Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#16
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#12
Pace78.2#15
Improvement-6.5#364

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#8
First Shot+11.1#3
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#217
Layup/Dunks+3.8#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#66
Freethrows+2.5#51
Improvement-2.7#341

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#53
First Shot+3.1#87
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#56
Layups/Dunks+5.2#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#37
Freethrows+1.6#67
Improvement-3.8#359
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.3%
#1 Seed 8.1% 8.3% 2.7%
Top 2 Seed 23.4% 23.9% 9.5%
Top 4 Seed 56.9% 57.8% 35.2%
Top 6 Seed 75.9% 76.7% 55.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.7% 94.2% 82.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 93.9% 82.3%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 5.6
.500 or above 97.4% 97.8% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 67.4% 51.6%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.3% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.1% 4.7%
First Four3.8% 3.7% 6.8%
First Round92.0% 92.5% 79.2%
Second Round75.4% 76.1% 58.9%
Sweet Sixteen42.7% 43.3% 28.6%
Elite Eight19.6% 20.0% 10.5%
Final Four8.6% 8.8% 4.4%
Championship Game3.6% 3.7% 1.7%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 0.6%

Next Game: Brown (Home) - 96.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 87 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 210 - 10
Quad 24 - 113 - 11
Quad 33 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 168   Wright St. W 103-62 95%     1 - 0 +37.6 +19.1 +16.1
  Nov 09, 2024 266   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +19.4 +15.0 +1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 27%     3 - 0 +26.7 +11.5 +15.0
  Nov 19, 2024 109   Lipscomb W 97-68 90%     4 - 0 +30.2 +23.6 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 108-59 98%     5 - 0 +37.8 +18.0 +12.9
  Nov 26, 2024 108   Western Kentucky W 87-68 90%     6 - 0 +20.2 +8.2 +10.1
  Nov 29, 2024 272   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +20.1 +16.4 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Clemson L 66-70 52%     7 - 1 +11.0 +3.0 +7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 4   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 34%     8 - 1 +20.9 +19.7 +1.2
  Dec 11, 2024 241   Colgate W 78-67 97%     9 - 1 +3.6 +5.0 -0.9
  Dec 14, 2024 45   Louisville W 93-85 76%     10 - 1 +16.1 +19.1 -3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 29   Ohio St. L 65-85 59%     10 - 2 -6.7 +0.3 -7.7
  Dec 31, 2024 174   Brown W 87-68 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 7   Florida L 85-86 47%    
  Jan 07, 2025 36   @ Georgia W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 24   @ Mississippi St. L 80-82 43%    
  Jan 14, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 79-75 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 9   Alabama W 91-90 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 50   @ Vanderbilt W 86-84 57%    
  Jan 28, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 73-81 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 31   Arkansas W 86-80 70%    
  Feb 04, 2025 28   @ Mississippi L 80-81 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 62   South Carolina W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 3   Tennessee L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 33   @ Texas L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 89-81 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 88-93 32%    
  Feb 26, 2025 35   @ Oklahoma W 82-81 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 83-88 32%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   LSU W 86-77 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 54   @ Missouri W 84-81 59%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 3.0 2.2 0.6 0.1 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.4 3.8 4.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.7 3.2 0.3 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.4 1.9 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 3.1 0.3 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 6.0 9.3 12.2 14.1 14.7 13.3 10.6 7.2 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 87.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 67.5% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.4% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 1.6 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 2.0 2.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.6% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 2.4 1.3 4.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 100.0%
11-7 13.3% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 3.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.7% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 3.8 0.2 1.3 4.6 5.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 14.1% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.2 4.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 12.2% 99.8% 1.2% 98.5% 6.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.8%
7-11 9.3% 97.2% 0.7% 96.5% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 97.2%
6-12 6.0% 80.2% 0.4% 79.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 0.1 1.2 80.1%
5-13 3.4% 28.3% 0.2% 28.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 28.2%
4-14 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.1%
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 93.7% 4.4% 89.3% 4.4 8.1 15.3 18.3 15.2 11.5 7.5 5.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 93.4%