Florida St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.8 #101
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #102
Pace 77.0 #18
Improvement -0.3 #197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 C B B C B
Defense #113 C C+ B+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #182 1.23 #91 +1.4 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.74 #194 -3.3 #331
Three Pointers 50% #27 0.93 #287 +2.3 #100
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #161 +0.4 #160
Freethrows 0.29 #220 72% #185 0.21 #209
Second Chance 33.1% #113 1.18 #31 0.39 #46
Turnovers 14.1% #37
Total Offense +2.9 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.17 #198 +3.0 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #155 0.76 #181 -0.3 #206
Three Pointers 46% #52 1.02 #191 -2.5 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #172 +0.2 #172
Freethrows 0.28 #107 73% #217 0.20 #117
Second Chance 30.9% #189 0.95 #70 0.29 #122
Turnovers 19.9% #33
Total Defense +1.8 #113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #48 -1.0% #93
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #192 0.5% #200
Possession Length 14.9 #18 17.9 #285
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.17 #189
Improvement +0.4 #154 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.0 11.4
.500 or above 6.0% 13.6% 2.6%
.500 or above in Conference 5.0% 11.6% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 2.6% 15.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 23 - 65 - 17
Quad 32 - 26 - 19
Quad 47 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 348 Alcorn St. W 108 - 76 96% +17  1 - 0 +17 +20 B+ B A+ -5 F D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 322 Alabama St. W 101 - 64 94% +20  2 - 0 +24 +12 D A+ C +9 A+ D A-
 Tue, Nov 11 5 @Florida L 76 - 78 4% -1  2 - 1 +23 +5 D+ B- A +18 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 203 Tennessee Martin W 87 - 73 84% +6  3 - 1 +8 +7 B C- A+ -0 F+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 260 Georgia Southern W 98 - 72 89% +14  4 - 1 +17 +4 C- C A+ +9 B- A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 59 94% +13  5 - 1 +17 -2 D+ B- D +15 A- D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 27 Texas A&M L 59 - 95 16% -22  5 - 2 -20 -11 F B- C -7 D F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 34 Georgia L 73 - 107 27% -19  5 - 3 -23 -3 C C- A+ -16 F+ F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 6 Houston L 67 - 82 7% -10  5 - 4 +7 +5 C A+ D- +1 F+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 173 Massachusetts L 95 - 103 71% -5  5 - 5 -9 +9 B+ D- B -17 F F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 88 @Dayton L 69 - 97 34% -13  5 - 6 -19 -4 D C- D -12 C B- D+
 Fri, Dec 19 365 Mississippi Valley W 96 - 49 99% +29  6 - 6 +20 +8 D+ C+ B+ +10 B- B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 295 Jacksonville W 87 - 63 92% +18  7 - 6 +13 +17 C A B+ -2 C A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 29 @North Carolina L 66 - 79 11% -7  7 - 7 0 - 1 +5 +0 D A- C+ +5 A B- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 3 Duke L 87 - 91 8% -0  7 - 8 0 - 2 +17 +25 A+ A+ B- -8 C- B A
 Sat, Jan 10 23 North Carolina St. L 69 - 113 21% -24  7 - 9 0 - 3 -31 -5 F+ A A- -21 F F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 68 @Syracuse L 86 - 94 27% -1  7 - 10 0 - 4 +3 +15 B+ A+ C -11 F C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 75 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 50% +3  7 - 11 0 - 5 +4 +2 D A D- +2 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 40 @Miami (FL) W 65 - 63 16% +0  8 - 11 1 - 5 +18 -0 B F C+ +18 A+ A- A
 Sat, Jan 24 39 @SMU L 80 - 83 14% -4  8 - 12 1 - 6 +13 +15 B- B+ A+ -2 B- A- F
 Wed, Jan 28 64 California W 63 - 61 46% +5  9 - 12 2 - 6 +8 -5 C F A+ +12 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 31 86 Stanford W 88 - 80 55% +7  10 - 12 3 - 6 +11 +18 A+ A+ A+ -7 D B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 81 @Notre Dame L 73 - 78 32%
 Tue, Feb 10 25 Virginia L 74 - 82 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 60 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 82 24%
 Tue, Feb 17 127 Boston College W 76 - 70 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 33 @Clemson L 67 - 79 12%
 Tue, Feb 24 40 Miami (FL) L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @Georgia Tech L 80 - 81 44%
 Wed, Mar 4 93 @Pittsburgh L 74 - 78 35%
 Sat, Mar 7 39 SMU L 80 - 86 29%
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 12 +5 +3 C B B +2 C C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.5 1.4 0.3 2.2 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 1.5 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 4.6 0.6 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 1.3 7.2 2.6 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.2 6.4 7.0 0.6 14.1 12th
13th 2.1 10.7 2.4 0.0 15.1 13th
14th 0.1 7.3 6.5 0.1 14.0 14th
15th 0.0 1.4 9.7 1.2 12.2 15th
16th 0.1 4.9 3.5 0.0 8.5 16th
17th 0.8 4.6 0.5 5.9 17th
18th 2.0 1.3 0.0 3.3 18th
Total 2.9 12.2 23.3 26.1 19.7 10.9 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 16.1% 16.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.1%
10-8 0.9% 4.5% 4.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.5%
9-9 4.0% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 3.9 0.3%
8-10 10.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 10.9
7-11 19.7% 19.7
6-12 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 26.1
5-13 23.3% 23.3
4-14 12.2% 12.2
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.1 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%