Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +19.4 #11
Expected Predictive Rating +23.3 #11
Pace 60.8 #356
Improvement +0.6 #146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #21 C+ B+ A+ D F
Defense #6 A+ B A+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #360 1.44 #4 -2.3 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #20 0.73 #204 +3.7 #33
Three Pointers 41% #183 1.05 #129 +0.8 #151
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #118 +2.3 #117
Freethrows 13.2 #339 79% #19 10.4 #307
Second Chance 39.0% #20 1.02 #219 0.40 #49
Turnovers 12.8% #11
Total Offense +9.0 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.05 #60 +3.4 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.59 #15 +1.7 #70
Three Pointers 44% #104 0.84 #21 +2.3 #100
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #17 +7.5 #15
Freethrows 18.0 #217 67% #18 12.0 #213
Second Chance 27.2% #72 0.98 #100 0.27 #57
Turnovers 23.3% #4
Total Defense +10.4 #6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #358 -0.3% #141
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.2% #51 -14.4% #9
Possession Length 17.8 #225 18.8 #352
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #108 0.07 #3
Improvement +0.9 #118 -0.3 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.6% 0.5%
#1 Seed 10.2% 13.4% 5.6%
Top 2 Seed 31.9% 39.4% 20.9%
Top 4 Seed 80.9% 87.6% 71.2%
Top 6 Seed 96.6% 98.5% 93.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.3 3.0 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.6% 97.7%
Conference Champion 15.7% 21.4% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round92.8% 94.5% 90.4%
Sweet Sixteen61.6% 64.7% 57.1%
Elite Eight31.0% 34.3% 26.2%
Final Four14.6% 16.5% 11.9%
Championship Game6.9% 7.8% 5.4%
National Champion2.8% 3.4% 1.9%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 59.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 6
Quad 27 - 116 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 320 Lehigh W 75 - 57 99%  +15  1 - 0 +5 -0 F B+ D +6 A+ B B
 Sat, Nov 8 175 Towson W 65 - 48 98%  +9  2 - 0 +13 -3 C C F +17 B+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 124 Oakland W 78 - 45 96%  +21  3 - 0 +32 +10 C- B+ A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 33 Auburn W 73 - 72 70%  +3  4 - 0 +15 +7 C+ D+ A+ +8 A+ A D
 Thu, Nov 20 348 Rider W 91 - 45 100%  +25  5 - 0 +31 +17 A+ F A- +16 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 69 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 85%  +2  6 - 0 +12 +5 C- A+ A- +7 B- A+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 16 Tennessee L 73 - 76 57%  +2  6 - 1 +15 +21 A+ B A+ -7 A C D-
 Wed, Nov 26 59 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 83%  +12  7 - 1 +19 +11 F A+ A+ +10 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 111 Florida St. W 82 - 67 91%  +10  8 - 1 +19 +11 A+ F A- +8 A D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 342 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100%  +22  9 - 1 +27 +7 D- A+ C- +24 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 236 New Orleans W 99 - 57 98%  +25  10 - 1 +35 +24 A+ D- A+ +12 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 19 Arkansas W 94 - 85 61%  +10  11 - 1 +25 +22 A+ A+ A+ +3 B- C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 123 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 96%  +5  12 - 1 +8 +8 C C A+ +2 F B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 58 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 75%  -1  13 - 1 1 - 0 +19 +12 C A+ A+ +8 C+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 6 17 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 71%  -0  14 - 1 2 - 0 +18 +5 D A- A+ +13 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 32 @Baylor W 73 - 71 59% 
 Tue, Jan 13 67 West Virginia W 71 - 57 90% 
 Sun, Jan 18 88 Arizona St. W 80 - 64 93% 
 Sat, Jan 24 17 @Texas Tech L 69 - 70 50% 
 Wed, Jan 28 44 @TCU W 69 - 64 67% 
 Sat, Jan 31 58 Cincinnati W 72 - 59 89% 
 Wed, Feb 4 50 Central Florida W 79 - 67 86% 
 Sat, Feb 7 8 @BYU L 69 - 73 36% 
 Tue, Feb 10 117 @Utah W 78 - 65 89% 
 Sat, Feb 14 74 Kansas St. W 82 - 67 91% 
 Mon, Feb 16 3 @Iowa St. L 65 - 72 27% 
 Sat, Feb 21 2 Arizona L 71 - 72 45% 
 Mon, Feb 23 18 @Kansas L 67 - 68 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 77 Colorado W 80 - 65 91% 
 Wed, Mar 4 32 Baylor W 76 - 68 78% 
 Sat, Mar 7 54 @Oklahoma St. W 79 - 72 72% 
Totals 25 - 6 13 - 5 +19 +9 C+ B+ A+ +10 A+ B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.1 6.0 2.4 0.4 15.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.7 8.0 7.5 1.9 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.8 9.8 8.4 1.9 0.0 24.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.1 8.3 6.3 1.1 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.0 0.3 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.5 5.8 10.5 16.1 19.5 19.3 14.5 7.8 2.5 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 97.8% 2.4    2.0 0.4
16-2 76.1% 6.0    3.2 2.4 0.4
15-3 35.4% 5.1    1.5 2.4 1.1 0.1
14-4 8.8% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 7.4 5.8 2.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.5% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.8% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 1.8 2.8 3.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 14.5% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 2.2 3.3 6.2 4.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.3% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.7 1.8 6.1 8.0 3.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 19.5% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 3.2 0.6 3.3 8.1 5.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.1% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 3.9 0.2 0.9 4.8 6.5 3.1 0.7 0.1 100.0%
11-7 10.5% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 4.6 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.4 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.8% 99.9% 3.0% 96.9% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 2.5% 99.8% 1.6% 98.2% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
8-10 0.9% 98.3% 1.7% 96.5% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.2%
7-11 0.2% 90.7% 2.3% 88.4% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.5%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 11.8% 88.1% 3.3 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.0 29.0