Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 86
Results Rating +4.9 96
Pace 64.7 281
Improvement -4.6 335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 86 B C+ C+ C C-
Defense B- 96 B- B+ D+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 306 B+ 66% 36 +0.1 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 196 C+ 40% 110 +0.9 129
Three Pointers 44% 123 B 37% 69 +3.3 73
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 249 B+ +4.7 41
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 62
Second Chance B- 34.0% 79 D+ 0.96 285 C+ 0.33 145
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 143
Freethrows C 0.31 166 D+ 69% 281 C 0.22 196
Total Offense B- +3.8 86

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 284 A 6.0% 7
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 320 C 5.2% 200
Three Pointers D+ 80% 278 C+ 0.7% 139
Total D+ 50% 300 A- 3.5% 14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 C+ 57% 146 -5.2 40
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 162 C+ 37% 119 -0.2 179
Three Pointers 49% 13 B- 32% 82 +2.4 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 73 B- -2.3 91
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 84
Second Chance A- 24.0% 15 C 1.01 158 B+ 0.24 32
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 257
Freethrows C+ 0.29 128 D+ 74% 295 C+ 0.21 155
Total Defense B- +2.8 96

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 93 C+ 11.9% 132
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 101 D+ 3.5% 264
Three Pointers D+ 87% 268 D+ 0.5% 251
Total C 56% 196 D+ 4.6% 261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 184 18.0 288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 216 0.16 137
Improvement +0.1 #180 -4.7 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 98 85 70
Results Rating Rank 126 96 83
Conference Record 3 - 15 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 17 15 14
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.5
.500 or above 2% 17% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 9% 1% 10%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 7.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 11
Quad 22 - 44 - 16
Quad 33 - 17 - 17
Quad 47 - 114 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 219 LIU Brooklyn W 89 - 67 88% +15  99% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 A A+ F B +5 A B- C+
 Fri, Nov 7 255 Detroit Mercy W 102 - 70 91% +17  86% 2 - 0 A+ +24 A +13 A- A+ A A- +8 C- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 324 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 58 96% +7  82% 3 - 0 B- +7 A +12 C- A+ B C- -2 F+ A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 36 @Ohio St. L 63 - 64 16% +3  68% 3 - 1 A- +16 D+ -3 B F D A+ +20 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 285 Bellarmine W 86 - 79 94% +9  77% 4 - 1 C- -3 C- -1 B+ A- F C- -2 D A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 21 Kansas L 61 - 71 15% -6  16% 4 - 2 B- +8 C- -0 C+ F A+ A- +8 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 111 Rutgers W 68 - 63 63% +8  89% 5 - 2 B +8 C+ +2 B+ A F A- +7 B+ D- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 6 Houston L 56 - 66 8% -12  0% 5 - 3 B+ +12 C +2 D C+ A+ A +9 A+ F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 49 Missouri W 76 - 71 45% -1  27% 6 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 A- D- D+ A +9 A- A+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 50 @TCU W 87 - 85 OT 25% -2  27% 7 - 3 A- +16 A+ +15 A+ F+ B- C+ +1 D+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 187 Idaho W 80 - 65 85% +5  84% 8 - 3 B +10 A +11 A B- C+ C+ +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 295 Evansville W 82 - 58 94% +11  96% 9 - 3 B+ +13 B +7 A- D- D+ A- +8 C B+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 261 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 72 92% -4  6% 9 - 4 D- -12 F -10 F+ D- D C -1 C A- F+
 Tue, Dec 30 77 @Stanford W 47 - 40 35% +5  77% 10 - 4 1 - 0 A- +18 F -13 F C D+ A+ +32 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 70 @California L 71 - 72 33% +2  62% 10 - 5 1 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 B D- A+ C+ +1 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 41 Clemson L 61 - 76 37% -6  7% 10 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -2 A C+ D- D+ -5 B+ D F
 Tue, Jan 13 39 Miami (FL) L 69 - 81 36% -5  9% 10 - 7 1 - 3 C- -2 C -0 B B+ F C- -2 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 57 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 89 28% -11  3% 10 - 8 1 - 4 C -0 B +6 C+ A C D -6 C+ F B
 Wed, Jan 21 27 @North Carolina L 69 - 91 14% -14  0% 10 - 9 1 - 5 C- -4 C+ +2 D+ C+ A+ D- -7 D+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 139 Boston College W 68 - 64 79% -4  23% 11 - 9 2 - 5 C+ +2 C +1 D A B+ C+ +1 A- F C-
 Tue, Jan 27 22 Virginia L 97 - 100 2OT 24% +5  73% 11 - 10 2 - 6 B +11 A+ +18 A+ D A D- -7 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 73 @Syracuse L 72 - 86 35% -8  4% 11 - 11 2 - 7 C- -3 B- +4 A F A- F+ -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 11 @Louisville L 65 - 76 8% -3  35% 11 - 12 2 - 8 B +11 C -0 C A- C+ A+ +11 A B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 80 Florida St. L 79 - 82 59% -8  1% 11 - 13 2 - 9 C +1 C+ +3 C- D+ B+ C -1 B A F
 Tue, Feb 10 31 @SMU L 81 - 89 15% -5  4% 11 - 14 2 - 10 B +10 A +12 A+ C- C+ C- -2 D+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 14 140 Georgia Tech W 89 - 74 79% +11  91% 12 - 14 3 - 10 B+ +13 A+ +16 A+ A+ D C- -2 D A- A-
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @Pittsburgh L 68 - 73 44% -3  21% 12 - 15 3 - 11 C+ +3 B- +4 C+ C- A C- -2 D+ B+ C-
 Tue, Feb 24 2 Duke L 63 - 78 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 24 North Carolina St. L 73 - 79 28%
 Wed, Mar 4 77 Stanford W 73 - 71 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 139 @Boston College W 69 - 67 59%
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 13 +7 B- +4 C- B+ C- B- +3 B D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B+ C+ B B+ 34% 36% 44% C- B B- D+ C+ C+ C D+ C B- C+ C+ B- B- 30% 21% 49% B- B- A- C B+ D+ C+ D+ C+
1.14 66% 40% 37% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.0 .33 16% .31 69% .22 1.05 57% 37% 32% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.0 .24 16% .29 74% .23
Nov
3		 LIU Brooklyn A- A+ D A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% F+ A A+ A A+ F A+ C A+ B B A+ C A 33% 28% 39% A- A C+ B B- C+ F B F
1.25 73% 33% 43% +10 -1 1.20 50% 1.2 .62 27% .58 70% .40 0.94 53% 23% 33% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.9 .29 21% .55 61% .34
Nov
7		 Detroit Mercy A C F A+ A 38% 12% 50% C A- C- A+ A+ A D+ C D+ A- A- F B C- 25% 33% 43% C C- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+
1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23 0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08
Nov
11		 Eastern Illinois A B+ D+ F+ C- 39% 16% 45% C C- A+ D A+ B D D D- C- A- F C+ F 20% 38% 42% A+ F+ C- A+ A+ C B- F C
1.28 68% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22 0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20
Nov
16		 Ohio St. D+ F+ A+ C+ A 31% 50% 19% F B D- F F D A F B- A+ D A+ C+ A+ 21% 34% 45% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D- D- F+
0.94 47% 54% 33% +4 -4 1.02 23% 0.3 .06 19% .37 60% .22 0.96 70% 31% 33% 0 -3 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 15% .41 83% .34
Nov
19		 Bellarmine C- A+ A+ B- A- 35% 23% 42% D+ B+ B- A- A- F A+ C- A+ C- D- F B D- 36% 16% 49% B D A+ B+ A+ B F D+ F
1.24 80% 60% 39% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.3 .50 20% .58 72% .41 1.14 69% 86% 32% +10 0 1.22 8% 1.0 .08 19% .48 81% .39
Nov
24		 Kansas C- A F F C 40% 24% 36% B- C+ D+ F F A+ B- A+ A A- C F A B 38% 26% 36% B- B B- A- B+ C A A A+
0.93 64% 23% 20% -9 0 0.84 23% 0.4 .09 8% .25 87% .21 1.08 63% 46% 28% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 14% .23 69% .16
Nov
25		 Rutgers C+ C- C+ A+ B 52% 18% 30% A- B+ A+ C+ A F D- F F+ A- A A+ F+ B+ 16% 30% 53% B+ B+ B- F D- A+ C- B- C
1.09 57% 38% 46% +4 +1 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 26% .19 67% .13 1.01 43% 15% 39% -5 -3 0.86 31% 1.5 .46 23% .35 71% .25
Nov
26		 Houston C B D F D- 24% 17% 59% C+ D D+ A C+ A+ A A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 16% 31% 53% B+ A+ C F F D- F C F
0.95 60% 29% 21% -13 -1 0.76 24% 1.1 .27 14% .41 76% .31 1.12 29% 14% 25% -19 -3 0.58 39% 1.5 .59 8% .43 78% .33
Dec
2		 Missouri B- A+ A+ D+ A 21% 19% 60% C A- D F+ D- D+ B A A- A F+ B+ A+ A- 38% 21% 42% B+ A- A+ A+ A+ C D- C D-
1.11 82% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 24% 0.7 .17 19% .32 83% .27 1.03 72% 30% 25% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 17% .44 68% .30
Dec
5		 TCU A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 29% 45% F+ A+ C F F+ B- A- F D C+ F A+ D- D 37% 18% 46% C+ D+ A+ F B+ F C A- B-
1.16 73% 50% 48% +17 -2 1.32 26% 0.6 .16 19% .33 45% .15 1.14 71% 20% 38% +5 0 1.12 15% 2.0 .30 11% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho A A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 48% 23% F A A F+ B- C+ F D F C+ B- A+ F C- 33% 25% 41% A- C A A+ A+ F A+ F A-
1.27 80% 32% 67% +15 -4 1.23 35% 0.9 .32 14% .19 70% .13 1.04 53% 15% 48% +1 -1 1.02 20% 0.7 .14 10% .18 90% .16
Dec
13		 Evansville B F A- A+ A 25% 29% 45% D- A- D+ F D- D+ B D+ C+ A- C- A- C- C 28% 22% 50% D+ C C A+ B+ C+ B- A+ B+
1.23 38% 47% 57% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.8 .24 18% .31 71% .22 0.87 62% 30% 35% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.8 .17 20% .24 62% .15
Dec
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne F B+ F F F 40% 13% 48% C+ F+ B- F D- D B A- B+ C D+ B- C C- 24% 17% 59% B+ C A- A A- F+ D+ F+ D
0.99 68% 17% 26% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.7 .27 22% .31 82% .26 1.03 62% 33% 34% 0 -1 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 11% .28 76% .21
Dec
30		 Stanford F F F F F 49% 21% 30% B+ F A F C D+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 4% 52% D A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
0.81 43% 0% 23% -20 +1 0.63 38% 0.8 .29 21% .30 57% .17 0.69 43% 0% 16% -22 +3 0.63 24% 0.4 .10 10% .23 83% .19
Jan
2		 California B+ F A+ B+ B+ 25% 17% 58% D+ B B F D- A+ A+ D A+ C+ F F A+ B+ 20% 18% 62% C+ B+ A- A A F A+ B- A+
1.13 42% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29 1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15
Jan
10		 Clemson C- B F+ A+ A+ 24% 26% 50% D+ A C- A C+ D- A F B- D+ F F A+ B 27% 25% 47% A+ B+ B F D F B- F C-
0.95 60% 27% 43% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.2 .24 22% .36 67% .24 1.19 71% 54% 25% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.4 .35 9% .31 83% .26
Jan
13		 Miami (FL) C C+ A+ D B+ 28% 28% 44% D B A+ D- B+ F A+ D+ A C- F F B+ C- 37% 24% 39% A C A+ A+ A+ F+ C- F D-
1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24 1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 Virginia Tech B A F+ D B- 33% 25% 41% C- C+ B+ A- A C A+ B+ A+ D A F C C+ 36% 18% 45% C- C+ C- F F B F F F
1.07 71% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .36 76% .28 1.25 50% 63% 35% +2 0 1.07 35% 1.9 .65 17% .54 88% .47
Jan
21		 North Carolina C+ F C+ C C 22% 37% 41% F+ D+ A F+ C+ A+ C F D D- D+ F D- D+ 34% 8% 58% D- D+ C+ F F C- D+ C D+
1.00 38% 36% 33% -5 -3 0.85 35% 0.7 .25 7% .20 54% .11 1.32 67% 50% 39% +8 +1 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 12% .38 70% .26
Jan
24		 Boston College C B+ B+ F D+ 29% 29% 43% D- D B+ A+ A B+ A+ D+ A- C+ D+ B- A+ A 26% 22% 52% C+ A- B- F F C- B C B-
1.06 64% 43% 19% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .39 12% .39 64% .25 1.00 62% 36% 23% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 14% .25 64% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Virginia A+ B B+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% C+ A+ C F D A A+ A A+ D- F+ F+ C C- 36% 15% 49% B- C- A- A+ A+ D+ F F F
1.24 59% 43% 48% +10 -1 1.20 26% 0.7 .17 13% .50 82% .41 1.28 68% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.9 .30 14% .52 80% .42
Jan
31		 Syracuse B- A+ B- F+ A 35% 22% 43% C- A F B+ F A- B+ D+ B F+ F F F+ F 32% 21% 47% B+ F A+ C+ A+ F C A B-
1.07 78% 36% 27% +2 0 1.06 13% 1.3 .16 15% .35 70% .24 1.28 88% 55% 40% +17 0 1.36 20% 1.0 .20 9% .34 57% .20
Feb
4		 Louisville C D F B+ C 26% 30% 44% C- C B A A- C+ D+ F F A+ D- F A+ A+ 45% 8% 47% C- A F+ A+ B+ B- C+ A- B-
0.94 50% 19% 38% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.2 .33 17% .25 43% .11 1.10 70% 75% 21% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.7 .28 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
7		 Florida St. C+ B- A- F D+ 33% 20% 47% C+ C- B- F D+ B+ A+ F A- C A A+ F B- 29% 12% 59% B B A+ D+ A F C- D D+
1.09 61% 45% 27% -3 0 0.96 33% 0.6 .21 17% .40 63% .25 1.13 47% 0% 40% -2 0 0.98 21% 1.2 .26 7% .33 77% .25
Feb
10		 SMU A A+ D+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% B A+ D- A C- C+ C- F D- C- B+ D- F C- 37% 16% 47% D- D+ D- F+ F A+ C C+ C+
1.17 74% 33% 46% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.1 .26 17% .25 57% .14 1.29 56% 50% 48% +11 0 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 20% .29 75% .22
Feb
14		 Georgia Tech A+ A+ D A+ A+ 22% 28% 50% D- A+ A+ A A+ D B+ A+ A+ C- F B- D D- 22% 18% 59% B- D A+ F A- A- B F D
1.29 70% 31% 48% +11 -2 1.20 42% 1.3 .55 19% .34 89% .30 1.07 73% 33% 38% +6 -1 1.12 18% 1.6 .29 22% .26 93% .24
Feb
21		 Pittsburgh B- A+ C+ F C+ 32% 10% 58% B- C+ A+ F C- A C- F F C- D A+ F D 33% 17% 50% B- D+ B+ B B+ C- F C F
1.08 75% 40% 28% 0 +1 1.04 38% 0.6 .21 13% .26 50% .13 1.16 64% 14% 43% +5 0 1.12 31% 0.9 .28 16% .51 67% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.4 0.5 12th
13th 0.1 3.2 0.4 3.8 13th
14th 4.8 6.7 0.1 11.6 14th
15th 0.9 19.7 28.6 2.5 0.0 51.7 15th
16th 5.5 16.6 3.0 0.0 25.0 16th
17th 5.2 1.1 0.0 6.3 17th
18th 0.9 0.0 1.0 18th
Total 12.5 37.4 36.5 12.6 1.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.3%
6-12 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.6
5-13 36.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 36.5
4-14 37.4% 37.4
3-15 12.5% 12.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 12.5%