BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.3 #8
Expected Predictive Rating +23.9 #10
Pace 72.2 #90
Improvement +0.3 #165

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 A A+ A- C+ C
Defense #12 A+ C B- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #245 1.38 #14 +2.7 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.92 #22 +2.0 #78
Three Pointers 43% #152 1.09 #82 +2.6 #102
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #22 +7.3 #23
Freethrows 17.8 #161 74% #128 13.3 #140
Second Chance 36.9% #31 1.28 #7 0.47 #8
Turnovers 13.9% #35
Total Offense +11.2 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #357 1.06 #68 +7.8 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #7 0.60 #19 -1.4 #283
Three Pointers 42% #145 0.81 #10 +3.6 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.82 #4 +10.0 #4
Freethrows 12.0 #11 66% #10 7.9 #360
Second Chance 28.4% #100 1.18 #315 0.33 #214
Turnovers 18.0% #98
Total Defense +9.1 #12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #224 -4.1% #6
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.9% #15 -16.1% #6
Possession Length 14.8 #15 18.8 #351
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #11 0.15 #100
Improvement -0.7 #232 +0.9 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.8% 3.0% 1.2%
#1 Seed 17.3% 18.2% 8.5%
Top 2 Seed 47.9% 49.7% 30.3%
Top 4 Seed 89.8% 90.9% 78.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.3% 98.7% 94.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.8 2.7 3.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 98.9% 93.4%
Conference Champion 18.3% 19.7% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
Second Round95.4% 95.8% 91.9%
Sweet Sixteen67.1% 67.8% 59.7%
Elite Eight37.4% 38.3% 28.0%
Final Four18.7% 19.3% 13.2%
Championship Game8.7% 9.0% 5.7%
National Champion3.8% 4.0% 2.5%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 90.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 6
Quad 26 - 117 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 Villanova W 71 - 66 72%  +6  1 - 0 +19 +7 C D A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99%  +28  2 - 0 +32 +16 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 11 277 Delaware W 85 - 68 99%  -0  3 - 0 +7 +22 C+ A+ A -12 C- C F
 Sat, Nov 15 5 Connecticut L 84 - 86 45%  -9  3 - 1 +20 +18 A+ A+ C- +2 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 43 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 79%  +12  4 - 1 +40 +25 A- A+ A+ +13 A+ B B+
 Thu, Nov 27 36 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 74%  +3  5 - 1 +24 +7 A- C- C+ +17 A+ B- C
 Fri, Nov 28 75 Dayton W 83 - 79 88%  -0  6 - 1 +12 +11 A C A +1 D+ B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 147 California Baptist W 66 - 44 96%  +18  7 - 1 +23 +27 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 39 Clemson W 67 - 64 76%  -5  8 - 1 +16 +12 D+ A+ B+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 295 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99%  +14  9 - 1 +36 +15 A+ D+ C- +18 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 144 Pacific W 93 - 57 97%  +18  10 - 1 +34 +16 B- A+ B+ +17 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 202 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 98%  +5  11 - 1 +13 +9 A- A+ F +3 A+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 22 255 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 99%  +9  12 - 1 +20 +22 A+ A+ A+ -4 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 74 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 81%  +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +21 +6 C- A+ F +14 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 88 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 93%  +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +32 +21 A+ B C- +8 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 117 @Utah W 87 - 73 91% 
 Wed, Jan 14 44 TCU W 81 - 69 87% 
 Sat, Jan 17 17 @Texas Tech W 79 - 78 53% 
 Sat, Jan 24 117 Utah W 90 - 70 97% 
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 80 - 81 48% 
 Sat, Jan 31 18 @Kansas W 76 - 75 53% 
 Wed, Feb 4 54 @Oklahoma St. W 89 - 81 76% 
 Sat, Feb 7 11 Houston W 73 - 69 64% 
 Tue, Feb 10 32 @Baylor W 82 - 79 62% 
 Sat, Feb 14 77 Colorado W 89 - 73 93% 
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 78 - 84 28% 
 Sat, Feb 21 3 Iowa St. W 77 - 76 50% 
 Tue, Feb 24 50 Central Florida W 88 - 75 87% 
 Sat, Feb 28 67 @West Virginia W 75 - 66 78% 
 Tue, Mar 3 58 @Cincinnati W 77 - 69 77% 
 Sat, Mar 7 17 Texas Tech W 82 - 75 73% 
Totals 25 - 6 13 - 5 +20 +11 A A+ A- +9 A+ C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.7 7.0 3.0 0.6 18.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.8 8.4 7.2 1.7 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.3 7.9 1.6 0.0 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 8.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 18.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.6 10.1 15.3 18.6 19.2 14.5 8.6 3.0 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.8% 3.0    2.7 0.3
16-2 80.5% 7.0    4.0 2.6 0.3
15-3 39.2% 5.7    1.7 2.8 1.0 0.1
14-4 9.8% 1.9    0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 9.3 6.4 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-1 3.0% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
16-2 8.6% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.5 4.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.5% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 1.8 4.9 7.2 2.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 19.2% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 2.2 3.3 9.2 5.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 18.6% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 2.7 1.4 6.3 7.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.3% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 3.3 0.4 2.6 6.3 4.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 10.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 3.8 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.6% 99.9% 4.8% 95.1% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 2.8% 99.8% 2.7% 97.2% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
8-10 1.1% 99.5% 1.8% 97.7% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
7-11 0.4% 94.9% 3.8% 91.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.7%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 14.8% 85.2% 2.8 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 94.2 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 72.0 28.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5