Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.5 #105
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #110
Pace 69.5 #179
Improvement +2.8 #49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #91 B- B A- C B-
Defense #129 D+ D+ A- A C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.19 #141 +3.8 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #221 0.88 #40 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 38% #245 1.00 #198 -1.7 #245
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #116 +2.3 #115
Freethrows 16.8 #218 75% #110 12.6 #175
Second Chance 31.7% #153 1.19 #34 0.38 #73
Turnovers 13.7% #29
Total Offense +3.4 #91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.18 #203 +0.0 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #253 0.81 #274 +0.4 #164
Three Pointers 44% #89 1.09 #282 -3.4 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #271 -3.0 #271
Freethrows 12.6 #16 71% #133 9.0 #349
Second Chance 27.6% #81 1.28 #357 0.35 #260
Turnovers 19.7% #39
Total Defense +1.1 #129

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #91 0.6% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.1% #136 5.2% #277
Possession Length 16.5 #105 18.2 #316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.14 #83
Improvement -1.0 #252 +3.8 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.8 10.7
.500 or above 15.9% 45.6% 15.3%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 5.8% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.5% 12.3% 32.9%
First Four0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 11
Quad 22 - 63 - 17
Quad 32 - 15 - 18
Quad 48 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 282 Fairfield W 76 - 68 90%  -2  1 - 0 -2 -3 D+ D+ A +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 338 @New Haven W 87 - 43 88%  +18  2 - 0 +35 +24 C A+ A+ +17 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 193 Navy W 80 - 71 82%  +6  3 - 0 +4 +8 C- A+ A+ -3 D D A+
 Sat, Nov 15 217 La Salle W 83 - 69 76%  +11  4 - 0 +11 +17 A+ D+ A+ -5 D- F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 196 Harvard W 84 - 80 82%  +2  5 - 0 -1 +17 B A A+ -18 F F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 66 Providence L 65 - 77 34%  -3  5 - 1 -3 -7 F C C +4 A+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 258 Boston University W 96 - 87 88%  +12  6 - 1 +0 +25 A A+ A+ -23 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 285 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 90%  +21  7 - 1 +21 +1 B- A+ F +17 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 199 Campbell W 87 - 76 82%  +5  8 - 1 +6 +7 A F A+ -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 25 @Indiana L 72 - 113 10%  -28  8 - 2 0 - 1 -22 +4 B+ A- D -25 F F C
 Sat, Dec 13 14 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 16%  -1  8 - 3 0 - 2 +11 +11 B+ A A+ +0 C- C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 82 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 40%  -16  8 - 4 -27 -20 F F D- -9 F C D
 Mon, Dec 29 347 NC Central W 90 - 67 96%  +8  9 - 4 +8 +14 A+ F B -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 9 Illinois L 65 - 73 12%  -10  9 - 5 0 - 3 +9 +1 D A B+ +8 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 5%  -5  9 - 6 0 - 4 +22 +11 D A+ A+ +10 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 4 @Purdue L 65 - 86 2% 
 Wed, Jan 14 38 UCLA L 71 - 77 30% 
 Sun, Jan 18 107 @Maryland L 73 - 76 39% 
 Thu, Jan 22 43 Wisconsin L 76 - 80 35% 
 Mon, Jan 26 30 @Ohio St. L 70 - 83 12% 
 Thu, Jan 29 60 @Northwestern L 72 - 80 24% 
 Sun, Feb 1 76 Minnesota L 69 - 70 50% 
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 67 - 92 1% 
 Sun, Feb 8 46 USC L 76 - 80 37% 
 Wed, Feb 11 47 @Washington L 71 - 80 19% 
 Sat, Feb 14 65 @Oregon L 72 - 79 25% 
 Wed, Feb 18 131 Rutgers W 76 - 70 70% 
 Sat, Feb 21 23 @Nebraska L 67 - 81 10% 
 Sat, Feb 28 20 Iowa L 67 - 76 21% 
 Wed, Mar 4 30 Ohio St. L 73 - 80 27% 
 Sun, Mar 8 131 @Rutgers L 73 - 74 49% 
Totals 13 - 18 4 - 16 +4 +3 B- B A- +1 D+ D+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.3 1.9 1.4 0.1 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.5 0.8 0.0 6.9 13th
14th 0.3 3.0 5.9 2.2 0.1 11.5 14th
15th 0.2 2.9 7.6 4.4 0.4 0.0 15.5 15th
16th 0.1 2.2 8.8 5.9 0.8 0.0 17.9 16th
17th 0.2 2.7 8.9 6.9 1.3 0.0 20.1 17th
18th 1.0 4.4 7.7 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 19.3 18th
Total 1.0 4.6 10.6 16.3 20.0 18.1 13.8 8.6 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 35.4% 35.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 35.4%
10-10 0.7% 11.5% 11.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 11.5%
9-11 1.8% 2.5% 2.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.5%
8-12 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.2 0.1%
7-13 8.6% 8.6
6-14 13.8% 13.8
5-15 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 18.1
4-16 20.0% 20.0
3-17 16.3% 16.3
2-18 10.6% 10.6
1-19 4.6% 4.6
0-20 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 10.7 99.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%