Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#9
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#37
Pace78.8#20
Improvement-2.7#359

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#3
First Shot+6.3#36
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#10
Layup/Dunks+3.6#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#219
Freethrows+4.8#16
Improvement-0.6#281

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#42
First Shot+3.8#71
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#75
Layups/Dunks+4.7#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#75
Freethrows+1.2#117
Improvement-2.1#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 5.8% 2.3%
#1 Seed 17.2% 21.2% 10.3%
Top 2 Seed 34.7% 41.4% 23.2%
Top 4 Seed 62.0% 69.6% 48.7%
Top 6 Seed 75.9% 82.5% 64.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.2% 93.5% 81.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.5% 92.3% 79.6%
Average Seed 3.8 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 92.2% 95.8% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 84.0% 87.2% 78.5%
Conference Champion 15.9% 18.5% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four3.0% 2.1% 4.5%
First Round88.0% 92.7% 79.9%
Second Round75.8% 81.5% 65.9%
Sweet Sixteen49.2% 54.3% 40.4%
Elite Eight27.3% 31.2% 20.6%
Final Four14.3% 16.9% 10.0%
Championship Game7.4% 8.9% 4.9%
National Champion3.6% 4.4% 2.2%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 35 - 019 - 11
Quad 42 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 177   UNC Asheville W 110-54 96%     1 - 0 +52.1 +27.5 +21.5
  Nov 08, 2024 112   Arkansas St. W 88-79 93%     2 - 0 +9.9 +1.5 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2024 91   McNeese St. W 72-64 91%     3 - 0 +10.6 +3.8 +7.1
  Nov 15, 2024 19   @ Purdue L 78-87 50%     3 - 1 +8.0 +14.1 -6.4
  Nov 20, 2024 26   Illinois W 86-82 63%    
  Nov 26, 2024 4   Houston L 73-75 41%    
  Nov 27, 2024 42   Rutgers W 82-76 71%    
  Dec 04, 2024 7   @ North Carolina L 87-90 37%    
  Dec 14, 2024 17   Creighton W 85-79 70%    
  Dec 18, 2024 255   @ North Dakota W 90-71 96%    
  Dec 22, 2024 123   Kent St. W 86-69 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 183   South Dakota St. W 91-70 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 84-73 83%    
  Jan 08, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 82-76 71%    
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 14, 2025 47   Mississippi W 85-75 82%    
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 86-89 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 91-78 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 48   LSU W 87-77 82%    
  Jan 29, 2025 29   @ Mississippi St. W 82-81 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 55   Georgia W 87-76 83%    
  Feb 08, 2025 27   @ Arkansas W 83-82 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   @ Texas W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Auburn W 85-84 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 61   @ Missouri W 83-78 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 10   Kentucky W 89-86 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 29   Mississippi St. W 85-78 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 79-82 38%    
  Mar 05, 2025 21   Florida W 91-85 70%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 81-87 32%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 4.9 3.5 1.5 0.4 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 4.9 2.0 0.3 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.9 4.8 1.4 0.1 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.8 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.6 13.3 13.8 12.9 10.3 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 93.0% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 70.3% 4.9    3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 38.1% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.4% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.2 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.5% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.8% 100.0% 38.3% 61.7% 1.2 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.5 4.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.3% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.8 4.2 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.9% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 2.4 2.8 4.8 3.4 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.8% 100.0% 12.9% 87.0% 3.1 1.1 3.3 4.5 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.3% 99.8% 8.8% 90.9% 4.1 0.3 1.4 3.3 3.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 11.6% 98.0% 5.8% 92.2% 5.3 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
9-9 9.5% 90.4% 4.0% 86.5% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.9 90.1%
8-10 6.7% 68.1% 1.9% 66.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 67.5%
7-11 4.4% 33.5% 0.6% 32.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.9 33.0%
6-12 2.6% 11.3% 0.8% 10.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 10.6%
5-13 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.0%
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 89.2% 13.9% 75.3% 3.8 17.2 17.5 15.1 12.1 8.4 5.5 3.6 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.6 0.6 0.0 10.8 87.5%