Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.2 22
Results Rating +21.0 10
Pace 64.5 286
Improvement -0.8 213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense A- 30 B+ A B- C B
Defense A- 18 A B+ C C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 148 B- 62% 92 +2.0 107
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 330 A- 46% 21 -2.0 275
Three Pointers 48% 45 B 37% 54 +5.6 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 51 B +4.3 53
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.13 40
Second Chance A 40.5% 5 B- 1.10 79 A 0.45 11
Turnovers B- 15.4% 91
Freethrows C 0.31 168 C 72% 203 C 0.22 166
Total Offense A- +8.7 30

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 97 B- 9.2% 91
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A 44% 12 B- 3.7% 87
Three Pointers B- 88% 89 C 1.0% 211
Total B+ 65% 27 B- 4.6% 71

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 300 A 47% 10 -6.2 19
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 13 B- 36% 104 +2.8 346
Three Pointers 36% 308 A- 30% 24 -4.8 19
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.4 20 A -6.8 9
1st FG Attempt A 0.86 8
Second Chance B+ 26.0% 37 B+ 0.91 30 B+ 0.24 26
Turnovers C 17.1% 163
Freethrows B- 0.28 102 C- 73% 256 C+ 0.20 120
Total Defense A- +8.5 18

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 78 A+ 22.6% 3
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 25% 169 C+ 5.9% 106
Three Pointers B- 80% 68 B 1.8% 47
Total B 49% 43 A+ 10.1% 6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 85 19.4 363
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 68 0.16 145
Improvement -3.0 #316 +2.2 #67

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 27 21 14
Results Rating Rank 18 12 7
Conference Record 13 - 5 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 6 4 2
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 5% 8% 1%
Top 4 Seed 55% 65% 36%
Top 6 Seed 97% 99% 93%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.3 4.1 4.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 13% 18% 5%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round88% 91% 84%
Sweet Sixteen44% 47% 38%
Elite Eight15% 17% 12%
Final Four6% 6% 4%
Championship Game2% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 4
Quad 28 - 215 - 5
Quad 36 - 021 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 356 Rider W 87 - 53 100% +17  95% 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +11 D+ A+ A A- +8 B B A
 Fri, Nov 7 352 NC Central W 81 - 62 100% +19  100% 2 - 0 C+ +2 B +6 C A+ D+ C- -2 A- C+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 259 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +17 A- A+ D- A+ +14 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 176 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  99% 4 - 0 A +22 A+ +16 A- A+ A B +4 A+ F B
 Fri, Nov 21 69 Northwestern W 83 - 78 80% -1  35% 5 - 0 B+ +13 A- +10 D A B+ B- +3 B- B D
 Sun, Nov 23 75 Butler L 73 - 80 82% -5  1% 5 - 1 C +1 C +1 D- A- A C -0 D A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 212 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +18  99% 6 - 1 A +19 A+ +18 A+ B B B- +3 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 29 @Texas W 88 - 69 47% +16  91% 7 - 1 A+ +37 A+ +23 A+ A+ A A+ +16 A+ B+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 87 Dayton W 86 - 73 84% +6  70% 8 - 1 A +20 A- +11 A+ A+ F A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +16  97% 9 - 1 B- +8 B +7 A- C- A C+ +2 C- C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 104 Maryland W 80 - 72 92% +4  66% 10 - 1 B +9 B+ +8 B- C- A C+ +1 D- B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 253 American W 95 - 51 98% +22  97% 11 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +26 A+ A+ A A+ +15 A+ C D+
 Wed, Dec 31 57 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 66% -2  22% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C+ +3 D- -7 D- D C A+ +13 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 24 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 44% +13  95% 12 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +34 A+ +15 A+ A+ C- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 70 California W 84 - 60 86% +12  93% 13 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +29 A +13 A A+ C A+ +17 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 77 Stanford W 70 - 55 88% +9  89% 14 - 2 3 - 1 A +20 B- +5 C+ A- A A+ +16 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 11 @Louisville W 79 - 70 31% +9  97% 15 - 2 4 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +18 A+ A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 31 @SMU W 72 - 68 47% +1  54% 16 - 2 5 - 1 A +22 A- +11 C- A+ C+ A+ +12 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 24 27 North Carolina L 80 - 85 69% +4  74% 16 - 3 5 - 2 B- +7 A +12 B A+ D+ D -5 C- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 86 @Notre Dame W 100 - 97 2OT 76% -5  19% 17 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +18 A B B- D -6 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 139 @Boston College W 73 - 66 88% -1  36% 18 - 3 7 - 2 B +11 B+ +8 B- C- A B +4 C B- C
 Tue, Feb 3 98 Pittsburgh W 67 - 47 91% +10  85% 19 - 3 8 - 2 A +22 C+ +3 B A C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 73 Syracuse W 72 - 59 87% +6  85% 20 - 3 9 - 2 A +18 B+ +8 B- B+ B+ A+ +12 B+ B+ A
 Tue, Feb 10 80 @Florida St. W 61 - 58 74% -2  19% 21 - 3 10 - 2 B+ +13 F+ -8 F A C- A+ +22 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Ohio St. W 70 - 66 61% -2  29% 22 - 3 A +18 B- +4 C C C- A+ +15 A A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 18 140 @Georgia Tech W 94 - 68 89% +26  99% 23 - 3 11 - 2 A+ +30 A- +11 B+ A+ D+ A+ +16 A+ C B
 Sat, Feb 21 39 Miami (FL) W 86 - 83 75% -0  47% 24 - 3 12 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +22 A+ F A+ F+ -8 B F D+
 Tue, Feb 24 24 North Carolina St. W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 2 @Duke L 64 - 75 16%
 Tue, Mar 3 65 Wake Forest W 80 - 68 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 57 Virginia Tech W 77 - 67 83%
Totals 27 - 4 15 - 3 +17 A- +9 B- B B A- +8 B C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B- A- B B 39% 23% 48% B B+ A B- A B- C C C A- A B- A- A 34% 29% 36% A- A B+ B+ B+ C B- C- C+
1.21 62% 46% 37% +4 +1 1.13 40% 1.1 .45 15% .31 72% .22 0.97 47% 36% 30% -7 -1 0.86 26% 0.9 .24 17% .28 73% .23
Nov
3
Rider A- A- A F D+ 47% 9% 45% B- D+ A+ A A+ A A+ F A+ A- B+ A C- C+ 33% 45% 23% A B C- A B A F A- F
1.36 68% 50% 29% +2 +2 1.11 54% 1.2 .63 9% .59 56% .33 0.83 46% 28% 33% -9 -4 0.78 33% 0.7 .23 22% .58 62% .36
Nov
7
NC Central B A+ F B C 22% 15% 63% D C A+ C+ A+ D+ A- F C C- A+ A+ F A 43% 29% 29% C+ A- F A+ C+ F+ F F F
1.29 80% 29% 38% +7 0 1.15 53% 1.0 .53 19% .37 58% .22 0.99 33% 21% 43% -12 -1 0.78 36% 0.7 .25 14% .41 82% .33
Nov
11
Hampton A+ C B- A+ B+ 53% 10% 37% A A- A+ B A+ D- F+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% F+ A+ A+ F C+ D A+ A A+
1.36 62% 40% 44% +8 +2 1.22 52% 1.1 .59 19% .31 82% .26 0.79 35% 30% 22% -18 0 0.66 24% 1.2 .29 16% .20 64% .12
Nov
15
Marshall A+ C- B+ A+ A- 42% 13% 45% A- A- C+ A+ A+ A A+ C A+ B A+ F A+ A+ 28% 30% 42% B A+ C+ F F B F F+ F
1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39 1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31
Nov
21
Northwestern A- F+ A F D 40% 23% 36% C+ D A+ D+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A- F C+ 42% 30% 28% B B- A+ F B D D B C-
1.17 47% 45% 24% -8 0 0.85 53% 0.9 .45 16% .60 83% .50 1.10 59% 31% 40% +1 -1 1.02 18% 1.8 .32 10% .38 71% .27
Nov
23
Butler C D- D F F 47% 11% 42% A D- A B- A- A B- F D C B- F F D- 48% 22% 30% B- D D- A+ A+ A F B- F
1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12 1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36
Nov
28
Queens A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ A D- B B B D- C+ B- A+ C+ A A+ 34% 22% 44% B+ A+ F C F B- D+ A C+
1.46 69% 60% 50% +19 +1 1.43 45% 0.9 .42 12% .39 68% .27 1.07 47% 36% 27% -9 0 0.84 40% 1.1 .44 17% .34 67% .22
Dec
3
Texas A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ 40% 15% 46% A- A+ C A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C A+ A- C B+ F+ D+ A C+
1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34 1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29
Dec
6
Dayton A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% B A+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ A- B A D B 43% 23% 34% A- B+ A A+ A+ F A- B- A
1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38 0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25
Dec
9
Maryland Eastern Shore B D+ D+ A+ B+ 49% 5% 45% A A- D B C- A F C F C+ A F A C+ 56% 21% 23% F C- A F C+ C- A F B
1.25 56% 33% 44% +5 +3 1.18 28% 1.2 .34 10% .25 73% .18 0.90 45% 64% 25% -5 +1 0.94 21% 1.2 .24 22% .15 88% .13
Dec
20
Maryland B+ C F+ B+ C+ 53% 13% 34% A B- A+ F C- A A- F B- C+ C+ C+ F F 21% 26% 53% A+ D- F A+ B- A+ F C F
1.19 57% 29% 39% +1 +2 1.08 40% 0.6 .25 12% .35 62% .22 1.07 56% 36% 43% +7 -2 1.12 49% 0.7 .34 28% .46 73% .33
Dec
22
American A+ A A+ B A+ 52% 4% 44% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A D- F F A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 23% 58% A+ A+ C+ C C D+ A+ F A+
1.49 72% 100% 38% +13 +3 1.33 52% 1.5 .78 14% .33 56% .18 0.80 60% 25% 23% -12 -2 0.75 24% 0.9 .22 16% .11 83% .09
Dec
31
Virginia Tech D- B F F F+ 32% 11% 57% B+ D- C F D C D B- D+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 25% 38% 37% A+ A+ D+ C C- C F B+ F
0.89 63% 13% 24% -10 +1 0.84 30% 0.8 .23 18% .19 73% .14 0.99 44% 25% 30% -11 -3 0.75 35% 1.1 .39 15% .50 68% .34
Jan
3
North Carolina St. A+ B- A+ B- A+ 27% 9% 64% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- C B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 32% 30% 39% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ F D F
1.18 58% 100% 36% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.4 .50 22% .30 73% .22 0.95 57% 23% 24% -11 -2 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .46 80% .37
Jan
7
California A A- A+ D- A 39% 12% 49% B A A A+ A+ C A+ C A A+ C- B A+ A+ 27% 37% 37% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D+ F F+
1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26 0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32
Jan
10
Stanford B- A B+ F C+ 35% 20% 46% B- C+ A C A- A D+ A- C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 46% A- A+ B- A+ A+ A C F D
1.10 69% 44% 24% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 14% .31 82% .26 0.87 61% 25% 23% -9 0 0.85 32% 0.2 .05 20% .34 82% .28
Jan
13
Louisville A+ D D A+ A+ 14% 23% 63% D+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F C A+ 35% 12% 54% B+ A+ C- A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ B+
1.19 50% 30% 44% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 20% .55 79% .43 1.06 33% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 12% .31 67% .21
Jan
17
SMU A- F D- B C- 29% 22% 49% C C- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D D- A+ 40% 40% 19% A A+ B D- C D+ B D+ B-
1.16 46% 30% 36% -3 -1 0.93 44% 1.4 .61 18% .23 83% .20 1.09 38% 48% 40% -2 -2 0.92 33% 1.2 .39 13% .26 79% .20
Jan
24
North Carolina A A+ D F B- 37% 20% 43% B+ B A+ A- A+ D+ A+ C A+ D C+ D+ F D- 27% 35% 38% A+ C- A+ A A+ F C+ C+ C+
1.18 68% 30% 27% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.1 .47 16% .35 70% .25 1.25 60% 42% 48% +10 -3 1.16 22% 0.9 .19 6% .34 68% .23
Jan
27
Notre Dame A+ A A+ C+ A 36% 15% 49% B A A F+ B B- A+ B+ A+ D B- D+ F F+ 31% 26% 43% B D- A A+ A+ D- F F F
1.28 68% 50% 35% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.9 .30 14% .52 80% .42 1.24 59% 43% 48% +10 -1 1.20 26% 0.7 .17 13% .50 82% .41
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31
Boston College B+ A- A+ F C+ 46% 15% 38% B+ B- A- F C- A C+ A- B- B F+ D A+ D+ 33% 39% 28% A+ C A- D- B- C F A F
1.12 67% 50% 20% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.6 .23 11% .31 72% .22 1.01 67% 44% 23% +1 -3 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .47 58% .27
Feb
3
Pittsburgh C+ C- F B+ B- 38% 8% 54% B+ B A B A C+ F F F A+ D A+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 43% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A B
1.11 56% 25% 38% +2 +2 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 17% .18 44% .08 0.78 64% 22% 24% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.8 .18 28% .28 58% .16
Feb
7
Syracuse B+ F A+ B B- 42% 13% 46% B+ B- A+ D- B+ B+ D+ C D+ A+ A+ F A+ B- 40% 40% 20% A+ B+ A+ D- B+ A A+ F A+
1.16 35% 67% 36% -4 +1 0.96 44% 1.0 .44 16% .27 71% .19 0.95 44% 67% 22% +2 -2 1.02 22% 1.2 .26 21% .14 86% .12
Feb
10
Florida St. F+ F B+ F F 24% 18% 58% C F C+ A+ A C- F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 17% 50% B+ A+ A A+ A+ D D- C+ D-
0.90 42% 44% 28% -8 -1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 21% .15 63% .09 0.85 47% 22% 19% -17 0 0.67 24% 0.8 .20 12% .37 73% .27
Feb
14
Ohio St. B- B F+ C- C 31% 31% 38% C C B+ F+ C C- A+ D A+ A+ B B+ F B+ 27% 49% 24% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.06 62% 31% 31% -3 -2 0.93 35% 0.8 .29 18% .60 69% .41 1.00 60% 37% 46% +4 -4 1.02 17% 0.7 .11 12% .16 67% .10
Feb
18
Georgia Tech A- C+ F+ A- B+ 38% 11% 51% A- B+ A+ C- A+ D+ F F F A+ A- B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% A- A+ A F C B C F D-
1.19 57% 29% 39% +2 +1 1.08 45% 1.1 .48 18% .20 62% .12 0.86 50% 32% 18% -12 -2 0.74 24% 1.5 .37 20% .30 84% .25
Feb
21
Miami (FL) A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 11% 47% A A+ D F F A+ A- A+ A+ F+ B+ C+ F C+ 38% 31% 31% A+ B C F F D+ B F F+
1.33 70% 60% 55% +22 +2 1.49 18% 0.5 .09 14% .32 89% .29 1.28 55% 38% 44% +3 -1 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 14% .30 94% .29




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.3 8.0 13.5 1st
2nd 0.1 7.1 35.2 41.0 83.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.5 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.0 9.3 35.5 46.3 8.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 8.0    3.5 4.5
15-3 11.3% 5.3    0.5 4.7
14-4 0.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 13.5% 13.5 4.0 9.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 8.0% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 3.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 2.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 46.3% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.0 0.3 2.7 11.3 17.8 11.6 2.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 35.5% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.7 0.0 0.4 3.6 10.1 13.3 6.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 9.3% 99.9% 7.4% 92.4% 5.5 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 99.8%
12-6 1.0% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 4.3 0.0 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 2.1 22.4 45.4 27.7 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 100.0% 2.9 3.0 28.3 47.3 19.1 2.1 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 100.0% 3.4 1.7 11.0 44.4 36.8 5.4 0.8
Lose Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.2 1.4 17.6 48.6 24.3 6.8 1.4