Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.2 #30
Expected Predictive Rating +12.5 #43
Pace 68.8 #196
Improvement +0.5 #152

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #20 A+ C+ B- A+ C-
Defense #53 A- B C C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #207 1.46 #3 +5.0 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #132 1.00 #9 +3.8 #32
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.08 #92 +0.9 #147
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #7 +9.6 #7
Freethrows 21.2 #20 77% #50 16.4 #14
Second Chance 32.7% #123 1.07 #158 0.35 #122
Turnovers 15.4% #103
Total Offense +9.1 #20

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.05 #61 +6.3 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.80 #256 -3.7 #357
Three Pointers 41% #185 0.86 #36 +3.0 #73
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #40 +5.6 #40
Freethrows 14.9 #59 80% #359 11.8 #223
Second Chance 28.2% #96 0.97 #93 0.27 #73
Turnovers 16.3% #198
Total Defense +5.2 #53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #237 -3.2% #15
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 19.7% #4 -8.0% #56
Possession Length 16.0 #70 18.7 #347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #286 0.10 #18
Improvement +1.2 #103 -0.7 #232

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 7.4% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 21.3% 29.1% 13.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.9% 84.6% 66.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.6% 84.3% 66.3%
Average Seed 7.7 7.4 8.2
.500 or above 96.8% 98.9% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.9% 86.1% 64.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 6.2% 10.1%
First Round72.1% 81.7% 61.9%
Second Round43.6% 51.3% 35.3%
Sweet Sixteen14.3% 17.7% 10.6%
Elite Eight5.3% 6.6% 3.9%
Final Four1.8% 2.2% 1.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 27 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 IU Indianapolis W 118 - 102 99%  +12  1 - 0 -0 +14 A+ C C- -17 F D- D+
 Fri, Nov 7 243 Purdue Fort Wayne W 94 - 68 97%  +14  2 - 0 +18 +14 A+ C+ F +4 A D B+
 Tue, Nov 11 224 Appalachian St. W 75 - 53 96%  +6  3 - 0 +16 +11 D+ A+ A+ +7 A+ D+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 59 Notre Dame W 64 - 63 78%  -3  4 - 0 +7 -1 B- F C +8 B A+ A
 Thu, Nov 20 265 Western Michigan W 91 - 58 97%  +25  5 - 0 +24 +9 A+ D F +13 A+ B A
 Tue, Nov 25 292 Mount St. Mary's W 113 - 60 98%  +25  6 - 0 +43 +32 A+ A+ B+ +8 B- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 82 @Pittsburgh L 66 - 67 66%  -4  6 - 1 +9 +2 C B- F +7 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 60 @Northwestern W 86 - 82 59%  +0  7 - 1 1 - 0 +16 +15 A+ C A- +0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 9 Illinois L 80 - 88 38%  -4  7 - 2 1 - 1 +9 +14 A A+ A+ -5 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 67 West Virginia W 89 - 88 2OT 70%  -4  8 - 2 +10 +7 D- A+ A+ +2 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 26 North Carolina L 70 - 71 47%  -4  8 - 3 +14 +10 A- C- A+ +4 A+ C D-
 Tue, Dec 23 246 Grambling St. W 89 - 63 97%  +13  9 - 3 +18 +18 A+ F C +2 A+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 2 131 @Rutgers W 80 - 73 81%  -1  10 - 3 2 - 1 +12 +20 A+ C D -7 C F D-
 Mon, Jan 5 23 Nebraska L 69 - 72 56%  -5  10 - 4 2 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F A+ +5 A- A+ A
 Thu, Jan 8 65 @Oregon W 72 - 62 59%  +8  11 - 4 3 - 2 +22 +13 B+ A+ F +10 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 11 47 @Washington W 77 - 76 52% 
 Sat, Jan 17 38 UCLA W 77 - 73 65% 
 Tue, Jan 20 76 Minnesota W 75 - 65 81% 
 Fri, Jan 23 1 @Michigan L 73 - 88 8% 
 Mon, Jan 26 105 Penn St. W 83 - 70 88% 
 Sat, Jan 31 43 @Wisconsin L 78 - 79 49% 
 Thu, Feb 5 107 @Maryland W 78 - 71 74% 
 Sun, Feb 8 1 Michigan L 76 - 85 20% 
 Wed, Feb 11 46 USC W 82 - 76 71% 
 Sat, Feb 14 22 Virginia L 74 - 76 44% 
 Tue, Feb 17 43 Wisconsin W 81 - 76 69% 
 Sun, Feb 22 14 @Michigan St. L 68 - 75 26% 
 Wed, Feb 25 20 @Iowa L 69 - 74 32% 
 Sun, Mar 1 4 Purdue L 73 - 78 31% 
 Wed, Mar 4 105 @Penn St. W 80 - 73 73% 
 Sat, Mar 7 25 Indiana W 78 - 76 56% 
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14 +9 A+ C+ B- +5 A- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.5 5.4 1.5 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 6.9 3.2 0.3 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 6.9 4.8 0.5 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.0 1.0 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.6 6.5 2.1 0.1 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.6 3.1 0.3 9.0 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 7.3 12.3 17.0 18.7 17.0 12.5 6.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 53.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 17.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 5.4% 94.6% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.9% 99.9% 3.5% 96.5% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.5% 99.1% 1.7% 97.4% 6.4 0.1 0.8 2.2 3.4 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 99.1%
12-8 17.0% 96.6% 1.2% 95.4% 7.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.7 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 96.6%
11-9 18.7% 91.8% 0.8% 91.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.5 4.5 3.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 91.7%
10-10 17.0% 74.7% 0.4% 74.3% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.1 3.7 2.6 0.1 4.3 74.6%
9-11 12.3% 43.6% 0.3% 43.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 0.1 6.9 43.4%
8-12 7.3% 15.5% 0.3% 15.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.0 6.2 15.3%
7-13 3.1% 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 2.6%
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.9% 1.2% 74.7% 7.7 24.1 75.6%