Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#3
Expected Predictive Rating+25.1#1
Pace73.1#80
Improvement-0.6#254

Offense
Total Offense+11.7#2
First Shot+11.9#2
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#193
Layup/Dunks+3.0#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#24
Freethrows-1.9#278
Improvement-0.2#202

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#10
First Shot+7.6#12
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#164
Layups/Dunks+2.6#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#14
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-0.4#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.8% 15.7% 8.1%
#1 Seed 40.1% 46.3% 30.0%
Top 2 Seed 66.0% 73.0% 54.7%
Top 4 Seed 87.8% 92.1% 81.0%
Top 6 Seed 94.7% 97.1% 90.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.5% 97.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.3% 96.7%
Average Seed 2.4 2.1 2.9
.500 or above 99.2% 99.8% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 96.8% 93.4%
Conference Champion 37.7% 42.0% 30.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.3%
First Round98.4% 99.3% 96.9%
Second Round92.1% 94.5% 88.3%
Sweet Sixteen67.1% 70.6% 61.4%
Elite Eight43.0% 46.7% 36.9%
Final Four25.5% 28.3% 20.9%
Championship Game14.5% 16.5% 11.3%
National Champion8.1% 9.4% 5.9%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Neutral) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 211 - 6
Quad 25 - 117 - 7
Quad 33 - 020 - 7
Quad 44 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 149   Vermont W 94-43 97%     1 - 0 +48.6 +23.0 +25.8
  Nov 09, 2024 4   Houston W 74-69 50%     2 - 0 +24.5 +20.9 +4.3
  Nov 13, 2024 123   Kent St. W 79-56 96%     3 - 0 +22.7 +14.8 +10.4
  Nov 18, 2024 187   North Alabama W 102-69 98%     4 - 0 +28.7 +19.6 +7.2
  Nov 25, 2024 12   Iowa St. W 75-72 62%    
  Dec 04, 2024 5   @ Duke L 75-78 40%    
  Dec 08, 2024 197   Richmond W 84-60 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 20   Ohio St. W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 17, 2024 223   Georgia St. W 89-63 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 19   Purdue W 80-74 69%    
  Dec 30, 2024 261   Monmouth W 92-64 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 61   Missouri W 83-69 89%    
  Jan 07, 2025 31   @ Texas W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 80-71 78%    
  Jan 14, 2025 29   Mississippi St. W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 55   @ Georgia W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Tennessee W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 29, 2025 48   @ LSU W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 47   @ Mississippi W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 04, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 81-68 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 21   Florida W 88-79 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 85-75 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 84-85 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 27   Arkansas W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 55   Georgia W 84-71 87%    
  Feb 26, 2025 47   Mississippi W 82-69 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 83-84 49%    
  Mar 04, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M W 76-73 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   Alabama W 87-81 68%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.5 10.4 10.1 6.4 2.0 37.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.2 7.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.6 5.0 1.8 0.2 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.9 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.5 0.2 4.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 4.0 6.6 9.1 12.1 14.9 15.5 14.1 10.8 6.4 2.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-1 99.3% 6.4    6.1 0.3 0.0
16-2 93.1% 10.1    8.4 1.7 0.0
15-3 73.7% 10.4    6.4 3.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 42.0% 6.5    2.4 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.9% 2.1    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 25.5 9.0 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.0% 100.0% 57.8% 42.2% 1.1 1.9 0.2 100.0%
17-1 6.4% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.1 5.7 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 10.8% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.2 8.6 2.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.1% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 1.4 9.4 4.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.5% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.6 7.8 6.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 2.1 4.5 6.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.1% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.6 1.8 4.2 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 9.1% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 3.4 0.4 1.8 3.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.6% 99.8% 6.9% 92.9% 4.3 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 4.0% 99.7% 4.0% 95.7% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
8-10 2.2% 93.4% 2.3% 91.2% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 93.3%
7-11 1.3% 71.6% 1.4% 70.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 71.2%
6-12 0.6% 37.8% 0.9% 36.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 37.2%
5-13 0.3% 11.6% 1.8% 9.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.7% 25.1% 73.6% 2.4 40.1 25.9 14.0 7.8 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 96.6 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.1 2.9