Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#51
Pace59.2#357
Improvement-0.4#207

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#14
First Shot+4.6#64
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#13
Layup/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#81
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-1.1#269

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#3
First Shot+11.4#1
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#226
Layups/Dunks+12.0#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#283
Freethrows-0.2#207
Improvement+0.7#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.3% 1.7%
#1 Seed 21.3% 23.0% 10.7%
Top 2 Seed 43.6% 46.6% 26.1%
Top 4 Seed 74.3% 77.1% 57.2%
Top 6 Seed 88.9% 90.7% 78.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.7% 96.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.7% 98.2% 95.1%
Average Seed 3.3 3.2 4.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.4% 93.4%
Conference Champion 34.4% 37.3% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.8%
First Round98.0% 98.5% 95.4%
Second Round90.1% 91.2% 83.4%
Sweet Sixteen63.6% 65.2% 54.3%
Elite Eight39.1% 40.5% 30.4%
Final Four22.7% 23.8% 16.4%
Championship Game12.5% 13.2% 8.4%
National Champion6.6% 7.0% 4.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 8
Quad 27 - 116 - 9
Quad 34 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +45.8 +25.6 +22.1
  Nov 09, 2024 1   Auburn L 69-74 36%     1 - 1 +18.4 +12.5 +5.3
  Nov 13, 2024 286   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +36.3 +11.1 +24.1
  Nov 22, 2024 149   Hofstra W 80-44 97%     3 - 1 +33.3 +17.6 +19.7
  Nov 26, 2024 9   Alabama L 80-85 OT 57%     3 - 2 +12.9 +7.3 +5.9
  Nov 27, 2024 83   Notre Dame W 65-54 88%     4 - 2 +18.1 +5.0 +14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 38   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 77%     4 - 3 +8.8 +11.9 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 68   Butler W 79-51 91%     5 - 3 +32.9 +18.9 +18.1
  Dec 10, 2024 119   Troy W 62-42 96%     6 - 3 +19.8 +7.0 +18.2
  Dec 18, 2024 208   Toledo W 78-49 98%     7 - 3 +23.7 -2.3 +25.4
  Dec 21, 2024 189   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 87-51 98%     8 - 3 +31.5 +26.8 +10.9
  Dec 30, 2024 96   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-63 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 42   BYU W 74-63 86%    
  Jan 06, 2025 66   TCU W 71-56 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 84   @ Kansas St. W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 39   West Virginia W 70-59 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 71-62 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 65   Utah W 76-61 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   @ Kansas L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 29, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 18   Texas Tech W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 04, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 77-60 94%    
  Feb 08, 2025 76   @ Colorado W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 10, 2025 12   Baylor W 71-64 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 11   @ Arizona W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   Iowa St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 24, 2025 18   @ Texas Tech W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 68-59 78%    
  Mar 03, 2025 8   Kansas W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   @ Baylor W 68-67 52%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.9 10.5 7.8 3.7 0.9 34.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.9 6.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.1 4.3 1.0 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.5 7.8 11.2 14.1 15.8 15.6 13.1 8.1 3.7 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.7% 3.7    3.6 0.1
18-2 95.7% 7.8    6.8 1.0 0.0
17-3 80.3% 10.5    7.2 3.0 0.4 0.0
16-4 50.7% 7.9    3.5 3.4 0.9 0.1
15-5 19.1% 3.0    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 34.4% 34.4 22.7 8.9 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.7% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.2 2.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.1% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.4 5.3 2.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.1% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.7 6.0 5.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.6% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.1 4.1 6.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.8% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 2.8 1.6 4.5 5.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.1% 100.0% 19.9% 80.0% 3.7 0.5 1.8 4.1 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.2% 99.9% 14.4% 85.5% 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 7.8% 99.6% 9.5% 90.1% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 4.5% 97.5% 6.8% 90.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.3%
10-10 2.8% 89.2% 6.1% 83.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 88.5%
9-11 1.4% 67.1% 4.1% 63.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 65.7%
8-12 0.6% 24.9% 3.0% 21.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 22.6%
7-13 0.3% 7.0% 3.9% 3.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 24.1% 74.2% 3.3 21.3 22.4 17.3 13.3 8.8 5.8 4.0 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.7 97.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 89.3 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 89.1 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5