Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#82
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#70
Pace72.1#98
Improvement-0.2#206

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#48
First Shot+4.0#72
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#100
Layup/Dunks+5.6#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+1.9#82
Improvement+0.2#140

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#126
First Shot+0.1#171
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#92
Layups/Dunks+2.3#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#241
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement-0.5#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 3.2% 6.1% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 27.2% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.0% 26.7% 12.0%
Average Seed 8.5 8.3 8.7
.500 or above 51.0% 68.6% 42.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.8% 20.7% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.2% 21.9% 31.4%
First Four3.4% 4.7% 2.7%
First Round15.4% 24.5% 10.7%
Second Round7.6% 12.5% 5.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 3.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Neutral) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 11
Quad 23 - 36 - 14
Quad 32 - 18 - 15
Quad 47 - 015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 98%     1 - 0 +22.2 +18.8 +2.4
  Nov 10, 2024 320   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 95%     2 - 0 -2.9 +2.9 -6.3
  Nov 13, 2024 102   California W 85-69 70%     3 - 0 +17.7 +6.3 +10.1
  Nov 16, 2024 319   Jackson St. W 94-81 95%     4 - 0 +1.1 +11.8 -11.3
  Nov 21, 2024 40   Nevada L 71-75 34%    
  Nov 29, 2024 334   Tennessee Tech W 83-63 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 75-74 52%    
  Dec 08, 2024 61   TCU L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 18, 2024 317   The Citadel W 81-62 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 238   Austin Peay W 79-65 90%    
  Dec 30, 2024 357   New Orleans W 91-67 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 48   @ LSU L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 07, 2025 28   Mississippi St. L 76-79 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 62   @ Missouri L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 15, 2025 72   South Carolina W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 9   Tennessee L 73-80 26%    
  Jan 21, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 77-91 11%    
  Jan 25, 2025 10   Kentucky L 79-86 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 51   @ Oklahoma L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 04, 2025 19   @ Florida L 78-88 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 29   Texas L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 11, 2025 3   Auburn L 75-85 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 70-83 12%    
  Feb 19, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 76-89 13%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   Mississippi W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 26   @ Texas A&M L 69-78 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   Missouri W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 25   Arkansas L 76-79 38%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   @ Georgia L 74-79 32%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.3 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.2 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.0 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.7 2.7 0.1 0.0 9.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 4.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 5.4 1.5 0.1 12.5 14th
15th 0.2 1.6 4.9 5.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 15.0 15th
16th 1.1 3.8 5.8 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 18.2 16th
Total 1.1 4.0 7.5 11.0 13.5 14.5 13.5 11.5 8.6 6.3 3.8 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 67.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 98.5% 4.6% 93.8% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
11-7 2.5% 97.0% 3.9% 93.2% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.9%
10-8 3.8% 87.4% 1.5% 85.9% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.5 87.2%
9-9 6.3% 70.7% 0.9% 69.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 1.8 70.4%
8-10 8.6% 37.6% 0.4% 37.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.4 37.3%
7-11 11.5% 11.9% 0.1% 11.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 10.1 11.9%
6-12 13.5% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.2 2.2%
5-13 14.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.2%
4-14 13.5% 13.5
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 7.5% 7.5
1-17 4.0% 4.0
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 17.3% 0.4% 16.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 82.7 17.0%