Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.8#4
Expected Predictive Rating+23.5#3
Pace56.8#360
Improvement-0.9#231

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#11
First Shot+6.8#34
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#9
Layup/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#67
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense+11.6#3
First Shot+11.8#2
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks+11.4#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-0.5#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.3% 18.8% 11.0%
#1 Seed 70.6% 74.7% 61.9%
Top 2 Seed 99.4% 99.8% 98.5%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.3% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen78.7% 78.8% 78.4%
Elite Eight57.5% 57.8% 56.7%
Final Four36.6% 37.3% 35.0%
Championship Game20.1% 20.3% 19.5%
National Champion10.4% 10.6% 10.0%

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 4
Quad 27 - 019 - 5
Quad 34 - 023 - 5
Quad 45 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 262   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +48.6 +24.4 +26.1
  Nov 09, 2024 2   Auburn L 69-74 44%     1 - 1 +19.3 +13.8 +4.9
  Nov 13, 2024 305   Louisiana W 91-45 99.5%    2 - 1 +34.8 +12.5 +21.2
  Nov 22, 2024 217   Hofstra W 80-44 99%     3 - 1 +30.2 +17.7 +16.5
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Alabama L 80-85 OT 57%     3 - 2 +16.1 +8.3 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 95   Notre Dame W 65-54 94%     4 - 2 +16.2 +4.0 +13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 54   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 87%     4 - 3 +7.8 +12.3 -4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 72   Butler W 79-51 94%     5 - 3 +33.2 +17.2 +20.1
  Dec 10, 2024 101   Troy W 62-42 97%     6 - 3 +21.6 +8.5 +18.5
  Dec 18, 2024 248   Toledo W 78-49 99%     7 - 3 +21.5 -5.4 +26.4
  Dec 21, 2024 177   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-51 98%     8 - 3 +32.2 +28.0 +10.3
  Dec 30, 2024 92   @ Oklahoma St. W 60-47 91%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +21.4 -3.4 +25.5
  Jan 04, 2025 20   BYU W 86-55 81%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +44.7 +26.6 +21.7
  Jan 06, 2025 76   TCU W 65-46 94%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +23.7 +10.2 +17.2
  Jan 11, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 87-57 84%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +42.4 +26.6 +17.0
  Jan 15, 2025 47   West Virginia W 70-54 90%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +24.6 +25.0 +4.2
  Jan 18, 2025 70   @ Central Florida W 69-68 87%     14 - 3 6 - 0 +11.9 +4.2 +7.7
  Jan 22, 2025 68   Utah W 70-36 94%     15 - 3 7 - 0 +39.4 +12.2 +33.4
  Jan 25, 2025 19   @ Kansas W 92-86 2OT 63%     16 - 3 8 - 0 +25.5 +19.5 +5.3
  Jan 29, 2025 47   @ West Virginia W 63-49 80%     17 - 3 9 - 0 +28.1 +17.2 +14.6
  Feb 01, 2025 7   Texas Tech L 81-82 OT 71%     17 - 4 9 - 1 +16.0 +13.3 +2.7
  Feb 04, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 72-63 96%     18 - 4 10 - 1 +11.9 +12.8 +0.4
  Feb 08, 2025 80   @ Colorado W 69-59 88%     19 - 4 11 - 1 +19.9 +18.3 +3.8
  Feb 10, 2025 26   Baylor W 76-65 84%     20 - 4 12 - 1 +23.3 +23.9 +1.7
  Feb 15, 2025 12   @ Arizona W 62-58 58%     21 - 4 13 - 1 +24.7 +5.3 +19.9
  Feb 18, 2025 77   @ Arizona St. W 80-65 88%     22 - 4 14 - 1 +25.2 +22.6 +4.6
  Feb 22, 2025 9   Iowa St. W 68-59 73%     23 - 4 15 - 1 +25.4 +14.6 +12.1
  Feb 24, 2025 7   @ Texas Tech W 69-61 51%     24 - 4 16 - 1 +30.5 +13.9 +17.6
  Mar 01, 2025 48   Cincinnati W 73-64 90%     25 - 4 17 - 1 +17.4 +13.7 +4.6
  Mar 03, 2025 19   Kansas W 65-59 80%     26 - 4 18 - 1 +20.0 +6.0 +14.5
  Mar 08, 2025 26   @ Baylor W 65-61 69%     27 - 4 19 - 1 +21.8 +12.7 +9.9
  Mar 13, 2025 80   Colorado W 72-56 92%    
Projected Record 28 - 4 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 100.0% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.3 70.6 28.7 0.6 100.0%
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.3 70.6 28.7 0.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 46.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.2 21.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.0% 100.0% 1.3 67.4 32.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.9% 100.0% 1.4 61.9 36.6 1.5