Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.2 #3
Expected Predictive Rating +30.8 #1
Pace 71.5 #115
Improvement -0.3 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #13 A+ A- B+ C+ C
Defense #2 A- B A+ A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #127 1.37 #16 +5.5 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #153 0.81 #101 +1.1 #120
Three Pointers 38% #244 1.29 #1 +3.9 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.22 #2 +10.5 #2
Freethrows 19.9 #65 68% #308 13.5 #130
Second Chance 39.4% #15 1.06 #168 0.42 #34
Turnovers 14.1% #43
Total Offense +10.5 #13

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #344 1.19 #215 +4.3 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.61 #22 -0.6 #234
Three Pointers 43% #137 0.86 #35 +2.4 #95
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #31 +6.1 #32
Freethrows 13.0 #23 68% #45 8.9 #350
Second Chance 27.1% #68 1.00 #129 0.27 #68
Turnovers 24.4% #1
Total Defense +12.7 #2

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #191 -2.9% #18
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 20.5% #2 -9.4% #38
Possession Length 15.7 #47 18.2 #310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #47 0.14 #78
Improvement -2.9 #338 +2.6 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.9% 14.3% 7.6%
#1 Seed 53.5% 54.7% 36.1%
Top 2 Seed 88.6% 89.4% 76.3%
Top 4 Seed 99.4% 99.5% 98.1%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.6 2.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Conference Champion 45.1% 46.7% 21.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.0% 99.0% 98.6%
Sweet Sixteen80.2% 80.4% 77.6%
Elite Eight56.5% 57.0% 49.6%
Final Four35.2% 35.6% 28.3%
Championship Game20.2% 20.5% 16.3%
National Champion10.6% 10.8% 7.3%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 113 - 4
Quad 28 - 021 - 4
Quad 32 - 022 - 4
Quad 47 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100%  +24  1 - 0 +22 +6 A F A- +16 A+ C A+
 Thu, Nov 6 246 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99%  +16  2 - 0 +32 +20 A+ A- A+ +10 B+ A A+
 Mon, Nov 10 55 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 89%  +11  3 - 0 +26 +21 A+ A+ A +4 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 340 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100%  +18  4 - 0 +24 +18 A+ C B- +6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 21 St. John's W 83 - 82 75%  +4  5 - 0 +17 +20 B- A+ A+ -3 A- D C
 Tue, Nov 25 37 Creighton W 78 - 60 82%  +10  6 - 0 +31 +13 B A+ A- +18 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 69 Syracuse W 95 - 64 91%  +11  7 - 0 +39 +25 A+ C- A+ +14 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 346 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100%  +36  8 - 0 +49 +35 A+ A+ C +6 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 4 @Purdue W 81 - 58 40%  +9  9 - 0 +49 +24 A+ C D+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 20 Iowa W 66 - 62 82%  -1  10 - 0 +17 +9 C+ D+ A+ +9 C B- A+
 Sun, Dec 14 309 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 100%  +15  11 - 0 +13 +2 C+ F C +11 A C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 262 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99%  +29  12 - 0 +22 +9 A A- C+ +12 A- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 300 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 100%  +12  13 - 0 +17 +14 F A+ A- +4 C A A
 Fri, Jan 2 67 West Virginia W 80 - 59 94%  +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +27 +24 A+ A+ C +6 A- B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 32 @Baylor W 70 - 60 73%  +3  15 - 0 2 - 0 +27 +4 C- B D+ +23 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 54 Oklahoma St. W 90 - 74 94% 
 Tue, Jan 13 18 @Kansas W 75 - 71 63% 
 Sat, Jan 17 58 @Cincinnati W 76 - 65 85% 
 Tue, Jan 20 50 Central Florida W 86 - 71 92% 
 Sat, Jan 24 54 @Oklahoma St. W 87 - 77 83% 
 Thu, Jan 29 77 Colorado W 88 - 69 96% 
 Sun, Feb 1 74 @Kansas St. W 87 - 75 87% 
 Sat, Feb 7 32 Baylor W 83 - 71 87% 
 Tue, Feb 10 44 @TCU W 76 - 68 78% 
 Sat, Feb 14 18 Kansas W 78 - 68 81% 
 Mon, Feb 16 11 Houston W 72 - 65 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 8 @BYU L 76 - 77 50% 
 Tue, Feb 24 117 @Utah W 85 - 68 94% 
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Texas Tech W 81 - 71 81% 
 Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 76 - 80 37% 
 Sat, Mar 7 88 Arizona St. W 88 - 68 96% 
Totals 28 - 3 15 - 3 +23 +10 A+ A- B+ +13 A- B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 10.1 17.2 11.6 3.4 45.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 9.2 11.4 4.3 0.3 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.7 5.7 1.5 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.6 6.0 11.9 18.2 23.0 21.5 11.9 3.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
17-1 97.4% 11.6    10.2 1.4
16-2 80.0% 17.2    10.8 5.9 0.5
15-3 43.8% 10.1    3.6 4.9 1.4 0.2
14-4 14.3% 2.6    0.3 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.1% 45.1 28.3 13.5 2.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.4% 100.0% 47.7% 52.3% 1.1 3.1 0.4 100.0%
17-1 11.9% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 1.2 9.9 2.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 21.5% 100.0% 35.0% 65.0% 1.3 15.5 5.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 23.0% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.5 13.3 9.0 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.2% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.7 7.9 8.6 1.7 0.1 100.0%
13-5 11.9% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.0 3.0 6.0 2.6 0.3 100.0%
12-6 6.0% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.4 0.8 2.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.6% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.1% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 1.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8