Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.3 #45
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 #103
Pace 70.4 #150
Improvement -1.0 #239

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #23 B A+ B+ A+ B-
Defense #96 B- A- D D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.31 #47 +4.9 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.86 #52 +0.0 #178
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.95 #255 -1.5 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #90 +3.4 #91
Freethrows 23.3 #5 73% #171 17.0 #7
Second Chance 39.1% #18 1.22 #25 0.48 #6
Turnovers 14.4% #51
Total Offense +8.6 #23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.10 #104 +0.9 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #26 0.62 #29 -0.8 #243
Three Pointers 34% #348 1.08 #279 +2.6 #91
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #97 +2.7 #96
Freethrows 19.5 #296 74% #249 14.5 #58
Second Chance 25.5% #29 0.95 #66 0.24 #29
Turnovers 14.8% #286
Total Defense +2.6 #96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #114 -1.7% #55
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #96 -3.5% #110
Possession Length 16.4 #94 18.1 #305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #7 0.13 #58
Improvement +0.8 #137 -1.8 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 4.9% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.1% 39.3% 17.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.4% 38.3% 16.8%
Average Seed 9.0 8.5 9.2
.500 or above 45.1% 67.8% 40.4%
.500 or above in Conference 22.1% 42.4% 17.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 5.6% 18.1%
First Four5.1% 6.6% 4.8%
First Round18.7% 36.1% 15.1%
Second Round9.5% 19.4% 7.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 4.8% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 12
Quad 23 - 37 - 15
Quad 31 - 18 - 16
Quad 47 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 6 Duke L 60 - 75 18%  -5  0 - 1 +6 -0 F A+ F +5 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 318 Lafayette W 97 - 60 98%  +18  1 - 1 +25 +20 C+ A+ C +5 A- D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 349 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99%  +17  2 - 1 +19 +8 C+ B+ B+ +10 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 343 UMKC W 71 - 55 98%  +11  3 - 1 +1 +1 F C+ A+ +2 A- B+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 348 Rider W 99 - 65 98%  +18  4 - 1 +19 +15 A+ F A+ +2 C+ A D-
 Mon, Nov 24 88 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 68%  +2  4 - 2 +6 +9 A+ A+ F -4 D+ C C
 Wed, Nov 26 34 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 40%  +4  5 - 2 +19 +32 A+ A+ A+ -13 C+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 22 Virginia L 69 - 88 44%  -6  5 - 3 -6 +6 C A A+ -14 C A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 8 256 Southern W 95 - 69 96%  +17  6 - 3 +17 +17 B+ A+ C- +0 D A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 5 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 11%  -6  6 - 4 +17 +7 C A+ C +9 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 291 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 97%  +18  7 - 4 +32 +10 B- A+ F +19 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 22 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 98%  +11  8 - 4 +8 +16 A+ D B+ -7 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 55 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 68%  -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +4 +14 A- A+ B+ -10 C F C-
 Tue, Jan 6 16 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 19%  -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +7 +12 B- A+ F -6 F B- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 13 @Alabama L 84 - 94 17% 
 Wed, Jan 14 7 Vanderbilt L 79 - 85 28% 
 Sat, Jan 17 40 Texas A&M W 85 - 83 56% 
 Wed, Jan 21 27 @Kentucky L 75 - 82 27% 
 Sat, Jan 24 24 Georgia L 87 - 88 45% 
 Wed, Jan 28 33 @Auburn L 79 - 85 29% 
 Sat, Jan 31 48 @Oklahoma L 78 - 81 40% 
 Tue, Feb 3 72 South Carolina W 78 - 72 72% 
 Sat, Feb 7 71 Mississippi W 79 - 73 72% 
 Sat, Feb 14 51 @Missouri L 79 - 81 41% 
 Tue, Feb 17 42 LSU W 80 - 78 58% 
 Sat, Feb 21 24 @Georgia L 84 - 91 25% 
 Wed, Feb 25 12 Florida L 77 - 81 36% 
 Sat, Feb 28 40 @Texas A&M L 82 - 86 35% 
 Wed, Mar 4 19 @Arkansas L 81 - 89 23% 
 Sat, Mar 7 48 Oklahoma W 81 - 78 63% 
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 +11 +9 B A+ B+ +3 B- A- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.5 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 3.5 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 1.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 4.2 0.3 8.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 5.6 1.7 0.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.9 4.0 0.3 0.0 10.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.6 5.8 1.2 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.1 2.5 0.1 11.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.6 3.3 0.4 10.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.5 9.5 14.4 15.9 15.9 14.0 10.2 6.6 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 37.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 99.0% 4.0% 95.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-7 3.2% 96.9% 4.3% 92.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.8%
10-8 6.6% 87.3% 2.0% 85.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.8 87.0%
9-9 10.2% 62.1% 1.4% 60.6% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 2.0 0.0 3.9 61.5%
8-10 14.0% 21.9% 1.0% 20.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.9 21.1%
7-11 15.9% 4.3% 0.6% 3.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 15.2 3.7%
6-12 15.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9 0.1%
5-13 14.4% 14.4
4-14 9.5% 9.5
3-15 5.5% 5.5
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 21.1% 0.8% 20.3% 9.0 78.9 20.4%