North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#7
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#63
Pace79.5#14
Improvement+1.4#51

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#4
First Shot+10.5#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks+6.7#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows+5.5#10
Improvement+0.5#106

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#20
First Shot+6.7#26
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#179
Layups/Dunks+6.7#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#116
Freethrows+0.3#162
Improvement+0.9#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 4.4% 1.3%
#1 Seed 17.4% 18.2% 7.5%
Top 2 Seed 33.9% 35.3% 16.4%
Top 4 Seed 59.1% 61.0% 35.5%
Top 6 Seed 75.9% 77.5% 56.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.7% 94.5% 84.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 92.5% 81.3%
Average Seed 4.1 4.0 5.4
.500 or above 98.0% 98.4% 92.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 96.6% 92.1%
Conference Champion 31.7% 32.6% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.8% 1.6% 4.2%
First Round92.9% 93.7% 82.2%
Second Round78.3% 79.6% 62.4%
Sweet Sixteen50.6% 51.9% 34.6%
Elite Eight28.8% 29.7% 17.1%
Final Four15.8% 16.4% 8.7%
Championship Game8.3% 8.6% 4.0%
National Champion4.3% 4.5% 2.1%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 92.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 6
Quad 27 - 115 - 8
Quad 36 - 020 - 8
Quad 44 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 263   Elon W 90-76 98%     1 - 0 +5.8 +5.6 -0.7
  Nov 08, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 89-92 34%     1 - 1 +18.8 +18.0 +1.0
  Nov 15, 2024 265   American W 107-55 98%     2 - 1 +43.8 +21.8 +19.1
  Nov 23, 2024 174   @ Hawaii W 84-69 93%    
  Nov 25, 2024 64   Dayton W 82-73 80%    
  Dec 04, 2024 9   Alabama W 90-87 63%    
  Dec 07, 2024 106   Georgia Tech W 93-77 93%    
  Dec 14, 2024 120   La Salle W 87-69 94%    
  Dec 17, 2024 21   Florida W 89-85 62%    
  Dec 21, 2024 28   UCLA W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 29, 2024 257   Campbell W 89-64 99%    
  Jan 01, 2025 46   @ Louisville W 85-80 66%    
  Jan 04, 2025 56   @ Notre Dame W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 07, 2025 68   SMU W 91-79 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   @ North Carolina St. W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 104   California W 88-72 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 67   Stanford W 85-73 86%    
  Jan 21, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest W 84-77 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 133   Boston College W 87-68 95%    
  Jan 28, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   @ Duke L 77-82 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Pittsburgh W 83-76 73%    
  Feb 10, 2025 49   @ Clemson W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 92   @ Syracuse W 89-80 78%    
  Feb 19, 2025 52   North Carolina St. W 86-75 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Virginia W 73-62 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 79   @ Florida St. W 85-78 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 37   Miami (FL) W 87-78 77%    
  Mar 04, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech W 83-74 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Duke W 80-79 54%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.4 8.7 8.7 5.2 1.7 31.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 7.1 7.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 4.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.3 2.7 0.7 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.0 7.4 10.1 12.2 14.2 14.6 13.2 9.6 5.2 1.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7
19-1 99.9% 5.2    5.0 0.2
18-2 91.2% 8.7    7.0 1.7 0.0
17-3 66.2% 8.7    5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 37.0% 5.4    2.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 12.3% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.7% 31.7 21.6 8.0 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 100.0% 59.4% 40.6% 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
19-1 5.2% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 1.3 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.6% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 1.6 5.3 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.2% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 2.1 4.4 5.0 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.6% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 2.9 2.0 4.2 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.2% 99.9% 24.2% 75.8% 3.9 0.5 1.9 3.6 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.2% 99.5% 18.6% 81.0% 5.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
13-7 10.1% 98.0% 12.9% 85.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.7%
12-8 7.4% 92.8% 9.3% 83.6% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.5 92.1%
11-9 5.0% 77.9% 5.5% 72.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 76.6%
10-10 3.3% 59.6% 3.1% 56.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.3 58.3%
9-11 1.9% 29.0% 2.7% 26.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3 27.0%
8-12 1.0% 9.5% 1.0% 8.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 8.5%
7-13 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6%
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.7% 25.9% 67.9% 4.1 17.4 16.5 13.7 11.6 9.2 7.6 5.7 4.5 3.1 2.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.3 91.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 91.0 9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.5 23.6 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.6 19.4