Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#8
Expected Predictive Rating+20.4#7
Pace69.1#143
Improvement+4.0#32

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#27
First Shot+5.6#49
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#50
Layup/Dunks+6.8#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#354
Freethrows+4.3#8
Improvement-0.2#196

Defense
Total Defense+11.6#4
First Shot+9.4#8
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#36
Layups/Dunks+6.4#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#86
Freethrows+2.5#39
Improvement+4.1#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 16.0% 18.5% 8.5%
Top 2 Seed 78.1% 82.5% 65.0%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.1% 97.3% 96.5%
Sweet Sixteen67.0% 67.0% 66.8%
Elite Eight40.1% 40.4% 39.0%
Final Four17.5% 17.8% 16.5%
Championship Game7.4% 7.6% 6.7%
National Champion2.8% 3.0% 2.4%

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 213 - 4
Quad 26 - 119 - 6
Quad 35 - 024 - 6
Quad 44 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 249   Monmouth W 81-57 99%     1 - 0 +16.5 +1.0 +14.7
  Nov 07, 2024 311   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.2 +15.5 +8.3
  Nov 12, 2024 19   Kansas L 69-77 61%     2 - 1 +8.7 -1.5 +11.1
  Nov 16, 2024 283   Bowling Green W 86-72 99%     3 - 1 +4.1 +9.0 -5.1
  Nov 19, 2024 124   Samford W 83-75 96%     4 - 1 +7.5 +6.9 +0.5
  Nov 25, 2024 80   Colorado W 72-56 87%     5 - 1 +23.2 +6.0 +17.5
  Nov 26, 2024 50   Memphis L 63-71 79%     5 - 2 +3.1 +3.5 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2024 34   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 71%     6 - 2 +16.7 +14.5 +1.8
  Dec 04, 2024 84   @ Minnesota W 90-72 83%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +27.2 +30.6 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 57   Nebraska W 89-52 87%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +44.3 +19.3 +24.5
  Dec 17, 2024 184   Oakland W 77-58 96%     9 - 2 +17.6 +10.3 +9.3
  Dec 21, 2024 107   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 95%     10 - 2 +18.1 +6.8 +10.3
  Dec 30, 2024 297   Western Michigan W 80-62 99%     11 - 2 +7.5 -1.3 +8.1
  Jan 03, 2025 39   @ Ohio St. W 69-62 65%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +22.6 +3.9 +18.9
  Jan 09, 2025 105   Washington W 88-54 95%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +35.2 +12.8 +21.3
  Jan 12, 2025 49   @ Northwestern W 78-68 71%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +23.8 +13.7 +10.3
  Jan 15, 2025 58   Penn St. W 90-85 87%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +12.1 +16.9 -5.0
  Jan 19, 2025 17   Illinois W 80-78 70%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +16.1 +8.8 +7.2
  Jan 25, 2025 65   @ Rutgers W 81-74 79%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +18.0 +9.6 +8.3
  Jan 28, 2025 84   Minnesota W 73-51 92%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +25.7 +13.6 +15.3
  Feb 01, 2025 61   @ USC L 64-70 76%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +6.2 -2.7 +8.7
  Feb 04, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 61-63 54%     18 - 4 9 - 2 +16.4 +3.8 +12.4
  Feb 08, 2025 35   Oregon W 86-74 79%     19 - 4 10 - 2 +22.9 +19.8 +3.3
  Feb 11, 2025 43   Indiana L 67-71 84%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +5.1 +3.9 +0.9
  Feb 15, 2025 17   @ Illinois W 79-65 50%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +33.6 +16.9 +17.2
  Feb 18, 2025 16   Purdue W 75-66 69%     21 - 5 12 - 3 +23.5 +18.2 +6.8
  Feb 21, 2025 31   @ Michigan W 75-62 60%     22 - 5 13 - 3 +29.9 +16.3 +14.5
  Feb 26, 2025 11   @ Maryland W 58-55 44%     23 - 5 14 - 3 +24.0 -1.5 +25.6
  Mar 02, 2025 15   Wisconsin W 71-62 68%     24 - 5 15 - 3 +23.6 +0.2 +23.1
  Mar 06, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 91-84 75%     25 - 5 16 - 3 +19.4 +17.0 +2.1
  Mar 09, 2025 31   Michigan W 79-62 78%     26 - 5 17 - 3 +28.4 +11.6 +16.6
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 100.0% 29.4% 70.7% 2.1 16.0 62.1 20.4 1.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 29.4% 70.7% 2.1 16.0 62.1 20.4 1.5 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 29.4% 100.0% 1.8 27.5 65.8 6.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.6% 100.0% 2.1 12.9 69.0 17.4 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.7% 100.0% 2.2 12.7 58.1 27.3 2.0
Lose Out 25.4% 100.0% 2.3 8.5 56.5 31.7 3.2 0.1