Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#16
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#23
Pace72.0#84
Improvement-0.2#205

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#20
First Shot+6.2#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#53
Layup/Dunks+5.5#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-0.2#193

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#15
First Shot+7.0#19
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#77
Layups/Dunks+1.5#115
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#26
Freethrows+3.4#11
Improvement-0.1#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.8% 6.9% 1.3%
Top 2 Seed 14.5% 23.2% 7.2%
Top 4 Seed 52.6% 67.3% 40.3%
Top 6 Seed 86.2% 94.0% 79.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Average Seed 4.5 3.8 5.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.8% 98.2%
Conference Champion 8.4% 14.9% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round83.1% 87.6% 79.3%
Sweet Sixteen46.8% 53.2% 41.5%
Elite Eight21.1% 24.1% 18.6%
Final Four8.8% 10.1% 7.7%
Championship Game3.5% 3.9% 3.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.4% 1.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 7
Quad 25 - 213 - 9
Quad 33 - 016 - 9
Quad 48 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 271   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +21.3 -2.1 +22.7
  Nov 08, 2024 260   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 98%     2 - 0 +25.9 +10.3 +15.4
  Nov 11, 2024 340   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +16.9 +2.8 +13.4
  Nov 15, 2024 21   Marquette L 74-78 63%     3 - 1 +9.3 +10.7 -1.6
  Nov 19, 2024 352   Canisius W 108-37 99%     4 - 1 +55.5 +16.2 +33.4
  Nov 24, 2024 46   Villanova W 76-75 71%     5 - 1 +11.9 +15.2 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 251   Bucknell W 91-67 98%     6 - 1 +16.3 +10.5 +4.2
  Dec 01, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 96-58 99%     7 - 1 +26.1 +15.1 +9.5
  Dec 04, 2024 25   Ohio St. W 83-59 67%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +36.2 +11.2 +23.5
  Dec 08, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 78-83 36%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +15.4 +14.0 +1.5
  Dec 17, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 111-57 99%     9 - 2 +40.0 +29.9 +9.2
  Dec 21, 2024 104   Syracuse W 87-60 87%     10 - 2 +31.4 +11.2 +18.6
  Dec 28, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-66 99.6%    11 - 2 -4.2 +0.1 -4.1
  Jan 02, 2025 89   @ Washington L 69-75 78%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +2.7 +1.2 +1.6
  Jan 05, 2025 45   @ Oregon L 79-83 60%     11 - 4 1 - 3 +10.1 +17.5 -7.7
  Jan 10, 2025 29   UCLA W 79-61 68%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +29.8 +16.8 +13.9
  Jan 13, 2025 92   Minnesota W 77-71 89%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +9.6 +5.0 +4.5
  Jan 16, 2025 56   @ Northwestern L 74-76 OT 66%     13 - 5 3 - 4 +10.3 +3.0 +7.5
  Jan 19, 2025 48   Nebraska W 69-66 79%     14 - 5 4 - 4 +11.1 +3.9 +7.3
  Jan 23, 2025 13   @ Illinois W 91-70 38%     15 - 5 5 - 4 +40.7 +16.8 +21.4
  Jan 26, 2025 53   @ Indiana W 79-78 65%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +13.6 +20.5 -6.8
  Jan 29, 2025 17   Wisconsin W 76-68 60%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +22.1 +9.9 +12.4
  Feb 06, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 09, 2025 63   Rutgers W 81-71 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 48   @ Nebraska W 76-72 61%    
  Feb 16, 2025 60   Iowa W 88-78 84%    
  Feb 20, 2025 54   USC W 80-71 82%    
  Feb 26, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 75-73 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 50   @ Penn St. W 80-76 63%    
  Mar 05, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 76-78 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 56   Northwestern W 75-66 82%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.7 8.4 1st
2nd 1.0 7.9 6.5 0.5 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 6.8 10.2 1.6 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 11.8 3.0 0.0 18.0 4th
5th 0.8 7.8 6.3 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 6.5 1.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 1.8 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.7 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.7 10.2 19.7 26.9 22.6 12.6 3.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 82.2% 2.7    1.5 1.0 0.1
15-5 35.5% 4.5    0.7 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 5.5% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 2.2 3.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.3% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.7 1.3 1.6 0.3 100.0%
15-5 12.6% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.5 1.7 4.7 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 22.6% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.5 0.6 3.3 7.3 7.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-7 26.9% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 4.5 0.1 1.0 4.6 8.0 7.7 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 19.7% 99.7% 7.1% 92.7% 5.5 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 5.7 6.2 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 99.7%
11-9 10.2% 98.8% 4.4% 94.4% 6.4 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.0 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 98.8%
10-10 3.7% 98.1% 4.1% 94.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 98.0%
9-11 1.0% 87.8% 4.1% 83.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 87.2%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 12.9% 86.8% 4.5 3.8 10.7 18.1 20.0 18.5 15.2 7.8 3.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.4 58.9 37.9 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.6 44.7 46.8 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 1.8 28.9 58.9 12.2