Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.5#50
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#36
Pace75.0#46
Improvement+2.5#52

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#37
First Shot+5.6#47
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#106
Layup/Dunks+5.1#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#179
Freethrows+1.6#89
Improvement+1.4#87

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#85
First Shot+2.7#95
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#99
Layups/Dunks+0.4#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows+1.1#99
Improvement+1.2#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.6% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 11.9% 11.9% 4.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.7% 46.8% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.4% 46.6% 26.6%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 8.8
.500 or above 90.2% 90.4% 68.5%
.500 or above in Conference 23.3% 23.4% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 16.2% 26.7%
First Four8.5% 8.5% 6.3%
First Round42.3% 42.5% 22.8%
Second Round21.9% 22.0% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.1% 7.2% 2.4%
Elite Eight2.4% 2.5% 1.1%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +21.9 +18.0 +2.9
  Nov 10, 2024 270   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 95%     2 - 0 +0.2 +5.4 -5.6
  Nov 13, 2024 128   California W 85-69 86%     3 - 0 +14.9 +2.2 +11.4
  Nov 16, 2024 309   Jackson St. W 94-81 97%     4 - 0 +1.8 +15.3 -14.1
  Nov 21, 2024 60   Nevada W 73-71 55%     5 - 0 +11.3 +6.3 +5.1
  Nov 22, 2024 115   Seton Hall W 76-60 77%     6 - 0 +18.9 +13.6 +6.1
  Nov 24, 2024 80   Drake L 70-81 62%     6 - 1 -3.7 +0.4 -4.0
  Nov 29, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +18.5 +5.7 +12.3
  Dec 04, 2024 138   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 72%     8 - 1 +20.3 +13.5 +7.6
  Dec 08, 2024 66   TCU W 83-74 60%     9 - 1 +17.0 +13.3 +3.2
  Dec 18, 2024 354   The Citadel W 105-53 98%     10 - 1 +36.3 +32.3 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 283   Austin Peay W 85-55 96%     11 - 1 +20.4 +7.6 +11.7
  Dec 30, 2024 343   New Orleans W 92-67 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 56   @ LSU L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 07, 2025 24   Mississippi St. L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 54   @ Missouri L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 62   South Carolina W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Tennessee L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 82-92 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 16   Kentucky L 84-86 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   @ Oklahoma L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 7   @ Florida L 76-88 14%    
  Feb 08, 2025 33   Texas W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 1   Auburn L 77-87 18%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 67-80 13%    
  Feb 19, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 81-89 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 28   Mississippi W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M L 71-78 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   Missouri W 82-78 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 31   Arkansas W 80-79 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 36   @ Georgia L 74-79 34%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.5 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.6 1.4 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.4 4.1 3.7 0.2 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 5.6 1.2 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 5.2 3.4 0.2 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.3 0.8 0.0 10.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.4 2.1 0.1 10.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.4 15th
16th 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 9.0 16th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.7 6.0 9.8 13.5 15.3 15.3 13.1 9.8 6.7 3.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 57.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.9% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.6% 99.9% 2.4% 97.5% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.7% 99.5% 1.4% 98.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
9-9 9.8% 97.3% 0.4% 96.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.3%
8-10 13.1% 85.5% 0.4% 85.1% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.3 3.0 1.3 0.0 1.9 85.5%
7-11 15.3% 57.7% 0.1% 57.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 3.7 0.1 6.4 57.7%
6-12 15.3% 21.2% 0.0% 21.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 0.3 12.1 21.2%
5-13 13.5% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.1 2.7%
4-14 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 9.8 0.0%
3-15 6.0% 6.0
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 46.7% 0.5% 46.2% 8.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.5 4.9 5.9 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.6 0.6 53.3 46.4%