UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.7 37
Results Rating +14.6 36
Pace 63.7 312
Improvement +1.5 124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense B+ 34 B B+ B+ B D
Defense B 49 B B- B+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 270 B 63% 71 +0.1 172
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 91 C+ 40% 107 +3.4 38
Three Pointers 36% 279 A 41% 8 +1.2 143
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.2 324 A- +5.9 25
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 55
Second Chance B- 33.4% 91 B+ 1.17 29 B+ 0.39 44
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 25
Freethrows B- 0.33 84 B 76% 47 B 0.26 57
Total Offense B+ +8.5 34

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 56% 61 B- 9.1% 83
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 27 B 2.8% 36
Three Pointers B 89% 64 B+ 0.2% 26
Total B 62% 53 B+ 4.1% 33

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 330 C 58% 180 -3.8 58
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 160 C 38% 202 +0.2 209
Three Pointers 47% 31 A- 29% 19 -0.3 171
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.5 88 B -3.3 56
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 56
Second Chance C+ 29.4% 141 B 0.95 64 B- 0.28 82
Turnovers B+ 19.6% 37
Freethrows C+ 0.29 146 C- 73% 227 C+ 0.21 153
Total Defense B +5.3 49

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 313 C 11.4% 153
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 332 B- 6.8% 74
Three Pointers B- 80% 63 C+ 1.3% 91
Total D+ 60% 277 C 5.7% 165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 148 19.0 357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 141 0.13 49
Improvement +1.8 #105 -0.3 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 44 37 28
Results Rating Rank 47 36 25
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 14 - 6
Conference Finish 9 7 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 7% 8% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85% 89% 75%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85% 89% 75%
Average Seed 8.6 8.4 9.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 6% 12%
First Round82% 86% 70%
Second Round40% 43% 31%
Sweet Sixteen8% 9% 6%
Elite Eight3% 3% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 34 - 013 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 186 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 95% +7  84% 1 - 0 C +1 C- -1 C+ D+ A B- +2 F A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 281 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 98% +10  87% 2 - 0 C +1 C+ +3 D+ A- C C -0 A- F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 317 West Georgia W 83 - 62 98% +11  97% 3 - 0 B +8 B +7 B C+ D B- +3 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 14 3 Arizona L 65 - 69 16% +1  60% 3 - 1 A +21 B- +5 A+ D F A+ +15 A C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 276 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 97% +19  99% 4 - 1 A +22 D+ -4 D+ A F A+ +25 A+ B B
 Fri, Nov 21 277 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 97% +24  99% 5 - 1 A+ +30 A- +10 A+ A+ C- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 70 California L 72 - 80 70% -2  43% 5 - 2 C +0 C -0 C- B+ C+ C+ +1 C- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 48 @Washington W 82 - 80 48% +3  65% 6 - 2 1 - 0 A- +16 A+ +20 A+ A+ A+ D+ -3 D+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 89 Oregon W 74 - 63 83% +8  92% 7 - 2 2 - 0 B+ +14 A +12 B+ A B B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 12 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 30% -2  32% 7 - 3 B +9 A- +11 A+ C A+ C- -3 D A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 60 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 77% +9  98% 8 - 3 A +19 A+ +15 A D+ A+ B- +3 A+ C C
 Fri, Dec 19 231 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 96% +7  67% 9 - 3 B+ +14 A+ +16 A+ D A+ D+ -5 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 283 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 98% +14  88% 10 - 3 A +22 B+ +8 C A+ B A +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 26 @Iowa L 61 - 74 32% -10  1% 10 - 4 2 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 B- F B+ B- +2 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 30 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 34% -12  1% 10 - 5 2 - 2 B +10 C+ +2 C- B+ B A- +8 B C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 104 Maryland W 67 - 55 87% +9  80% 11 - 5 3 - 2 B+ +13 D+ -3 F+ C A+ A+ +18 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 115 @Penn St. W 71 - 60 77% +3  72% 12 - 5 4 - 2 A- +17 B+ +8 F+ A+ F A +11 B A+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 36 @Ohio St. L 74 - 86 36% -9  0% 12 - 6 4 - 3 B- +5 A +14 B B- A+ F -10 B F C+
 Tue, Jan 20 7 Purdue W 69 - 67 32% -2  24% 13 - 6 5 - 3 A +20 A +13 A+ F C+ A- +7 A+ D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 69 Northwestern W 71 - 64 79% +9  90% 14 - 6 6 - 3 B+ +12 B- +4 A C- B+ A +9 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 89 @Oregon W 73 - 57 66% +11  94% 15 - 6 7 - 3 A+ +25 A +13 D- A+ A+ A+ +15 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 38 Indiana L 97 - 98 2OT 62% +0  53% 15 - 7 7 - 4 B +10 B- +5 D+ A+ A B +5 A+ C+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 111 Rutgers W 98 - 66 89% +14  92% 16 - 7 8 - 4 A+ +32 A+ +33 A+ A+ A+ B- +3 C- A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 48 Washington W 77 - 73 70% -0  38% 17 - 7 9 - 4 B+ +12 A- +10 C A+ A+ B- +2 C+ D+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 56 - 86 8% -11  0% 17 - 8 9 - 5 C -0 C +1 C- A+ D D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 17 10 @Michigan St. L 59 - 82 21% -17  8% 17 - 9 9 - 6 C -1 C +0 C+ C+ C+ C- -3 F C- A-
 Sat, Feb 21 5 Illinois W 95 - 94 OT 29% -5  28% 18 - 9 10 - 6 A +21 A+ +21 A+ B- A+ C -1 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 24 56 USC W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 59 @Minnesota W 69 - 67 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 13 Nebraska L 70 - 72 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 56 @USC W 76 - 75 53%
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14 B+ +8 A+ A- D B +5 A B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B C+ A A- 36% 45% 36% D B B- B+ B+ B+ B- B B B C C A- B 32% 21% 47% B- B C+ B B- B+ C+ C- C+
1.21 63% 40% 41% +6 -1 1.11 33% 1.2 .39 14% .33 76% .26 1.01 58% 38% 29% -3 0 0.94 29% 0.9 .28 20% .29 73% .24
Nov
3
Eastern Washington C- B- A- C+ B 33% 28% 40% F C+ C D- D+ A F F F B- F D B+ F 38% 15% 48% D F A+ B A+ A- B A+ A-
1.13 63% 50% 35% +5 -1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 11% .16 60% .10 1.05 89% 43% 30% +10 +1 1.23 21% 1.0 .21 23% .26 64% .16
Nov
7
Pepperdine C+ C A+ F D+ 38% 16% 47% C- D+ A- B- A- C A+ B- A+ C B B A+ A+ 35% 13% 52% D- A- F F F C+ B F D
1.18 59% 71% 24% -2 +1 1.00 41% 1.2 .47 16% .49 73% .36 1.00 50% 33% 25% -10 +1 0.83 42% 1.1 .47 19% .26 100% .26
Nov
10
West Georgia B B- A+ B+ A- 44% 26% 30% D- B A+ F C+ D A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D F F 18% 32% 50% B- F B B- B A+ B A+ A+
1.27 63% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 48% 0.7 .33 17% .48 88% .42 0.95 25% 43% 50% +8 -3 1.11 26% 1.0 .26 26% .23 45% .10
Nov
14
Arizona B- B- C- A+ A+ 18% 51% 31% F A+ B F D F F A- F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 17% 35% F A B D- C A+ A C A
0.96 56% 35% 56% +8 -5 1.08 27% 0.4 .12 24% .16 75% .12 1.02 68% 25% 25% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.1 .40 22% .29 73% .21
Nov
18
Sacramento St. D+ B- C- D- C- 42% 24% 34% D- D+ C A+ A F A+ F+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% B A+ C- A B B F A+ F+
1.12 62% 42% 29% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 21% .43 67% .29 0.68 42% 23% 9% -26 -2 0.47 28% 0.9 .26 18% .52 63% .33
Nov
21
Presbyterian A- A+ F A+ A+ 61% 15% 24% B+ A+ D A+ A+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ F A A+ A+ 26% 33% 41% A A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C+ B-
1.28 75% 29% 45% +13 +2 1.33 26% 1.8 .48 16% .43 67% .28 0.68 75% 27% 11% -14 -2 0.70 23% 0.6 .14 25% .30 67% .20
Nov
25
California C C D- D C 33% 29% 38% F+ C- B B B+ C+ A F B- C+ A+ B F C- 38% 23% 38% C- C- A A+ A+ D- C- C C-
1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -1 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22 1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27
Dec
3
Washington A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 20% 39% 41% F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ F+ F+ C+ D+ 34% 24% 42% C- D+ F F F A+ B+ C+ B+
1.26 78% 44% 47% +15 -4 1.24 30% 1.6 .48 11% .41 71% .29 1.23 71% 50% 33% +7 -1 1.14 52% 1.4 .74 23% .24 75% .18
Dec
6
Oregon A C+ C A+ A 20% 45% 34% F B+ A+ C A B A+ A+ A+ B A+ A A A+ 27% 16% 57% B A+ F D F C+ F B- F
1.22 56% 40% 47% +7 -4 1.07 47% 0.9 .41 15% .41 86% .35 1.04 33% 29% 28% -13 0 0.75 43% 1.3 .54 18% .48 71% .34
Dec
13
Gonzaga A- A- B- A+ A+ 30% 38% 32% D- A+ D+ B+ C A+ B+ A+ A C- F C F F+ 28% 41% 30% A+ D B- A+ A+ D+ F A F
1.10 64% 39% 47% +8 -3 1.13 20% 1.0 .20 15% .34 79% .27 1.25 85% 42% 43% +13 -3 1.22 34% 0.5 .17 12% .56 63% .35
Dec
17
Arizona St. A+ F F A+ A 31% 24% 44% C- A C D- D+ A+ B+ A A B- F F+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% B- A+ C+ D+ C C F F F
1.27 41% 23% 58% +7 -1 1.15 31% 0.9 .29 11% .35 82% .29 1.09 72% 45% 9% -10 0 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 16% .43 96% .42
Dec
19
Cal Poly A+ A D A+ A+ 51% 5% 44% A A+ F A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F 34% 2% 64% D+ F C+ C- C A+ F F F
1.37 72% 33% 44% +14 +3 1.35 16% 1.8 .28 10% .41 90% .37 1.11 69% 0% 43% +12 +2 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 31% .40 95% .38
Dec
23
UC Riverside B+ A- C+ D+ C+ 33% 33% 33% F C C+ A+ A+ B B A+ A+ A F+ C- A+ C- 45% 28% 28% B- C C- A+ A+ A+ F B F
1.24 68% 42% 32% +4 -2 1.05 32% 1.5 .47 13% .38 85% .32 0.83 67% 38% 23% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.1 .03 28% .41 70% .29
Jan
3
Iowa C+ C A+ F B 40% 33% 27% D- B- A F F B+ F F+ F B- F F C- F 16% 26% 58% A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.98 58% 56% 23% +2 -2 1.02 36% 0.3 .12 19% .24 67% .16 1.19 83% 80% 36% +17 -2 1.32 42% 0.5 .19 23% .54 85% .46
Jan
6
Wisconsin C+ A+ B F C 32% 38% 30% F+ C- C+ A B+ B A+ F+ A- A- A+ F C+ B- 27% 17% 56% A- B A+ F C+ C- F B- F+
1.01 82% 45% 6% -2 -3 0.92 26% 1.2 .31 14% .37 65% .24 1.12 46% 75% 33% +2 0 1.06 19% 1.8 .34 11% .43 74% .32
Jan
10
Maryland D+ C C- F D- 35% 30% 35% F+ F+ F A+ C A+ A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% B+ A+ F D- F B A- A+ A+
1.02 56% 36% 25% -6 -2 0.87 15% 1.8 .27 9% .45 67% .30 0.84 50% 18% 9% -25 -1 0.50 45% 1.2 .55 20% .29 60% .17
Jan
14
Penn St. B+ F F C+ D- 18% 18% 64% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D F A+ B+ 36% 17% 48% C+ B A A+ A+ A D+ F F
1.18 43% 29% 36% -2 -1 0.95 42% 1.7 .73 23% .46 100% .46 1.00 67% 71% 20% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.7 .15 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
17
Ohio St. A A D+ A+ A 17% 47% 36% F B B+ D+ B- A+ B+ A- A- F F D- B+ B- 23% 34% 43% A+ B F F F C+ F F+ F
1.18 67% 36% 42% +5 -5 1.02 36% 0.9 .33 8% .33 79% .26 1.38 82% 50% 30% +7 -3 1.11 48% 1.4 .68 16% .48 84% .40
Jan
20
Purdue A A+ A- A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% C+ A+ D+ F F C+ F C F A- A+ F A A+ 28% 21% 51% C+ A+ D+ C- D+ B- A+ F A+
1.18 87% 46% 45% +18 -1 1.35 19% 0.5 .10 17% .06 67% .04 1.15 46% 60% 29% -2 -1 0.96 39% 1.2 .48 14% .14 86% .12
Jan
24
Northwestern B- B A- A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% D- A D- A C- B+ A+ F C A A- B- C A- 33% 23% 44% B- A- A- A+ A+ B- D+ F F+
1.11 63% 44% 41% +7 -2 1.12 25% 1.1 .28 16% .39 52% .20 1.00 50% 36% 33% -4 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .15 14% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28
Oregon A C+ F C D 29% 41% 31% F D- B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A- 31% 12% 57% C B+ A A+ A+ C- A+ A A+
1.19 57% 25% 33% -6 -3 0.84 32% 1.6 .51 6% .40 87% .35 0.93 56% 17% 31% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.5 .13 16% .17 67% .12
Jan
31
Indiana B- F C C D+ 33% 38% 29% D- D+ C A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ B C A+ B A+ 33% 16% 51% B+ A+ A+ F C+ D+ F D F
1.09 38% 38% 33% -7 -3 0.83 27% 1.8 .50 11% .43 88% .38 1.11 62% 30% 31% -2 0 0.98 19% 1.6 .31 12% .49 82% .40
Feb
3
Rutgers A+ A- A- A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A B- B F B- D+ 26% 33% 41% B C- B- A+ A C- D+ A+ B+
1.55 67% 44% 61% +19 -2 1.35 34% 1.4 .48 3% .29 89% .26 1.05 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.9 .28 14% .37 55% .20
Feb
7
Washington A- F D A+ C+ 34% 34% 32% C- C A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F B+ B- 42% 23% 35% D- C+ C- D+ D+ A D- A+ C-
1.17 38% 31% 47% -3 -2 0.91 39% 1.1 .42 11% .49 79% .39 1.11 60% 55% 29% +2 0 1.06 38% 1.2 .45 20% .34 67% .23
Feb
14
Michigan C A F F C- 28% 35% 37% C- C- A A+ A+ D C+ F D D+ F F C- F 51% 13% 36% C+ F A+ A A+ C- F A D
0.87 62% 19% 24% -12 -3 0.74 36% 1.4 .50 20% .24 50% .12 1.34 83% 50% 35% +15 +2 1.36 30% 1.1 .35 14% .47 65% .31
Feb
17
Michigan St. C F A- B B- 29% 27% 43% D+ C+ B D+ C+ C+ D+ B C- C- F B- F F 23% 29% 48% A- F A+ F C- A- A+ F A
0.90 33% 43% 36% -4 -2 0.90 24% 0.7 .16 17% .22 75% .17 1.25 73% 36% 52% +16 -2 1.29 31% 1.5 .46 21% .21 91% .19
Feb
21
Illinois A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% A A+ C+ B B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A A+ 30% 7% 63% C- A+ F D- F C F C- F
1.30 61% 50% 46% +11 0 1.24 26% 1.0 .26 7% .28 84% .24 1.29 71% 0% 29% -4 +1 0.96 51% 1.4 .69 12% .49 81% .39




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 0.9 3rd
4th 0.6 4.5 5.1 4th
5th 0.5 9.0 4.4 13.8 5th
6th 0.2 8.9 16.4 0.7 26.2 6th
7th 0.0 5.1 21.4 5.0 31.4 7th
8th 0.7 10.4 4.8 0.0 15.9 8th
9th 2.2 3.3 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.8 0.1 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 3.8 18.9 35.7 31.0 10.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 10.5% 98.3% 1.7% 96.6% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.3%
13-7 31.0% 94.7% 0.9% 93.8% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.6 9.8 7.2 2.7 0.4 1.6 94.7%
12-8 35.7% 86.0% 0.4% 85.6% 9.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.9 9.7 8.4 2.8 0.0 5.0 85.9%
11-9 18.9% 71.2% 0.3% 70.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 5.0 4.1 0.0 5.5 71.1%
10-10 3.8% 39.1% 0.1% 39.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.3 39.0%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 85.4% 0.7% 84.7% 8.6 14.6 85.3%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 4.3 15.1 47.2 34.0 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 5.9 4.8 21.8 54.0 15.3 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 99.4% 6.4 0.5 0.6 11.7 40.6 35.4 9.2 1.2 0.1
Lose Out 1.7% 21.2% 11.1 0.6 17.1 3.5