Texas A&M
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#20
Expected Predictive Rating+18.6#8
Pace65.7#246
Improvement+0.5#164

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#50
First Shot-0.9#207
After Offensive Rebound+6.8#1
Layup/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#234
Freethrows+2.0#66
Improvement-0.6#208

Defense
Total Defense+10.1#7
First Shot+9.6#7
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#131
Layups/Dunks+6.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#185
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement+1.0#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 2.0% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 7.7% 13.4% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 55.2% 71.6% 41.2%
Top 6 Seed 91.8% 98.1% 86.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Average Seed 4.4 3.8 4.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round83.9% 89.0% 79.6%
Sweet Sixteen43.1% 49.3% 37.8%
Elite Eight16.5% 19.4% 13.9%
Final Four6.1% 7.1% 5.3%
Championship Game2.3% 2.7% 2.0%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 19 - 8
Quad 28 - 217 - 9
Quad 32 - 019 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 81   @ Central Florida L 61-64 73%     0 - 1 +6.6 -5.7 +12.2
  Nov 08, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 87-55 99%     1 - 1 +18.0 +12.3 +6.9
  Nov 11, 2024 194   Lamar W 97-71 96%     2 - 1 +21.6 +21.2 -0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 33   Ohio St. W 78-64 68%     3 - 1 +25.1 +13.8 +11.9
  Nov 20, 2024 224   Southern W 71-54 97%     4 - 1 +11.1 +4.0 +8.3
  Nov 26, 2024 39   Oregon L 70-80 65%     4 - 2 +2.2 +3.8 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 31   Creighton W 77-73 56%     5 - 2 +18.5 +10.3 +8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 63   Rutgers W 81-77 77%     6 - 2 +12.4 +4.1 +7.9
  Dec 03, 2024 55   Wake Forest W 57-44 78%     7 - 2 +21.0 -2.7 +25.3
  Dec 08, 2024 10   Texas Tech W 72-67 41%     8 - 2 +23.4 +10.6 +13.1
  Dec 14, 2024 16   Purdue W 70-66 44%     9 - 2 +21.5 +7.7 +14.0
  Dec 20, 2024 295   Houston Christian W 77-45 98%     10 - 2 +22.0 +9.2 +17.2
  Dec 28, 2024 211   Abilene Christian W 92-54 96%     11 - 2 +32.8 +21.5 +11.7
  Jan 04, 2025 36   Texas W 80-60 71%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +30.2 +13.3 +17.3
  Jan 08, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 80-78 60%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +15.4 +20.8 -5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Alabama L 88-94 46%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +10.9 +9.6 +2.0
  Jan 14, 2025 17   @ Kentucky L 69-81 37%     13 - 4 2 - 2 +7.5 -0.2 +8.0
  Jan 18, 2025 72   LSU W 68-57 84%     14 - 4 3 - 2 +16.3 +2.1 +14.7
  Jan 22, 2025 25   @ Mississippi W 63-62 45%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +18.4 -3.2 +21.6
  Jan 25, 2025 36   @ Texas L 69-70 53%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +14.3 +12.6 +1.6
  Jan 28, 2025 50   Oklahoma W 75-68 77%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +15.3 +12.4 +3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 76-72 74%     17 - 5 6 - 3 +13.3 +15.2 -1.6
  Feb 08, 2025 15   @ Missouri W 67-64 34%     18 - 5 7 - 3 +23.2 +5.5 +17.9
  Feb 11, 2025 44   Georgia W 69-53 75%     19 - 5 8 - 3 +25.1 +9.5 +17.3
  Feb 15, 2025 35   Arkansas W 69-61 71%     20 - 5 9 - 3 +18.2 +8.3 +10.5
  Feb 18, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 54-70 45%     20 - 6 9 - 4 +1.3 -8.0 +8.5
  Feb 22, 2025 5   Tennessee L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 53   Vanderbilt W 77-69 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Florida L 68-77 19%    
  Mar 04, 2025 1   Auburn L 70-75 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 72   @ LSU W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.3 4.3 1.7 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.9 7.2 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 15.2 2.1 21.3 4th
5th 0.6 14.9 8.4 0.1 24.1 5th
6th 0.2 6.8 14.1 0.8 21.9 6th
7th 0.7 5.6 0.9 7.2 7th
8th 1.1 1.6 2.7 8th
9th 0.5 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.6 14.8 34.2 32.6 13.7 2.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 18.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.1% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 2.2 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 3.1 0.5 2.8 6.0 3.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-6 32.6% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 3.9 0.2 2.1 9.5 12.0 7.1 1.6 0.2 100.0%
11-7 34.2% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 4.7 0.0 0.5 4.5 9.0 11.3 6.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 14.8% 100.0% 1.2% 98.8% 5.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.7 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
9-9 2.6% 98.8% 0.4% 98.4% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 98.8%
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 3.5% 96.4% 4.4 1.1 6.6 21.0 26.5 23.0 13.6 5.7 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 39.1 60.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.1 26.9 46.2 19.2 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 2.2 14.1 54.9 26.8 4.2
Lose Out 1.3% 97.8% 8.3 1.5 14.9 41.0 38.1 2.2