Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 80
Results Rating +8.3 73
Pace 76.4 22
Improvement +4.9 25

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 77 C+ B B+ C B
Defense B- 89 C+ B B+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 184 B- 62% 89 +1.4 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 343 C 38% 187 -3.6 340
Three Pointers 50% 25 C- 33% 232 +3.9 55
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.2 39 C +0.4 162
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 121
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 126 B+ 1.17 33 B 0.38 56
Turnovers B+ 13.9% 30
Freethrows C 0.31 179 C+ 74% 149 C 0.23 154
Total Offense B- +4.4 77

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 41% 293 C+ 10.0% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 351 D+ 6.9% 293
Three Pointers C 84% 191 D+ 1.3% 289
Total C- 54% 210 C+ 5.3% 145

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 322 C+ 56% 134 -3.8 59
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 137 C 38% 201 +0.5 229
Three Pointers 45% 55 C 34% 195 +2.4 292
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 84 C -0.4 168
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 139
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 143 B+ 0.91 33 B 0.27 67
Turnovers B+ 19.7% 35
Freethrows B- 0.27 87 C 72% 159 B- 0.20 87
Total Defense B- +3.1 89

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 271 A- 17.6% 25
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 195 C+ 5.6% 116
Three Pointers D+ 87% 269 D+ 0.4% 286
Total D+ 60% 275 B 7.2% 64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 15 18.1 301
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 175 0.16 157
Improvement +3.4 #41 +1.5 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 93 78 62
Results Rating Rank 93 74 57
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 12 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2% 3% 0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 65% 89% 49%
.500 or above in Conference 62% 87% 45%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 3% 0%
First Round1% 2% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Miami (FL) (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 24 - 57 - 15
Quad 32 - 19 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 345 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 97% +17  91% 1 - 0 A- +16 A+ +17 A- B- A+ C- -3 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 312 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 96% +20  99% 2 - 0 A+ +25 A- +11 D+ A+ C- A +10 A D A-
 Tue, Nov 11 4 @Florida L 76 - 78 5% -1  34% 2 - 1 A+ +25 B- +4 C- B- A A+ +21 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 217 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 89% +6  79% 3 - 1 B- +8 B +5 B C- A+ C+ +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 266 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 93% +14  99% 4 - 1 A- +17 C +1 C C A A+ +12 B A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 97% +13  85% 5 - 1 A- +16 D -5 D B F+ A+ +17 A- D A+
 Fri, Nov 28 34 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 25% -22  0% 5 - 2 F -22 F -15 F B- D+ D+ -4 D F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 32 Georgia L 73 - 107 34% -19  5% 5 - 3 F -22 D- -7 D+ C A+ F -12 D- F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 6 Houston L 67 - 82 9% -10  0% 5 - 4 B- +7 C+ +3 C+ A+ F B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 185 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 80% -5  18% 5 - 5 D -10 B- +5 B+ D- B F -13 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 87 @Dayton L 69 - 97 41% -13  1% 5 - 6 F -18 D- -7 D+ D+ F+ F+ -8 C- B+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +29  97% 6 - 6 A +21 B- +4 D+ C A- A+ +14 B- B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 306 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 95% +18  97% 7 - 6 B+ +12 A +13 C A- B C+ +1 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 27 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 16% -7  13% 7 - 7 0 - 1 B- +5 C- -1 D A B- B+ +6 A C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Duke L 87 - 91 10% -0  49% 7 - 8 0 - 2 A +18 A+ +23 A+ A+ C+ D -6 C- B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 30% -24  0% 7 - 9 0 - 3 F -31 F+ -8 F+ A A- F -19 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 73 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 37% -1  44% 7 - 10 0 - 4 C+ +3 A +12 B+ A+ C F+ -9 F C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 65 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 57% +3  70% 7 - 11 0 - 5 C+ +5 C- -2 D A F B+ +6 A- B F
 Tue, Jan 20 39 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 20% +0  46% 8 - 11 1 - 5 A +18 D+ -2 B F C A+ +21 A+ A A
 Sat, Jan 24 31 @SMU L 80 - 83 16% -4  12% 8 - 12 1 - 6 A- +15 A +12 B- B+ A+ B- +3 B A- F+
 Wed, Jan 28 70 California W 63 - 61 58% +5  78% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B- +7 F+ -8 C F A+ A+ +16 A+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 77 Stanford W 88 - 80 61% +7  72% 10 - 12 3 - 6 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ A+ A+ D+ -4 D B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 86 @Notre Dame W 82 - 79 41% +8  95% 11 - 12 4 - 6 B+ +13 B+ +8 C+ C+ A+ B +4 A- A C
 Tue, Feb 10 22 Virginia L 58 - 61 26% +2  68% 11 - 13 4 - 7 B +11 F+ -9 F D+ A+ A+ +20 A+ C+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 57 @Virginia Tech W 92 - 69 30% +3  40% 12 - 13 5 - 7 A+ +36 A+ +31 A+ D- A+ A- +7 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Feb 17 139 Boston College W 80 - 72 81% -7  11% 13 - 13 6 - 7 B- +6 A- +11 B B+ B+ D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 41 @Clemson W 70 - 65 21% +1  65% 14 - 13 7 - 7 A +21 A+ +16 A+ A+ B B+ +5 C+ A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 24 39 Miami (FL) L 79 - 82 39%
 Sat, Feb 28 140 @Georgia Tech W 83 - 80 62%
 Wed, Mar 4 98 @Pittsburgh L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 31 SMU L 83 - 87 34%
Totals 16 - 15 9 - 9 +7 B- +4 C+ C B B- +3 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C C- C 38% 20% 50% B C+ C+ B+ B B+ C C+ C B- C+ C C C 33% 22% 45% B- C+ C+ B+ B B+ B- C B-
1.15 62% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .38 14% .31 74% .23 1.04 56% 38% 34% 0 -1 1.00 29% 0.9 .27 20% .27 72% .22
Nov
4		 Alcorn St. A+ A- D- A- B+ 54% 5% 40% A- A- C- B+ B- A+ B- D- C C- C+ F F F 30% 39% 32% A+ F D D D A+ F A+ F
1.42 71% 33% 39% +10 +3 1.28 37% 1.4 .50 11% .37 68% .25 1.00 54% 53% 50% +12 -3 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 28% .49 59% .29
Nov
7		 Alabama St. A- A- B- D- D+ 27% 8% 65% C D+ A A+ A+ C- F A+ F A A- A+ C+ A 33% 27% 40% B A C+ F D A- D+ A+ C+
1.29 71% 40% 30% 0 +1 1.03 44% 1.9 .82 19% .22 93% .21 0.82 44% 13% 32% -13 -1 0.75 29% 1.1 .31 22% .31 58% .18
Nov
11		 Florida B- D F+ F D- 39% 11% 50% A+ C- D A+ B- A A A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A 41% 6% 53% C- A A- A+ A+ A+ F B F
0.94 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 16% 1.1 .18 12% .35 84% .30 0.96 76% 33% 19% -5 +2 0.96 38% 0.5 .18 22% .51 69% .35
Nov
18		 Tennessee Martin B B- F C+ B- 45% 9% 46% A B C D C- A+ C F D- C+ B+ F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C- F F A+ F F F
1.15 64% 20% 35% +1 +2 1.09 33% 0.9 .29 8% .33 57% .19 0.97 50% 63% 39% +6 0 1.13 37% 1.2 .43 34% .42 76% .32
Nov
21		 Georgia Southern C B F C C- 28% 3% 68% C+ C D- A+ C A B F C- A+ B+ C- B+ B 30% 13% 57% B- B A- A+ A+ A D+ F F
1.18 65% 0% 34% +1 +2 1.07 29% 1.3 .38 13% .40 66% .26 0.87 47% 43% 28% -8 0 0.88 21% 0.7 .14 20% .36 88% .32
Nov
25		 Cal St. Bakersfield D B- A+ F F 44% 2% 54% A+ D C+ A- B F+ A A- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A 49% 31% 20% F+ A- D- C- D A+ F A+ D-
1.10 63% 100% 24% -5 +3 0.98 38% 1.2 .46 21% .45 79% .36 0.73 55% 21% 11% -14 -1 0.73 36% 1.0 .36 35% .49 62% .30
Nov
28		 Texas A&M F F F F F 30% 14% 56% B- F B C B- D+ C F F D+ B+ A+ F D 41% 7% 52% C D F A- F+ A+ F D- F
0.78 41% 13% 22% -19 0 0.65 34% 0.9 .31 21% .29 47% .13 1.26 52% 0% 52% +9 +2 1.23 52% 0.8 .43 21% .42 80% .34
Dec
2		 Georgia D- D- C D D 46% 14% 40% B+ D+ D+ B+ C A+ C+ F D F F F C- D- 45% 5% 50% D- D- F F F A- C C- C
0.93 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.89 28% 1.0 .28 14% .27 50% .13 1.37 73% 67% 34% +9 +2 1.24 52% 1.4 .72 18% .33 76% .25
Dec
6		 Houston C+ C F F D+ 41% 5% 55% A+ C+ A+ A A+ F B- B+ B B C+ F F F+ 38% 20% 42% F F B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+
0.97 56% 0% 25% -10 +2 0.86 41% 1.1 .46 27% .36 72% .26 1.18 62% 55% 43% +11 0 1.24 36% 0.6 .21 19% .16 78% .12
Dec
13		 Massachusetts B- A+ F C- B 42% 7% 52% A- B+ A F D- B D- A+ C- F C A F F+ 49% 17% 34% F+ F D+ F F D+ B- D- C
1.17 76% 25% 32% +5 +2 1.17 38% 0.5 .20 15% .33 83% .27 1.26 59% 30% 50% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.6 .53 17% .31 71% .22
Dec
16		 Dayton D- F+ F B- D 35% 19% 46% B- D+ B- F D+ F+ A+ C- A+ F+ F A+ B C- 40% 13% 48% C C- A F+ B+ D+ F F F
0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33 1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61
Dec
19		 Mississippi Valley B- A D- D- D+ 33% 11% 56% C+ D+ B- D C A- D+ B C A+ F B A+ B- 24% 37% 39% C- B- D+ A+ B A+ F A+ D-
1.29 74% 33% 31% +2 +1 1.09 41% 1.1 .46 13% .37 79% .29 0.66 70% 33% 19% -8 -3 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 34% .45 55% .24
Dec
22		 Jacksonville A A+ D D+ C+ 29% 12% 59% C C A+ D+ A- B A A A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 15% 32% 53% A+ C B A+ A+ F B C- B-
1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35 0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17
Dec
30		 North Carolina C- F A- F F+ 26% 13% 61% B+ D B- A+ A B- B- F C- B+ C- C+ A+ A 37% 15% 48% C- A D- A- C C- B- C- C+
0.95 36% 43% 27% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .35 13% .23 57% .13 1.14 65% 38% 27% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .37 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
3		 Duke A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 16% 52% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C+ A C A- D B- F F D+ 37% 7% 57% B- C- C B+ B A+ F F F
1.25 56% 50% 46% +11 0 1.24 30% 1.8 .53 19% .28 69% .19 1.30 59% 67% 42% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.1 .44 22% .46 92% .42
Jan
10		 North Carolina St. F+ C F F F 47% 8% 45% A- F+ F A+ A A- A+ C+ A+ F F C+ F F 22% 29% 49% A+ F F+ F F C- C- C- C-
0.89 54% 0% 22% -13 +2 0.80 15% 2.5 .38 17% .45 69% .31 1.46 77% 35% 55% +19 -2 1.36 37% 1.8 .67 12% .34 78% .26
Jan
13		 Syracuse A C+ F B B+ 45% 12% 43% A- B+ A- A+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F+ F F F F 39% 13% 48% D+ F F+ A C+ B+ A A- A
1.18 57% 17% 36% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.4 .55 19% .46 74% .34 1.29 81% 71% 42% +19 +1 1.43 38% 0.8 .31 19% .25 60% .15
Jan
17		 Wake Forest C- A- A- F D+ 21% 21% 58% D- D A+ C A F A A+ A+ B+ B F A B+ 23% 23% 54% A A- A D- B F A+ C+ A+
1.03 67% 44% 24% -6 -1 0.88 46% 1.0 .46 24% .38 89% .34 1.05 54% 62% 27% -1 -1 0.96 24% 1.3 .32 8% .20 75% .15
Jan
20		 Miami (FL) D+ C- A B B 41% 27% 33% C+ B F F F C C+ B+ B- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% B A+ A+ D- A A A- D B
0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20 0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20
Jan
24		 SMU A A F C B- 30% 21% 48% C+ B- A+ D+ B+ A+ C- D D+ B- C+ F C+ B+ 34% 17% 49% D B B- A A- F+ F B- F+
1.18 71% 25% 33% +1 -1 1.02 42% 0.9 .37 12% .25 67% .17 1.22 61% 56% 35% +4 0 1.11 34% 0.8 .29 10% .38 74% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 California F+ A C F C+ 27% 29% 44% F C C- F F A+ B F C- A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 19% 31% 50% A+ A+ A F B- B- A B+ A
0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18 0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
31		 Stanford A+ A A+ C- A+ 48% 11% 41% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ D+ D- F D- F 25% 24% 51% A+ D C- A B C+ A+ A- A+
1.27 68% 80% 32% +8 +2 1.22 24% 2.0 .48 13% .48 79% .38 1.16 64% 46% 39% +8 -1 1.15 36% 0.8 .28 16% .16 67% .10
Feb
7		 Notre Dame B+ F F A C 29% 12% 59% B C+ D+ A C+ A+ B B- B+ B C D- A+ A 33% 20% 47% C- A- C+ A+ A C F A- D
1.13 47% 0% 40% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.2 .26 7% .33 77% .25 1.09 61% 45% 27% -3 0 0.96 33% 0.6 .21 17% .40 63% .25
Feb
10		 Virginia F+ D F F F 33% 17% 50% B+ F C- D D+ A+ A C- A- A+ A+ D+ A A+ 24% 18% 58% A A+ A+ F C+ A A+ A+ A+
0.85 47% 22% 19% -17 0 0.67 24% 0.8 .20 12% .37 73% .27 0.90 42% 44% 28% -8 -1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 21% .15 63% .09
Feb
14		 Virginia Tech A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 12% 42% A A+ F A+ D- A+ B+ C- B A- A+ B- F C+ 43% 24% 33% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B F+ C+
1.42 63% 83% 55% +20 +2 1.46 17% 1.3 .22 8% .29 71% .20 1.07 43% 33% 56% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.6 .13 15% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Boston College A- D A+ C+ B 31% 16% 53% C+ B B- A B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ D F F 25% 36% 38% A+ F A+ B+ A+ F A- A+ A+
1.20 50% 57% 33% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .34 12% .59 77% .46 1.08 50% 45% 48% +8 -3 1.13 20% 0.9 .18 10% .22 23% .05
Feb
21		 Clemson A+ A+ F A A+ 37% 9% 53% A A+ C- A+ A+ B B A+ A B+ D+ C+ C- C+ 30% 11% 60% B- C+ C- A+ A+ C- B+ F C
1.17 69% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 21% 2.2 .46 17% .32 88% .28 1.09 64% 40% 36% +4 +1 1.11 30% 0.0 .00 13% .29 87% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 1.4 1.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 0.8 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.8 10.2 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 5.3 22.9 5.8 34.1 9th
10th 0.4 16.1 10.0 0.2 26.6 10th
11th 3.3 7.4 0.3 11.0 11th
12th 4.3 0.5 4.8 12th
13th 0.9 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 8.9 29.3 36.0 20.9 4.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.8% 16.8% 0.1% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 4.0 16.7%
10-8 20.9% 3.2% 0.1% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 20.3 3.0%
9-9 36.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 35.8 0.4%
8-10 29.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.3 0.0%
7-11 8.9% 8.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 10.9 98.3 1.6%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 62.5% 9.6 12.5 18.8 15.6 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 43.1% 10.5 0.8 4.1 13.0 25.2
Lose Out 5.0%