Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.9 8
Results Rating +21.5 9
Pace 68.4 184
Improvement -4.1 330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 19 A A- B C C+
Defense A 7 B+ B- A+ A- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 104 A 69% 9 +6.2 16
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 232 C 38% 193 -0.8 222
Three Pointers 40% 208 A 41% 2 +3.8 61
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 124 A +8.4 6
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 7
Second Chance A- 38.4% 14 B- 1.11 62 A- 0.43 19
Turnovers B 14.4% 46
Freethrows B- 0.33 110 D- 68% 323 C 0.22 171
Total Offense A- +9.8 19

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B+ 59% 32 B+ 7.2% 26
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 125 D 7.6% 318
Three Pointers B 89% 62 A- -0.1% 1
Total B+ 65% 32 B 4.4% 47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 357 C 57% 162 -6.0 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 43 A- 32% 16 +0.5 226
Three Pointers 46% 50 B+ 30% 39 -0.1 176
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 23 B+ -4.3 38
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.91 35
Second Chance B 26.1% 40 C- 1.05 223 B- 0.28 74
Turnovers A+ 22.7% 5
Freethrows B+ 0.24 19 B 70% 62 A- 0.17 15
Total Defense A +11.0 7

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 288 C 11.4% 150
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 64 B 7.7% 51
Three Pointers C+ 82% 135 C- 0.7% 195
Total C 56% 202 C 5.6% 173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.0 51 19.0 356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 66 0.12 43
Improvement -4.1 #343 +0.0 #188

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 13 8 5
Results Rating Rank 15 9 5
Conference Record 11 - 7 13 - 5 14 - 4
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed 5 3 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Sweet 16 Champ Game

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1% 1% 0%
#1 Seed 9% 10% 3%
Top 2 Seed 39% 42% 19%
Top 4 Seed 92% 93% 79%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 99%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.9 2.8 3.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 5% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round97% 98% 96%
Sweet Sixteen67% 68% 62%
Elite Eight35% 36% 29%
Final Four17% 17% 12%
Championship Game8% 8% 5%
National Champion3% 4% 2%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 6
Quad 210 - 018 - 6
Quad 32 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  99% 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +4 A+ F B A+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 296 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  99% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +18 A A- B+ A- +8 C+ A- A
 Mon, Nov 10 74 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 89% +11  82% 3 - 0 A+ +24 A+ +17 A A+ B B+ +5 C F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 341 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  100% 4 - 0 A+ +24 A+ +18 A+ C B B +5 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 19 St. John's W 83 - 82 60% +2  64% 5 - 0 A +19 A+ +20 C+ A+ A+ C -0 A- D C+
 Tue, Nov 25 63 Creighton W 78 - 60 87% +10  91% 6 - 0 A+ +27 B+ +8 C A+ A- A+ +20 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 73 Syracuse W 95 - 64 89% +11  78% 7 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +20 A+ C- A+ A+ +18 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 345 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  94% 8 - 0 A+ +48 A+ +32 A+ A+ C+ A- +8 F C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 7 @Purdue W 81 - 58 36% +9  73% 9 - 0 A+ +47 A+ +21 A+ C C A+ +29 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 26 Iowa W 66 - 62 78% -1  47% 10 - 0 A- +17 B- +5 C+ C A+ A+ +12 C+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 324 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 100% +15  76% 11 - 0 B+ +12 C- -0 C D B A+ +12 B B- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 263 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  99% 12 - 0 A +22 B+ +8 A B+ B- A+ +13 A- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 298 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  94% 13 - 0 A- +17 A +13 D- A+ A- B+ +6 C- A B+
 Fri, Jan 2 55 West Virginia W 80 - 59 90% +10  72% 14 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +24 A+ A C+ A- +7 B+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 44 @Baylor W 70 - 60 73% +3  50% 15 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +24 C +1 D B+ C A+ +24 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 68 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 92% +3  61% 16 - 0 3 - 0 A- +17 B +6 C B A A+ +11 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 21 @Kansas L 63 - 84 51% -15  0% 16 - 1 3 - 1 C -0 B- +4 B+ C F+ D -6 F A C
 Sat, Jan 17 43 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 70% -7  13% 16 - 2 3 - 2 B- +6 A- +11 B- A B- D -5 C C- F+
 Tue, Jan 20 51 Central Florida W 87 - 57 89% +15  96% 17 - 2 4 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +19 B+ A+ A+ A+ +21 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 68 @Oklahoma St. W 84 - 71 82% +18  99% 18 - 2 5 - 2 A+ +24 A +13 A- A+ F A+ +12 B B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 66 Colorado W 97 - 67 92% +22  95% 19 - 2 6 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +25 A+ A+ A- A+ +11 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 96 @Kansas St. W 95 - 61 87% +23  96% 20 - 2 7 - 2 A+ +43 A+ +22 A+ C B- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 44 Baylor W 72 - 69 88% +4  75% 21 - 2 8 - 2 B+ +11 B +7 A+ C+ F B +5 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 10 50 @TCU L 55 - 62 75% +1  62% 21 - 3 8 - 3 B- +7 F -10 D- B- F A+ +17 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 21 Kansas W 74 - 56 72% +9  75% 22 - 3 9 - 3 A+ +33 A+ +15 A A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Feb 16 6 Houston W 70 - 67 57% -0  46% 23 - 3 10 - 3 A +22 A+ +18 A+ D+ A+ B+ +5 B- B- C
 Sat, Feb 21 20 @BYU L 69 - 79 50% -6  11% 23 - 4 10 - 4 B +11 B- +4 B- A+ B B+ +6 C- F B
 Tue, Feb 24 99 @Utah W 81 - 68 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 14 Texas Tech W 77 - 72 68%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 @Arizona L 72 - 79 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 60 Arizona St. W 83 - 68 92%
Totals 26 - 5 13 - 5 +21 A- +10 A+ A C+ A +11 A D- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A C A A 41% 33% 40% C+ A A- B- A- B B- D- C A C A- B+ B+ 29% 26% 46% A- B+ B C- B- A+ B+ B A-
1.23 69% 38% 41% +8 0 1.20 38% 1.1 .43 14% .33 68% .22 0.93 57% 32% 30% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.1 .28 23% .24 70% .23
Nov
3		 Fairleigh Dickinson B- A+ F+ A+ A+ 34% 27% 39% D- A+ C- F F B F D- F A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 22% 24% 54% A- A+ A+ F C+ A+ D A+ C
1.25 85% 31% 52% +18 -1 1.36 26% 0.3 .09 13% .15 67% .10 0.71 60% 18% 20% -16 -2 0.67 20% 1.4 .28 25% .32 59% .19
Nov
6		 Grambling St. A+ B- A+ A+ A 42% 9% 49% B- A A C A- B+ A+ F B A- C- B- B C- 42% 36% 22% A C+ A+ F A- A F B D-
1.36 64% 60% 42% +10 +2 1.26 44% 1.1 .47 16% .46 62% .29 0.83 58% 31% 30% -4 -2 0.91 16% 1.2 .19 25% .41 70% .29
Nov
10		 Mississippi St. A+ A- A+ F A- 51% 15% 35% A+ A A+ B+ A+ B A+ B- A+ B+ B F D+ C 33% 16% 51% D+ C F D F A+ C+ F D+
1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28 1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22
Nov
17		 Stonehill A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 42% 23% 36% C- A+ C+ D+ C B A+ F A+ B F D+ F+ F 14% 39% 47% A+ F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 67% 37% +14 0 1.30 30% 1.0 .30 10% .47 63% .30 0.81 71% 40% 38% +5 -4 1.04 19% 0.5 .09 28% .04 50% .02
Nov
24		 St. John's A+ F+ F A+ C+ 43% 24% 33% C C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C B+ A+ C- A- 46% 19% 35% B- A- D C D C+ F D+ F
1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35 1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39
Nov
25		 Creighton B+ C D- D C- 52% 24% 24% B+ C A- A+ A+ A- B- D- C A+ A+ F D- B 32% 16% 52% C B C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.15 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.96 36% 1.5 .53 12% .23 64% .15 0.88 44% 50% 38% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.4 .11 25% .22 55% .12
Nov
26		 Syracuse A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A A+ C- C C- A+ B D- C+ A+ C A+ B A 37% 12% 51% D+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C
1.32 70% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.33 30% 1.1 .33 13% .33 67% .22 0.89 61% 17% 32% -3 +1 0.98 33% 0.6 .19 26% .36 63% .23
Dec
3		 Alcorn St. A+ A- F A+ A+ 44% 9% 47% B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ B- B- B- A- F A F F 30% 34% 36% A F C+ C+ C+ A+ A B- A-
1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27 0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11
Dec
6		 Purdue A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 36% 40% D- A+ A+ F C C F C F+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 31% 35% 33% A A+ D- A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+
1.24 75% 61% 50% +22 -3 1.40 38% 0.6 .24 18% .11 67% .08 0.89 80% 29% 13% -7 -2 0.83 42% 0.9 .36 23% .28 43% .12
Dec
11		 Iowa B- B- F C C+ 44% 21% 35% C+ C+ B- F+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ C F D+ 34% 36% 30% A+ C+ B D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 22% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .24 15% .44 74% .32 1.01 67% 44% 46% +10 -2 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 26% .11 60% .07
Dec
14		 Eastern Illinois C- A+ A F C 42% 17% 42% C C C F+ D B A+ D A+ A+ A A C+ B- 29% 33% 39% B B B C B- A+ B C B
1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34 0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17
Dec
21		 Long Beach St. B+ A+ F A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% F+ A A D+ B+ B- D- F F A+ F D+ A+ B+ 28% 35% 37% B+ A- A A+ A+ B- A+ B A+
1.24 74% 29% 53% +12 -2 1.24 38% 1.2 .44 16% .29 44% .13 0.81 75% 40% 14% -5 -3 0.86 18% 0.6 .10 19% .17 70% .12
Dec
29		 Houston Christian A A+ F F D- 41% 25% 34% D- D- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C- A+ B+ F C- B+ F+ 19% 45% 36% A+ C- A+ F A B+ D F F
1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47 0.92 89% 38% 29% +3 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27
Jan
2		 West Virginia A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 30% 23% 47% D+ A+ A+ D+ A C+ B+ F C A- F A+ A+ B+ 31% 18% 51% B B+ A+ F+ B+ A- A F C+
1.32 85% 30% 55% +21 -1 1.42 43% 0.9 .39 18% .30 60% .18 0.98 71% 25% 26% -4 0 0.93 23% 1.3 .30 20% .25 83% .21
Jan
7		 Baylor C A+ C- F D+ 18% 53% 29% F D A C- B+ C A F B- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 15% 38% 48% A+ A+ D- D F+ A F A+ F
1.01 78% 38% 21% -2 -6 0.88 38% 0.9 .36 17% .35 60% .21 0.87 57% 17% 13% -23 -4 0.48 43% 1.2 .51 20% .53 59% .31
Jan
10		 Oklahoma St. B B- F B- C+ 44% 28% 28% D C C A+ B A A+ A A+ A+ C- B+ C- C+ 32% 21% 47% A+ B A+ F A+ A F F+ F
1.14 59% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.3 .38 14% .48 80% .38 0.98 60% 30% 36% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .45 81% .36
Jan
13		 Kansas B- C- F B B- 46% 10% 44% A+ B+ A+ F C F+ C- F D D B- F F F 38% 19% 42% D+ F D- A+ A C A+ F+ A
0.97 50% 0% 35% -7 +2 0.92 40% 0.5 .21 18% .21 55% .11 1.29 60% 60% 45% +12 0 1.27 37% 0.8 .30 14% .21 83% .18
Jan
17		 Cincinnati A- F+ F A+ C+ 44% 16% 40% A- B- A- A A B- A+ D- A+ D C- F C+ D+ 24% 27% 49% A C F A- C- F+ A F+ B
1.06 42% 29% 41% -4 +1 0.95 31% 1.3 .40 18% .50 63% .31 1.19 62% 53% 33% +5 -2 1.07 42% 0.9 .36 12% .21 75% .15
Jan
20		 Central Florida A+ A- F C- B- 51% 8% 42% A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B+ F C- A+ B C- A+ A+ 22% 20% 57% B+ A+ C C- C- A+ A+ F A+
1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20 0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11
Jan
24		 Oklahoma St. A C- A+ B+ B+ 41% 7% 51% B+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ B C- C B- 33% 17% 50% A B C+ A- B+ A D- D F+
1.19 53% 67% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.6 .67 26% .52 78% .40 1.01 53% 38% 35% -1 0 1.00 31% 0.8 .25 20% .41 78% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Colorado A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C A+ A- A+ A+ A- A+ C- A A+ F A+ A+ A- 31% 24% 45% A- A- A+ C- A+ C+ C C+ C+
1.42 83% 42% 50% +20 -1 1.40 35% 1.3 .46 13% .41 71% .29 0.98 80% 25% 27% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.0 .15 15% .33 74% .24
Feb
1		 Kansas St. A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A+ B+ F+ C B- B B B+ A+ B+ D+ B A- 25% 34% 42% A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ B+ A+
1.33 71% 40% 57% +20 0 1.42 38% 1.0 .38 17% .34 75% .25 0.86 54% 39% 32% -2 -3 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 20% .10 67% .07
Feb
7		 Baylor B A+ C+ D- A 33% 28% 40% A A+ A+ F C+ F A+ F A- B F A A A+ 17% 25% 58% C+ A+ A+ F F C A+ A- A+
1.15 93% 42% 29% +10 -1 1.19 45% 0.6 .29 22% .39 63% .25 1.10 75% 33% 29% -3 -2 0.92 26% 2.6 .68 14% .17 67% .11
Feb
10		 TCU F A F F F 45% 10% 45% A D- C A B- F F F F A+ A+ C B A+ 48% 17% 35% D+ A+ B F D+ A+ F A- D
0.80 68% 0% 18% -10 +2 0.86 26% 1.2 .31 25% .16 25% .04 0.91 41% 38% 31% -10 +1 0.85 31% 1.3 .41 22% .43 65% .28
Feb
14		 Kansas A+ C+ B+ B A+ 27% 25% 48% C- A B A+ A+ A+ A F C+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ 21% 40% 40% A+ A+ B- C+ B- A+ C+ D+ C
1.17 54% 42% 35% 0 -1 1.00 31% 1.5 .49 10% .30 53% .16 0.89 56% 18% 35% -8 -4 0.79 30% 1.2 .36 21% .30 80% .24
Feb
16		 Houston A+ A A A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B A+ D+ C- D+ A+ A- F D+ B+ C+ D+ C B 16% 24% 59% C B- A+ F B- C B+ A+ A
1.20 67% 44% 40% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 5% .40 50% .20 1.15 63% 42% 34% +2 -2 1.02 28% 1.3 .38 12% .21 64% .14
Feb
21		 BYU B- A+ F D+ B 25% 33% 42% C- B- D- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ F A B C- 32% 21% 47% C C- B- F F B D+ B+ C
1.03 83% 25% 30% -1 -3 0.96 18% 2.7 .48 15% .33 79% .26 1.18 93% 30% 32% +8 -1 1.17 35% 1.7 .59 16% .36 70% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.1 6.6 7.9 14.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 6.1 40.1 3.7 50.0 3rd
4th 0.8 15.7 3.3 19.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 7.2 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.3 5.0 29.1 50.1 15.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 25.6% 4.0    0.1 1.0 2.4 0.5
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 4.0% 4.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 15.6% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.0 4.2 7.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 50.1% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.7 4.5 17.3 18.8 8.3 1.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 29.1% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3.5 0.6 4.6 9.9 9.6 3.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 5.0% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 4.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 100.0%
10-8 0.3% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.9 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 1.6 48.0 48.9 3.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.4% 100.0% 1.9 26.1 55.8 16.8 1.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.8% 100.0% 2.1 21.0 48.6 26.4 3.9 0.1