Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.9 #22
Expected Predictive Rating +16.2 #26
Pace 65.5 #284
Improvement +1.3 #113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #17 A- A+ B+ C B
Defense #29 A+ B- C- C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #178 1.21 #114 +1.0 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #315 0.93 #17 -1.3 #238
Three Pointers 48% #53 1.13 #39 +6.5 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #39 +6.2 #40
Freethrows 18.4 #133 71% #231 13.0 #157
Second Chance 35.4% #52 1.25 #11 0.44 #24
Turnovers 14.2% #45
Total Offense +9.4 #17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 0.95 #10 +5.3 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #20 0.66 #62 -1.6 #288
Three Pointers 36% #312 0.92 #72 +4.3 #38
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #12 +8.0 #12
Freethrows 16.0 #119 72% #165 11.6 #248
Second Chance 30.3% #158 0.94 #64 0.29 #100
Turnovers 15.7% #235
Total Defense +6.6 #29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #76 -2.4% #30
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.2% #43 -13.7% #12
Possession Length 15.6 #42 19.6 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #91 0.15 #104
Improvement -1.8 #290 +3.1 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.1% 2.4% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 19.3% 21.3% 7.7%
Top 6 Seed 51.2% 54.6% 31.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% 96.3% 89.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.6% 95.8% 88.4%
Average Seed 6.4 6.2 7.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.9% 89.5%
Conference Champion 11.7% 13.1% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.5% 2.1% 5.1%
First Round94.1% 95.3% 86.7%
Second Round66.4% 68.5% 54.0%
Sweet Sixteen27.2% 28.7% 18.3%
Elite Eight10.1% 10.8% 6.2%
Final Four3.7% 4.0% 2.1%
Championship Game1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.3%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 85.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 28 - 314 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 348 Rider W 87 - 53 99%  +17  1 - 0 +19 +17 C A+ A +5 B- B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 347 NC Central W 81 - 62 99%  +19  2 - 0 +4 +12 B- A+ C- -6 B B F
 Tue, Nov 11 252 Hampton W 91 - 53 98%  +24  3 - 0 +30 +20 A A+ F +12 A+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 159 Marshall W 104 - 78 95%  +20  4 - 0 +23 +21 A+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 60 Northwestern W 83 - 78 75%  -1  5 - 0 +14 +12 D+ A+ B+ +2 B A- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 57 Butler L 73 - 80 74%  -5  5 - 1 +2 +5 D+ A+ A -3 D A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 207 Queens W 94 - 69 97%  +12  6 - 1 +19 +21 A+ F B +0 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 45 @Texas W 88 - 69 56%  +6  7 - 1 +33 +26 A B+ A +9 A+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 75 Dayton W 86 - 73 78%  +2  8 - 1 +21 +15 A+ A+ F +5 B+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99%  +12  9 - 1 +9 +10 A+ F A+ +0 C- C C
 Sat, Dec 20 107 Maryland W 80 - 72 91%  -0  10 - 1 +9 +12 B D- A+ -3 F C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 241 American W 95 - 51 97%  +18  11 - 1 +37 +28 A+ A+ A- +13 A+ C C
 Wed, Dec 31 68 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 66%  -8  11 - 2 0 - 1 +2 -5 D+ F C- +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 34 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 47%  +12  12 - 2 1 - 1 +32 +17 A+ A+ C +16 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 84 California W 84 - 60 87%  +5  13 - 2 2 - 1 +28 +15 A A+ C +13 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 79 Stanford W 78 - 67 86% 
 Tue, Jan 13 15 @Louisville L 75 - 80 33% 
 Sat, Jan 17 28 @SMU L 76 - 78 44% 
 Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina W 76 - 72 64% 
 Tue, Jan 27 59 @Notre Dame W 71 - 67 64% 
 Sat, Jan 31 151 @Boston College W 75 - 62 88% 
 Tue, Feb 3 82 Pittsburgh W 77 - 65 86% 
 Sat, Feb 7 69 Syracuse W 78 - 67 83% 
 Tue, Feb 10 111 @Florida St. W 84 - 75 79% 
 Sat, Feb 14 30 Ohio St. W 76 - 74 56% 
 Wed, Feb 18 114 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 69 81% 
 Sat, Feb 21 36 Miami (FL) W 78 - 73 69% 
 Tue, Feb 24 34 North Carolina St. W 78 - 73 68% 
 Sat, Feb 28 6 @Duke L 70 - 78 23% 
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Wake Forest W 80 - 70 82% 
 Sat, Mar 7 68 Virginia Tech W 79 - 69 82% 
Totals 24 - 7 12 - 6 +16 +9 A- A+ B+ +7 A+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.7 2.7 0.5 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.1 8.6 4.0 0.5 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.6 9.1 3.6 0.4 0.0 18.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 7.7 3.8 0.3 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.1 4.9 0.5 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.2 4.2 8th
9th 0.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 5.0 9.6 14.5 19.1 20.2 15.7 9.0 3.2 0.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
16-2 83.7% 2.7    1.8 0.8 0.1
15-3 51.8% 4.7    2.0 2.1 0.6 0.1
14-4 20.3% 3.2    0.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
13-5 3.2% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 4.9 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 2.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 3.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.0% 99.9% 21.1% 78.8% 4.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 99.9%
14-4 15.7% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 4.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 20.2% 99.8% 12.3% 87.5% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 5.8 4.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 19.1% 98.6% 9.4% 89.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 4.5 5.1 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 98.5%
11-7 14.5% 96.0% 6.1% 89.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 3.7 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.6 95.8%
10-8 9.6% 89.0% 3.6% 85.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.1 0.5 1.1 88.6%
9-9 5.0% 79.8% 2.1% 77.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 0.7 1.0 79.4%
8-10 2.2% 55.8% 0.7% 55.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 55.5%
7-11 0.8% 28.6% 1.9% 26.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 27.2%
6-12 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 11.0 0.0 0.2 4.8%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.2% 11.2% 84.0% 6.4 4.8 94.6%