Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.8 #2
Expected Predictive Rating +30.6 #2
Pace 77.3 #27
Improvement +2.4 #62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #6 A+ A- B- A- C
Defense #3 A+ A+ B B+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #40 1.41 #5 +9.5 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.86 #55 +3.2 #48
Three Pointers 30% #357 1.18 #16 -3.2 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #9 +9.5 #9
Freethrows 20.5 #44 75% #98 15.5 #33
Second Chance 41.6% #5 0.99 #248 0.41 #37
Turnovers 15.4% #104
Total Offense +11.5 #6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 0.96 #13 +7.5 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.63 #33 -1.9 #313
Three Pointers 38% #259 0.92 #74 +3.1 #70
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #9 +8.7 #9
Freethrows 15.3 #82 67% #27 10.3 #319
Second Chance 21.8% #3 0.89 #25 0.19 #5
Turnovers 18.5% #77
Total Defense +12.3 #3

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #213 -3.7% #11
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.9% #5 -13.8% #11
Possession Length 15.0 #23 17.6 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #6 0.13 #46
Improvement +0.1 #178 +2.4 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 17.2% 18.8% 10.7%
#1 Seed 60.0% 63.2% 46.6%
Top 2 Seed 90.9% 92.9% 82.7%
Top 4 Seed 99.6% 99.8% 98.9%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.5 1.5 1.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 45.2% 49.8% 26.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.4% 98.9%
Sweet Sixteen82.0% 83.0% 78.3%
Elite Eight59.3% 60.7% 53.4%
Final Four38.7% 40.1% 33.2%
Championship Game23.1% 24.1% 18.7%
National Champion13.0% 13.7% 10.3%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 80.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 27 - 020 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 Florida W 93 - 87 70%  +1  1 - 0 +24 +17 A+ B D+ +7 B A+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 227 Utah Tech W 93 - 67 99%  +11  2 - 0 +19 +15 A+ F C +4 A+ C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 302 Northern Arizona W 84 - 49 100%  +24  3 - 0 +24 +5 B A- D- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 38 UCLA W 69 - 65 84%  -1  4 - 0 +17 +4 C+ A D+ +13 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 5 @Connecticut W 71 - 67 47%  +4  5 - 0 +29 +19 C+ A+ B+ +10 A A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 264 Denver W 103 - 73 99%  +23  6 - 0 +21 +12 A+ C F +7 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 29 272 Norfolk St. W 98 - 61 99%  +17  7 - 0 +28 +16 A- A B+ +9 C+ C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 33 Auburn W 97 - 68 88%  +15  8 - 0 +40 +20 A+ B+ B- +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 13 Alabama W 96 - 75 70%  +7  9 - 0 +39 +20 A+ C A+ +17 B A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 202 Abilene Christian W 96 - 62 99%  +21  10 - 0 +29 +17 A+ A+ F +10 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 52 San Diego St. W 68 - 45 89%  +5  11 - 0 +33 +8 B- B A- +28 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 278 Bethune-Cookman W 107 - 71 99%  +15  12 - 0 +26 +16 A+ B- F +6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 173 South Dakota St. W 99 - 71 99%  +16  13 - 0 +24 +13 A+ A+ D- +8 A C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 117 @Utah W 97 - 78 94%  +15  14 - 0 1 - 0 +25 +18 A- A+ A +6 A+ C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 74 Kansas St. W 101 - 76 95%  +14  15 - 0 2 - 0 +30 +15 B A+ A+ +12 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 44 @TCU W 80 - 71 81% 
 Wed, Jan 14 88 Arizona St. W 92 - 72 97% 
 Sat, Jan 17 50 @Central Florida W 87 - 77 82% 
 Wed, Jan 21 58 Cincinnati W 83 - 65 95% 
 Sat, Jan 24 67 West Virginia W 81 - 63 95% 
 Mon, Jan 26 8 @BYU W 81 - 80 52% 
 Sat, Jan 31 88 @Arizona St. W 89 - 75 90% 
 Sat, Feb 7 54 Oklahoma St. W 95 - 78 94% 
 Mon, Feb 9 18 @Kansas W 79 - 75 66% 
 Sat, Feb 14 17 Texas Tech W 84 - 74 83% 
 Wed, Feb 18 8 BYU W 84 - 78 72% 
 Sat, Feb 21 11 @Houston W 72 - 71 55% 
 Tue, Feb 24 32 @Baylor W 85 - 78 74% 
 Sat, Feb 28 18 Kansas W 82 - 72 83% 
 Mon, Mar 2 3 Iowa St. W 80 - 76 63% 
 Sat, Mar 7 77 @Colorado W 89 - 76 89% 
Totals 28 - 3 15 - 3 +24 +11 A+ A- B- +12 A+ A+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 10.0 16.1 12.2 4.0 45.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.4 9.0 10.5 3.3 0.2 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.9 5.9 1.5 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.8 12.1 18.5 22.0 19.4 12.3 4.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.0    4.0
17-1 98.7% 12.2    10.8 1.4
16-2 83.0% 16.1    10.2 5.5 0.4
15-3 45.4% 10.0    3.8 4.7 1.3 0.1
14-4 14.7% 2.7    0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.2% 45.2 29.1 12.8 2.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.0% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 1.1 3.6 0.3 100.0%
17-1 12.3% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.1 10.7 1.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 19.4% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.2 15.2 4.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 22.0% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.3 14.7 7.0 0.4 100.0%
14-4 18.5% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.5 10.0 7.4 1.1 0.1 100.0%
13-5 12.1% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 1.8 4.2 6.1 1.7 0.2 100.0%
12-6 6.8% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.2 1.3 3.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.2% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.7 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.4% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.1% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.5 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.1 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 88.4 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 89.5 10.5