IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+21.6	#6
Expected Predictive Rating	+22.7	#9

Pace	61.4	#348
Improvement	+3.6	#42

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#9	B-	B+	A	C-	F
Defense	#9	A-	B	A+	C	B-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	27%	#362	1.45	#3	-2.6	#271
2 Pt. Jumpers	31%	#22	0.80	#106	+4.5	#19
Three Pointers	42%	#153	1.08	#85	+2.0	#108
1st FG Attempt			1.10	#70	+3.9	#70
Freethrows	0.26	#308	79%	#9	0.21	#231
Second Chance	39.3%	#11	1.02	#183	0.40	#39
Turnovers					11.8%	#2
Total Offense					+11.3	#9

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	33%	#321	1.02	#35	+5.5	#30
2 Pt. Jumpers	23%	#99	0.56	#2	+1.4	#74
Three Pointers	44%	#81	0.92	#55	+0.4	#162
1st FG Attempt			0.87	#12	+7.4	#12
Freethrows	0.31	#222	69%	#32	0.22	#175
Second Chance	29.0%	#115	0.91	#40	0.26	#58
Turnovers					23.9%	#1
Total Defense					+10.3	#9

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-4.2%	#356	-1.3%	#68
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	12.3%	#24	-13.3%	#10
Possession Length	17.4	#191	18.9	#351
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.18	#145	0.07	#4
Improvement	+4.2	#15	-0.7	#226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	2.6%	2.8%	1.0%
#1 Seed	20.4%	21.8%	10.1%
Top 2 Seed	56.1%	58.4%	38.2%
Top 4 Seed	94.8%	95.7%	88.2%
Top 6 Seed	99.8%	99.9%	98.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	2.5	2.4	3.0

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%
Conference Champion	27.2%	29.5%	9.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	97.7%	97.9%	96.6%
Sweet Sixteen	72.3%	72.7%	68.9%
Elite Eight	42.9%	43.9%	35.0%
Final Four	23.1%	23.8%	17.9%
Championship Game	12.1%	12.5%	9.4%
National Champion	6.3%	6.4%	5.1%

Next Game: Central Florida (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

2 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 4	4 - 4
Quad 1b	5 - 1	9 - 5
Quad 2	8 - 0	17 - 5
Quad 3	5 - 0	23 - 6
Quad 4	5 - 0	28 - 6

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	301 Lehigh	W	75 - 57	99%	+15	1 - 0		+7	+0	D-	C+	D	+7	A	C+	B+
Sat, Nov 8	155 Towson	W	65 - 48	98%	+9	2 - 0		+14	-2	C-	C+	D	+17	B	B+	A+
Wed, Nov 12	129 Oakland	W	78 - 45	97%	+21	3 - 0		+32	+11	C-	B+	A+	+25	A+	A+	A+
Sun, Nov 16	28 Auburn	W	73 - 72	72%	+3	4 - 0		+17	+9	C	C	A	+8	A+	B+	D+
Thu, Nov 20	352 Rider	W	91 - 45	100%	+25	5 - 0		+30	+14	A+	F+	B	+18	A	A-	A+
Mon, Nov 24	68 Syracuse	W	78 - 74 OT	89%	+2	6 - 0		+12	+3	D+	A-	B+	+9	B	B	B-
Tue, Nov 25	18 Tennessee	L	73 - 76	65%	+2	6 - 1		+15	+21	A+	B	B+	-7	A-	D+	D-
Wed, Nov 26	81 Notre Dame	W	66 - 56	91%	+12	7 - 1		+17	+9	F	A+	A+	+10	A+	B-	D
Sat, Dec 6	101 Florida St.	W	82 - 67	93%	+10	8 - 1		+20	+12	A+	D	B-	+8	A	D-	A+
Wed, Dec 10	337 Jackson St.	W	80 - 38	100%	+22	9 - 1		+28	+7	D+	A+	C-	+24	B+	A+	A+
Sat, Dec 13	218 New Orleans	W	99 - 57	99%	+25	10 - 1		+36	+24	A+	D	A+	+13	A+	F	A+
Sat, Dec 20	22 Arkansas	W	94 - 85	69%	+10	11 - 1		+25	+22	A+	A-	A+	+3	B	C	A-
Mon, Dec 29	154 Middle Tennessee	W	69 - 60	98%	+5	12 - 1		+6	+8	C	B-	A+	-1	F	B-	A+
Sat, Jan 3	52 @Cincinnati	W	67 - 60	79%	-1	13 - 1	1 - 0	+20	+12	C	A+	A+	+8	C+	A-	A+
Tue, Jan 6	17 Texas Tech	W	69 - 65	75%	-0	14 - 1	2 - 0	+19	+5	D+	B+	A+	+14	A+	B	A+
Sat, Jan 10	47 @Baylor	W	77 - 55	75%	+11	15 - 1	3 - 0	+37	+20	C	A-	A+	+20	A+	A	A+
Tue, Jan 13	57 West Virginia	W	77 - 48	91%	+16	16 - 1	4 - 0	+35	+21	C+	A+	A+	+19	A-	A+	A+
Sun, Jan 18	77 Arizona St.	W	103 - 73	93%	+22	17 - 1	5 - 0	+35	+30	A+	A+	A+	+5	A+	F	A+
Sat, Jan 24	17 @Texas Tech	L	86 - 90	54%	-1	17 - 2	5 - 1	+17	+28	A+	B	A+	-11	A-	F	C+
Wed, Jan 28	51 @TCU	W	79 - 70	78%	+7	18 - 2	6 - 1	+22	+14	A	F	A+	+8	C	A+	B-
Sat, Jan 31	52 Cincinnati	W	76 - 54	90%	+13	19 - 2	7 - 1	+29	+26	A	B	A+	+7	C+	B-	A+
Wed, Feb 4	44 Central Florida	W	81 - 68	89%
Sat, Feb 7	15 @BYU	W	75 - 74	50%
Tue, Feb 10	104 @Utah	W	81 - 67	91%
Sat, Feb 14	92 Kansas St.	W	84 - 65	96%
Mon, Feb 16	4 @Iowa St.	L	69 - 73	37%
Sat, Feb 21	2 Arizona	W	74 - 73	51%
Mon, Feb 23	14 @Kansas	W	70 - 69	50%
Sat, Feb 28	72 Colorado	W	82 - 65	94%
Wed, Mar 4	47 Baylor	W	79 - 66	89%
Sat, Mar 7	56 @Oklahoma St.	W	81 - 72	80%
Totals						26 - 5	14 - 4	+22	+11	B-	B+	A	+10	A-	B	A+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st														0.0	2.0	10.0	11.8	3.5		27.2	1st
2nd													0.1	3.4	18.4	15.6	3.3			40.8	2nd
3rd												0.0	1.3	9.4	7.4	0.4				18.5	3rd
4th											0.0	0.3	3.6	4.2	0.2					8.3	4th
5th											0.0	0.8	2.2	0.3						3.3	5th
6th											0.1	0.8	0.5							1.4	6th
7th										0.0	0.2	0.2	0.1							0.4	7th
8th										0.0	0.0									0.1	8th
9th									0.0											0.0	9th
10th									0.0											0.0	10th
11th																					11th
12th																					12th
13th																					13th
14th																					14th
15th																					15th
16th																					16th

Total									0.0	0.0	0.4	2.1	7.7	17.3	28.0	26.0	15.1	3.5			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	3.5	2.9	0.6
16-2	78.1%	11.8	6.5	5.1	0.1
15-3	38.4%	10.0	2.5	5.5	1.9	0.0
14-4	7.3%	2.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.1
13-5	0.0%	0.0				0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	27.2%	27.2	12.0	11.6	3.0	0.6	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	3.5%	100.0%	35.0%	65.0%	1.3	2.4	1.0	0.1															100.0%
16-2	15.1%	100.0%	29.5%	70.5%	1.7	6.6	6.9	1.5	0.1														100.0%
15-3	26.0%	100.0%	24.5%	75.5%	2.0	6.7	12.6	5.7	0.9	0.1													100.0%
14-4	28.0%	100.0%	19.6%	80.4%	2.5	3.7	10.7	9.6	3.6	0.5	0.0												100.0%
13-5	17.3%	100.0%	13.7%	86.3%	3.1	0.8	3.9	6.2	5.0	1.3	0.1	0.0											100.0%
12-6	7.7%	100.0%	10.1%	89.9%	3.8	0.1	0.6	2.1	3.0	1.5	0.3	0.1											100.0%
11-7	2.1%	100.0%	5.5%	94.5%	4.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1											100.0%
10-8	0.4%	100.0%	2.7%	97.3%	5.4		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0											100.0%
9-9	0.0%									0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
8-10	0.0%										0.0	0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	100.0%	20.8%	79.2%	2.5																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3
Win Out	1.2%	100.0%	1.2	84.8	15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.8%	100.0%	1.4	67.5	29.5	3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.0%	100.0%	1.5	57.0	39.5	3.5