Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Expected Predictive Rating+13.6#32
Pace73.9#59
Improvement+1.0#145

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#61
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#9
Layup/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
Freethrows+3.2#28
Improvement+3.0#39

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#89
First Shot+1.8#118
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks-0.7#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-2.0#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 38.8% 16.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.3% 38.6% 16.7%
Average Seed 9.9 9.5 10.0
.500 or above 85.4% 97.0% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 31.3% 59.1% 29.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.1% 1.8%
First Four7.5% 10.6% 7.2%
First Round13.8% 32.3% 12.3%
Second Round4.8% 11.5% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 23 - 47 - 13
Quad 36 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 21   Texas A&M W 64-61 32%     1 - 0 +15.6 +1.5 +14.2
  Nov 08, 2024 145   Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-68 81%     2 - 0 +5.6 -3.4 +8.8
  Nov 12, 2024 108   Florida Atlantic W 100-94 75%     3 - 0 +6.7 +13.3 -7.4
  Nov 19, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech W 80-69 95%     4 - 0 -0.7 +4.0 -4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 18   Wisconsin L 70-86 22%     4 - 1 -0.2 -3.8 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 63   LSU L 102-109 3OT 47%     4 - 2 +1.6 +5.6 -2.0
  Nov 27, 2024 161   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-76 83%     5 - 2 +5.5 +7.6 -2.3
  Dec 01, 2024 172   California Baptist W 74-59 85%     6 - 2 +11.8 -0.6 +12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 262   Tarleton St. W 66-51 93%     7 - 2 +6.6 -3.0 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2024 251   Tulsa W 88-75 88%     8 - 2 +8.0 +16.2 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2024 185   Jacksonville W 86-66 86%     9 - 2 +16.2 +11.6 +4.0
  Dec 31, 2024 17   @ Texas Tech W 87-83 14%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +23.2 +19.0 +4.1
  Jan 05, 2025 6   Kansas L 48-99 20%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -34.2 -19.0 -10.6
  Jan 08, 2025 94   Colorado W 75-74 67%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +4.3 +2.0 +2.3
  Jan 11, 2025 13   @ Arizona L 80-88 13%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +11.7 +10.2 +2.1
  Jan 14, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. W 95-89 37%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +17.3 +23.7 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Houston L 68-69 15%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +17.8 +10.3 +7.4
  Jan 21, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 69-84 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   TCU W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 28, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 68-82 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 44   BYU L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 39   Cincinnati L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 22   @ Baylor L 70-80 16%    
  Feb 11, 2025 4   Iowa St. L 71-81 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 94   @ Colorado L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 69   Utah W 79-77 60%    
  Feb 26, 2025 89   Kansas St. W 78-74 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   @ TCU L 71-75 36%    
  Mar 05, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 81-75 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 32   @ West Virginia L 67-75 23%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 4th
5th 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.7 4.3 3.9 1.1 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.6 4.9 6.5 2.0 0.1 14.1 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 8.2 2.9 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 2.0 7.8 4.1 0.2 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 5.9 5.3 0.9 12.7 11th
12th 0.3 3.1 5.8 1.3 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 16th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.4 9.1 15.9 18.7 18.9 14.6 9.4 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.6% 96.6% 1.7% 94.8% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 96.5%
13-7 1.8% 90.9% 1.1% 89.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 90.8%
12-8 4.9% 72.7% 1.0% 71.7% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.4 72.4%
11-9 9.4% 53.8% 0.5% 53.3% 10.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.6 0.1 4.3 53.6%
10-10 14.6% 33.6% 0.1% 33.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 0.2 9.7 33.6%
9-11 18.9% 11.5% 0.1% 11.4% 10.9 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.2 16.7 11.4%
8-12 18.7% 2.0% 2.0% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 18.4 2.0%
7-13 15.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 0.2%
6-14 9.1% 9.1
5-15 4.4% 4.4
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.4% 0.2% 18.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.3 6.7 0.5 81.6 18.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%