Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +20.4 #7
Expected Predictive Rating +26.5 #8
Pace 75.1 #45
Improvement -0.1 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #7 A+ B+ A+ B C+
Defense #14 A+ A B F A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #152 1.41 #6 +5.4 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #239 0.77 #154 -0.9 #222
Three Pointers 43% #142 1.19 #11 +5.0 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #11 +9.4 #11
Freethrows 18.6 #121 77% #54 14.2 #87
Second Chance 32.9% #120 1.20 #32 0.39 #55
Turnovers 12.9% #13
Total Offense +11.5 #7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 1.05 #57 +4.9 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #47 0.73 #143 -1.6 #289
Three Pointers 41% #186 0.81 #9 +4.1 #44
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #19 +7.4 #19
Freethrows 21.3 #335 74% #237 15.7 #33
Second Chance 24.0% #15 0.96 #80 0.23 #21
Turnovers 18.9% #61
Total Defense +8.9 #14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #130 -2.1% #35
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.5% #6 -12.7% #15
Possession Length 15.5 #39 17.6 #243
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #42 0.10 #19
Improvement -2.2 #312 +2.1 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.8% 5.2% 2.0%
#1 Seed 26.3% 28.1% 15.0%
Top 2 Seed 63.5% 66.2% 46.4%
Top 4 Seed 95.0% 96.0% 88.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.7% 98.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.3% 95.9%
Conference Champion 52.2% 55.4% 32.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round96.7% 97.1% 94.5%
Sweet Sixteen68.5% 69.7% 61.3%
Elite Eight39.3% 40.6% 31.6%
Final Four19.3% 20.2% 13.6%
Championship Game9.0% 9.5% 5.5%
National Champion4.1% 4.4% 2.5%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b9 - 213 - 4
Quad 27 - 120 - 5
Quad 32 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 177 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 98%  +29  1 - 0 +40 +24 A+ F A+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 50 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 74%  +12  2 - 0 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -6 D- B- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 254 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 99%  +19  3 - 0 +22 +9 A+ F C +12 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99%  +16  4 - 0 +16 +17 C A+ A+ -3 B B+ C-
 Thu, Nov 20 335 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 100%  +24  5 - 0 +21 +24 A A+ A- -5 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 155 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 96%  +6  6 - 0 +5 -1 C C- F +5 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 49 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 82%  +10  7 - 0 +26 +15 A+ C F +10 A+ B- B
 Fri, Nov 28 41 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 77%  +13  8 - 0 +37 +26 A+ A+ A+ +11 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 28 SMU W 88 - 69 80%  +9  9 - 0 +30 +21 A+ C A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 261 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 99%  +15  10 - 0 +2 +0 F A+ C +1 B+ B- C
 Wed, Dec 17 78 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 82%  +3  11 - 0 +18 -2 F D+ F +18 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 62 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 79%  +19  12 - 0 +43 +28 A+ C- A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 338 New Haven W 96 - 53 100%  +24  13 - 0 +28 +21 A+ B+ A +8 A- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 72 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 81%  +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +23 +21 A+ B- A+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 13 Alabama W 96 - 90 69%  +5  15 - 0 2 - 0 +21 +12 C+ A- A+ +9 A+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 10 42 LSU W 85 - 74 86% 
 Wed, Jan 14 45 @Texas W 85 - 79 72% 
 Sat, Jan 17 12 Florida W 82 - 77 68% 
 Tue, Jan 20 19 @Arkansas W 86 - 85 54% 
 Sat, Jan 24 55 @Mississippi St. W 83 - 75 77% 
 Tue, Jan 27 27 Kentucky W 83 - 75 78% 
 Sat, Jan 31 71 @Mississippi W 81 - 72 80% 
 Sat, Feb 7 48 Oklahoma W 86 - 73 88% 
 Tue, Feb 10 33 @Auburn W 84 - 81 62% 
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Texas A&M W 90 - 79 84% 
 Wed, Feb 18 51 @Missouri W 84 - 77 73% 
 Sat, Feb 21 16 Tennessee W 79 - 73 70% 
 Wed, Feb 25 24 Georgia W 93 - 85 75% 
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Kentucky W 80 - 78 60% 
 Wed, Mar 4 71 Mississippi W 84 - 69 92% 
 Sat, Mar 7 16 @Tennessee L 76 - 77 49% 
Totals 27 - 4 14 - 4 +20 +11 A+ B+ A+ +9 A+ A B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.4 11.8 15.7 12.0 6.1 1.6 52.2 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 7.8 6.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.6 2.9 0.6 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.7 12.0 16.5 18.9 17.6 12.3 6.1 1.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 99.8% 6.1    6.0 0.1
16-2 98.0% 12.0    11.1 0.9 0.0
15-3 89.3% 15.7    11.8 3.6 0.3
14-4 62.4% 11.8    5.7 4.7 1.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 26.8% 4.4    0.9 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.2% 52.2 37.1 11.2 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 6.1% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.3 4.3 1.7 0.1 100.0%
16-2 12.3% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.5 6.9 5.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 17.6% 100.0% 32.8% 67.2% 1.7 6.9 8.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 18.9% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.0 4.5 9.7 4.4 0.4 100.0%
13-5 16.5% 100.0% 24.1% 75.9% 2.4 2.0 7.4 5.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 12.0% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 2.9 0.5 3.1 5.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.7% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.5 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
10-8 4.2% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 4.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 2.1% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.9% 98.3% 4.1% 94.2% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
7-11 0.2% 95.8% 2.1% 93.8% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.7%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 26.8% 73.1% 2.3 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.2 83.3 16.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 82.0 18.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 62.7 35.6 1.7