BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#33
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#47
Pace68.3#180
Improvement+3.0#61

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#15
First Shot+5.7#44
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#20
Layup/Dunks-0.9#218
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#16
Freethrows-0.9#246
Improvement+1.3#112

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#60
First Shot-1.1#209
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#2
Layups/Dunks+9.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#353
Freethrows+1.2#100
Improvement+1.7#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 5.1% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 13.8% 21.6% 7.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.0% 88.2% 67.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.4% 87.8% 66.8%
Average Seed 8.3 7.8 8.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.3% 93.4% 74.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.7% 5.9% 11.1%
First Round73.2% 85.6% 62.6%
Second Round40.1% 49.3% 32.3%
Sweet Sixteen12.9% 16.0% 10.1%
Elite Eight5.0% 6.3% 4.0%
Final Four1.7% 2.3% 1.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 9
Quad 26 - 210 - 12
Quad 35 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 88-50 99%     1 - 0 +23.7 +10.3 +14.1
  Nov 08, 2024 163   UC Riverside W 86-80 92%     2 - 0 +3.7 +6.8 -3.5
  Nov 13, 2024 213   Queens W 99-55 95%     3 - 0 +38.6 +17.6 +18.8
  Nov 16, 2024 249   Idaho W 95-71 97%     4 - 0 +16.3 +12.2 +3.5
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.8%    5 - 0 +16.4 +13.0 +8.8
  Nov 28, 2024 26   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 46%     5 - 1 +3.6 +8.4 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 91   North Carolina St. W 72-61 77%     6 - 1 +17.1 +8.7 +9.4
  Dec 03, 2024 66   @ Providence L 64-83 62%     6 - 2 -8.4 +4.5 -15.5
  Dec 11, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 95-67 97%     7 - 2 +19.9 +11.6 +6.0
  Dec 14, 2024 167   Wyoming W 68-49 90%     8 - 2 +19.0 +7.4 +14.7
  Dec 20, 2024 340   Florida A&M W 103-57 99%     9 - 2 +31.9 +15.4 +12.8
  Dec 31, 2024 61   Arizona St. W 76-56 76%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +26.5 +14.5 +13.6
  Jan 04, 2025 3   @ Houston L 55-86 14%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -5.8 +1.7 -11.1
  Jan 07, 2025 12   Texas Tech L 67-72 44%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +10.1 +9.6 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 68   @ TCU L 67-71 63%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +6.4 +6.1 +0.1
  Jan 14, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 85-69 86%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +18.1 +15.2 +3.0
  Jan 18, 2025 84   @ Utah L 72-73 OT 65%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +8.6 -0.1 +8.8
  Jan 21, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 83-67 73%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +23.4 +19.9 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 59   Cincinnati W 80-52 73%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +35.2 +27.6 +12.3
  Jan 28, 2025 20   Baylor W 93-89 OT 51%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +17.3 +24.3 -6.9
  Feb 01, 2025 62   @ Central Florida W 81-75 59%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +17.4 +5.5 +11.4
  Feb 04, 2025 10   Arizona L 77-79 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 18, 2025 7   Kansas L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 75-82 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   West Virginia W 71-67 67%    
  Mar 04, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 71-78 25%    
  Mar 08, 2025 84   Utah W 81-72 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.1 1.9 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.7 5.3 0.3 12.0 5th
6th 0.8 6.4 9.6 2.0 0.0 18.9 6th
7th 0.5 6.5 11.3 4.0 0.2 22.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 8.8 3.5 0.2 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.9 2.3 0.2 8.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 2.0 0.2 4.4 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 0.2 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.2 18.6 22.2 20.8 14.0 6.1 1.4 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 25.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.4% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-6 6.1% 99.5% 6.1% 93.4% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.5%
13-7 14.0% 98.6% 4.2% 94.4% 7.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.0 4.1 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.6%
12-8 20.8% 94.9% 2.5% 92.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.7 5.9 5.2 2.2 0.3 1.1 94.8%
11-9 22.2% 84.8% 2.2% 82.6% 9.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.5 6.2 1.9 0.0 3.4 84.5%
10-10 18.6% 68.8% 1.1% 67.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.5 5.2 3.5 0.1 5.8 68.5%
9-11 11.2% 33.1% 0.7% 32.4% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.3 0.2 7.5 32.6%
8-12 4.4% 8.7% 0.2% 8.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.0 8.5%
7-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 1.0 1.0%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 77.0% 2.5% 74.5% 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 7.1 10.8 14.0 14.9 14.7 8.3 0.4 23.0 76.4%