Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.6 #17
Expected Predictive Rating +17.5 #17
Pace 68.4 #212
Improvement +1.7 #96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 A B B+ C- D+
Defense #34 B+ A- C+ B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #335 1.28 #66 -2.3 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.91 #23 +2.4 #67
Three Pointers 47% #71 1.18 #17 +6.8 #16
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #25 +6.9 #25
Freethrows 15.5 #279 76% #60 11.9 #224
Second Chance 35.7% #49 1.09 #125 0.39 #62
Turnovers 14.3% #48
Total Offense +10.2 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.11 #118 +4.3 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #2 0.80 #257 -5.4 #364
Three Pointers 35% #325 0.88 #43 +5.4 #20
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #56 +4.2 #56
Freethrows 15.9 #113 67% #26 10.7 #302
Second Chance 25.3% #27 0.94 #61 0.24 #27
Turnovers 17.4% #135
Total Defense +6.4 #34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #280 -3.9% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.4% #14 -4.6% #99
Possession Length 16.7 #129 17.9 #293
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #198 0.09 #12
Improvement +0.9 #125 +0.8 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 5.2% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 29.7% 34.5% 17.8%
Top 6 Seed 63.3% 69.3% 48.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.1% 96.2% 88.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.8% 96.0% 88.5%
Average Seed 5.8 5.5 6.5
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.1% 90.4% 72.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four3.9% 2.7% 6.9%
First Round92.5% 95.1% 86.0%
Second Round70.9% 74.5% 61.7%
Sweet Sixteen33.3% 36.4% 25.6%
Elite Eight13.2% 14.7% 9.5%
Final Four5.4% 6.0% 3.7%
Championship Game2.1% 2.4% 1.3%
National Champion0.7% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 71.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 10
Quad 26 - 113 - 11
Quad 35 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 240 Lindenwood W 98 - 60 98%  +19  1 - 0 +31 +15 B D+ A+ +13 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 7 134 Sam Houston St. W 98 - 77 94%  +8  2 - 0 +20 +23 A- A+ B -3 B D A-
 Tue, Nov 11 9 @Illinois L 77 - 81 26%  -4  2 - 1 +19 +12 A+ C- F +7 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 226 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 63 97%  +4  3 - 1 +10 +8 C- A+ C+ +3 B- D A+
 Thu, Nov 20 62 Wake Forest W 84 - 83 77%  +2  4 - 1 +10 +11 B+ B+ A- -1 C+ C+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 4 Purdue L 56 - 86 28%  -17  4 - 2 -7 -5 F B A -4 F A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 236 New Orleans W 82 - 50 98%  +12  5 - 2 +25 +3 D+ A+ D- +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 95 Wyoming W 76 - 72 90%  +2  6 - 2 +7 +7 B C+ A- +0 C A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 42 LSU W 82 - 58 68%  +18  7 - 2 +36 +13 A+ C+ F +23 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 19 Arkansas L 86 - 93 51%  +2  7 - 3 +9 +23 A+ A A+ -14 D+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 16 161 Northern Colorado W 101 - 90 96%  +7  8 - 3 +8 +27 A+ D- A+ -19 F F D
 Sat, Dec 20 6 Duke W 82 - 81 34%  -4  9 - 3 +22 +18 A+ B+ A+ +4 D- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 28 152 Winthrop W 87 - 57 96%  +26  10 - 3 +27 +9 A- C F +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 54 Oklahoma St. W 102 - 80 82%  +12  11 - 3 1 - 0 +29 +23 A+ A+ A+ +4 A- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 11 @Houston L 65 - 69 29%  +0  11 - 4 1 - 1 +18 +8 B- A B+ +10 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 77 @Colorado W 83 - 77 71% 
 Wed, Jan 14 117 Utah W 86 - 70 94% 
 Sat, Jan 17 8 BYU L 78 - 79 47% 
 Tue, Jan 20 32 @Baylor L 78 - 79 49% 
 Sat, Jan 24 11 Houston W 70 - 69 50% 
 Sat, Jan 31 50 @Central Florida W 81 - 78 61% 
 Mon, Feb 2 18 Kansas W 76 - 73 61% 
 Sun, Feb 8 67 @West Virginia W 72 - 67 68% 
 Wed, Feb 11 77 Colorado W 86 - 74 86% 
 Sat, Feb 14 2 @Arizona L 74 - 84 17% 
 Tue, Feb 17 88 @Arizona St. W 83 - 76 74% 
 Sat, Feb 21 74 Kansas St. W 88 - 76 86% 
 Tue, Feb 24 58 Cincinnati W 77 - 67 83% 
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Iowa St. L 71 - 81 19% 
 Tue, Mar 3 44 TCU W 78 - 70 77% 
 Sat, Mar 7 8 @BYU L 75 - 82 27% 
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17 +10 A B B+ +6 B+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.5 0.2 10.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 7.5 4.1 0.4 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.0 9.6 5.4 0.7 0.0 20.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 7.5 4.8 0.6 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.2 4.0 0.7 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 4.4 8.2 13.5 16.8 18.9 16.2 11.0 6.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 84.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-3 45.9% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 9.7% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 2.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 2.5 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.0% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3.1 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.0% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.8 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.2% 100.0% 5.4% 94.5% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.1 5.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 18.9% 99.9% 3.6% 96.3% 5.4 0.0 0.8 3.2 6.1 5.5 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 16.8% 99.4% 2.2% 97.2% 6.4 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.9 4.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 13.5% 97.2% 1.5% 95.7% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.4 3.3 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.4 97.1%
8-10 8.2% 83.3% 0.9% 82.4% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.7 0.0 1.4 83.1%
7-11 4.4% 55.1% 0.3% 54.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.1 2.0 55.0%
6-12 1.5% 15.4% 15.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 15.4%
5-13 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.1% 4.2% 89.9% 5.8 5.9 93.8%