Colorado
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#76
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#28
Pace68.9#186
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#105
First Shot+1.5#134
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#110
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#185
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement-0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#54
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#32
Layups/Dunks+1.9#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#243
Freethrows+2.8#25
Improvement+0.2#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 6.0% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 40.4% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.5% 40.1% 18.3%
Average Seed 9.0 8.7 9.2
.500 or above 54.7% 75.5% 49.8%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 32.1% 13.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.0% 7.5% 20.5%
First Four6.2% 8.8% 5.6%
First Round19.1% 35.2% 15.2%
Second Round7.9% 15.5% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 4.0% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa St. (Home) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 12
Quad 24 - 37 - 16
Quad 33 - 010 - 16
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 76-56 92%     1 - 0 +11.9 -4.0 +15.8
  Nov 08, 2024 180   Northern Colorado W 90-88 2OT 86%     2 - 0 -2.0 -4.7 +2.3
  Nov 13, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-53 93%     3 - 0 +20.6 +10.3 +11.7
  Nov 17, 2024 243   Harvard W 88-66 91%     4 - 0 +14.4 +13.9 +0.7
  Nov 25, 2024 14   Michigan St. L 56-72 22%     4 - 1 -0.3 -7.4 +6.8
  Nov 26, 2024 10   Connecticut W 73-72 19%     5 - 1 +17.7 +14.4 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 6   Iowa St. L 71-99 13%     5 - 2 -8.4 +3.4 -10.6
  Dec 02, 2024 301   Pacific W 75-66 95%     6 - 2 -1.7 -3.2 +1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 97   Colorado St. W 72-55 70%     7 - 2 +19.0 +0.7 +18.2
  Dec 13, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 81-70 77%     8 - 2 +10.7 +14.6 -2.9
  Dec 21, 2024 345   Bellarmine W 79-55 97%     9 - 2 +9.2 -5.4 +14.2
  Dec 30, 2024 6   Iowa St. L 70-79 19%    
  Jan 04, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 08, 2025 81   @ Central Florida L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 12, 2025 39   West Virginia L 69-70 45%    
  Jan 15, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 66-70 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 21, 2025 42   BYU L 74-75 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 11   @ Arizona L 69-81 14%    
  Jan 28, 2025 59   Arizona St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 02, 2025 66   @ TCU L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 65   @ Utah L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 5   Houston L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 11, 2025 8   @ Kansas L 65-78 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 81   Central Florida W 73-70 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 67-82 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 12   Baylor L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 24, 2025 8   Kansas L 68-75 25%    
  Mar 02, 2025 84   @ Kansas St. L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 05, 2025 18   @ Texas Tech L 66-76 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 66   TCU W 70-67 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.4 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.5 1.7 0.1 11.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 11.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.6 15th
16th 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 10.6 16th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.2 9.4 12.4 14.1 14.4 12.7 9.9 7.1 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 42.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 28.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.6% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.3% 99.5% 2.1% 97.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 2.7% 97.9% 1.1% 96.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.9%
11-9 4.8% 93.0% 0.6% 92.4% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.3 93.0%
10-10 7.1% 82.0% 0.4% 81.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.3 81.9%
9-11 9.9% 49.3% 0.3% 49.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 0.2 5.0 49.1%
8-12 12.7% 17.9% 0.2% 17.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 0.3 10.4 17.8%
7-13 14.4% 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.0 2.5%
6-14 14.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 14.1 0.2%
5-15 12.4% 12.4
4-16 9.4% 9.4
3-17 6.2% 6.2
2-18 3.0% 3.0
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 22.6% 0.2% 22.4% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 5.5 0.6 77.4 22.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%