Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.4 36
Results Rating +13.4 44
Pace 67.7 201
Improvement +1.4 129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 21 A B B- A- D+
Defense B 58 B+ C+ C C+ A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 A+ 72% 2 +3.2 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 156 A+ 50% 6 +4.9 15
Three Pointers 39% 221 B- 36% 96 +0.2 171
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 295 A +9.1 3
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 15
Second Chance B 35.4% 50 C+ 1.08 109 B 0.38 54
Turnovers B- 15.2% 82
Freethrows B 0.35 43 B+ 77% 24 A- 0.27 18
Total Offense A- +9.8 21

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 42 B 8.7% 58
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 142 C- 6.0% 249
Three Pointers D+ 80% 271 B+ 0.2% 20
Total C 57% 155 B- 4.7% 79

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 345 B- 54% 79 -5.8 25
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 12 C- 40% 253 +3.9 359
Three Pointers 40% 217 B+ 30% 26 -3.1 58
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -1.7 9 B -3.4 55
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.92 38
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 122 C+ 0.99 116 C+ 0.29 104
Turnovers C 17.2% 153
Freethrows C+ 0.28 114 C 73% 211 C+ 0.21 124
Total Defense B +4.6 58

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 100 C 11.6% 148
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 221 C- 3.8% 245
Three Pointers C 83% 146 C- 0.8% 184
Total B- 51% 82 C- 5.0% 225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.5 88 18.6 339
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 248 0.10 19
Improvement +1.8 #103 -0.4 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 42 34 25
Results Rating Rank 51 41 29
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 13 - 7
Conference Finish 10 8 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None 11 7
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 3% 7% 1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67% 85% 62%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67% 85% 62%
Average Seed 9.5 8.8 9.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 96%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four21% 12% 24%
First Round59% 80% 52%
Second Round29% 43% 25%
Sweet Sixteen7% 10% 6%
Elite Eight3% 4% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 11
Quad 27 - 19 - 12
Quad 35 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 325 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99% +13  97% 1 - 0 C+ +3 A +13 A+ C+ C- F -13 F+ F+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 261 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 97% +14  99% 2 - 0 A- +17 A- +11 A+ B F B+ +6 A- D- B
 Tue, Nov 11 173 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 94% +6  51% 3 - 0 A +18 A- +9 D+ A+ A+ A+ +12 A D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 86 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 84% -3  19% 4 - 0 C+ +5 D- -7 C F C+ A+ +12 B A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 288 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 98% +25  100% 5 - 0 A +22 B- +5 B+ C- F+ A+ +16 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 284 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98% +25  97% 6 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +30 A+ A+ B+ A +10 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 98 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 72% -4  19% 6 - 1 B- +7 C- -1 C- B- D- A- +8 A- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 69 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 62% +0  51% 7 - 1 1 - 0 A- +15 A +14 A+ C B+ C+ +2 B+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 5 Illinois L 80 - 88 31% -4  8% 7 - 2 1 - 1 B+ +12 A- +11 B+ A+ A C+ +1 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 55 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 67% -4  13% 8 - 2 B +11 B+ +8 D+ A+ A+ B- +3 C B B-
 Sat, Dec 20 27 North Carolina L 70 - 71 47% -4  13% 8 - 3 B+ +14 B +7 B D+ A+ A- +7 A C D+
 Tue, Dec 23 296 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 98% +13  94% 9 - 3 A- +15 A+ +16 A+ F+ D+ C+ +0 A- F+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 111 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 78% -1  46% 10 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ B- D+ C- -3 B- F+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 13 Nebraska L 69 - 72 44% -5  9% 10 - 4 2 - 2 B+ +13 B +6 A+ F A+ A- +7 A- A A-
 Thu, Jan 8 89 @Oregon W 72 - 62 69% +8  97% 11 - 4 3 - 2 A +19 A- +10 C+ A+ D A +10 A+ B F
 Sun, Jan 11 48 @Washington L 74 - 81 51% -0  48% 11 - 5 3 - 3 B- +7 A +12 B B C- D -5 C B F+
 Sat, Jan 17 37 UCLA W 86 - 74 64% +9  99% 12 - 5 4 - 3 A +23 A+ +25 A A+ A- C -1 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 59 Minnesota W 82 - 74 OT 79% +2  70% 13 - 5 5 - 3 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ A+ A B +4 A- B+ F+
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 62 - 74 9% -2  28% 13 - 6 5 - 4 A- +18 B +6 B A- D+ A +10 A+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 26 115 Penn St. W 84 - 78 90% +8  96% 14 - 6 6 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 A F A+ C- -2 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 30 @Wisconsin L 82 - 92 37% -4  24% 14 - 7 6 - 5 B- +8 A +13 C A A+ D -5 D+ B+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 104 @Maryland W 82 - 62 75% +11  91% 15 - 7 7 - 5 A+ +27 A+ +21 A- A+ A- A +9 D+ D+ A+
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 61 - 82 19% -10  0% 15 - 8 7 - 6 C+ +3 C +1 B+ C C C -0 B- A+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 56 USC W 89 - 82 76% -0  38% 16 - 8 8 - 6 B+ +14 A +14 A+ C- B- C -0 A- C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 22 Virginia L 66 - 70 39% +2  59% 16 - 9 B+ +13 C+ +3 A- F A A +10 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 30 Wisconsin W 86 - 69 60% +11  94% 17 - 9 9 - 6 A+ +29 A+ +16 A+ A+ F A+ +14 A C- A
 Sun, Feb 22 10 @Michigan St. L 69 - 77 22%
 Wed, Feb 25 26 @Iowa L 71 - 75 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 7 Purdue L 75 - 79 35%
 Wed, Mar 4 115 @Penn St. W 83 - 75 79%
 Sat, Mar 7 38 Indiana W 79 - 75 64%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 A- +10 B+ A D+ B +5 B- B+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A+ A+ B- A 35% 40% 39% D+ A B C+ B B- B B+ A- B B- C- B+ B 31% 30% 40% A B+ C+ C+ C+ C C+ C C+
1.23 72% 50% 36% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.1 .38 15% .35 77% .27 1.02 54% 40% 30% -3 -2 0.92 29% 1.0 .29 17% .28 73% .26
Nov
3		 IU Indianapolis A A+ A+ A A+ 43% 15% 41% C- A+ A F+ C+ C- A+ B+ A+ F F F B F 21% 27% 52% A- F+ C- F F+ C- F C+ F
1.37 85% 57% 42% +20 +1 1.43 46% 1.0 .46 20% .77 79% .61 1.19 71% 67% 29% +7 -2 1.12 29% 1.3 .38 15% .27 70% .19
Nov
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 56% C A+ D- A+ B F D+ C+ D+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 38% 24% 38% B+ A- C+ F D- B D A- C-
1.29 81% 60% 59% +31 +1 1.67 29% 1.5 .43 26% .24 77% .19 0.94 71% 15% 24% -6 0 0.89 19% 1.4 .28 18% .29 65% .18
Nov
11		 Appalachian St. A- A+ C- F C- 21% 23% 55% F+ D+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ A- B- A 24% 29% 47% A+ A A+ F D+ C- A+ C+ A+
1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42 0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10
Nov
16		 Notre Dame D- A D- C B- 21% 34% 45% F C F F F C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F C+ C 31% 50% 19% A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ F+ A+ C-
0.96 70% 31% 33% 0 -3 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 15% .41 83% .34 0.94 47% 54% 33% +4 -4 1.02 23% 0.3 .06 19% .37 60% .22
Nov
20		 Western Michigan B- A+ A+ D+ A- 33% 16% 51% D+ B+ A+ F C- F+ A- A- A A+ A- A A+ A+ 21% 42% 38% A+ A+ B+ B B+ A C+ C- C
1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30 0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19
Nov
25		 Mount St. Mary's A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 28% 50% F+ A+ B- A+ A+ B+ D A+ C A F F A+ C+ 25% 23% 52% A+ B A+ A+ A+ F C+ A+ B+
1.54 77% 75% 48% +25 -2 1.48 33% 1.6 .52 11% .29 84% .25 0.82 69% 58% 19% -5 -1 0.90 19% 0.4 .07 18% .30 56% .17
Nov
28		 Pittsburgh C- B+ C F C- 36% 17% 47% C+ C- C+ B B- D- C+ A+ B+ A- D A+ B B 36% 35% 29% A+ A- C A+ A+ F B- B B
1.01 65% 38% 27% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.0 .28 20% .29 87% .25 1.03 65% 26% 31% -3 -2 0.93 36% 0.4 .13 8% .27 63% .17
Dec
6		 Northwestern A A+ B D- A+ 50% 23% 27% B A+ C- B- C B+ B F C C+ C+ C A- A- 38% 20% 42% C- B+ F F F A+ B- F D+
1.20 85% 42% 29% +12 +1 1.27 30% 1.0 .30 15% .33 60% .20 1.15 58% 40% 29% -3 0 0.96 39% 1.8 .70 20% .31 89% .28
Dec
9		 Illinois A- A+ A- D A- 24% 26% 50% C+ B+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ C+ B+ C- F D 23% 26% 51% A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F F F
1.15 69% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 20% 1.9 .37 9% .33 71% .24 1.26 55% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.17 28% 0.9 .25 13% .53 91% .48
Dec
13		 West Virginia B+ B- A+ F C- 35% 32% 33% D- D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A+ B- F D+ 31% 27% 42% A+ C B C+ B B- F F F
1.07 57% 47% 15% -7 -2 0.85 32% 1.9 .62 12% .33 88% .29 1.06 38% 36% 50% +3 -1 1.06 29% 1.1 .32 18% .50 76% .38
Dec
20		 North Carolina B D+ A+ F A- 24% 45% 31% F B A- F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- B- C+ B+ A 36% 15% 49% C A B- D+ C D+ A+ A+ A+
1.08 50% 55% 27% +2 -4 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 9% .32 84% .27 1.10 58% 38% 31% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 11% .23 54% .12
Dec
23		 Grambling St. A+ A+ A+ B A+ 44% 20% 36% C- A+ A F F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ A A- 33% 26% 41% B+ A- F+ D- F+ B- F C- F
1.33 85% 78% 38% +22 +1 1.47 43% 0.6 .24 21% .47 84% .40 0.94 40% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.1 .36 22% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Rutgers A+ A+ F A+ A+ 48% 24% 29% B- A+ A+ F B- D+ A+ A A+ C- C F A+ B- 33% 29% 38% C- B- F B+ F+ D B- D+ C+
1.29 75% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 50% 0.7 .35 19% .46 83% .38 1.18 56% 50% 22% -4 -1 0.92 47% 1.0 .47 13% .31 76% .24
Jan
5		 Nebraska B D+ A+ A- A+ 30% 26% 44% B A+ F F F A+ C F+ D+ A- C- F A+ A 35% 14% 51% C+ A- B- A+ A A- D F+ D-
1.01 56% 50% 38% +5 -1 1.09 12% 0.5 .06 12% .22 62% .13 1.06 67% 57% 27% 0 +1 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 18% .30 82% .25
Jan
8		 Oregon A- A+ F F C+ 40% 24% 36% B C+ A+ B+ A+ D A+ B- A+ A A+ D A+ A+ 28% 18% 54% B+ A+ C B+ B F D+ C- D+
1.15 71% 30% 27% -1 0 1.00 43% 1.0 .43 19% .45 78% .35 0.99 36% 44% 22% -15 0 0.72 35% 1.0 .35 11% .36 75% .27
Jan
11		 Washington A A+ D+ D+ B 33% 29% 38% C B A+ F B C- B- A+ A D D+ F+ C+ C- 28% 36% 36% A C A D B F+ F F+ F
1.15 71% 33% 30% 0 -1 1.00 46% 0.7 .32 17% .28 87% .24 1.26 64% 50% 33% +6 -3 1.08 29% 1.2 .35 11% .40 83% .33
Jan
17		 UCLA A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 23% 34% 43% F A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C D B- F C+ 17% 47% 36% A+ B+ D+ A+ B F C D+ C
1.38 82% 50% 30% +7 -3 1.11 48% 1.4 .68 16% .48 84% .40 1.18 67% 36% 42% +5 -5 1.02 36% 0.9 .33 8% .33 79% .26
Jan
20		 Minnesota A- A+ A- D- A- 33% 28% 39% C- B+ A A A+ A B+ C B+ B F+ A+ B- B+ 29% 27% 45% A+ A- A C+ B+ F+ F+ F F
1.17 72% 47% 29% +4 -1 1.07 37% 1.1 .40 14% .30 72% .22 1.05 71% 23% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 13% .41 80% .33
Jan
23		 Michigan B C A+ F B+ 24% 34% 42% D+ B A- B+ A- D+ D D- D- A D- F A+ A+ 47% 5% 49% D+ A+ D- F F A+ F A+ D+
0.95 50% 47% 24% -5 -3 0.86 33% 1.1 .36 20% .17 67% .12 1.14 70% 50% 19% -5 +3 0.98 44% 1.9 .85 22% .49 60% .29
Jan
26		 Penn St. B+ A+ A+ C A+ 27% 33% 41% F A F F F A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ F F+ D+ 25% 23% 52% A C- F+ F F A+ F F F
1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27 1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wisconsin A D- A C- C+ 25% 27% 47% D+ C A B A A+ B- A+ A D D F C+ C- 47% 11% 42% D D+ A D- B+ F C+ F D
1.17 47% 50% 32% -1 -2 0.97 33% 1.1 .36 10% .28 89% .25 1.31 67% 67% 33% +7 +2 1.19 23% 1.3 .30 7% .32 90% .29
Feb
5		 Maryland A+ B+ A+ C- A 41% 29% 29% D A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A F F B D 24% 20% 56% B+ D+ D C- D+ A+ B- A+ A+
1.33 65% 58% 33% +8 -1 1.17 35% 1.8 .62 13% .56 60% .34 1.01 70% 50% 30% +2 -1 1.05 39% 1.1 .43 26% .33 53% .18
Feb
8		 Michigan C D- B+ C A- 25% 35% 40% D+ B+ C C+ C C A A+ A+ C B- B+ F C+ 44% 22% 35% A+ B- D- A+ A+ D A+ F A+
0.92 42% 41% 32% -4 -3 0.88 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 88% .26 1.24 58% 33% 47% +6 0 1.15 44% 0.8 .36 12% .12 86% .10
Feb
11		 USC A A+ A+ C+ A+ 24% 34% 42% F A+ B- F+ C- B- A+ A+ A+ C D+ C- A- B- 28% 44% 28% A+ A- C- C+ C D- F C F
1.21 75% 65% 33% +13 -3 1.22 31% 0.8 .23 16% .40 96% .39 1.11 64% 41% 29% +1 -4 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 14% .52 73% .38
Feb
14		 Virginia C+ B+ C A+ A+ 27% 49% 24% F A- F F F A F F+ F A C- A B A 31% 31% 38% A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F B- F
1.00 60% 37% 46% +4 -4 1.02 17% 0.7 .11 12% .16 67% .10 1.06 62% 31% 31% -3 -2 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 18% .60 69% .41
Feb
17		 Wisconsin A+ A+ F A+ A+ 29% 33% 39% D- A+ A+ B A+ F A D B+ A+ D- D A+ B+ 25% 29% 45% A+ A B- D- C- A B+ A+ A+
1.25 79% 31% 53% +14 -2 1.27 39% 1.1 .43 20% .35 68% .24 1.00 69% 47% 26% 0 -2 0.98 29% 1.3 .38 17% .28 50% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 3rd
4th 0.3 0.9 1.2 4th
5th 0.4 4.6 0.7 5.7 5th
6th 0.1 5.8 5.5 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 4.3 14.8 1.3 20.4 7th
8th 0.8 16.9 8.6 0.1 26.5 8th
9th 0.1 7.7 12.4 0.5 20.7 9th
10th 2.6 9.6 1.0 13.2 10th
11th 0.4 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 3.2 18.2 34.8 30.1 11.8 1.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.9% 99.5% 1.8% 97.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
13-7 11.8% 95.7% 1.1% 94.6% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 3.4 2.6 1.3 0.2 0.5 95.7%
12-8 30.1% 85.5% 0.8% 84.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.6 8.3 5.0 0.0 4.4 85.4%
11-9 34.8% 62.3% 0.5% 61.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.3 11.4 0.5 13.1 62.1%
10-10 18.2% 34.4% 0.4% 34.0% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 4.6 0.6 12.0 34.1%
9-11 3.2% 8.3% 0.2% 8.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.9 8.1%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.1% 0.7% 66.5% 9.5 32.9 66.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 2.7 2.7 32.4 48.6 10.8 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 98.3% 6.2 1.7 20.7 40.5 32.2 2.5 0.8
Lose Out 1.3% 0.8% 11.0 0.8