BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.5#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.7#26
Pace68.3#178
Improvement+5.7#11

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#10
First Shot+7.7#24
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks-0.3#195
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.1#4
Freethrows-0.7#227
Improvement+3.8#30

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#58
First Shot-0.7#208
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#1
Layups/Dunks+9.8#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#349
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+1.9#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 3.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.4% 54.4% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 63.8% 97.0% 42.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 5.7 4.4 6.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round75.0% 84.0% 69.2%
Sweet Sixteen34.9% 46.0% 27.7%
Elite Eight13.4% 16.1% 11.7%
Final Four4.9% 6.0% 4.2%
Championship Game1.6% 1.7% 1.4%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.5%

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 7
Quad 26 - 213 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 344   Central Arkansas W 88-50 99%     1 - 0 +22.9 +9.4 +14.2
  Nov 08, 2024 143   UC Riverside W 86-80 94%     2 - 0 +4.3 +6.0 -2.1
  Nov 13, 2024 207   Queens W 99-55 97%     3 - 0 +38.7 +17.3 +19.1
  Nov 16, 2024 269   Idaho W 95-71 98%     4 - 0 +15.2 +12.1 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.9%    5 - 0 +12.9 +11.5 +6.8
  Nov 28, 2024 29   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 58%     5 - 1 +3.3 +7.1 -2.2
  Nov 29, 2024 104   North Carolina St. W 72-61 88%     6 - 1 +15.0 +8.1 +7.8
  Dec 03, 2024 91   @ Providence L 64-83 78%     6 - 2 -10.6 +2.7 -15.8
  Dec 11, 2024 258   Fresno St. W 95-67 98%     7 - 2 +20.0 +11.6 +6.0
  Dec 14, 2024 174   Wyoming W 68-49 94%     8 - 2 +18.0 +7.3 +13.7
  Dec 20, 2024 326   Florida A&M W 103-57 99%     9 - 2 +33.3 +14.5 +15.1
  Dec 31, 2024 77   Arizona St. W 76-56 86%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +24.7 +11.6 +14.7
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Houston L 55-86 19%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -5.4 +1.4 -10.4
  Jan 07, 2025 7   Texas Tech L 67-72 48%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +12.0 +10.0 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2025 76   @ TCU L 67-71 73%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +6.2 +6.6 -0.6
  Jan 14, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 85-69 89%     11 - 5 2 - 3 +18.9 +16.2 +2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 68   @ Utah L 72-73 OT 70%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +9.9 +0.0 +10.0
  Jan 21, 2025 80   @ Colorado W 83-67 74%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +25.9 +22.2 +4.7
  Jan 25, 2025 48   Cincinnati W 80-52 78%     13 - 6 4 - 4 +36.4 +26.8 +14.2
  Jan 28, 2025 26   Baylor W 93-89 OT 66%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +16.3 +24.7 -8.5
  Feb 01, 2025 70   @ Central Florida W 81-75 71%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +16.9 +4.3 +12.0
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Arizona L 74-85 55%     15 - 7 6 - 5 +4.2 +4.9 -0.3
  Feb 08, 2025 48   @ Cincinnati L 66-84 60%     15 - 8 6 - 6 -4.1 +8.8 -14.6
  Feb 11, 2025 47   @ West Virginia W 73-69 59%     16 - 8 7 - 6 +18.1 +17.6 +0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 80-65 82%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +21.9 +17.7 +5.1
  Feb 18, 2025 19   Kansas W 91-57 60%     18 - 8 9 - 6 +48.0 +24.8 +22.4
  Feb 22, 2025 12   @ Arizona W 96-95 34%     19 - 8 10 - 6 +21.7 +32.4 -10.6
  Feb 26, 2025 77   @ Arizona St. W 91-81 73%     20 - 8 11 - 6 +20.2 +17.9 +1.7
  Mar 01, 2025 47   West Virginia W 77-56 77%     21 - 8 12 - 6 +29.6 +19.8 +11.9
  Mar 04, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. W 88-85 2OT 30%     22 - 8 13 - 6 +24.9 +12.5 +11.9
  Mar 08, 2025 68   Utah W 85-74 85%     23 - 8 14 - 6 +16.4 +10.4 +5.5
  Mar 13, 2025 9   Iowa St. L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 23 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 99.8% 4.5% 95.3% 5.7 0.1 1.3 7.4 14.6 20.1 20.3 25.4 10.0 0.7 0.2 99.8%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 4.5% 95.3% 5.7 0.1 1.3 7.4 14.6 20.1 20.3 25.4 10.0 0.7 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 3.0 2.0 22.3 54.2 20.5 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7% 100.0% 4.0 2.8 24.7 43.2 23.6 5.3 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.2% 100.0% 4.7 0.5 11.5 32.4 35.2 16.4 3.8 0.2
Lose Out 60.6% 99.7% 6.6 0.2 2.9 14.0 25.1 40.0 16.3 1.1