Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.6#12
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#18
Pace65.1#265
Improvement+2.1#86

Offense
Total Offense+10.5#12
First Shot+8.7#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#82
Layup/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#48
Freethrows-0.2#182
Improvement-0.8#232

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#31
First Shot+5.3#37
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#54
Layups/Dunks+7.8#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#189
Freethrows+2.2#47
Improvement+2.9#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 9.3% 11.6% 4.6%
Top 2 Seed 29.9% 36.0% 17.6%
Top 4 Seed 73.7% 80.6% 59.8%
Top 6 Seed 94.8% 97.4% 89.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.5 3.2 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 17.7% 22.5% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Second Round89.6% 91.5% 85.9%
Sweet Sixteen55.5% 57.8% 50.9%
Elite Eight26.9% 28.7% 23.5%
Final Four12.4% 13.6% 9.9%
Championship Game5.7% 6.4% 4.4%
National Champion2.6% 2.9% 1.9%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 5
Quad 25 - 213 - 7
Quad 36 - 119 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 94-61 98%     1 - 0 +24.0 +22.9 +2.0
  Nov 08, 2024 293   Northwestern St. W 86-65 99%     2 - 0 +11.4 +12.5 -0.6
  Nov 13, 2024 167   Wyoming W 96-49 96%     3 - 0 +44.5 +24.0 +20.9
  Nov 18, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98-64 99.8%    4 - 0 +12.7 +8.8 +2.8
  Nov 21, 2024 86   Saint Joseph's L 77-78 85%     4 - 1 +5.7 +8.5 -2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 104   Syracuse W 79-74 89%     5 - 1 +9.4 +11.1 -1.5
  Nov 29, 2024 154   Northern Colorado W 89-64 95%     6 - 1 +23.2 +12.9 +10.3
  Dec 04, 2024 112   DePaul W 76-62 93%     7 - 1 +14.7 +7.2 +8.4
  Dec 08, 2024 19   Texas A&M L 67-72 56%     7 - 2 +11.0 +6.7 +4.0
  Dec 16, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 86-50 99%     8 - 2 +24.5 +8.4 +18.1
  Dec 21, 2024 218   Lamar W 101-57 97%     9 - 2 +38.3 +28.6 +10.4
  Dec 31, 2024 62   Central Florida L 83-87 85%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +2.5 +9.5 -6.9
  Jan 04, 2025 84   @ Utah W 93-65 78%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +37.6 +39.9 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2025 33   @ BYU W 72-67 56%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +21.2 +15.3 +6.6
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 84-85 OT 58%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +14.5 +12.9 +1.7
  Jan 14, 2025 55   @ Kansas St. W 61-57 69%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +16.4 +3.6 +13.4
  Jan 18, 2025 10   Arizona W 70-54 59%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +31.3 +6.9 +25.0
  Jan 21, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati W 81-71 70%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +22.2 +22.4 +0.4
  Jan 26, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 64-54 92%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +12.1 -2.9 +15.6
  Jan 29, 2025 68   TCU W 71-57 87%     16 - 4 7 - 2 +19.4 +13.1 +8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Houston W 82-81 OT 24%     17 - 4 8 - 2 +26.2 +21.3 +4.8
  Feb 04, 2025 20   Baylor W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 12, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 77-66 86%    
  Feb 15, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 18, 2025 68   @ TCU W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 39   West Virginia W 71-63 79%    
  Feb 24, 2025 3   Houston L 64-67 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 70-74 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 98   Colorado W 79-64 93%    
  Mar 08, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 74-68 69%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 7.4 6.9 1.6 17.7 1st
2nd 0.2 4.0 14.9 10.8 1.9 31.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 12.5 8.5 1.3 0.0 24.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.6 5.6 0.4 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.6 0.7 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 5.6 13.7 22.8 25.6 19.6 8.8 1.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.6    1.4 0.2
17-3 77.7% 6.9    4.1 2.6 0.2
16-4 37.9% 7.4    2.0 3.8 1.4 0.1
15-5 7.1% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 7.6 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.6% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 8.8% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 1.8 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 19.6% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.3 3.5 8.2 5.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 25.6% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.1 1.3 5.7 9.4 6.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 22.8% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 4.0 0.3 1.7 5.2 7.9 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.7% 99.9% 7.2% 92.8% 4.9 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.4 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 5.6% 99.8% 3.6% 96.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 1.9% 97.4% 4.2% 93.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 97.3%
10-10 0.4% 97.4% 2.6% 94.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 97.3%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 11.9% 88.0% 3.5 9.3 20.6 23.5 20.3 13.6 7.5 3.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 78.8 18.2 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 65.8 34.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 45.7 4.3