Texas A&M
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#19
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#9
Pace66.1#236
Improvement+0.8#152

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#30
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebound+7.3#1
Layup/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#225
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement+1.6#97

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#10
First Shot+8.4#10
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks+6.5#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement-0.7#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.5% 4.7% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 13.3% 21.4% 7.5%
Top 4 Seed 57.2% 72.9% 46.0%
Top 6 Seed 87.0% 94.7% 81.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.4 3.7 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 98.6% 91.4%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Second Round83.0% 88.1% 79.4%
Sweet Sixteen44.4% 50.4% 40.1%
Elite Eight18.5% 22.1% 16.0%
Final Four7.5% 8.8% 6.6%
Championship Game3.1% 3.8% 2.7%
National Champion1.3% 1.6% 1.1%

Next Game: Missouri (Away) - 41.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 76 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 8
Quad 26 - 216 - 10
Quad 32 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 61-64 67%     0 - 1 +8.4 -4.1 +12.4
  Nov 08, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 87-55 99%     1 - 1 +17.7 +12.1 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2024 218   Lamar W 97-71 97%     2 - 1 +20.3 +20.2 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 25   Ohio St. W 78-64 64%     3 - 1 +26.2 +14.5 +12.3
  Nov 20, 2024 224   Southern W 71-54 97%     4 - 1 +11.1 +3.8 +8.4
  Nov 26, 2024 45   Oregon L 70-80 67%     4 - 2 +1.6 +3.9 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2024 28   Creighton W 77-73 56%     5 - 2 +18.4 +10.6 +7.7
  Nov 30, 2024 63   Rutgers W 81-77 75%     6 - 2 +12.9 +5.0 +7.5
  Dec 03, 2024 58   Wake Forest W 57-44 80%     7 - 2 +20.2 -2.7 +24.5
  Dec 08, 2024 12   Texas Tech W 72-67 44%     8 - 2 +22.6 +10.6 +12.3
  Dec 14, 2024 9   Purdue W 70-66 42%     9 - 2 +22.0 +9.1 +13.1
  Dec 20, 2024 290   Houston Christian W 77-45 98%     10 - 2 +22.4 +9.2 +17.6
  Dec 28, 2024 242   Abilene Christian W 92-54 97%     11 - 2 +30.7 +20.4 +10.8
  Jan 04, 2025 30   Texas W 80-60 66%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +31.6 +14.7 +17.4
  Jan 08, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma W 80-78 51%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +17.7 +21.1 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 5   Alabama L 88-94 45%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +11.2 +10.6 +1.2
  Jan 14, 2025 22   @ Kentucky L 69-81 41%     13 - 4 2 - 2 +6.2 -1.0 +7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 71   LSU W 68-57 84%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +16.3 +2.2 +14.7
  Jan 22, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 63-62 46%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +18.1 -3.3 +21.3
  Jan 25, 2025 30   @ Texas L 69-70 47%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +15.6 +13.8 +1.6
  Jan 28, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 75-68 69%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +17.7 +12.8 +5.6
  Feb 01, 2025 79   @ South Carolina W 76-72 72%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +13.8 +15.7 -1.6
  Feb 08, 2025 23   @ Missouri L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 11, 2025 37   Georgia W 71-65 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 43   Arkansas W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   @ Mississippi St. W 72-71 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   Tennessee L 64-65 48%    
  Feb 26, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 78-69 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Florida L 71-77 26%    
  Mar 04, 2025 1   Auburn L 72-77 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 71   @ LSU W 74-68 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.1 5.4 2.5 0.2 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 9.6 5.5 0.4 17.6 3rd
4th 0.7 7.9 7.7 0.6 16.8 4th
5th 0.1 4.3 10.0 1.8 0.0 16.2 5th
6th 1.3 8.7 4.7 0.2 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 5.3 0.4 9.8 7th
8th 0.7 4.0 1.2 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 0.2 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.5 11.3 20.4 25.3 21.3 11.7 3.7 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 66.7% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
14-4 21.6% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.7% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.7% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 2.1 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 100.0%
13-5 11.7% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 2.6 0.9 4.4 4.8 1.5 0.2 100.0%
12-6 21.3% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.4 0.4 2.9 8.6 7.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 25.3% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 4.2 0.1 1.0 6.0 8.7 6.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 20.4% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.2 0.1 1.5 4.0 6.1 5.7 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.3% 100.0% 1.1% 98.9% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.3 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
8-10 4.5% 99.6% 0.9% 98.7% 7.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.6%
7-11 1.0% 93.3% 1.0% 92.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 93.2%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 5.0% 94.8% 4.4 2.5 10.7 21.7 22.2 17.4 12.5 7.4 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 52.2 43.5 4.3