Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.6 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +20.3 #11
Pace 73.7 #54
Improvement -3.5 #323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #16 A- B- A- B- C+
Defense #17 A- B+ B D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #190 1.39 #8 +4.1 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #247 0.82 #80 -0.7 #217
Three Pointers 45% #106 1.10 #69 +3.8 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #23 +7.2 #23
Freethrows 0.31 #150 78% #15 0.24 #92
Second Chance 32.3% #136 1.15 #45 0.37 #69
Turnovers 12.9% #15
Total Offense +10.3 #16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.05 #54 +4.7 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #38 0.73 #133 -1.9 #318
Three Pointers 40% #209 0.84 #11 +4.0 #38
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #20 +6.8 #21
Freethrows 0.34 #290 75% #314 0.25 #306
Second Chance 25.8% #33 0.95 #73 0.24 #32
Turnovers 19.5% #43
Total Defense +8.3 #17

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #137 -2.2% #29
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.2% #16 -11.4% #23
Possession Length 15.3 #28 17.8 #270
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #45 0.10 #22
Improvement -4.0 #345 +0.6 #152

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 3.0% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 13.9% 15.2% 5.0%
Top 4 Seed 65.2% 68.0% 46.2%
Top 6 Seed 94.1% 95.4% 85.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.0 3.9 4.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.4% 94.6%
Conference Champion 14.1% 15.7% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round90.3% 91.0% 85.8%
Sweet Sixteen52.4% 53.5% 45.1%
Elite Eight23.1% 23.8% 18.1%
Final Four10.4% 10.7% 8.2%
Championship Game4.1% 4.3% 3.1%
National Champion1.7% 1.8% 0.9%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 19 - 6
Quad 29 - 118 - 7
Quad 33 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 178 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 97% +29  1 - 0 +40 +23 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 44 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 65% +12  2 - 0 +27 +32 A+ A+ A+ -6 D B- C+
 Wed, Nov 12 265 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 99% +19  3 - 0 +21 +8 A- F+ C+ +12 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 331 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99% +14  4 - 0 +15 +18 C- A+ A+ -4 C B+ C-
 Thu, Nov 20 309 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 99% +24  5 - 0 +23 +23 A- A+ B+ -2 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 156 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 95% +6  6 - 0 +5 +1 C+ C- D- +3 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 50 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 78% +10  7 - 0 +25 +13 A+ C F +11 A+ B- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 42 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 74% +13  8 - 0 +37 +26 A+ A+ A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 39 SMU W 88 - 69 78% +9  9 - 0 +29 +21 A+ C A+ +9 A+ F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 219 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 98% +15  10 - 0 +5 +1 F A+ C+ +3 A- C C
 Wed, Dec 17 96 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 83% +3  11 - 0 +15 -2 D- D+ D- +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 75 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 77% +19  12 - 0 +42 +27 A+ D+ A +14 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 334 New Haven W 96 - 53 99% +24  13 - 0 +29 +21 A+ B+ B+ +9 A- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 91 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 82% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +21 +21 A+ B- A +1 B+ B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 20 Alabama W 96 - 90 66% +5  15 - 0 2 - 0 +20 +12 B- B+ A+ +8 A+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 10 49 LSU W 84 - 73 83% +11  16 - 0 3 - 0 +19 +12 B D A+ +7 B+ A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 31 @Texas L 64 - 80 54% -6  16 - 1 3 - 1 +2 -0 C F C +1 D- B A+
 Sat, Jan 17 5 Florida L 94 - 98 50% -2  16 - 2 3 - 2 +15 +27 A+ B+ A+ -12 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 20 22 @Arkansas L 68 - 93 47% -15  16 - 3 3 - 3 -6 +4 F A B+ -11 D C D+
 Sat, Jan 24 73 @Mississippi St. W 88 - 56 77% +20  17 - 3 4 - 3 +43 +16 A+ B B- +25 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 26 Kentucky W 80 - 55 71% +18  18 - 3 5 - 3 +38 +13 B B A +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 59 Mississippi W 71 - 68 87% +7  19 - 3 6 - 3 +9 +9 B- B- B- +1 B B- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 55 Oklahoma W 86 - 74 87%
 Tue, Feb 10 28 @Auburn W 82 - 81 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Texas A&M W 86 - 80 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 54 @Missouri W 82 - 76 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 18 Tennessee W 77 - 73 65%
 Wed, Feb 25 34 Georgia W 90 - 82 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 26 @Kentucky L 78 - 79 49%
 Wed, Mar 4 59 Mississippi W 81 - 69 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 18 @Tennessee L 74 - 76 42%
Totals 25 - 6 12 - 6 +19 +10 A- B- A- +8 A- B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.0 6.9 2.9 14.1 1st
2nd 0.1 4.0 11.9 4.9 0.3 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 11.4 5.7 0.3 18.6 3rd
4th 0.2 5.0 8.9 0.8 14.9 4th
5th 1.0 7.8 2.6 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 4.7 0.1 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 0.9 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 0.3 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.8 10.1 19.7 27.4 22.4 12.1 3.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 90.5% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1
14-4 56.9% 6.9    2.4 3.3 1.1 0.1
13-5 17.7% 4.0    0.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1
12-6 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 4.5 5.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.2% 100.0% 27.6% 72.4% 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.1% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.7 1.0 4.1 4.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 22.4% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.2 0.6 3.9 9.5 6.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 27.4% 100.0% 13.7% 86.3% 4.0 0.2 1.4 7.0 11.0 6.1 1.7 0.1 100.0%
11-7 19.7% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 4.7 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 6.8 3.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
10-8 10.1% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 3.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 3.8% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 100.0%
8-10 1.1% 98.6% 2.7% 95.9% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.6%
7-11 0.1% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 4.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.5 58.8 37.3 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 2.0 25.0 52.9 20.6 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 2.2 19.1 42.6 34.8 3.5