Duke
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.7#2
Expected Predictive Rating+20.2#8
Pace66.1#254
Improvement+0.7#141

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#10
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#38
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement+1.0#110

Defense
Total Defense+11.7#2
First Shot+9.8#3
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#53
Layups/Dunks+9.1#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#142
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement-0.3#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 9.8% 9.9% 2.2%
#1 Seed 46.4% 46.8% 21.1%
Top 2 Seed 77.0% 77.4% 48.1%
Top 4 Seed 95.2% 95.4% 80.9%
Top 6 Seed 98.8% 98.9% 94.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Average Seed 2.0 1.9 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 83.9% 84.3% 58.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
Second Round97.5% 97.6% 93.0%
Sweet Sixteen77.0% 77.2% 64.9%
Elite Eight54.2% 54.4% 38.8%
Final Four35.6% 35.8% 24.7%
Championship Game21.9% 22.0% 15.2%
National Champion12.9% 13.0% 7.9%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 4
Quad 27 - 116 - 4
Quad 39 - 024 - 5
Quad 45 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 217   Maine W 96-62 99%     1 - 0 +28.1 +17.7 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 312   Army W 100-58 99%     2 - 0 +30.5 +20.0 +10.0
  Nov 12, 2024 16   Kentucky L 72-77 73%     2 - 1 +10.5 +0.0 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2024 151   Wofford W 86-35 98%     3 - 1 +48.2 +17.1 +35.6
  Nov 22, 2024 11   @ Arizona W 69-55 60%     4 - 1 +33.1 +8.2 +25.4
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Kansas L 72-75 65%     4 - 2 +14.9 +10.8 +4.0
  Nov 29, 2024 143   Seattle W 70-48 98%     5 - 2 +19.8 -2.2 +22.7
  Dec 04, 2024 1   Auburn W 84-78 55%     6 - 2 +26.4 +27.1 +0.0
  Dec 08, 2024 45   @ Louisville W 76-65 77%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +25.1 +11.9 +13.6
  Dec 10, 2024 300   Incarnate Word W 72-46 99%     8 - 2 +15.5 +0.5 +18.4
  Dec 17, 2024 82   George Mason W 68-47 94%     9 - 2 +25.1 +7.4 +20.0
  Dec 21, 2024 112   @ Georgia Tech W 82-56 92%     10 - 2 2 - 0 +32.2 +20.7 +14.0
  Dec 31, 2024 138   Virginia Tech W 79-56 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 41   @ SMU W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 07, 2025 30   Pittsburgh W 77-66 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 14, 2025 104   Miami (FL) W 82-62 97%    
  Jan 18, 2025 167   @ Boston College W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 25, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest W 73-61 88%    
  Jan 27, 2025 79   North Carolina St. W 77-60 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 22   North Carolina W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 05, 2025 100   @ Syracuse W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 37   @ Clemson W 72-65 73%    
  Feb 12, 2025 128   California W 85-62 98%    
  Feb 15, 2025 94   Stanford W 81-62 96%    
  Feb 17, 2025 92   @ Virginia W 66-53 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 21   Illinois W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 104   @ Miami (FL) W 79-65 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 70   Florida St. W 81-64 94%    
  Mar 03, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 76-58 95%    
  Mar 08, 2025 22   @ North Carolina W 79-75 65%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.0 13.0 23.8 27.0 15.5 83.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.9 3.9 1.3 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 4.1 9.0 17.0 25.1 27.1 15.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 15.5    15.5
19-1 99.7% 27.0    26.2 0.8
18-2 94.9% 23.8    20.2 3.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 76.1% 13.0    8.2 4.1 0.6 0.0
16-4 45.1% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 14.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 83.9% 83.9 71.8 10.5 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 15.5% 100.0% 69.7% 30.3% 1.2 12.1 3.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 27.1% 100.0% 63.5% 36.5% 1.4 17.9 8.2 0.9 0.1 100.0%
18-2 25.1% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.7 11.8 10.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.0% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 2.3 3.9 6.6 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.0% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 3.1 0.6 2.2 2.9 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.1% 99.8% 38.7% 61.1% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 1.5% 99.3% 30.7% 68.6% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
13-7 0.5% 98.8% 23.9% 74.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
12-8 0.2% 97.5% 21.5% 75.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.8%
11-9 0.0% 82.6% 17.4% 65.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.9%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 57.5% 42.4% 2.0 46.4 30.6 12.2 6.0 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 100.0% 1.2 82.5 17.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 100.0% 1.2 79.1 20.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 1.3 73.9 24.6 1.5