Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#50
Pace69.1#170
Improvement-2.5#299

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#38
First Shot+6.2#39
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks+1.5#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#106
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement-2.6#311

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#38
First Shot+10.0#5
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#359
Layups/Dunks+7.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#51
Freethrows-0.9#250
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 5.6% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 12.0% 22.2% 7.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.8% 75.1% 50.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.9% 74.3% 50.0%
Average Seed 8.2 7.6 8.5
.500 or above 82.8% 92.8% 78.7%
.500 or above in Conference 51.0% 69.4% 43.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.7%
First Four9.4% 7.6% 10.2%
First Round53.4% 71.7% 46.0%
Second Round30.2% 42.2% 25.3%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 15.5% 7.7%
Elite Eight3.8% 6.2% 2.8%
Final Four1.3% 2.1% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 29.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 46 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 14
Quad 32 - 013 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 35   Texas W 80-72 52%     1 - 0 +20.3 +11.9 +8.4
  Nov 11, 2024 199   Youngstown St. W 81-47 94%     2 - 0 +29.3 +9.4 +20.0
  Nov 15, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 64-78 29%     2 - 1 +4.6 +3.4 +0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 256   Evansville W 80-30 96%     3 - 1 +41.8 +10.4 +33.2
  Nov 22, 2024 265   Campbell W 104-60 97%     4 - 1 +35.3 +24.5 +9.0
  Nov 25, 2024 329   Green Bay W 102-69 98%     5 - 1 +19.6 +17.5 +0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 32   Pittsburgh L 90-91 OT 62%     5 - 2 +8.7 +14.0 -5.3
  Dec 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 59-83 28%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -5.0 -8.1 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 72   Rutgers W 80-66 79%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +18.4 +15.3 +3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 2   Auburn L 53-91 17%     6 - 4 -15.0 -8.5 -9.2
  Dec 17, 2024 205   Valparaiso W 95-73 95%     7 - 4 +16.6 +12.2 +2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 17   Kentucky W 85-65 36%     8 - 4 +36.5 +18.9 +18.3
  Dec 29, 2024 175   Indiana St. W 103-83 93%     9 - 4 +16.5 +14.3 +0.0
  Jan 03, 2025 11   Michigan St. L 62-69 43%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +7.6 -1.5 +9.0
  Jan 06, 2025 108   @ Minnesota W 89-88 2OT 73%     10 - 5 2 - 2 +7.5 +9.4 -2.0
  Jan 09, 2025 27   Oregon L 71-73 58%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +8.8 +1.2 +7.7
  Jan 14, 2025 24   @ Wisconsin L 72-78 29%    
  Jan 17, 2025 52   Indiana W 76-71 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 14   @ Purdue L 70-77 25%    
  Jan 27, 2025 37   Iowa W 83-79 63%    
  Jan 30, 2025 53   @ Penn St. L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 02, 2025 12   @ Illinois L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 19   Maryland L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 92   Washington W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 10   Michigan L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 57   Northwestern W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 23, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 60   @ USC W 74-73 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 48   Nebraska W 75-70 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 52   @ Indiana L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 1.8 0.1 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.3 1.7 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 4.4 4.1 0.4 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 6.4 1.5 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 5.6 3.9 0.2 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 2.7 5.6 0.9 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 5.4 2.7 0.1 8.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 3.9 1.4 0.1 6.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 2.3 1.6 0.2 4.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 5.2 9.5 14.0 16.8 17.0 14.6 9.7 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0%
16-4 68.6% 0.1    0.1 0.1
15-5 20.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.9% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.6% 99.9% 14.7% 85.2% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 5.9% 99.7% 5.7% 94.0% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-8 9.7% 99.0% 3.4% 95.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 99.0%
11-9 14.6% 94.0% 3.2% 90.9% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 4.6 3.3 1.4 0.2 0.9 93.8%
10-10 17.0% 83.7% 1.6% 82.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.5 2.3 0.0 2.8 83.5%
9-11 16.8% 51.0% 0.6% 50.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.1 4.8 0.3 8.2 50.7%
8-12 14.0% 13.9% 0.6% 13.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 12.1 13.4%
7-13 9.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.4 0.8%
6-14 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 5.2
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 57.8% 2.2% 55.7% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.2 9.0 10.2 8.9 8.5 8.7 0.5 42.2 56.9%