Maryland
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.4 #107
Expected Predictive Rating +3.5 #118
Pace 70.1 #161
Improvement +1.8 #89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #137 C- B- C- B+ B-
Defense #82 C B B B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.06 #291 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #297 0.77 #151 -2.0 #274
Three Pointers 46% #80 0.96 #247 +1.5 #128
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #239 -2.2 #239
Freethrows 19.4 #80 79% #30 15.3 #38
Second Chance 34.0% #90 1.06 #164 0.36 #97
Turnovers 17.4% #230
Total Offense +1.1 #137

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #163 1.14 #151 -0.2 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #255 0.70 #111 +1.4 #86
Three Pointers 43% #130 1.06 #247 -1.9 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #195 -0.6 #196
Freethrows 14.0 #38 75% #284 10.5 #311
Second Chance 29.4% #129 0.94 #59 0.28 #78
Turnovers 18.6% #72
Total Defense +3.3 #82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #84 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.7% #266 0.3% #185
Possession Length 17.1 #160 17.5 #221
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #307 0.17 #165
Improvement -0.3 #213 +2.2 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.7 10.4
.500 or above 1.6% 5.5% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 41.2% 22.3% 44.2%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 110 - 11
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 15
Quad 22 - 33 - 18
Quad 33 - 26 - 20
Quad 45 - 011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 364 Coppin St. W 83 - 61 98%  +13  1 - 0 +2 +5 F C+ D- -2 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 103 Georgetown L 60 - 70 60%  -10  1 - 1 -8 -12 F C+ D +3 A B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 11 346 Alcorn St. W 84 - 64 95%  +12  2 - 1 +5 +1 C- D+ F +3 C- C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 110 @Marquette W 89 - 82 39%  +3  3 - 1 +14 +13 A+ C A+ +0 A F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 292 Mount St. Mary's W 95 - 90 OT 91%  +2  4 - 1 -5 +9 C B- C -15 F D B+
 Mon, Nov 24 142 UNLV W 74 - 67 63%  -0  5 - 1 +8 -1 D+ B F +9 A- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Gonzaga L 61 - 100 8%  -19  5 - 2 -19 -3 D- A F -15 F D A-
 Wed, Nov 26 13 Alabama L 72 - 105 10%  -20  5 - 3 -15 -2 C F A -10 F F A
 Tue, Dec 2 316 Wagner W 89 - 63 93%  +9  6 - 3 +14 +5 F C B+ +7 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 20 @Iowa L 64 - 83 9%  -15  6 - 4 0 - 1 +0 +0 F A+ D- +0 C+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 13 1 Michigan L 83 - 101 5%  -3  6 - 5 0 - 2 +6 +24 A+ A+ B- -18 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 22 @Virginia L 72 - 80 9%  +0  6 - 6 +11 +10 A+ B F +0 C+ A+ D
 Sun, Dec 28 250 Old Dominion W 73 - 58 87%  +18  7 - 6 +7 -2 C F B+ +9 A+ B- B+
 Fri, Jan 2 65 Oregon L 54 - 64 44%  -5  7 - 7 0 - 3 -4 -12 F D+ C+ +7 C- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 7 25 Indiana L 66 - 84 22%  -6  7 - 8 0 - 4 -5 -1 D+ A B- -5 A D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 38 @UCLA L 66 - 78 14% 
 Tue, Jan 13 46 @USC L 71 - 81 17% 
 Sun, Jan 18 105 Penn St. W 76 - 73 61% 
 Wed, Jan 21 9 @Illinois L 65 - 84 4% 
 Sat, Jan 24 14 @Michigan St. L 61 - 78 6% 
 Sun, Feb 1 4 Purdue L 66 - 81 8% 
 Thu, Feb 5 30 Ohio St. L 71 - 78 26% 
 Sun, Feb 8 76 @Minnesota L 65 - 71 28% 
 Wed, Feb 11 20 Iowa L 65 - 74 21% 
 Sun, Feb 15 131 @Rutgers L 71 - 72 47% 
 Wed, Feb 18 60 @Northwestern L 70 - 78 24% 
 Sat, Feb 21 47 Washington L 72 - 75 38% 
 Wed, Feb 25 23 @Nebraska L 65 - 79 9% 
 Sun, Mar 1 131 Rutgers W 74 - 68 70% 
 Wed, Mar 4 43 @Wisconsin L 71 - 81 17% 
 Sun, Mar 8 9 Illinois L 68 - 81 12% 
Totals 11 - 20 4 - 16 +4 +1 C- B- C- +3 C B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 4.8 13th
14th 0.3 2.5 4.8 1.4 0.1 9.1 14th
15th 0.2 2.7 6.9 3.3 0.4 13.5 15th
16th 0.1 2.7 8.9 5.6 0.8 0.0 18.0 16th
17th 0.3 3.4 10.7 7.7 1.5 0.1 23.6 17th
18th 1.4 6.0 10.1 6.7 1.4 0.0 25.6 18th
Total 1.4 6.3 13.6 20.3 21.0 16.6 11.1 5.8 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.3% 15.5% 15.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 15.5%
9-11 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.9 2.6%
8-12 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 2.5 0.4%
7-13 5.8% 5.8
6-14 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 11.1
5-15 16.6% 16.6
4-16 21.0% 21.0
3-17 20.3% 20.3
2-18 13.6% 13.6
1-19 6.3% 6.3
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.5 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%