% +16 -3 1.29 26% 1.6 .41 16% .36 71% .25 1.03 56% 47% 29% -1 -2 0.96 27% 0.6 .17 11% .24 80% .19
Feb
11		 Kansas St. A+ D+ F+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A+ A A+ A+ C C- A+ C+ A+ B- C A+ A+ 31% 27% 41% A+ A+ C+ D C- A+ A+ B+ A
1.29 53% 30% 52% +9 0 1.20 42% 1.5 .65 18% .28 81% .23 0.88 56% 36% 24% -8 -1 0.84 31% 1.2 .37 23% .17 67% .11
Feb
15		 Utah C D+ D- F F+ 47% 26% 28% C- D- D+ A+ B A+ A+ A A+ B+ A+ F F+ A+ 36% 28% 36% A A+ F C- F A C+ F+ C-
1.08 55% 33% 23% -7 0 0.87 25% 1.4 .34 9% .38 77% .29 1.02 18% 54% 41% -6 -1 0.87 42% 1.0 .42 20% .30 80% .24
Feb
21		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 27% 47% D+ A+ A+ F C+ C B C B A+ A- F+ A+ A+ 31% 37% 31% A+ A+ A D B C+ A C A
1.24 77% 57% 42% +15 -2 1.29 41% 0.6 .24 15% .26 67% .17 1.01 53% 45% 24% -4 -3 0.89 26% 1.3 .34 15% .23 77% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.3 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 1.7 5th
6th 0.2 7.3 1.2 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 8.1 10.1 0.0 18.4 7th
8th 2.8 20.6 1.6 25.0 8th
9th 0.6 13.6 9.0 0.0 23.2 9th
10th 5.7 14.8 0.9 21.4 10th
11th 1.2 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 7.4 31.5 38.8 19.1 3.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.1% 78.5% 1.1% 77.5% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.7 78.3%
10-8 19.1% 51.5% 0.6% 50.8% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.0 4.8 0.2 9.3 51.2%
9-9 38.8% 22.8% 0.5% 22.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 6.7 1.0 30.0 22.4%
8-10 31.5% 2.7% 0.2% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 30.6 2.4%
7-11 7.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.3%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.0% 0.4% 21.6% 10.4 78.0 21.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 97.2% 7.2 16.7 47.2 27.8 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 88.8% 8.3 1.8 17.2 33.1 25.4 10.7 0.6
Lose Out 3.4%