Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#15
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#26
Pace68.2#202
Improvement+3.4#28

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#34
First Shot+5.4#51
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#82
Layup/Dunks+7.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#355
Freethrows+4.4#10
Improvement+2.3#45

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#8
First Shot+6.6#21
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#55
Layups/Dunks+5.5#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows+1.6#69
Improvement+1.1#107
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.2% 5.2% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 15.2% 15.3% 3.3%
Top 4 Seed 42.6% 42.8% 17.2%
Top 6 Seed 67.6% 67.9% 39.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.5% 94.6% 83.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.6% 93.7% 82.6%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.7
.500 or above 99.6% 99.6% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 92.6% 83.3%
Conference Champion 24.3% 24.4% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 5.8%
First Round93.5% 93.6% 81.6%
Second Round72.6% 72.8% 51.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.9% 39.0% 23.5%
Elite Eight17.8% 17.9% 8.6%
Final Four8.0% 8.0% 3.0%
Championship Game3.4% 3.4% 1.5%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.5%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 8
Quad 27 - 114 - 9
Quad 34 - 019 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 262   Monmouth W 81-57 98%     1 - 0 +15.6 +1.2 +13.7
  Nov 07, 2024 320   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.0 +15.2 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2024 8   Kansas L 69-77 41%     2 - 1 +9.9 -1.8 +12.6
  Nov 16, 2024 289   Bowling Green W 86-72 98%     3 - 1 +4.1 +6.4 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 119   Samford W 83-75 92%     4 - 1 +7.9 +5.1 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2024 77   Colorado W 72-56 78%     5 - 1 +23.5 +5.3 +18.4
  Nov 26, 2024 43   Memphis L 63-71 66%     5 - 2 +3.2 +1.2 +1.2
  Nov 27, 2024 22   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 54%     6 - 2 +17.6 +15.6 +1.7
  Dec 04, 2024 111   @ Minnesota W 90-72 81%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +24.3 +30.1 -4.2
  Dec 07, 2024 46   Nebraska W 89-52 77%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +44.9 +20.9 +23.5
  Dec 17, 2024 183   Oakland W 77-58 93%     9 - 2 +17.8 +10.0 +9.8
  Dec 21, 2024 88   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 87%     10 - 2 +20.3 +7.5 +11.9
  Dec 30, 2024 293   Western Michigan W 85-59 99%    
  Jan 03, 2025 29   @ Ohio St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 95   Washington W 79-66 89%    
  Jan 12, 2025 55   @ Northwestern W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 15, 2025 32   Penn St. W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 19, 2025 21   Illinois W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 25, 2025 64   Rutgers W 77-70 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 111   Minnesota W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 01, 2025 71   @ USC W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 18   @ UCLA L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 23   Oregon W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 11, 2025 51   Indiana W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 21   @ Illinois L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 18, 2025 27   Purdue W 75-70 67%    
  Feb 21, 2025 19   @ Michigan L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 71-74 38%    
  Mar 02, 2025 34   Wisconsin W 76-70 72%    
  Mar 06, 2025 42   @ Iowa W 80-79 55%    
  Mar 09, 2025 19   Michigan W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 5.5 7.5 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.4 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.3 5.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 3.8 0.8 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 1.7 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.0 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.2 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.7 10.0 13.0 14.9 14.9 13.1 10.0 6.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 99.0% 2.8    2.7 0.1
17-3 93.3% 5.6    4.7 0.9 0.0
16-4 75.0% 7.5    4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 41.8% 5.5    1.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 11.5% 1.7    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 15.1 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.9% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.0% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 2.1 1.7 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.0% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 2.7 1.1 3.1 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.1% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.5 0.4 1.9 4.3 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.9% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.5 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.9% 99.8% 10.4% 89.4% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 4.0 4.0 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.0% 99.0% 6.6% 92.4% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
11-9 10.0% 96.3% 4.7% 91.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.4 96.1%
10-10 6.7% 88.8% 3.3% 85.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 88.4%
9-11 4.1% 62.5% 2.1% 60.4% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.6 61.7%
8-12 2.1% 29.0% 1.5% 27.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 28.0%
7-13 0.8% 4.5% 0.7% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.8%
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.5% 13.5% 81.0% 5.1 5.2 10.0 13.5 13.9 12.9 12.1 9.9 7.1 5.0 2.9 1.9 0.1 5.5 93.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1