Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.8 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +16.4 #29
Pace 69.4 #165
Improvement -1.1 #234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 B- B+ B B- C+
Defense #21 B+ A- C+ C+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #125 1.32 #32 +4.6 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.70 #269 -1.3 #248
Three Pointers 41% #190 1.06 #112 +0.7 #148
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #67 +4.0 #67
Freethrows 0.34 #80 73% #151 0.25 #82
Second Chance 35.5% #47 1.17 #35 0.42 #28
Turnovers 14.4% #48
Total Offense +8.1 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.05 #51 +4.9 #41
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #47 0.71 #98 -1.4 #289
Three Pointers 41% #177 0.87 #26 +2.8 #71
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #25 +6.4 #27
Freethrows 0.28 #109 73% #221 0.20 #123
Second Chance 26.8% #56 0.83 #9 0.22 #12
Turnovers 17.3% #145
Total Defense +7.7 #21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #131 -2.0% #32
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.0% #71 -10.7% #29
Possession Length 15.4 #33 19.0 #357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.31 #4 0.09 #11
Improvement -0.7 #220 -0.3 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 15.6% 17.3% 8.5%
Top 6 Seed 56.0% 59.7% 40.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.7% 97.5% 93.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.5% 97.4% 92.7%
Average Seed 6.3 6.1 7.0
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 95.2% 80.7%
Conference Champion 5.2% 6.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.8% 2.2% 5.2%
First Round95.6% 96.7% 90.9%
Second Round67.2% 69.3% 58.4%
Sweet Sixteen26.0% 27.2% 21.3%
Elite Eight9.0% 9.4% 7.3%
Final Four3.0% 3.3% 1.8%
Championship Game0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 114 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 249 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 98% +15  1 - 0 +18 +1 C F B+ +17 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 160 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 95% +31  2 - 0 +45 +27 A+ D- A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 16 @Louisville L 88 - 96 31% -8  2 - 1 +13 +16 A A+ C -3 A- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 321 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  3 - 1 +33 +27 A+ A+ C +8 B A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 10 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 34% -11  3 - 2 +3 +5 C- C+ A+ -2 D A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 318 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  4 - 2 +29 +5 C C B +23 A+ A- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 333 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  5 - 2 +36 +21 A+ A+ B- +14 A+ A- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 29 North Carolina L 64 - 67 64% +2  5 - 3 +9 +1 C D+ C+ +8 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 11 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 36% -21  5 - 4 -15 -4 F A A -11 F+ A- C-
 Tue, Dec 9 341 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ B A- +0 C B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 30 Indiana W 72 - 60 65% -0  7 - 4 +24 +7 D- A A+ +18 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 19 St. John's W 78 - 66 43% +1  8 - 4 +30 +14 B- A+ D+ +16 A+ B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 23 305 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 99% +8  9 - 4 +3 +20 A+ A C -16 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 20 @Alabama L 74 - 89 33% -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +5 +6 C A D+ -0 C+ B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Missouri L 68 - 73 80% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 -1 C C- D+ +3 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 73 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 85% +4  10 - 6 1 - 2 +29 +24 A+ A+ C+ +5 C+ B- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 49 @LSU W 75 - 74 56% -8  11 - 6 2 - 2 +15 +11 C+ B+ B +4 D+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 18 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 32% -7  12 - 6 3 - 2 +23 +26 A A+ A -4 F A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 21 31 Texas W 85 - 80 66% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +17 +15 B- B+ A- +2 A+ C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 59 Mississippi W 72 - 63 81% +3  14 - 6 5 - 2 +15 +6 F A+ C+ +10 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Jan 27 12 @Vanderbilt L 55 - 80 29% -18  14 - 7 5 - 3 -3 -8 F C+ D+ +5 A B+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 22 @Arkansas W 85 - 77 36% +5  15 - 7 6 - 3 +27 +23 A+ C A+ +5 B- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 55 Oklahoma W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 18 Tennessee W 73 - 72 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 5 @Florida L 72 - 81 21%
 Tue, Feb 17 34 Georgia W 85 - 80 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 28 @Auburn L 76 - 79 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 91 @South Carolina W 77 - 70 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 12 Vanderbilt W 79 - 78 51%
 Tue, Mar 3 27 @Texas A&M L 78 - 81 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 5 Florida L 75 - 78 40%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +16 +8 B- B+ B +8 B+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.2 2.5 0.3 5.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 4.5 0.3 7.3 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.2 1.7 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.2 5.4 5.7 0.3 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.9 10.2 1.7 13.8 5th
6th 0.4 6.9 7.1 0.1 14.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 9.3 1.3 13.0 7th
8th 0.4 6.0 4.5 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.2 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.9 14.6 23.5 25.1 17.5 8.6 2.8 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-4 87.2% 2.5    1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.9% 2.2    0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.3% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 3.4 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.6% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 2.6 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-6 17.5% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 5.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 6.8 4.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
11-7 25.1% 99.9% 4.9% 95.0% 5.9 0.3 2.0 6.7 8.9 5.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 23.5% 99.5% 3.2% 96.3% 6.8 0.1 0.3 2.4 6.0 8.5 4.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 99.5%
9-9 14.6% 96.2% 2.3% 93.9% 8.3 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.0 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.6 96.1%
8-10 5.9% 76.8% 1.2% 75.6% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 0.0 1.4 76.5%
7-11 1.5% 27.9% 0.7% 27.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 27.4%
6-12 0.2% 9.8% 9.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 9.8%
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.7% 5.6% 91.1% 6.3 3.3 96.5%