Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#22
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#17
Pace76.2#26
Improvement-5.3#345

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#3
First Shot+13.2#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#235
Layup/Dunks+3.9#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#46
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement-0.5#210

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#89
First Shot+1.1#143
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#33
Layups/Dunks+4.6#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#54
Freethrows+1.3#95
Improvement-4.8#356
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.1% 3.4% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 11.5% 18.1% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 51.2% 66.6% 39.5%
Top 6 Seed 82.0% 92.5% 74.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.9% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.9% 98.4%
Average Seed 4.7 4.0 5.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 69.6% 84.8% 58.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.2% 2.1%
First Round98.5% 99.8% 97.5%
Second Round79.3% 86.0% 74.2%
Sweet Sixteen41.8% 48.3% 36.9%
Elite Eight16.7% 20.6% 13.8%
Final Four6.9% 8.8% 5.4%
Championship Game2.6% 3.4% 1.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.9%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 88 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 210 - 10
Quad 22 - 112 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 196   Wright St. W 103-62 96%     1 - 0 +36.9 +19.4 +15.1
  Nov 09, 2024 251   Bucknell W 100-72 97%     2 - 0 +20.3 +14.2 +2.9
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 24%     3 - 0 +28.0 +11.3 +16.5
  Nov 19, 2024 110   Lipscomb W 97-68 91%     4 - 0 +30.0 +22.5 +7.0
  Nov 22, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 108-59 98%     5 - 0 +39.8 +17.2 +15.6
  Nov 26, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 87-68 92%     6 - 0 +19.4 +8.2 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +20.0 +13.8 +2.9
  Dec 03, 2024 32   @ Clemson L 66-70 47%     7 - 1 +12.4 +2.8 +9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 42%     8 - 1 +18.7 +18.0 +0.7
  Dec 11, 2024 239   Colgate W 78-67 97%     9 - 1 +3.9 +3.9 +0.6
  Dec 14, 2024 27   Louisville W 93-85 64%     10 - 1 +19.9 +21.3 -1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 25   Ohio St. L 65-85 54%     10 - 2 -5.4 +1.9 -8.0
  Dec 31, 2024 214   Brown W 88-54 96%     11 - 2 +28.6 +15.3 +14.7
  Jan 04, 2025 4   Florida W 106-100 44%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +23.4 +38.4 -15.1
  Jan 07, 2025 37   @ Georgia L 69-82 55%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +1.5 +1.0 +1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 35   @ Mississippi St. W 95-90 50%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +20.7 +23.3 -2.9
  Jan 14, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 81-69 59%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +25.5 +13.5 +11.7
  Jan 18, 2025 5   Alabama L 97-102 44%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +12.2 +19.8 -7.1
  Jan 25, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt L 69-74 63%     14 - 5 3 - 3 +7.3 +4.5 +2.5
  Jan 28, 2025 6   @ Tennessee W 78-73 27%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +27.1 +23.6 +3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 43   Arkansas L 79-89 74%     15 - 6 4 - 4 -0.8 +9.1 -9.6
  Feb 04, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 80-81 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 79   South Carolina W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 11, 2025 6   Tennessee L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 30   @ Texas L 80-81 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 89-81 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 90-96 25%    
  Feb 26, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma W 83-82 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 83-88 34%    
  Mar 04, 2025 71   LSU W 87-77 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 23   @ Missouri L 82-84 41%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.0 0.8 5.0 3rd
4th 0.7 4.4 2.1 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 5.8 0.5 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 8.3 2.9 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.3 6.8 7.4 0.4 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 2.5 9.8 2.3 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.6 7.0 5.0 0.2 12.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 6.1 0.8 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.7 1.5 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.2 3.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 3.0 9.1 17.7 23.8 22.5 14.8 6.5 1.9 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 27.8% 0.1    0.1
13-5 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 0.1 0.1
13-5 1.9% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 1.8 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.5% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 2.4 0.7 3.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.8% 100.0% 6.4% 93.6% 3.0 0.5 3.3 6.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
10-8 22.5% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 3.8 0.1 1.6 7.0 8.0 4.6 1.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 23.8% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 4.7 0.1 0.4 2.9 6.5 8.6 4.4 0.9 0.1 100.0%
8-10 17.7% 99.9% 1.9% 98.1% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 4.2 5.8 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
7-11 9.1% 98.5% 0.9% 97.6% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 98.4%
6-12 3.0% 86.0% 1.3% 84.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.4 85.9%
5-13 0.5% 44.2% 44.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 44.2%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 3.6% 95.5% 4.7 2.1 9.4 19.9 19.8 18.5 12.4 6.6 4.0 3.0 2.3 1.2 0.1 0.9 99.0%