Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#83
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#124
Pace62.2#337
Improvement-1.3#248

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#49
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#262
Layup/Dunks+3.0#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#107
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-0.8#226

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#136
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#233
Layups/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#295
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#211
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement-0.5#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 11.0
.500 or above 42.3% 61.0% 30.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.1% 56.4% 26.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 6
Quad 24 - 75 - 13
Quad 34 - 49 - 17
Quad 47 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 321   Stonehill W 89-60 95%     1 - 0 +16.8 +12.8 +4.8
  Nov 11, 2024 342   Buffalo W 86-77 97%     2 - 0 -5.3 -1.5 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 85   @ Georgetown W 84-63 41%     3 - 0 +30.5 +26.3 +6.2
  Nov 19, 2024 269   North Dakota W 75-58 92%     4 - 0 +8.4 -4.0 +12.9
  Nov 22, 2024 175   Elon L 77-84 84%     4 - 1 -10.2 +8.9 -19.8
  Nov 26, 2024 63   Rutgers L 84-85 OT 44%     4 - 2 +7.9 +11.1 -3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 3   Houston L 54-65 8%     4 - 3 +11.7 +1.2 +8.8
  Nov 30, 2024 28   Creighton L 76-80 25%     4 - 4 +10.4 +10.8 -0.4
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Georgia L 48-69 24%     4 - 5 -6.5 -6.2 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 104   Syracuse W 69-64 70%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +6.9 -1.0 +8.0
  Dec 11, 2024 257   Dartmouth W 77-65 92%     6 - 5 +4.0 +3.3 +1.0
  Dec 22, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 91-62 97%     7 - 5 +13.1 +8.2 +4.7
  Dec 31, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech L 75-86 50%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -3.7 +13.9 -18.5
  Jan 04, 2025 36   North Carolina L 73-74 39%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +9.2 +7.2 +2.0
  Jan 08, 2025 91   @ North Carolina St. L 65-66 45%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +7.6 +7.5 +0.0
  Jan 11, 2025 2   @ Duke L 78-86 5%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +17.5 +24.4 -7.6
  Jan 13, 2025 176   Boston College W 78-60 84%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +14.7 +13.8 +3.6
  Jan 18, 2025 104   @ Syracuse L 69-77 52%     8 - 10 2 - 5 -1.1 -0.3 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 97   @ Virginia W 74-59 50%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +22.4 +20.3 +5.1
  Jan 28, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 71-68 68%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +5.4 +9.3 -3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) L 57-63 68%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -3.7 -7.6 +2.6
  Feb 04, 2025 82   @ Florida St. L 72-74 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 118   Virginia Tech W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 176   @ Boston College W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 16, 2025 27   Louisville L 71-76 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 42   SMU L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 47   Pittsburgh L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 32   @ Clemson L 64-73 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 65-70 31%    
  Mar 05, 2025 78   Stanford W 73-71 60%    
  Mar 08, 2025 116   California W 77-70 75%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.5 1.7 0.6 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.0 0.2 6.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 3.6 9.2 2.5 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 11.2 5.4 0.3 19.5 9th
10th 0.6 6.7 6.4 0.6 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 6.7 1.7 0.0 10.3 11th
12th 0.1 3.8 3.0 0.2 7.1 12th
13th 0.9 3.8 0.6 5.3 13th
14th 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.1 16th
17th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.2 1.2 5.2 12.2 19.8 23.4 19.8 12.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.3% 17.2% 17.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 17.2%
12-8 4.8% 2.9% 0.6% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 4.7 2.3%
11-9 12.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 12.0 0.8%
10-10 19.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.7 0.1%
9-11 23.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 0.1%
8-12 19.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 19.8
7-13 12.2% 12.2
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.5%