Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#9
Pace75.6#24
Improvement-2.5#286

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#6
First Shot+13.3#1
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#230
Layup/Dunks+4.0#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#45
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement-1.8#270

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#55
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#27
Layups/Dunks+5.0#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#45
Freethrows+1.5#81
Improvement-0.8#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 14.5% 19.9% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 92.7% 97.4% 82.4%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.3 3.1 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round91.8% 93.0% 89.2%
Sweet Sixteen57.0% 57.5% 55.7%
Elite Eight23.8% 24.8% 21.6%
Final Four9.4% 9.4% 9.3%
Championship Game3.6% 3.8% 3.2%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 1.0%

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 78 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 311 - 10
Quad 21 - 112 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 230   Wright St. W 103-62 98%     1 - 0 +34.6 +17.3 +14.8
  Nov 09, 2024 224   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +21.8 +13.7 +5.1
  Nov 12, 2024 1   Duke W 77-72 20%     3 - 0 +31.8 +11.3 +20.2
  Nov 19, 2024 97   Lipscomb W 97-68 92%     4 - 0 +31.2 +22.5 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 262   Jackson St. W 108-59 98%     5 - 0 +40.6 +16.8 +16.9
  Nov 26, 2024 160   Western Kentucky W 87-68 96%     6 - 0 +16.2 +6.1 +8.2
  Nov 29, 2024 254   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +21.3 +13.6 +4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 21   @ Clemson L 66-70 44%     7 - 1 +15.2 +4.2 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 10   Gonzaga W 90-89 OT 45%     8 - 1 +20.0 +19.8 +0.2
  Dec 11, 2024 257   Colgate W 78-67 98%     9 - 1 +3.1 +3.5 +0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 23   Louisville W 93-85 67%     10 - 1 +21.2 +22.9 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 39   Ohio St. L 65-85 68%     10 - 2 -7.1 -0.1 -7.8
  Dec 31, 2024 205   Brown W 88-54 97%     11 - 2 +28.7 +17.4 +12.7
  Jan 04, 2025 3   Florida W 106-100 38%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +26.8 +39.4 -12.8
  Jan 07, 2025 33   @ Georgia L 69-82 55%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +3.5 +0.6 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 30   @ Mississippi St. W 95-90 52%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +22.0 +23.7 -2.0
  Jan 14, 2025 22   Texas A&M W 81-69 65%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +25.6 +14.5 +10.8
  Jan 18, 2025 5   Alabama L 97-102 47%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +13.4 +20.0 -6.2
  Jan 25, 2025 51   @ Vanderbilt L 69-74 65%     14 - 5 3 - 3 +8.7 +3.8 +4.7
  Jan 28, 2025 6   @ Tennessee W 78-73 30%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +28.0 +22.4 +5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 37   Arkansas L 79-89 76%     15 - 6 4 - 4 +0.3 +10.3 -9.7
  Feb 04, 2025 29   @ Mississippi L 84-98 52%     15 - 7 4 - 5 +3.1 +17.7 -14.4
  Feb 08, 2025 71   South Carolina W 80-57 87%     16 - 7 5 - 5 +28.3 +11.6 +16.9
  Feb 11, 2025 6   Tennessee W 75-64 51%     17 - 7 6 - 5 +28.5 +20.1 +9.5
  Feb 15, 2025 42   @ Texas L 78-82 62%     17 - 8 6 - 6 +10.6 +9.3 +1.5
  Feb 19, 2025 51   Vanderbilt W 82-61 82%     18 - 8 7 - 6 +29.2 +15.2 +15.0
  Feb 22, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 83-96 27%     18 - 9 7 - 7 +10.9 +8.5 +4.0
  Feb 26, 2025 38   @ Oklahoma W 83-82 58%     19 - 9 8 - 7 +16.7 +11.2 +5.5
  Mar 01, 2025 2   Auburn L 78-94 35%     19 - 10 8 - 8 +5.5 +8.7 -2.3
  Mar 04, 2025 86   LSU W 95-64 90%     20 - 10 9 - 8 +34.6 +17.4 +14.6
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ Missouri W 91-83 43%     21 - 10 10 - 8 +27.5 +20.9 +6.4
  Mar 13, 2025 38   Oklahoma W 86-81 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 3.3 1.1 13.4 47.5 30.7 6.7 0.6 100.0%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 3.3 1.1 13.4 47.5 30.7 6.7 0.6 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 2.2 10.7 64.3 24.3 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.7% 100.0% 2.7 2.6 34.9 56.1 6.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.3% 100.0% 2.9 1.8 24.7 57.9 15.0 0.6
Lose Out 31.5% 100.0% 3.8 0.2 2.4 34.0 45.8 15.9 1.7