Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.2 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +19.1 #14
Pace 64.3 #299
Improvement -1.2 #245

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #18 B+ A+ B- C+ B
Defense #40 A- B+ C C B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.26 #72 +2.8 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #329 0.93 #20 -1.9 #279
Three Pointers 48% #52 1.10 #72 +5.2 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #36 +6.1 #37
Freethrows 0.32 #125 72% #179 0.23 #126
Second Chance 41.2% #4 1.14 #49 0.47 #6
Turnovers 15.1% #85
Total Offense +9.9 #18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 0.95 #10 +5.6 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #15 0.71 #106 -2.3 #337
Three Pointers 36% #306 0.93 #68 +3.9 #40
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #16 +7.1 #16
Freethrows 0.29 #163 72% #138 0.21 #153
Second Chance 27.7% #73 0.87 #18 0.24 #29
Turnovers 16.3% #201
Total Defense +6.4 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #45 -2.4% #24
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.6% #46 -11.8% #20
Possession Length 16.3 #89 19.3 #364
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.15 #120
Improvement -1.5 #276 +0.3 #173

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 2.7% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 27.9% 29.7% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 74.0% 76.3% 54.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.7% 99.5%
Average Seed 5.5 5.4 6.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 6.4% 7.0% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.7% 99.7% 99.4%
Second Round76.2% 77.0% 69.0%
Sweet Sixteen33.4% 34.3% 25.9%
Elite Eight11.8% 12.2% 8.6%
Final Four4.4% 4.5% 3.2%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 89.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 36 - 4
Quad 28 - 215 - 7
Quad 35 - 019 - 7
Quad 47 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 352 Rider W 87 - 53 99% +17  1 - 0 +18 +14 C A+ B+ +7 B- B A-
 Fri, Nov 7 341 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  2 - 0 +4 +10 C+ A+ D -4 B+ C+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 251 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  3 - 0 +30 +20 A- A+ D- +11 A+ C D+
 Sat, Nov 15 153 Marshall W 104 - 78 95% +20  4 - 0 +23 +22 A A+ A+ -1 A+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 63 Northwestern W 83 - 78 76% -1  5 - 0 +14 +13 D+ A+ B- +1 B- B+ D
 Sun, Nov 23 66 Butler L 73 - 80 77% -5  5 - 1 +1 +4 D A- A- -3 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 208 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +18  6 - 1 +19 +22 A+ B B -1 A+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 31 @Texas W 88 - 69 45% +16  7 - 1 +37 +26 A+ A+ A +12 A+ B F+
 Sat, Dec 6 88 Dayton W 86 - 73 83% +6  8 - 1 +19 +14 A+ A+ F +4 B A+ F+
 Tue, Dec 9 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +16  9 - 1 +10 +10 A C- A+ +0 C C C
 Sat, Dec 20 107 Maryland W 80 - 72 92% +4  10 - 1 +9 +11 C+ C- A+ -2 F+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 244 American W 95 - 51 98% +22  11 - 1 +36 +29 A+ A+ A- +12 A+ C C-
 Wed, Dec 31 60 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 65% -2  11 - 2 0 - 1 +2 -4 D D- C+ +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 23 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 38% +13  12 - 2 1 - 1 +34 +18 A+ A+ C +18 A+ A+ B
 Wed, Jan 7 64 California W 84 - 60 84% +12  13 - 2 2 - 1 +30 +17 A+ A+ C +14 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 86 Stanford W 70 - 55 88% +9  14 - 2 3 - 1 +18 +6 C B+ A +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 16 @Louisville W 79 - 70 33% +9  15 - 2 4 - 1 +30 +20 A+ A+ C- +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 39 @SMU W 72 - 68 49% +1  16 - 2 5 - 1 +20 +14 C- A+ C+ +7 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 24 29 North Carolina L 80 - 85 65% +4  16 - 3 5 - 2 +7 +13 B A+ D+ -6 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 81 @Notre Dame W 100 - 97 2OT 73% -5  17 - 3 6 - 2 +13 +21 A B- B- -9 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 127 @Boston College W 73 - 66 85% -1  18 - 3 7 - 2 +12 +12 B+ C- A +1 C C+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 93 Pittsburgh W 77 - 64 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 68 Syracuse W 80 - 69 85%
 Tue, Feb 10 101 @Florida St. W 82 - 74 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Ohio St. W 77 - 74 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 115 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 69 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 Miami (FL) W 79 - 72 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 23 North Carolina St. W 78 - 75 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 67 - 77 17%
 Tue, Mar 3 75 Wake Forest W 80 - 69 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 60 Virginia Tech W 78 - 68 83%
Totals 25 - 6 14 - 4 +16 +10 B+ A+ B- +6 A- B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 2.9 3.0 6.4 1st
2nd 0.6 8.2 22.6 15.9 0.9 48.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 12.9 8.1 0.9 25.2 3rd
4th 0.8 5.9 4.3 0.5 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 2.8 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.8 12.9 25.6 31.7 19.7 3.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 75.9% 3.0    1.3 1.7 0.1
15-3 14.8% 2.9    0.5 1.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 1.7% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.4% 6.4 1.7 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.2 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 19.7% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 4.2 0.2 1.1 4.0 6.6 5.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 31.7% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.9 10.2 8.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-5 25.6% 99.7% 8.5% 91.2% 6.0 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.4 8.0 6.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.1 99.7%
12-6 12.9% 99.4% 5.8% 93.6% 6.8 0.1 0.2 1.6 3.2 4.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.1 99.3%
11-7 4.8% 98.1% 3.0% 95.1% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.1%
10-8 1.2% 94.8% 1.7% 93.1% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.8%
9-9 0.3% 91.1% 91.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.1%
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 10.6% 89.1% 5.5 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 2.2 15.0 55.1 28.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 2.9 2.8 29.6 45.4 18.5 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 3.3 1.3 14.7 40.0 36.7 6.7 0.7