Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.1 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +21.6 #10
Pace 66.1 #251
Improvement +0.1 #185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #44 B- A C- B+ D+
Defense #2 A A+ C+ B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #192 1.31 #35 +2.6 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.78 #138 +2.1 #72
Three Pointers 37% #270 1.08 #92 -1.1 #223
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #73 +3.7 #73
Freethrows 0.36 #36 75% #94 0.27 #28
Second Chance 40.0% #9 1.13 #62 0.45 #14
Turnovers 17.3% #220
Total Offense +7.4 #44

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 0.96 #12 +8.3 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #88 0.68 #61 -0.2 #201
Three Pointers 47% #30 0.88 #28 +0.0 #181
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #5 +8.1 #6
Freethrows 0.23 #19 72% #150 0.17 #25
Second Chance 20.0% #1 0.67 #2 0.13 #1
Turnovers 17.9% #110
Total Defense +12.7 #2

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #271 -2.0% #36
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.6% #58 -14.2% #4
Possession Length 16.3 #82 19.0 #355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 #3 0.15 #109
Improvement +0.8 #134 -0.8 #234

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.2% 9.3% 3.6%
Top 2 Seed 31.4% 34.4% 18.4%
Top 4 Seed 86.0% 88.4% 75.5%
Top 6 Seed 99.1% 99.4% 97.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.2 3.1 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 7.5% 8.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.5% 95.9% 94.1%
Sweet Sixteen64.7% 65.8% 60.0%
Elite Eight33.0% 34.4% 27.2%
Final Four15.7% 16.5% 12.4%
Championship Game7.1% 7.5% 5.5%
National Champion3.1% 3.3% 2.4%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 09 - 7
Quad 27 - 016 - 7
Quad 34 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 222 Colgate W 80 - 69 98% +6  1 - 0 +5 +4 F A+ C+ +1 D A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 22 Arkansas W 69 - 66 74% +2  2 - 0 +16 +1 D- B+ D +15 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 242 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 99% +14  3 - 0 +11 +5 D+ C A+ +8 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 18 26 Kentucky W 83 - 66 66% +11  4 - 0 +33 +17 A+ C+ C +16 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 278 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99% +16  5 - 0 +18 +7 D+ A+ D- +12 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 247 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98% +22  6 - 0 +28 +14 B+ A- B +14 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 29 North Carolina W 74 - 58 69% +4  7 - 0 +31 +18 A+ A+ D +16 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 21 Iowa W 71 - 52 73% +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +33 +19 D+ A+ C- +18 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke L 60 - 66 48% -0  8 - 1 +15 +3 D- C+ A+ +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 112 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 90% +1  9 - 1 2 - 0 +10 +4 C B+ F +6 A- A D+
 Tue, Dec 16 159 Toledo W 92 - 69 97% +20  10 - 1 +20 +13 B A D+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 129 Oakland W 79 - 70 95% +4  11 - 1 +11 +6 D A- C- +5 C- A+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 176 Cornell W 114 - 97 98% +6  12 - 1 +13 +14 A- C+ C -4 C A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 13 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 45% -1  12 - 2 2 - 1 +19 -1 C B- F +20 A+ A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 5 48 USC W 80 - 51 86% +14  13 - 2 3 - 1 +37 +11 A+ D C+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 63 Northwestern W 76 - 66 90% +0  14 - 2 4 - 1 +16 +8 C+ A+ F +8 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 13 30 Indiana W 81 - 60 79% +5  15 - 2 5 - 1 +33 +19 A+ A- F +16 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 41 @Washington W 80 - 63 68% +8  16 - 2 6 - 1 +32 +18 B+ A A+ +15 B A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 82 @Oregon W 68 - 52 84% +4  17 - 2 7 - 1 +26 +12 A+ B F+ +17 A- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 107 Maryland W 91 - 48 95% +24  18 - 2 8 - 1 +44 +30 A+ A+ A- +19 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 27 114 @Rutgers W 88 - 79 OT 90% -5  19 - 2 9 - 1 +15 +16 C+ A+ D -1 C A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71 - 83 43% -7  19 - 3 9 - 2 +10 +7 B D- C- +3 A+ A- B
 Wed, Feb 4 76 @Minnesota W 69 - 60 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 7 Illinois W 73 - 71 57%
 Fri, Feb 13 37 @Wisconsin W 76 - 72 63%
 Tue, Feb 17 35 UCLA W 72 - 63 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 36 Ohio St. W 77 - 67 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 8 @Purdue L 69 - 73 36%
 Sun, Mar 1 30 @Indiana W 73 - 71 59%
 Thu, Mar 5 114 Rutgers W 79 - 59 97%
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 70 - 78 22%
Totals 25 - 6 15 - 5 +20 +7 B- A C- +13 A A+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 4.7 1.2 7.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 9.5 4.1 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 11.1 7.7 0.4 21.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 11.9 12.1 2.0 27.9 4th
5th 0.7 6.9 8.8 1.6 0.0 17.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.6 0.5 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 0.4 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.3 12.9 23.6 27.3 20.7 9.1 1.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.0 0.3
17-3 51.1% 4.7    1.1 2.3 1.1 0.1
16-4 7.7% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
15-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 2.2 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.1% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.9 2.7 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.7% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.4 2.9 8.6 7.0 2.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 27.3% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 3.0 1.5 6.5 11.5 6.5 1.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 23.6% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.5 0.4 2.7 8.3 8.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.9% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 4.3 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.9 3.9 1.1 0.2 100.0%
12-8 4.3% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
11-9 0.8% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 3.2 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 41.4 56.9 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.6 51.3 41.0 5.1 2.6