Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.1 115
Results Rating +3.0 116
Pace 69.2 162
Improvement -3.6 316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 79 B- B- B B- B-
Defense C- 202 D+ D B B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 B- 63% 77 +4.5 35
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 202 A- 46% 27 +0.7 138
Three Pointers 38% 235 C 34% 205 -1.6 236
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.6 107 B- +3.0 82
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 76
Second Chance C- 29.5% 207 A- 1.21 16 B- 0.36 84
Turnovers B 14.9% 67
Freethrows B- 0.33 105 B- 75% 106 B- 0.25 88
Total Offense B- +4.1 79

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 172 C+ 10.3% 139
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 325 C 5.6% 224
Three Pointers C 85% 172 B- 0.5% 90
Total C- 52% 249 C 5.7% 197

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 253 C- 60% 229 -0.6 155
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 246 C+ 37% 153 -0.9 116
Three Pointers 45% 62 D- 38% 326 +4.6 343
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 192 D +2.9 295
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 285
Second Chance C+ 29.0% 121 F 1.26 365 D 0.37 311
Turnovers B 19.2% 52
Freethrows A- 0.22 11 D 75% 325 B+ 0.17 20
Total Defense C- -1.0 202

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 197 D 6.6% 336
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 288 C 5.2% 151
Three Pointers C 83% 154 D 0.2% 336
Total D+ 59% 264 D- 3.5% 333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 84 18.4 327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 60 0.15 99
Improvement -2.5 #306 -1.1 #253

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 133 118 106
Results Rating Rank 142 117 103
Conference Record 2 - 18 3 - 17 4 - 16
Conference Finish 18 18 16
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 92% 72% 96%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 10
Quad 21 - 62 - 16
Quad 32 - 34 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 264 Fairfield W 76 - 68 87% -2  21% 1 - 0 C -1 D -4 D+ D+ A B +4 B- A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 321 @New Haven W 87 - 43 83% +18  83% 2 - 0 A+ +37 A+ +22 B A+ A+ A+ +20 A- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 154 Navy W 80 - 71 71% +6  89% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +7 C- A+ A C -1 C- D- A
 Sat, Nov 15 200 La Salle W 83 - 69 69% +11  87% 4 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +17 A+ C- A+ D+ -4 D- F A
 Wed, Nov 19 146 Harvard W 84 - 80 70% +2  60% 5 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +17 A A- A+ F -15 F F B
 Sat, Nov 22 61 Providence L 65 - 77 29% -3  31% 5 - 1 C- -3 F -11 F C+ C- A- +8 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 257 Boston University W 96 - 87 86% +12  92% 6 - 1 C +1 A+ +22 A A A+ F -20 F F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 286 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 89% +21  89% 7 - 1 A +21 C- -2 B- A+ F A+ +19 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 197 Campbell W 87 - 76 78% +5  73% 8 - 1 B- +6 B- +4 B+ F A+ C+ +1 D D+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 38 @Indiana L 72 - 113 11% -28  1% 8 - 2 0 - 1 F -24 C -0 C+ B+ D- F -22 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 10 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 11% -1  33% 8 - 3 0 - 2 B+ +12 B +7 B A A B +5 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 98 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 42% -16  0% 8 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F D+ D- -8 F C+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 352 NC Central W 90 - 67 96% +8  75% 9 - 4 B- +6 B+ +8 A+ F B- C -1 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Illinois L 65 - 73 7% -10  0% 9 - 5 0 - 3 B+ +12 D+ -2 D A- B+ A+ +14 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 4% -5  17% 9 - 6 0 - 4 A +22 B +7 D- A+ A A+ +14 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 7 @Purdue L 85 - 93 3% -5  9% 9 - 7 0 - 5 A- +16 A+ +23 A+ A+ B+ D- -7 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 37 UCLA L 60 - 71 23% -3  17% 9 - 8 0 - 6 C -0 C- -2 B- F C C -0 A F A+
 Sun, Jan 18 104 @Maryland L 73 - 96 34% -15  7% 9 - 9 0 - 7 F+ -16 B +6 A F A+ F -23 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 30 Wisconsin L 71 - 98 20% -20  11% 9 - 10 0 - 8 F+ -15 C- -2 D- B A+ F -13 F A D
 Mon, Jan 26 36 @Ohio St. L 78 - 84 10% -8  3% 9 - 11 0 - 9 B+ +11 A- +10 A A+ F C+ +1 D- A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 69 @Northwestern L 73 - 94 22% -7  6% 9 - 12 0 - 10 D -10 B- +5 A- F B F -15 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 1 59 Minnesota W 77 - 75 39% +6  94% 10 - 12 1 - 10 B- +8 A +13 B- A+ B+ D+ -5 C F B
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 69 - 110 2% -27  1% 10 - 13 1 - 11 D- -11 B+ +8 B- D- A+ F -18 F F D
 Sun, Feb 8 56 USC L 75 - 77 35% +1  41% 10 - 14 1 - 12 B- +5 C+ +2 A+ B- F B- +3 A- F A-
 Wed, Feb 11 48 @Washington W 63 - 60 15% +1  54% 11 - 14 2 - 12 A- +17 C- -1 B+ D+ D A+ +19 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 89 @Oregon L 72 - 83 27% -5  18% 11 - 15 2 - 13 C- -2 B +7 C- B- B+ F+ -9 F B A+
 Wed, Feb 18 111 Rutgers L 72 - 85 60% -13  0% 11 - 16 2 - 14 D- -13 C- -2 A- D F F -11 F B B
 Sat, Feb 21 13 @Nebraska L 64 - 87 5% -14  2% 11 - 17 2 - 15 C -1 C+ +2 B- C+ C- D+ -4 D F+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 26 Iowa L 68 - 78 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 36 Ohio St. L 75 - 83 21%
 Sun, Mar 8 111 @Rutgers L 74 - 77 38%
Totals 12 - 19 3 - 17 +3 B- +4 A B- B- C- -1 C B- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- A- C B- 43% 36% 38% B- B- C- A- B- B B- B- B- C- C- C+ D- D 36% 19% 45% C D+ C+ F D B A- D B+
1.14 63% 46% 34% +3 +1 1.09 30% 1.2 .36 15% .33 75% .25 1.10 60% 37% 38% +3 0 1.08 29% 1.3 .37 19% .22 75% .25
Nov
3		 Fairfield D C C F+ D 52% 15% 33% C+ D+ F A D+ A A+ F B- B F C+ A+ B 38% 13% 48% D- B- A- A- A- F A+ F B+
1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24 0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13
Nov
8		 New Haven A+ F A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C C+ A+ A- D- A+ A 36% 18% 46% D+ A- C+ C- C+ A+ A- A A-
1.40 48% 80% 43% +5 +2 1.16 40% 1.6 .63 10% .28 75% .21 0.69 50% 43% 22% -10 0 0.82 20% 1.0 .20 31% .19 63% .12
Nov
11		 Navy B B- C F+ C 36% 30% 34% C- C- B- A+ A+ A B B- B+ C D+ C B- C- 41% 27% 33% C+ C- B F D- A A- F C
1.17 63% 38% 28% -2 -1 0.96 33% 1.5 .52 13% .30 78% .23 1.03 60% 38% 31% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.4 .38 23% .27 93% .25
Nov
15		 La Salle A+ A- F A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ D- A C- A+ D- D D- D+ B F+ F F+ 36% 30% 34% B D- B+ F F A B- F C-
1.30 66% 20% 53% +12 +3 1.32 23% 1.3 .31 11% .19 64% .12 1.08 50% 46% 40% +3 -1 1.05 30% 1.6 .48 24% .31 80% .25
Nov
19		 Harvard A+ A+ D F+ A- 51% 12% 37% B+ A A+ D+ A- A+ A+ D- A+ F F B F F 38% 13% 49% D+ F F F F B A F B+
1.32 76% 33% 28% +5 +2 1.16 45% 0.9 .41 11% .44 68% .30 1.25 72% 33% 43% +12 +1 1.28 38% 1.6 .58 20% .16 100% .16
Nov
22		 Providence F F A- B- F 40% 25% 36% C F B D+ C+ C- C A+ B- A- B F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% D- A+ B- F D+ F B D+ B
0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22 1.10 57% 50% 19% -12 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24
Nov
25		 Boston University A+ B- A+ A+ A 48% 16% 36% B A B- A+ A A+ A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 23% 13% 65% C+ F C+ F F F+ B C+ B
1.51 62% 71% 44% +12 +1 1.30 33% 1.4 .47 5% .66 70% .46 1.37 82% 67% 45% +20 0 1.42 25% 1.7 .42 14% .24 69% .16
Nov
29		 Sacred Heart C- B F A+ C+ 55% 18% 27% B- B- A A+ A+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ A- A+ D B 34% 18% 48% C- B- A A+ A+ A+ A- F B
1.16 68% 11% 50% +7 +2 1.20 41% 1.4 .59 22% .48 66% .31 0.76 47% 22% 38% -4 0 0.94 18% 0.7 .12 31% .21 91% .19
Dec
2		 Campbell B- C+ A+ B+ B+ 52% 23% 25% C+ B+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ F D 52% 12% 36% D D D- C D+ A B A+ A+
1.19 63% 58% 38% +9 +1 1.21 20% 0.3 .07 10% .38 88% .33 1.04 54% 17% 44% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.0 .38 23% .34 53% .18
Dec
9		 Indiana C C+ B+ F B- 37% 33% 31% C- C+ C- A+ B+ D- A- F+ B- F F F F F 44% 4% 53% D- F A- F F C- A+ D+ A
0.98 56% 44% 27% -2 -2 0.94 25% 1.5 .38 19% .37 68% .25 1.54 84% 100% 53% +29 +3 1.65 24% 2.3 .53 14% .24 80% .19
Dec
13		 Michigan St. B B- C- D+ B 33% 21% 46% B- B B A+ A A F A+ D- B A+ A+ F B- 41% 20% 39% D- C+ B- D C A+ D- F F
1.04 58% 33% 31% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.1 .26 13% .15 89% .13 1.10 44% 22% 53% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.2 .45 25% .40 86% .35
Dec
21		 Pittsburgh F D+ C+ F F 39% 20% 41% C F F+ F F D+ F F F D- A+ F F F 43% 12% 45% D F B+ D C+ D B A+ A-
0.71 53% 40% 20% -10 0 0.82 18% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11 1.23 41% 67% 52% +8 +1 1.22 30% 1.1 .33 14% .25 57% .14
Dec
29		 NC Central B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 10% 60% C+ A+ F F F B- F B D- C F C- C F 36% 30% 34% B+ F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.32 81% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 28% 0.8 .21 16% .23 77% .17 0.98 75% 38% 33% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.7 .71 34% .15 57% .09
Jan
3		 Illinois D+ F+ C+ F F 28% 14% 58% A D B A+ A- B+ A- D- B A+ C A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% B A+ A- A+ A+ B F D+ F
0.96 44% 38% 24% -13 0 0.77 29% 1.1 .33 10% .23 64% .15 1.08 63% 25% 24% -8 0 0.86 36% 0.9 .33 15% .49 82% .40
Jan
6		 Michigan B D- C F F+ 26% 26% 47% C+ D- A- A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% C A+ A+ D+ A+ B B+ C B+
1.01 43% 36% 16% -17 -2 0.64 33% 1.5 .49 14% .37 78% .29 1.04 61% 50% 26% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.4 .29 17% .32 74% .24
Jan
10		 Purdue A+ A+ C A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ C- A+ A+ B+ D+ A+ B- D- F C+ D C- 34% 17% 48% D D+ A+ F D+ F A A+ A+
1.27 76% 38% 42% +12 0 1.27 21% 2.2 .46 15% .18 90% .16 1.39 80% 40% 39% +12 0 1.26 26% 1.9 .48 4% .22 43% .09
Jan
14		 UCLA C- A- A+ F B- 36% 17% 48% B- B- D- F F C A- A+ A+ C A+ A C A+ 18% 18% 64% C A F F F A+ F F F
1.00 67% 71% 20% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.7 .15 20% .35 94% .33 1.18 43% 29% 36% -2 -1 0.95 42% 1.7 .73 23% .46 100% .46
Jan
18		 Maryland B A C A A 35% 17% 48% C A F C- F A+ A D B+ F C A F F 24% 14% 63% C+ F D- F F C- B C+ B
1.11 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 13% 1.0 .13 11% .36 67% .24 1.47 58% 29% 53% +17 0 1.35 41% 1.3 .55 17% .31 71% .22
Jan
22		 Wisconsin C- F B- F D 27% 33% 40% D- D- B- B B A+ A+ B- A F F A- F F 37% 10% 53% C- F D- A+ A D A+ B- A+
1.00 40% 44% 27% -7 -2 0.84 27% 1.1 .29 10% .36 74% .27 1.38 73% 33% 45% +14 +1 1.32 37% 0.7 .26 10% .23 73% .17
Jan
26		 Ohio St. A- F A+ A A 25% 23% 52% C+ A B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F F C F 27% 33% 41% A D- A+ B- A+ D C C+ C
1.14 45% 60% 39% +6 -1 1.11 36% 1.6 .56 26% .42 86% .36 1.23 77% 69% 35% +16 -2 1.29 19% 1.0 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Northwestern B- A- F B- B+ 50% 15% 35% A A- F A+ F B A- A+ A+ F F+ D- F F 42% 20% 38% D+ F D F F C+ A+ A A+
1.08 67% 14% 35% +2 +2 1.08 11% 1.3 .14 16% .35 85% .30 1.38 70% 45% 52% +17 0 1.36 33% 1.6 .52 13% .15 67% .10
Feb
1		 Minnesota A C- C- B- C+ 45% 22% 33% B+ B- A A+ A+ B+ F A+ D+ D+ F F A C+ 36% 5% 59% D- C C- F F B C+ F D
1.21 57% 36% 35% 0 0 1.02 38% 1.7 .63 16% .17 89% .15 1.18 81% 50% 27% +3 +2 1.11 32% 1.8 .56 19% .33 82% .27
Feb
5		 Michigan B+ A+ B- F C+ 37% 30% 33% B- B- D+ F D- A+ A+ A A+ F F+ B+ F F 46% 11% 43% C+ F F F F D A+ F B
0.97 65% 38% 11% -9 -1 0.81 21% 0.7 .14 7% .39 81% .32 1.54 73% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.39 48% 2.0 .96 13% .27 88% .24
Feb
8		 USC C+ C+ A+ B A 54% 13% 33% A A+ C+ B B- F C- F F+ B- C+ C- A+ A 44% 24% 32% C- A- C F F A- A+ C A
1.04 57% 71% 35% +5 +2 1.15 29% 1.0 .29 24% .27 60% .16 1.06 59% 42% 25% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.8 .65 21% .31 72% .23
Feb
11		 Washington C- A+ B+ A A+ 16% 57% 27% F B+ F A+ D+ D D- B D+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B- C+ B- B+ B- A+ A
0.96 75% 43% 38% +7 -6 1.04 15% 1.5 .22 18% .21 73% .15 0.92 64% 18% 33% -6 -3 0.85 34% 1.1 .37 18% .26 57% .15
Feb
14		 Oregon B C+ B- F C- 33% 29% 38% C- C- C+ B+ B- B+ A+ A A+ F+ C A+ F F 34% 10% 56% D+ F C+ B+ B A+ F F F
1.10 56% 43% 28% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.0 .30 14% .42 83% .35 1.26 57% 25% 57% +17 +1 1.39 35% 1.0 .35 23% .49 84% .41
Feb
18		 Rutgers C- A+ A+ F A 33% 26% 40% D+ A- F+ C+ D F A+ B- A+ F F F C F 42% 27% 31% D- F A F B B F+ F F
1.06 93% 64% 18% +8 -1 1.17 23% 1.0 .23 22% .41 77% .32 1.25 70% 62% 33% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .33 18% .41 87% .36
Feb
21		 Nebraska C+ B+ D F C+ 41% 25% 33% A- B- B- C- C+ C- A B- A D+ F C+ F+ F+ 25% 16% 58% A- D D F F+ B B+ C+ B+
0.92 67% 31% 24% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.8 .22 22% .31 71% .22 1.25 86% 33% 41% +12 0 1.25 30% 1.3 .39 16% .21 75% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 1.0 1.0 14th
15th 3.3 0.6 3.9 15th
16th 7.2 0.1 7.2 16th
17th 18.1 4.1 22.2 17th
18th 40.3 24.9 0.4 65.7 18th
Total 40.3 43.0 14.9 1.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15 1.7% 1.7
4-16 14.9% 14.9
3-17 43.0% 43.0
2-18 40.3% 40.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.7%
Lose Out 40.3%