Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.1 #14
Expected Predictive Rating +20.5 #12
Pace 67.4 #234
Improvement -0.6 #219

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #59 C+ A+ C A- D+
Defense #4 A+ A+ C+ B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #161 1.23 #101 +1.7 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #89 0.70 #249 +1.1 #119
Three Pointers 36% #289 1.06 #117 -1.6 #243
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #147 +1.1 #147
Freethrows 20.7 #36 75% #122 15.4 #31
Second Chance 40.7% #8 1.09 #130 0.44 #25
Turnovers 17.2% #219
Total Offense +5.9 #59

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 0.90 #4 +9.0 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #139 0.63 #32 +0.9 #130
Three Pointers 49% #22 0.89 #49 -1.1 #224
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #7 +8.8 #7
Freethrows 14.6 #50 73% #200 10.6 #305
Second Chance 20.3% #2 0.71 #2 0.14 #1
Turnovers 17.4% #131
Total Defense +12.2 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #258 -1.6% #59
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #132 -16.0% #7
Possession Length 16.3 #88 18.7 #346
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 #4 0.16 #122
Improvement -1.8 #287 +1.1 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 4.0% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 13.4% 16.5% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 62.2% 68.8% 46.8%
Top 6 Seed 91.0% 94.4% 83.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.8% 98.7%
Average Seed 4.2 3.9 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 99.0% 94.3%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.2% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Round99.4% 99.8% 98.6%
Second Round87.3% 89.6% 82.1%
Sweet Sixteen50.7% 53.8% 43.5%
Elite Eight21.3% 23.2% 16.8%
Final Four8.9% 9.9% 6.4%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.3%
National Champion1.3% 1.5% 0.9%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 70.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 8
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 019 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 205 Colgate W 80 - 69 98%  +6  1 - 0 +6 +5 F A+ C +1 D A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 19 Arkansas W 69 - 66 67%  +2  2 - 0 +16 +2 F A- F +15 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 221 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 98%  +14  3 - 0 +13 +6 D+ C+ A+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 27 Kentucky W 83 - 66 62%  +11  4 - 0 +32 +17 A+ C C- +15 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 281 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99%  +16  5 - 0 +18 +7 D A+ F +12 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 266 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98%  +22  6 - 0 +27 +13 A- A- B+ +13 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 26 North Carolina W 74 - 58 61%  +4  7 - 0 +31 +20 A+ A+ D- +14 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 20 Iowa W 71 - 52 68%  +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +32 +19 D A+ D+ +17 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 6 Duke L 60 - 66 50%  -0  8 - 1 +12 +1 F C+ A+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 105 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 84%  +1  9 - 1 2 - 0 +11 +7 C A- F +5 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 180 Toledo W 92 - 69 97%  +20  10 - 1 +19 +13 B A+ D +5 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 124 Oakland W 79 - 70 92%  +4  11 - 1 +11 +5 D- A D +7 C+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 168 Cornell W 114 - 97 97%  +6  12 - 1 +13 +15 A C C+ -5 C A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 23 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 48%  -1  12 - 2 2 - 1 +17 -2 C B F +19 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 46 USC W 80 - 51 83%  +14  13 - 2 3 - 1 +37 +10 A+ D- B- +27 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 60 Northwestern W 76 - 66 87%  +0  14 - 2 4 - 1 +16 +8 B- A+ F +9 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 25 Indiana W 74 - 68 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 47 @Washington W 72 - 68 65% 
 Tue, Jan 20 65 @Oregon W 73 - 67 72% 
 Sat, Jan 24 107 Maryland W 78 - 61 94% 
 Tue, Jan 27 131 @Rutgers W 74 - 61 89% 
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 72 - 77 30% 
 Wed, Feb 4 76 @Minnesota W 68 - 61 75% 
 Sat, Feb 7 9 Illinois W 72 - 71 53% 
 Fri, Feb 13 43 @Wisconsin W 74 - 71 62% 
 Tue, Feb 17 38 UCLA W 73 - 65 77% 
 Sun, Feb 22 30 Ohio St. W 75 - 68 74% 
 Thu, Feb 26 4 @Purdue L 66 - 74 24% 
 Sun, Mar 1 25 @Indiana L 71 - 72 49% 
 Thu, Mar 5 131 Rutgers W 77 - 58 96% 
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 69 - 80 15% 
Totals 23 - 8 13 - 7 +18 +6 C+ A+ C +12 A+ A+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.9 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.8 1.9 0.1 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.6 8.5 3.3 0.3 18.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.2 9.4 4.2 0.4 0.0 21.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.2 8.5 3.3 0.3 0.0 16.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.6 3.1 0.3 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.3 2.8 0.4 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.1 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.7 4.5 9.2 14.3 19.3 19.1 16.5 9.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 86.6% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 44.4% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 11.0% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.0% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2.1 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.6% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 2.6 1.0 3.2 4.0 1.3 0.1 100.0%
15-5 16.5% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.1 0.6 2.9 7.7 4.4 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 19.1% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 3.7 0.2 1.3 6.6 7.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.3% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 4.3 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.4 6.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.3% 99.9% 2.8% 97.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 9.2% 99.9% 1.5% 98.4% 5.9 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 4.5% 98.8% 0.7% 98.1% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
9-11 1.7% 91.4% 0.6% 90.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 91.3%
8-12 0.5% 74.8% 1.0% 73.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 74.5%
7-13 0.2% 32.3% 32.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 32.3%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 5.9% 93.6% 4.2 0.5 99.5%