Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#42
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#48
Pace68.2#181
Improvement-0.9#227

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#47
First Shot+8.5#19
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#304
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#59
Freethrows+0.0#170
Improvement-0.2#198

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#48
First Shot+3.8#68
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#57
Layups/Dunks+2.6#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#226
Freethrows+2.4#41
Improvement-0.7#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.4% 65.8% 32.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 43.3% 65.6% 32.7%
Average Seed 10.8 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four33.1% 37.0% 31.2%
First Round26.8% 46.6% 17.3%
Second Round9.7% 17.4% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.8% 4.7% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 10
Quad 23 - 59 - 15
Quad 32 - 011 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 39   Ohio St. L 72-80 46%     0 - 1 +4.9 +3.9 +1.0
  Nov 08, 2024 285   Houston Christian W 90-59 97%     1 - 1 +21.1 +17.1 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2024 362   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +27.4 +14.0 +8.9
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.9%    3 - 1 +14.9 +11.0 +8.1
  Nov 21, 2024 102   Syracuse W 70-66 77%     4 - 1 +8.1 +0.9 +7.4
  Nov 22, 2024 75   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 66%     5 - 1 +16.5 +0.0 +16.7
  Nov 29, 2024 310   Delaware St. W 90-68 98%     6 - 1 +10.3 +5.0 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2024 104   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 69%     7 - 1 +10.7 +6.0 +5.4
  Dec 08, 2024 28   Connecticut L 65-76 50%     7 - 2 +0.7 +1.8 -2.2
  Dec 12, 2024 126   New Mexico St. W 91-67 88%     8 - 2 +23.3 +21.8 +1.7
  Dec 15, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 121-57 99%     9 - 2 +42.7 +27.0 +10.4
  Dec 19, 2024 354   New Orleans W 98-62 99%     10 - 2 +19.5 +16.0 +3.6
  Dec 29, 2024 247   Northwestern St. W 77-53 95%     11 - 2 +16.6 +16.3 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M L 60-80 24%     11 - 3 0 - 1 -0.9 -0.2 -1.2
  Jan 07, 2025 2   Auburn L 82-87 18%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +16.5 +15.0 +1.6
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Tennessee L 70-74 29%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +13.5 +17.4 -4.5
  Jan 15, 2025 38   @ Oklahoma W 77-73 35%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +19.7 +5.8 +13.7
  Jan 18, 2025 3   @ Florida L 60-84 9%     12 - 6 1 - 4 +2.3 -1.2 +3.4
  Jan 21, 2025 18   Missouri W 61-53 42%     13 - 6 2 - 4 +22.0 -1.2 +24.3
  Jan 25, 2025 22   Texas A&M W 70-69 43%     14 - 6 3 - 4 +14.6 +15.3 -0.6
  Jan 29, 2025 29   @ Mississippi L 69-72 31%     14 - 7 3 - 5 +14.1 +8.1 +5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 86   @ LSU W 89-58 60%     15 - 7 4 - 5 +40.1 +25.9 +15.5
  Feb 05, 2025 37   Arkansas L 70-78 56%     15 - 8 4 - 6 +2.3 +0.6 +2.1
  Feb 08, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt L 78-86 43%     15 - 9 4 - 7 +5.7 +9.8 -4.1
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Alabama L 80-103 26%     15 - 10 4 - 8 -4.6 +10.8 -14.9
  Feb 15, 2025 14   Kentucky W 82-78 38%     16 - 10 5 - 8 +18.9 +9.9 +8.9
  Feb 22, 2025 71   @ South Carolina L 69-84 54%     16 - 11 5 - 9 -4.2 +0.8 -4.5
  Feb 26, 2025 37   @ Arkansas L 81-86 OT 35%     16 - 12 5 - 10 +10.8 +9.6 +1.7
  Mar 01, 2025 33   Georgia L 67-83 53%     16 - 13 5 - 11 -5.0 +3.0 -8.6
  Mar 04, 2025 30   @ Mississippi St. W 87-82 OT 31%     17 - 13 6 - 11 +22.0 +9.8 +11.6
  Mar 08, 2025 38   Oklahoma L 72-76 56%     17 - 14 6 - 12 +6.2 +3.6 +2.5
  Mar 12, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 79-72 54%     18 - 14 +17.9 +8.2 +9.6
  Mar 13, 2025 22   Texas A&M L 68-73 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 15 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 100.0 100.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 43.4% 0.2% 43.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.5 29.4 5.1 56.6 43.3%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.4% 0.2% 43.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.5 29.4 5.1 56.6 43.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 93.0% 9.0 1.2 22.1 50.0 19.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6% 88.5% 9.9 3.2 20.6 42.9 21.7
Lose Out 67.8% 32.7% 11.2 0.0 1.0 25.2 6.5