Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.8#4
Expected Predictive Rating+25.7#3
Pace70.5#124
Improvement+0.3#168

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#10
First Shot+8.8#14
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#50
Layup/Dunks+5.4#26
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#250
Freethrows+2.8#36
Improvement-2.2#302

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#7
First Shot+7.5#14
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#26
Layups/Dunks+5.5#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#111
Freethrows+2.6#33
Improvement+2.5#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.8% 12.4% 5.5%
#1 Seed 42.7% 50.6% 30.0%
Top 2 Seed 76.7% 84.0% 64.9%
Top 4 Seed 97.8% 99.3% 95.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.7 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 45.9% 57.4% 27.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.7% 98.5% 96.5%
Sweet Sixteen74.0% 75.9% 71.0%
Elite Eight47.8% 50.4% 43.5%
Final Four27.6% 29.5% 24.7%
Championship Game15.2% 16.7% 12.7%
National Champion8.0% 9.2% 6.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 5
Quad 28 - 119 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.9%    1 - 0 +11.7 -5.7 +15.4
  Nov 11, 2024 222   UMKC W 82-56 99%     2 - 0 +19.5 +11.9 +9.1
  Nov 18, 2024 325   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99%     3 - 0 +22.3 +4.4 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2024 2   Auburn L 81-83 42%     3 - 1 +21.0 +14.5 +6.6
  Nov 26, 2024 64   Dayton W 89-84 87%     4 - 1 +13.6 +20.7 -7.0
  Nov 27, 2024 84   Colorado W 99-71 90%     5 - 1 +34.7 +26.1 +7.4
  Dec 04, 2024 16   Marquette W 81-70 76%     6 - 1 +24.6 +14.9 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2024 289   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +31.9 +19.7 +9.7
  Dec 12, 2024 37   @ Iowa W 89-80 71%     8 - 1 +24.2 +18.5 +5.5
  Dec 15, 2024 234   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 99%     9 - 1 +25.1 +5.9 +19.5
  Dec 22, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 99-72 99.6%    10 - 1 +11.9 +10.8 -0.3
  Dec 30, 2024 84   @ Colorado W 79-69 85%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +19.7 +14.1 +5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 15   Baylor W 74-55 75%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +32.7 +12.2 +21.9
  Jan 07, 2025 73   Utah W 82-59 93%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +27.4 +11.8 +15.7
  Jan 11, 2025 21   @ Texas Tech W 85-84 OT 58%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +19.8 +11.3 +8.4
  Jan 15, 2025 6   Kansas W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 18, 2025 33   @ West Virginia W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 21, 2025 85   Central Florida W 85-68 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 58   @ Arizona St. W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 27, 2025 13   @ Arizona W 80-79 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 93   Kansas St. W 83-65 96%    
  Feb 03, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 65   TCU W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 11, 2025 85   @ Central Florida W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 15, 2025 42   Cincinnati W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 18, 2025 84   Colorado W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 25, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 82-68 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 13   Arizona W 83-76 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 45   BYU W 83-70 88%    
  Mar 08, 2025 93   @ Kansas St. W 80-68 87%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.6 14.1 14.8 7.5 1.8 45.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 6.2 11.8 6.7 1.2 0.1 26.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.0 2.9 0.3 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.5 1.8 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.3 8.8 16.2 21.4 21.1 16.0 7.6 1.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
19-1 99.1% 7.5    7.2 0.3
18-2 92.5% 14.8    11.8 3.0 0.0
17-3 66.9% 14.1    7.6 5.6 0.9 0.0
16-4 31.0% 6.6    1.7 3.0 1.7 0.3
15-5 6.3% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.9% 45.9 30.1 12.2 3.0 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.8% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.2 1.5 0.3 100.0%
19-1 7.6% 100.0% 37.9% 62.1% 1.2 6.2 1.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 16.0% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.3 11.2 4.6 0.2 100.0%
17-3 21.1% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.5 12.0 7.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
16-4 21.4% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 1.8 7.8 9.7 3.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.3 3.3 6.6 4.7 1.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 8.8% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 2.8 0.7 2.6 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.3% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.4 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.0% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.7% 100.0% 2.1% 97.9% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 1.9 42.7 34.0 15.2 5.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 87.9 12.1