Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#27
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#51
Pace74.7#60
Improvement+0.0#169

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#42
First Shot+10.2#7
After Offensive Rebound-4.2#353
Layup/Dunks+5.0#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#101
Freethrows+1.5#115
Improvement+0.8#67

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#12
First Shot+6.9#22
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#153
Layups/Dunks+2.5#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#299
Freethrows+4.4#15
Improvement-0.8#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.3% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 6.2% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 19.3% 19.7% 6.6%
Top 6 Seed 35.3% 35.9% 14.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.6% 70.2% 45.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.9% 68.6% 44.4%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 91.1% 91.7% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 67.8% 47.3%
Conference Champion 6.0% 6.1% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 2.5% 7.5%
First Four4.9% 4.8% 5.9%
First Round67.2% 67.8% 43.1%
Second Round46.0% 46.5% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen21.8% 22.2% 8.5%
Elite Eight9.7% 9.9% 3.7%
Final Four4.2% 4.3% 0.9%
Championship Game1.7% 1.8% 0.4%
National Champion0.7% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 97.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 9
Quad 25 - 211 - 11
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 151   Lipscomb W 76-60 92%     1 - 0 +13.4 -3.9 +16.4
  Nov 09, 2024 11   Baylor L 67-72 38%     1 - 1 +11.6 +5.2 +6.0
  Nov 13, 2024 124   Troy W 65-49 89%     2 - 1 +15.7 -4.8 +20.9
  Nov 18, 2024 291   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +9.2 +7.4 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 247   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-65 97%    
  Nov 25, 2024 354   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-57 99.8%   
  Nov 28, 2024 26   Illinois L 77-78 50%    
  Dec 03, 2024 37   @ Miami (FL) L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 278   Texas San Antonio W 90-68 98%    
  Dec 10, 2024 24   Michigan L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 14, 2024 340   Central Arkansas W 89-61 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 272   N.C. A&T W 89-67 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 176   Oakland W 80-63 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Tennessee L 71-78 26%    
  Jan 08, 2025 47   Mississippi W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 11, 2025 21   Florida W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 14, 2025 48   @ LSU W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 61   @ Missouri W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 22, 2025 55   Georgia W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 51   Oklahoma W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   @ Kentucky L 78-85 28%    
  Feb 05, 2025 31   @ Texas L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 9   Alabama L 82-83 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 48   LSU W 80-73 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 74-83 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 61   Missouri W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 31   Texas W 76-72 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 72   @ South Carolina W 75-72 59%    
  Mar 04, 2025 82   @ Vanderbilt W 79-76 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 29   Mississippi St. W 77-74 62%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.7 1.1 0.1 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.6 3.6 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 4.8 1.6 0.1 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.9 2.5 0.2 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.4 3.6 3.7 0.5 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.2 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.0 2.3 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.8 0.2 4.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 1.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 6.2 8.4 10.8 12.4 13.2 12.6 10.7 8.2 5.4 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
16-2 91.1% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
15-3 61.6% 1.9    1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 32.6% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.3% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.3% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.0% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.4% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.2% 99.8% 11.5% 88.3% 4.2 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 10.7% 99.3% 8.5% 90.8% 5.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 12.6% 96.8% 5.1% 91.7% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 96.7%
10-8 13.2% 90.6% 2.5% 88.1% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.2 90.4%
9-9 12.4% 76.4% 1.5% 74.9% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.4 0.1 2.9 76.0%
8-10 10.8% 47.8% 1.0% 46.7% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 47.2%
7-11 8.4% 18.4% 0.4% 18.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.2 6.8 18.1%
6-12 6.2% 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.9 4.7%
5-13 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.7%
4-14 2.2% 2.2
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.6% 5.1% 64.5% 6.4 2.3 3.7 6.0 7.2 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 6.8 5.6 4.9 0.6 0.0 30.4 67.9%