LSU
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.2 #49
Expected Predictive Rating +9.8 #62
Pace 68.4 #193
Improvement -5.6 #349

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 B A- B B+ C+
Defense #76 B- B C- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.30 #45 +5.9 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.82 #86 +0.0 #172
Three Pointers 37% #260 1.06 #107 -1.1 #224
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #51 +4.9 #55
Freethrows 0.35 #46 77% #45 0.27 #23
Second Chance 34.2% #80 1.27 #5 0.43 #21
Turnovers 14.5% #53
Total Offense +7.6 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.06 #65 +3.7 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.68 #62 +0.3 #162
Three Pointers 43% #119 1.04 #220 -1.4 #251
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #94 +2.6 #94
Freethrows 0.29 #148 67% #8 0.19 #81
Second Chance 29.6% #136 0.87 #17 0.26 #49
Turnovers 15.5% #249
Total Defense +3.6 #76

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #123 -0.8% #100
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #52 -4.2% #90
Possession Length 16.5 #102 18.5 #338
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #87 0.12 #38
Improvement -2.4 #314 -3.2 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 22.1% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.1% 21.7% 8.5%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.4
.500 or above 91.1% 97.9% 84.3%
.500 or above in Conference 2.8% 4.8% 0.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 8.6% 24.0%
First Four8.1% 10.8% 5.3%
First Round11.7% 16.9% 6.5%
Second Round4.6% 6.7% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 24 - 27 - 12
Quad 33 - 210 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 226 Tarleton St. W 96 - 60 94% +19  1 - 0 +29 +24 A+ A+ C+ +7 A+ A F
 Mon, Nov 10 218 New Orleans W 93 - 58 94% +17  2 - 0 +29 +11 B C+ A +16 A+ A F
 Thu, Nov 13 188 Florida International W 98 - 81 93% +10  3 - 0 +12 +13 C A+ B+ -3 B C F+
 Tue, Nov 18 348 Alcorn St. W 107 - 81 98% +7  4 - 0 +11 +23 D A+ B -13 D- F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 241 Nebraska Omaha W 99 - 73 95% +16  5 - 0 +18 +13 A+ D- C +3 C A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 162 Drake W 71 - 62 86% +9  6 - 0 +9 -0 C+ F A +9 A A+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 94 DePaul W 96 - 63 70% +23  7 - 0 +39 +29 A+ A+ D +10 B- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 127 @Boston College W 78 - 69 OT 72% +4  8 - 0 +14 +6 C- B- B +8 B- B+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 17 Texas Tech L 58 - 82 27% -18  8 - 1 -6 -9 F D+ A +3 C A- A
 Sat, Dec 13 39 SMU W 89 - 77 41% +7  9 - 1 +25 +28 A+ A+ C -2 C B- C+
 Fri, Dec 19 271 SE Louisiana W 78 - 65 96% +12  10 - 1 +4 +15 A+ D- A+ -9 C+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 339 Prairie View W 104 - 90 98% +2  11 - 1 -0 +18 C- A+ A- -20 F C C
 Mon, Dec 29 250 Southern Miss W 90 - 62 95% +14  12 - 1 +20 +15 C+ A- A+ +5 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 27 @Texas A&M L 72 - 75 24% -4  12 - 2 0 - 1 +16 +6 C B D+ +10 B- A+ A
 Tue, Jan 6 91 South Carolina L 68 - 78 78% -16  12 - 3 0 - 2 -7 +3 C C F -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 12 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 84 17% -11  12 - 4 0 - 3 +11 +9 B+ C+ C +2 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 26 Kentucky L 74 - 75 44% +8  12 - 5 0 - 4 +12 +11 A+ B- C +1 B B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 54 Missouri W 78 - 70 66% +7  13 - 5 1 - 4 +15 +17 C- A+ A+ -1 A+ D+ C+
 Tue, Jan 20 5 @Florida L 61 - 79 11% -10  13 - 6 1 - 5 +7 +3 C- A+ C +3 A- C+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 22 @Arkansas L 81 - 85 22% +1  13 - 7 1 - 6 +15 +16 C A+ A -1 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 28 73 Mississippi St. L 66 - 80 73% -18  13 - 8 1 - 7 -9 -1 C C A- -8 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 91 @South Carolina W 92 - 87 OT 58% +3  14 - 8 2 - 7 +14 +18 A+ C C+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Feb 7 34 Georgia W 84 - 83 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Arkansas L 82 - 84 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 18 @Tennessee L 69 - 78 18%
 Tue, Feb 17 31 @Texas L 76 - 82 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 Alabama L 85 - 88 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 59 @Mississippi L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 Oklahoma W 80 - 75 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 28 @Auburn L 76 - 83 24%
 Sat, Mar 7 27 Texas A&M L 80 - 81 45%
Totals 18 - 13 6 - 12 +11 +8 B A- B +4 B- B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 0.8 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 3.1 0.2 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 2.3 6.0 1.9 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 9.9 6.2 0.5 18.8 12th
13th 0.0 1.5 10.2 9.5 1.3 0.0 22.6 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 7.2 9.6 2.3 0.0 20.1 14th
15th 0.2 3.3 6.3 2.0 0.1 11.9 15th
16th 1.4 2.9 1.5 0.1 5.9 16th
Total 1.7 7.3 16.6 24.0 24.2 15.8 7.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 98.5% 98.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.5%
9-9 2.4% 87.7% 0.8% 86.9% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 87.6%
8-10 7.7% 65.1% 1.5% 63.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.0 2.7 64.6%
7-11 15.8% 32.8% 0.8% 32.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.6 0.1 10.7 32.3%
6-12 24.2% 10.3% 0.2% 10.1% 11.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 0.2 21.7 10.1%
5-13 24.0% 1.2% 0.2% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 23.7 1.0%
4-14 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 16.6 0.1%
3-15 7.3% 7.3
2-16 1.7% 1.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.4% 0.4% 15.1% 10.2 84.6 15.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%