Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.3 #111
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #170
Pace 79.4 #14
Improvement -3.6 #341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #101 C B+ B C- B+
Defense #123 C C+ A+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #216 1.19 #142 -0.2 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #349 0.68 #270 -4.4 #350
Three Pointers 53% #12 0.92 #290 +3.7 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #199 -1.0 #200
Freethrows 16.8 #222 69% #283 11.6 #236
Second Chance 33.4% #103 1.21 #27 0.40 #41
Turnovers 14.7% #68
Total Offense +3.1 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.18 #198 +1.4 #127
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.78 #210 +0.2 #172
Three Pointers 45% #70 1.01 #178 -2.0 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #188 -0.4 #188
Freethrows 17.4 #194 73% #189 12.6 #166
Second Chance 32.5% #255 0.92 #44 0.30 #137
Turnovers 21.4% #14
Total Defense +1.3 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #36 -0.1% #159
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #243 0.9% #198
Possession Length 13.9 #3 17.6 #236
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #155 0.16 #151
Improvement +0.9 #124 -4.5 #361

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 11.0
.500 or above 6.6% 13.4% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 12.3% 3.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 10.6% 25.1%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 13
Quad 22 - 54 - 18
Quad 31 - 15 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 346 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 95%  +17  1 - 0 +17 +19 B+ C A+ -5 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 301 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 91%  +20  2 - 0 +26 +10 F A+ D+ +12 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 11 12 @Florida L 76 - 78 7%  -1  2 - 1 +19 +4 D+ C+ A +15 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 235 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 85%  +19  3 - 1 +7 +6 C+ D- A+ +0 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 213 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 83%  +14  4 - 1 +20 +5 C C- A+ +11 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 91%  +13  5 - 1 +20 -0 D+ B- F +16 A C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 40 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 21%  -22  5 - 2 -23 -13 F C C- -8 D+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 24 Georgia L 73 - 107 22%  -19  5 - 3 -21 -3 C C- A+ -15 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 11 Houston L 67 - 82 9%  -10  5 - 4 +4 +5 C A+ F -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 167 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 69%  -5  5 - 5 -9 +10 A- C B -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 75 @Dayton L 69 - 97 27%  -13  5 - 6 -17 -4 D- D+ D -11 D+ B C
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99%  +32  6 - 6 +20 +7 D C B- +10 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 328 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 94%  +18  7 - 6 +11 +16 C- A+ A- -3 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 26 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 10%  -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +5 +2 D+ A+ C +3 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 6 Duke L 87 - 91 11%  -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +14 +23 A+ A+ C -9 D+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 34 North Carolina St. L 79 - 85 27% 
 Tue, Jan 13 69 @Syracuse L 76 - 83 26% 
 Sat, Jan 17 62 Wake Forest L 81 - 83 44% 
 Tue, Jan 20 36 @Miami (FL) L 76 - 88 12% 
 Sat, Jan 24 28 @SMU L 78 - 91 11% 
 Wed, Jan 28 84 California W 80 - 79 51% 
 Sat, Jan 31 79 Stanford L 79 - 80 49% 
 Sat, Feb 7 59 @Notre Dame L 71 - 79 24% 
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Virginia L 75 - 84 21% 
 Sat, Feb 14 68 @Virginia Tech L 77 - 84 25% 
 Tue, Feb 17 151 Boston College W 78 - 71 75% 
 Sat, Feb 21 39 @Clemson L 69 - 81 14% 
 Tue, Feb 24 36 Miami (FL) L 79 - 85 28% 
 Sat, Feb 28 114 @Georgia Tech L 80 - 82 42% 
 Wed, Mar 4 82 @Pittsburgh L 74 - 80 30% 
 Sat, Mar 7 28 SMU L 81 - 88 26% 
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 13 +4 +3 C B+ B +1 C C+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.7 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.0 0.2 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.0 0.0 6.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.6 3.2 0.2 8.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 3.8 5.9 1.0 0.0 10.9 14th
15th 0.2 2.7 7.2 3.0 0.1 13.2 15th
16th 0.2 2.8 7.9 5.2 0.7 16.8 16th
17th 0.5 3.3 7.2 5.7 1.1 0.0 17.8 17th
18th 0.6 2.5 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 11.3 18th
Total 0.6 3.0 7.7 13.4 17.2 18.2 16.0 11.6 6.4 3.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 15.2% 6.1% 9.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.7%
11-7 0.6% 8.6% 8.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.6%
10-8 1.4% 2.4% 0.3% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.1%
9-9 3.6% 3.6
8-10 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 11.6% 11.6
6-12 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 16.0
5-13 18.2% 18.2
4-14 17.2% 17.2
3-15 13.4% 13.4
2-16 7.7% 7.7
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 10.5 99.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%