Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.9 #27
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #61
Pace 71.2 #123
Improvement -3.1 #328

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #47 B+ B+ B+ C B
Defense #21 A+ A- C C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.35 #25 +6.0 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #258 0.72 #224 -1.8 #267
Three Pointers 41% #170 1.05 #135 +0.9 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #52 +5.2 #52
Freethrows 17.3 #195 75% #115 12.9 #160
Second Chance 34.5% #78 1.17 #57 0.40 #43
Turnovers 14.2% #46
Total Offense +7.0 #47

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.08 #91 +6.2 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #21 0.68 #95 -1.9 #308
Three Pointers 42% #140 0.83 #16 +3.1 #71
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #15 +7.5 #17
Freethrows 15.8 #112 75% #269 11.8 #226
Second Chance 25.3% #26 0.93 #53 0.24 #24
Turnovers 16.8% #172
Total Defense +7.9 #21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #80 -3.2% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #59 -11.8% #27
Possession Length 15.0 #24 18.9 #356
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 #3 0.09 #9
Improvement -2.9 #337 -0.2 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.0% 8.3% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 22.9% 25.9% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.3% 67.2% 44.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.8% 65.7% 43.4%
Average Seed 7.4 7.3 8.1
.500 or above 79.3% 84.1% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 45.6% 51.2% 25.5%
Conference Champion 1.3% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 3.4% 11.5%
First Four8.8% 8.7% 9.3%
First Round58.8% 63.7% 41.3%
Second Round38.9% 42.4% 26.0%
Sweet Sixteen14.9% 16.5% 9.1%
Elite Eight5.2% 5.8% 3.2%
Final Four1.8% 2.0% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 12
Quad 24 - 210 - 14
Quad 31 - 011 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 215 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 96%  +15  1 - 0 +20 +2 C F A +18 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 7 188 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 96%  +31  2 - 0 +43 +26 A+ D A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 15 @Louisville L 88 - 96 29%  -8  2 - 1 +13 +15 A+ A+ C -2 A A F
 Fri, Nov 14 309 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 98%  +27  3 - 1 +34 +27 A+ A+ D+ +9 A A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 14 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 38%  -11  3 - 2 +1 +4 C- C A+ -3 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 336 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99%  +26  4 - 2 +28 +4 D+ C- B +23 A+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 313 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99%  +18  5 - 2 +38 +21 A+ A+ B +15 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 26 North Carolina L 64 - 67 61%  +2  5 - 3 +9 +3 B- C- C +6 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 10 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 30%  -21  5 - 4 -15 -6 F A+ A+ -9 D- B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 9 347 NC Central W 103 - 67 99%  +19  6 - 4 +21 +22 A+ B A+ -2 D+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 25 Indiana W 72 - 60 59%  -0  7 - 4 +25 +8 D- A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 21 St. John's W 78 - 66 45%  +3  8 - 4 +28 +14 A- A+ D+ +14 A+ A- B+
 Tue, Dec 23 280 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98%  +8  9 - 4 +4 +22 A+ A+ C -17 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 13 @Alabama L 74 - 89 27%  -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 +6 C- A+ C- +1 C+ A- B
 Wed, Jan 7 51 Missouri L 68 - 73 76%  +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +3 -1 C D+ D+ +4 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 55 Mississippi St. W 79 - 71 78% 
 Wed, Jan 14 42 @LSU L 76 - 77 50% 
 Sat, Jan 17 16 @Tennessee L 70 - 76 30% 
 Wed, Jan 21 45 Texas W 82 - 75 73% 
 Sat, Jan 24 71 Mississippi W 78 - 68 82% 
 Tue, Jan 27 7 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 83 22% 
 Sat, Jan 31 19 @Arkansas L 79 - 84 34% 
 Wed, Feb 4 48 Oklahoma W 80 - 73 74% 
 Sat, Feb 7 16 Tennessee W 73 - 72 51% 
 Sat, Feb 14 12 @Florida L 73 - 79 28% 
 Tue, Feb 17 24 Georgia W 85 - 83 58% 
 Sat, Feb 21 33 @Auburn L 78 - 80 43% 
 Tue, Feb 24 72 @South Carolina W 74 - 70 64% 
 Sat, Feb 28 7 Vanderbilt L 78 - 80 40% 
 Tue, Mar 3 40 @Texas A&M L 80 - 81 47% 
 Sat, Mar 7 12 Florida L 75 - 76 49% 
Totals 17 - 14 8 - 10 +15 +7 B+ B+ B+ +8 A+ A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.8 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.9 3.1 0.2 8.8 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 5.5 0.8 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.9 2.8 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.3 3.8 4.7 0.5 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 5.2 1.8 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.5 0.3 8.0 12th
13th 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.0 6.5 13th
14th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.6 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.2 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 6.9 10.9 14.7 16.4 15.7 13.0 8.8 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 87.5% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 62.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 23.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 27.5% 72.5% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.3% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 3.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
12-6 4.9% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 4.6 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
11-7 8.8% 99.9% 8.5% 91.4% 5.5 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.9 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.0% 99.6% 5.2% 94.4% 6.6 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.4 4.4 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 99.6%
9-9 15.7% 94.9% 3.1% 91.8% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.1 3.6 2.0 0.5 0.8 94.7%
8-10 16.4% 74.8% 2.4% 72.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.8 4.3 0.1 4.1 74.2%
7-11 14.7% 31.7% 1.4% 30.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 30.7%
6-12 10.9% 5.5% 0.9% 4.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 10.3 4.6%
5-13 6.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.1%
4-14 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 62.3% 4.0% 58.4% 7.4 37.7 60.8%