Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.9#10
Pace80.2#8
Improvement-2.9#327

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#4
First Shot+8.2#14
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#13
Layup/Dunks+6.0#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#341
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#130
Freethrows+4.0#18
Improvement-1.2#277

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#48
First Shot+3.0#86
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#49
Layups/Dunks+3.3#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#37
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-1.7#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 4.7% 2.0%
#1 Seed 21.4% 22.0% 11.0%
Top 2 Seed 47.5% 48.4% 31.0%
Top 4 Seed 79.9% 80.7% 65.4%
Top 6 Seed 90.6% 91.2% 79.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.9% 98.1% 94.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 97.9% 94.5%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 4.0
.500 or above 99.0% 99.1% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 81.8% 72.0%
Conference Champion 9.3% 9.5% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 1.6%
First Four1.2% 1.1% 3.2%
First Round97.4% 97.6% 93.9%
Second Round88.1% 88.6% 79.4%
Sweet Sixteen57.8% 58.4% 46.5%
Elite Eight32.1% 32.6% 22.4%
Final Four16.5% 16.8% 10.6%
Championship Game7.8% 8.0% 4.8%
National Champion3.5% 3.6% 2.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 87 - 8
Quad 1b5 - 212 - 10
Quad 25 - 117 - 10
Quad 34 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 166   UNC Asheville W 110-54 96%     1 - 0 +52.5 +28.1 +21.3
  Nov 08, 2024 109   Arkansas St. W 88-79 93%     2 - 0 +9.8 +2.0 +6.3
  Nov 11, 2024 92   McNeese St. W 72-64 90%     3 - 0 +11.1 +4.3 +7.2
  Nov 15, 2024 20   @ Purdue L 78-87 51%     3 - 1 +8.3 +14.0 -6.0
  Nov 20, 2024 16   Illinois W 100-87 59%     4 - 1 +28.2 +20.7 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 6   Houston W 85-80 OT 43%     5 - 1 +24.1 +17.0 +6.8
  Nov 27, 2024 64   Rutgers W 95-90 79%     6 - 1 +13.8 +15.9 -2.7
  Nov 30, 2024 23   Oregon L 81-83 63%     6 - 2 +12.0 +10.6 +1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 22   @ North Carolina W 94-79 51%     7 - 2 +32.1 +13.5 +16.2
  Dec 14, 2024 48   Creighton W 83-75 83%     8 - 2 +15.3 +8.8 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 278   @ North Dakota W 97-90 96%     9 - 2 +3.6 +13.4 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2024 113   Kent St. W 83-66 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 91-73 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 87-79 77%    
  Jan 08, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 82-76 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M W 79-78 53%    
  Jan 14, 2025 27   Mississippi W 85-78 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 89-92 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 92-82 83%    
  Jan 25, 2025 56   LSU W 89-78 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. W 83-82 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 32   Georgia W 85-77 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 29   @ Arkansas W 86-84 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   @ Texas W 82-80 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 1   Auburn L 86-88 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 55   @ Missouri W 87-82 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 9   Kentucky W 92-89 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 86-79 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 75-81 29%    
  Mar 05, 2025 7   Florida W 89-87 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 83-91 23%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 9.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.8 4.5 1.1 0.1 13.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.7 5.4 1.4 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.3 1.9 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 1.5 0.1 4.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 11.7 14.0 15.1 14.3 11.4 7.9 4.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.6% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 90.8% 1.8    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 66.2% 2.9    1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 35.3% 2.8    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.2% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.3% 9.3 4.8 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.0% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.2 3.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.9% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 1.4 4.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.4% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 1.7 5.0 5.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.3% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 2.0 3.6 7.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.1% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 2.5 1.9 5.7 5.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.0% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 3.1 0.6 3.0 5.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.7% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 3.9 0.1 0.8 3.4 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 8.4% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
7-11 5.3% 98.6% 1.1% 97.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
6-12 2.9% 86.2% 1.3% 84.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 86.0%
5-13 1.3% 36.1% 0.1% 35.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9 36.0%
4-14 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 97.9% 9.1% 88.8% 3.1 21.4 26.1 20.4 12.0 6.8 3.9 2.2 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.1 97.7%