Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#21
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#14
Pace77.2#30
Improvement+0.4#127

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#9
First Shot+7.4#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#59
Layup/Dunks+5.8#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows+1.5#114
Improvement-0.6#275

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#66
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#132
Layups/Dunks-0.2#178
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#86
Freethrows+2.6#62
Improvement+1.0#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.8% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 11.9% 12.5% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 32.9% 34.2% 17.2%
Top 6 Seed 53.3% 54.9% 33.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 82.6% 83.8% 67.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.5% 82.7% 66.6%
Average Seed 5.6 5.5 6.7
.500 or above 94.7% 95.6% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 71.6% 56.1%
Conference Champion 6.6% 6.9% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.6% 3.4%
First Four5.1% 4.9% 7.4%
First Round80.2% 81.5% 64.3%
Second Round57.8% 59.2% 40.6%
Sweet Sixteen29.1% 30.1% 17.8%
Elite Eight12.9% 13.4% 7.2%
Final Four5.7% 5.9% 3.0%
Championship Game2.3% 2.4% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 92.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   South Florida W 98-83 85%     1 - 0 +17.9 +18.7 -2.1
  Nov 07, 2024 226   Jacksonville W 81-60 96%     2 - 0 +14.8 +10.5 +5.2
  Nov 11, 2024 235   Grambling St. W 86-62 96%     3 - 0 +17.4 +8.8 +7.5
  Nov 15, 2024 79   @ Florida St. W 87-74 64%     4 - 0 +23.2 +15.6 +6.8
  Nov 19, 2024 356   Florida A&M W 84-60 99%     5 - 0 +7.0 +5.5 +1.8
  Nov 22, 2024 132   Southern Illinois W 85-70 92%    
  Nov 28, 2024 73   Wake Forest W 83-77 72%    
  Dec 04, 2024 58   Virginia W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 14, 2024 53   Arizona St. W 82-77 67%    
  Dec 17, 2024 7   North Carolina L 85-89 38%    
  Dec 21, 2024 175   North Florida W 93-75 95%    
  Dec 29, 2024 326   Stetson W 91-65 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 84-90 30%    
  Jan 07, 2025 8   Tennessee L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 27   @ Arkansas L 80-82 42%    
  Jan 14, 2025 61   Missouri W 83-75 77%    
  Jan 18, 2025 31   Texas W 81-77 64%    
  Jan 22, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 80-77 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 55   Georgia W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 77-83 29%    
  Feb 04, 2025 82   Vanderbilt W 88-78 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 79-88 22%    
  Feb 11, 2025 29   @ Mississippi St. L 80-82 43%    
  Feb 15, 2025 72   South Carolina W 83-74 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 82-74 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 48   @ LSU W 82-81 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 55   @ Georgia W 81-79 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   Texas A&M W 79-76 62%    
  Mar 05, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 85-91 30%    
  Mar 08, 2025 47   Mississippi W 82-75 73%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 6.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.5 3rd
4th 0.5 3.8 4.2 1.2 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 4.9 1.6 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.2 2.8 0.3 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.6 0.1 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.2 8.1 10.8 12.6 13.8 13.4 11.4 8.7 5.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.7% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.1% 2.1    1.2 0.8 0.1
14-4 33.5% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.5% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.6% 6.6 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.1% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.4 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 3.2 0.7 1.9 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.4% 100.0% 9.1% 90.8% 4.1 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.4% 99.6% 5.2% 94.4% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.1 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 13.8% 98.1% 2.8% 95.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 98.0%
9-9 12.6% 93.8% 1.7% 92.1% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 93.7%
8-10 10.8% 77.1% 0.9% 76.2% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 2.5 76.9%
7-11 8.1% 47.4% 0.6% 46.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 0.3 4.3 47.1%
6-12 5.2% 18.5% 0.2% 18.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.2 18.4%
5-13 3.1% 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 3.0%
4-14 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 1.5 0.2%
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 82.6% 5.8% 76.7% 5.6 4.6 7.4 10.0 11.0 10.7 9.6 7.8 6.1 5.2 4.6 5.0 0.7 0.0 17.4 81.5%