BYU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#41
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#67
Pace71.4#105
Improvement+0.3#166

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#31
First Shot+5.0#56
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#42
Layup/Dunks-1.6#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#17
Freethrows-1.3#258
Improvement-0.5#218

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#77
First Shot-1.8#235
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#1
Layups/Dunks+10.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.2#359
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+0.8#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.4% 4.4% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 11.1% 13.7% 5.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.4% 57.1% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 49.5% 56.2% 35.3%
Average Seed 8.1 7.9 8.6
.500 or above 86.6% 91.5% 76.0%
.500 or above in Conference 51.5% 59.7% 33.5%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.7% 6.8%
First Four6.6% 6.7% 6.6%
First Round47.0% 53.7% 32.6%
Second Round25.5% 29.6% 16.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.4% 10.0% 4.9%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.9% 1.8%
Final Four1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Home) - 68.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 13
Quad 33 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 88-50 98%     1 - 0 +23.8 +11.1 +13.4
  Nov 08, 2024 177   UC Riverside W 86-80 92%     2 - 0 +2.1 +6.7 -4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 265   Queens W 99-55 96%     3 - 0 +35.4 +16.5 +16.6
  Nov 16, 2024 258   Idaho W 95-71 96%     4 - 0 +15.8 +12.5 +2.7
  Nov 23, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 87-43 99.7%    5 - 0 +18.5 +14.7 +9.1
  Nov 28, 2024 28   Mississippi L 85-96 OT 42%     5 - 1 +2.5 +6.1 -2.1
  Nov 29, 2024 79   North Carolina St. W 72-61 66%     6 - 1 +18.3 +8.6 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2024 76   @ Providence L 64-83 53%     6 - 2 -8.5 +6.5 -17.5
  Dec 11, 2024 273   Fresno St. W 95-67 96%     7 - 2 +18.8 +12.8 +3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 159   Wyoming W 68-49 86%     8 - 2 +19.0 +6.3 +15.8
  Dec 20, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 103-57 99%     9 - 2 +29.4 +16.4 +9.3
  Dec 31, 2024 59   Arizona St. W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Houston L 63-74 14%    
  Jan 07, 2025 20   Texas Tech L 75-76 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ TCU W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 14, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 83-74 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 66   @ Utah W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 21, 2025 77   @ Colorado W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 73-72 51%    
  Jan 28, 2025 12   Baylor L 76-78 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 04, 2025 11   Arizona L 79-81 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 11, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 85   Kansas St. W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 18, 2025 8   Kansas L 75-78 38%    
  Feb 22, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 76-84 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 39   West Virginia W 75-72 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 73-84 16%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   Utah W 82-76 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.3 3.1 5.1 1.8 0.1 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 5.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.8 0.8 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.5 0.2 5.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.3 11.7 13.4 13.5 12.2 9.8 7.2 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 91.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 74.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 40.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 15.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.2% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.5% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 99.7% 5.7% 94.0% 5.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 7.2% 98.4% 3.9% 94.5% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
12-8 9.8% 94.9% 2.5% 92.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.5 94.8%
11-9 12.2% 84.7% 1.8% 82.9% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.9 84.4%
10-10 13.5% 66.4% 0.9% 65.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.2 1.8 0.0 4.5 66.1%
9-11 13.4% 34.5% 0.6% 33.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 0.2 8.8 34.1%
8-12 11.7% 10.4% 0.4% 10.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 10.5 10.1%
7-13 9.3% 1.3% 0.1% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.1%
6-14 6.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.1%
5-15 4.2% 4.2
4-16 2.0% 2.0
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 50.4% 1.7% 48.7% 8.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.6 6.9 8.9 9.0 8.1 6.0 0.4 49.6 49.5%