UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.1 #38
Expected Predictive Rating +10.4 #58
Pace 65.1 #290
Improvement -0.1 #187

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #34 B+ B- B B- F
Defense #54 B- B- A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.32 #40 +0.7 #149
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #31 0.83 #88 +4.8 #15
Three Pointers 35% #302 1.19 #10 +0.0 #176
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #48 +5.5 #47
Freethrows 18.9 #99 75% #114 14.2 #91
Second Chance 34.5% #81 1.05 #176 0.36 #92
Turnovers 14.9% #77
Total Offense +7.9 #34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #333 1.23 #268 +3.2 #77
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.79 #228 -0.6 #231
Three Pointers 48% #33 0.89 #48 -0.5 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #109 +2.1 #109
Freethrows 17.9 #211 73% #186 13.0 #147
Second Chance 29.2% #123 1.00 #137 0.29 #119
Turnovers 20.6% #18
Total Defense +5.2 #54

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 -1.2% #78
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.2% #17 -3.0% #125
Possession Length 16.9 #144 19.0 #357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #134 0.14 #89
Improvement +1.1 #111 -1.1 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 8.7% 9.6% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.4% 57.2% 37.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.1% 56.8% 37.1%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 9.1
.500 or above 91.6% 93.9% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.1% 71.2% 41.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four8.9% 8.9% 9.0%
First Round50.4% 53.3% 32.7%
Second Round27.5% 29.2% 16.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.5% 8.1% 3.3%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.7% 1.2%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 255 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 97%  +7  1 - 0 -2 -1 D D+ A+ -2 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 274 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 97%  +10  2 - 0 +1 +7 C A+ C+ -5 B F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 297 West Georgia W 83 - 62 98%  +11  3 - 0 +10 +10 A- C D- +2 F A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 2 Arizona L 65 - 69 16%  +1  3 - 1 +20 +7 A+ D- F +13 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 296 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 98%  +19  4 - 1 +20 +1 C A+ F +19 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 21 289 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 97%  +24  5 - 1 +30 +13 A+ A+ C- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 84 California L 72 - 80 72%  -2  5 - 2 -1 +2 C- B+ B- -3 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 47 @Washington W 82 - 80 47%  +3  6 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +22 A+ A+ A+ -6 D- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 65 Oregon W 74 - 63 76%  +8  7 - 2 2 - 0 +17 +15 A A+ C +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 10 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 25%  -2  7 - 3 +10 +12 A+ C A+ -3 C A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 88 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 81%  +9  8 - 3 +17 +16 A C- A+ +0 A+ D C
 Fri, Dec 19 253 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 97%  +7  9 - 3 +13 +19 A+ D A+ -9 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 295 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 98%  +14  10 - 3 +21 +9 C- A+ C +9 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 20 @Iowa L 61 - 74 27%  -10  10 - 4 2 - 1 +6 +6 B- F A- -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 43 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 43%  -12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +7 +5 C B B+ +2 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 107 Maryland W 78 - 66 86% 
 Wed, Jan 14 105 @Penn St. W 77 - 71 70% 
 Sat, Jan 17 30 @Ohio St. L 73 - 77 35% 
 Tue, Jan 20 4 Purdue L 69 - 76 26% 
 Sat, Jan 24 60 Northwestern W 77 - 70 75% 
 Wed, Jan 28 65 @Oregon W 74 - 73 54% 
 Sat, Jan 31 25 Indiana W 75 - 74 52% 
 Tue, Feb 3 131 Rutgers W 78 - 64 91% 
 Sat, Feb 7 47 Washington W 76 - 71 68% 
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 69 - 85 6% 
 Tue, Feb 17 14 @Michigan St. L 65 - 73 23% 
 Sat, Feb 21 9 Illinois L 72 - 76 35% 
 Tue, Feb 24 46 USC W 78 - 73 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 76 @Minnesota W 69 - 67 59% 
 Tue, Mar 3 23 Nebraska W 73 - 72 52% 
 Sat, Mar 7 46 @USC L 75 - 76 46% 
Totals 18 - 13 10 - 10 +13 +8 B+ B- B +5 B- B- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.0 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 5.8 2.4 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 6.3 4.2 0.4 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.2 6.0 1.0 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 6.5 2.0 0.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 5.8 3.0 0.2 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.4 4.0 0.5 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 13th
14th 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.6 5.3 9.4 14.5 17.0 17.4 14.7 9.9 5.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 44.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 9.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.3% 99.8% 4.7% 95.1% 5.4 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 5.1% 99.2% 2.7% 96.5% 6.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-7 9.9% 96.6% 1.6% 95.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 96.5%
12-8 14.7% 88.7% 0.8% 87.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 3.6 2.1 0.5 1.7 88.6%
11-9 17.4% 73.5% 0.3% 73.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.6 4.3 1.8 4.6 73.4%
10-10 17.0% 47.6% 0.3% 47.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 3.4 0.1 8.9 47.5%
9-11 14.5% 17.6% 0.1% 17.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.1 12.0 17.5%
8-12 9.4% 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.1 3.1%
7-13 5.3% 5.3
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 54.4% 0.7% 53.7% 8.4 45.6 54.1%