North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#26
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#39
Pace77.8#17
Improvement-2.4#287

Offense
Total Offense+6.7#37
First Shot+6.5#36
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#166
Layup/Dunks+5.7#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows+2.9#33
Improvement-5.5#363

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#23
First Shot+5.6#36
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#64
Layups/Dunks+5.3#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#116
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#260
Freethrows+1.1#112
Improvement+3.2#41
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.8% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 8.9% 12.8% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.7% 75.7% 57.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.5% 73.7% 55.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.3 9.0
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.6% 96.9%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.6% 10.6% 12.7%
First Round62.7% 71.1% 52.5%
Second Round35.9% 41.9% 28.6%
Sweet Sixteen11.1% 13.7% 7.8%
Elite Eight4.5% 5.3% 3.5%
Final Four1.6% 2.0% 1.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 19 - 12
Quad 37 - 116 - 13
Quad 45 - 021 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 158   Elon W 90-76 92%     1 - 0 +11.7 +9.8 +1.1
  Nov 08, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 89-92 21%     1 - 1 +19.3 +20.7 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2024 236   American W 107-55 96%     2 - 1 +45.0 +24.5 +17.5
  Nov 22, 2024 181   @ Hawaii W 87-69 87%     3 - 1 +19.8 +17.6 +2.7
  Nov 25, 2024 76   Dayton W 92-90 73%     4 - 1 +9.3 +11.7 -2.6
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Auburn L 72-85 19%     4 - 2 +10.1 +3.1 +7.7
  Nov 27, 2024 12   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 37%     4 - 3 +14.2 +15.7 -1.1
  Dec 04, 2024 7   Alabama L 79-94 39%     4 - 4 +1.7 -1.4 +5.5
  Dec 07, 2024 104   Georgia Tech W 68-65 88%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +4.1 -8.8 +12.7
  Dec 14, 2024 191   La Salle W 93-67 94%     6 - 4 +21.9 +10.8 +8.9
  Dec 17, 2024 5   Florida L 84-90 26%     6 - 5 +14.4 +10.6 +4.5
  Dec 21, 2024 31   UCLA W 76-74 53%     7 - 5 +15.0 +9.8 +5.2
  Dec 29, 2024 250   Campbell W 97-81 97%     8 - 5 +8.2 +20.9 -12.9
  Jan 01, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 70-83 40%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +3.5 -0.5 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 77   @ Notre Dame W 74-73 64%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +11.0 +6.3 +4.8
  Jan 07, 2025 37   SMU W 82-67 66%     10 - 6 3 - 1 +24.7 +6.3 +17.3
  Jan 11, 2025 93   @ North Carolina St. W 63-61 69%     11 - 6 4 - 1 +10.8 +0.5 +10.5
  Jan 15, 2025 118   California W 79-53 90%     12 - 6 5 - 1 +26.0 +2.0 +23.4
  Jan 18, 2025 88   Stanford L 71-72 83%     12 - 7 5 - 2 +2.7 +1.6 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2025 59   @ Wake Forest W 75-73 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 193   Boston College W 86-68 96%    
  Jan 28, 2025 40   @ Pittsburgh L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 1   @ Duke L 69-82 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 40   Pittsburgh W 81-76 68%    
  Feb 10, 2025 30   @ Clemson L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 103   @ Syracuse W 83-76 75%    
  Feb 19, 2025 93   North Carolina St. W 79-69 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 107   Virginia W 72-59 89%    
  Feb 24, 2025 58   @ Florida St. W 81-79 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 155   Miami (FL) W 90-74 93%    
  Mar 04, 2025 137   @ Virginia Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 1   Duke L 72-79 26%    
Projected Record 20 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.1 2.9 1.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.7 6.2 2.8 0.2 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.3 10.4 4.8 0.6 0.0 23.1 4th
5th 0.4 4.8 10.9 5.3 0.5 0.0 22.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 8.2 4.3 0.5 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.7 4.2 3.4 0.3 8.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.4 10.3 17.7 22.7 21.3 13.6 6.4 1.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1
17-3 23.9% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 1.8% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.4% 99.4% 14.7% 84.7% 6.3 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-5 13.6% 95.4% 11.1% 84.3% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.4 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.6 94.8%
14-6 21.3% 86.5% 6.4% 80.0% 8.7 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.1 5.3 4.1 1.5 0.0 2.9 85.5%
13-7 22.7% 69.6% 4.7% 64.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.9 4.8 3.6 0.1 6.9 68.1%
12-8 17.7% 50.4% 4.7% 45.6% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 3.4 0.2 8.8 47.9%
11-9 10.3% 27.1% 2.1% 25.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 0.2 7.5 25.5%
10-10 4.4% 8.9% 1.4% 7.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.0 7.6%
9-11 1.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.8%
8-12 0.3% 0.3
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.7% 6.3% 61.4% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 4.3 8.9 11.7 13.5 13.4 10.7 0.6 32.3 65.5%