Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.9 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #71
Pace 80.2 #11
Improvement -3.4 #334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #69 A B+ C C B+
Defense #90 B D B- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #45 1.32 #39 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #306 0.62 #331 -3.0 #318
Three Pointers 41% #180 1.18 #19 +3.4 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #23 +7.6 #18
Freethrows 17.1 #208 74% #137 12.7 #176
Second Chance 35.6% #51 1.10 #114 0.39 #57
Turnovers 16.3% #157
Total Offense +4.9 #69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.10 #108 +1.0 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #186 0.64 #47 +1.4 #87
Three Pointers 41% #188 0.93 #83 +1.6 #124
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #66 +4.1 #61
Freethrows 16.1 #124 70% #87 11.3 #271
Second Chance 31.7% #223 1.17 #308 0.37 #294
Turnovers 18.4% #85
Total Defense +3.0 #90

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #40 0.1% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.5% #33 -7.7% #59
Possession Length 14.8 #16 17.8 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #10 0.15 #107
Improvement -2.9 #334 -0.5 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.3% 15.8% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.2% 15.8% 5.9%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 39.2% 54.0% 27.6%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 19.4% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.7% 6.4% 21.1%
First Four3.8% 5.5% 2.5%
First Round8.2% 12.9% 4.5%
Second Round2.7% 4.4% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 12
Quad 24 - 48 - 15
Quad 32 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 284 UNC Greensboro W 93 - 64 94%  +7  1 - 0 +19 +1 A- A- F +15 A+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 280 Bellarmine W 98 - 71 94%  +11  2 - 0 +17 +15 A+ A+ F +2 A+ F C
 Thu, Nov 13 84 California W 99 - 96 65%  +14  3 - 0 +7 +18 A+ A+ F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 81 Tulsa W 84 - 83 64%  +3  4 - 0 +5 +4 C- A+ A +1 A+ C D
 Thu, Nov 20 55 Mississippi St. W 98 - 77 44%  +8  5 - 0 +31 +23 A+ D+ A+ +6 B A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 23 Nebraska L 85 - 86 23%  -4  5 - 1 +15 +14 A+ A+ B +0 D D- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 25 @Indiana L 69 - 86 16%  -13  5 - 2 +2 -1 A+ F F +4 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 132 Bowling Green L 66 - 82 81%  -9  5 - 3 -17 -1 F A+ A+ -18 D+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 53 Seton Hall L 67 - 78 53%  -8  5 - 4 -4 -5 C- D B +2 A+ F C+
 Mon, Dec 8 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 49 100%  +35  6 - 4 +32 +16 A+ A F +11 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 37 @Creighton W 83 - 76 21%  +8  7 - 4 +23 +22 A A+ A+ +2 A C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 290 South Dakota W 106 - 76 94%  +22  8 - 4 +20 +18 A+ B+ C -0 B+ C D-
 Sun, Dec 28 356 Louisiana Monroe W 94 - 85 98%  +6  9 - 4 -8 +1 C F D+ -9 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 8 BYU L 73 - 83 19%  -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 +7 +0 A- F A- +8 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 2 @Arizona L 76 - 101 5%  -14  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +6 D B A+ -0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 88 @Arizona St. L 84 - 86 44% 
 Wed, Jan 14 50 Central Florida W 86 - 85 50% 
 Sat, Jan 17 54 @Oklahoma St. L 87 - 92 32% 
 Tue, Jan 20 117 Utah W 88 - 80 76% 
 Sat, Jan 24 18 Kansas L 77 - 83 30% 
 Tue, Jan 27 67 @West Virginia L 72 - 76 36% 
 Sun, Feb 1 3 Iowa St. L 75 - 87 13% 
 Sat, Feb 7 44 @TCU L 75 - 82 27% 
 Wed, Feb 11 58 Cincinnati W 78 - 76 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 11 @Houston L 67 - 82 9% 
 Tue, Feb 17 32 Baylor L 83 - 86 39% 
 Sat, Feb 21 17 @Texas Tech L 76 - 88 14% 
 Wed, Feb 25 77 @Colorado L 84 - 87 40% 
 Sat, Feb 28 44 TCU L 78 - 79 47% 
 Tue, Mar 3 67 West Virginia W 75 - 73 58% 
 Sat, Mar 7 18 @Kansas L 74 - 86 14% 
Totals 15 - 16 6 - 12 +8 +5 A B+ C +3 B D B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.4 0.9 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.5 3.2 2.1 0.2 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 4.2 0.6 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.1 0.1 8.8 10th
11th 0.4 4.8 4.4 0.4 9.9 11th
12th 0.2 3.1 6.8 1.5 0.0 11.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.7 7.3 3.5 0.1 12.7 13th
14th 0.0 1.3 5.7 5.5 0.6 13.1 14th
15th 0.2 1.4 4.8 5.2 1.2 0.1 12.8 15th
16th 0.2 1.2 2.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 7.5 16th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.2 8.8 13.5 17.4 17.1 14.4 11.0 6.5 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 12.5% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.4% 95.2% 2.4% 92.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1%
11-7 1.5% 93.1% 93.1% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 93.1%
10-8 3.5% 78.4% 0.1% 78.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.8 78.4%
9-9 6.5% 52.0% 0.1% 51.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.0 3.1 51.9%
8-10 11.0% 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.1 9.1 17.6%
7-11 14.4% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 14.1 2.0%
6-12 17.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.0%
5-13 17.4% 17.4
4-14 13.5% 13.5
3-15 8.8% 8.8
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 10.3% 0.0% 10.2% 9.7 89.7 10.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%