IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+24.1	#2
Expected Predictive Rating	+33.4	#1

Pace	76.2	#29
Improvement	-0.2	#193

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#4	A	B	B	A-	C
Defense	#3	A	A	B-	B+	A+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	46%	#19	1.42	#5	+10.4	#3
2 Pt. Jumpers	26%	#72	0.87	#49	+3.8	#31
Three Pointers	27%	#363	1.15	#23	-5.1	#328
1st FG Attempt			1.20	#10	+9.1	#10
Freethrows	0.37	#13	74%	#116	0.27	#21
Second Chance	40.2%	#7	0.97	#263	0.39	#47
Turnovers					14.2%	#45
Total Offense					+12.0	#4

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	30%	#349	0.90	#4	+9.0	#3
2 Pt. Jumpers	32%	#5	0.70	#78	-3.3	#356
Three Pointers	39%	#256	0.92	#60	+3.1	#63
1st FG Attempt			0.84	#4	+8.8	#4
Freethrows	0.24	#24	69%	#44	0.16	#18
Second Chance	23.2%	#5	0.85	#14	0.20	#4
Turnovers					18.6%	#74
Total Defense					+12.1	#3

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.4%	#222	-4.0%	#7
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	18.2%	#2	-13.7%	#9
Possession Length	14.7	#11	17.8	#267
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.30	#5	0.10	#17
Improvement	-0.6	#214	+0.4	#169

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	26.7%	27.1%	19.4%
#1 Seed	77.4%	78.0%	66.9%
Top 2 Seed	98.6%	98.7%	96.4%
Top 4 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	1.2	1.2	1.4

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	78.8%	80.0%	56.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	99.6%	99.7%	99.4%
Sweet Sixteen	82.5%	82.8%	77.9%
Elite Eight	60.4%	60.6%	55.6%
Final Four	40.2%	40.4%	34.7%
Championship Game	24.8%	25.0%	20.5%
National Champion	14.6%	14.7%	12.6%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 95.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

1 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	8 - 2	8 - 2
Quad 1b	7 - 1	15 - 3
Quad 2	6 - 0	21 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 0	24 - 3
Quad 4	7 - 0	31 - 3

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	5 Florida	W	93 - 87	59%	+1	1 - 0		+28	+18	A+	B	C	+9	B+	A+	B+
Fri, Nov 7	210 Utah Tech	W	93 - 67	99%	+11	2 - 0		+20	+16	A+	D-	C	+4	A	C	B-
Tue, Nov 11	313 Northern Arizona	W	84 - 49	100%	+24	3 - 0		+23	+2	B-	C	D-	+21	A+	A+	A+
Fri, Nov 14	35 UCLA	W	69 - 65	83%	-1	4 - 0		+18	+5	B-	A-	D+	+13	C+	A+	A+
Wed, Nov 19	9 @Connecticut	W	71 - 67	51%	+4	5 - 0		+28	+19	C+	A+	A-	+10	B+	A+	F
Mon, Nov 24	288 Denver	W	103 - 73	100%	+23	6 - 0		+20	+12	A+	D	F	+5	B+	C	A-
Sat, Nov 29	307 Norfolk St.	W	98 - 61	100%	+17	7 - 0		+25	+14	B-	B	B+	+9	C+	B-	C
Sat, Dec 6	28 Auburn	W	97 - 68	86%	+15	8 - 0		+42	+22	A+	A	B-	+18	A+	A	A+
Sat, Dec 13	20 Alabama	W	96 - 75	74%	+7	9 - 0		+38	+21	A+	C+	A+	+16	C+	A+	A+
Tue, Dec 16	267 Abilene Christian	W	96 - 62	99%	+21	10 - 0		+25	+15	A+	A	D-	+8	A-	A-	C+
Sat, Dec 20	43 San Diego St.	W	68 - 45	87%	+5	11 - 0		+35	+11	B-	A	A-	+26	A+	A+	F+
Mon, Dec 22	236 Bethune-Cookman	W	107 - 71	99%	+15	12 - 0		+29	+20	A+	B-	D-	+5	F	A+	A+
Mon, Dec 29	177 South Dakota St.	W	99 - 71	99%	+16	13 - 0		+24	+13	A-	A+	D	+8	A	C-	B-
Sat, Jan 3	104 @Utah	W	97 - 78	93%	+15	14 - 0	1 - 0	+26	+18	B+	A	B+	+7	A+	C	C+
Wed, Jan 7	92 Kansas St.	W	101 - 76	96%	+14	15 - 0	2 - 0	+28	+14	B	A+	A+	+10	A+	A	F+
Sat, Jan 10	51 @TCU	W	86 - 73	84%	+12	16 - 0	3 - 0	+26	+17	A-	B+	A+	+9	A+	B	C
Wed, Jan 14	77 Arizona St.	W	89 - 82	95%	+3	17 - 0	4 - 0	+12	+16	B+	A+	A+	-4	D+	A+	D
Sat, Jan 17	44 @Central Florida	W	84 - 77	81%	+6	18 - 0	5 - 0	+22	+11	A	D-	B-	+10	A+	C	B-
Wed, Jan 21	52 Cincinnati	W	77 - 51	93%	+7	19 - 0	6 - 0	+33	+19	D	A+	A+	+16	A+	B+	A
Sat, Jan 24	57 West Virginia	W	88 - 53	94%	+19	20 - 0	7 - 0	+41	+23	A+	C-	A+	+19	A+	A+	C
Mon, Jan 26	15 @BYU	W	86 - 83	60%	+8	21 - 0	8 - 0	+24	+16	A+	D	C+	+9	B+	A+	B-
Sat, Jan 31	77 @Arizona St.	W	87 - 74	89%	+4	22 - 0	9 - 0	+24	+13	B-	A-	B-	+10	A	B+	C
Sat, Feb 7	56 Oklahoma St.	W	94 - 76	95%
Mon, Feb 9	14 @Kansas	W	79 - 76	60%
Sat, Feb 14	17 Texas Tech	W	85 - 76	81%
Wed, Feb 18	15 BYU	W	87 - 78	79%
Sat, Feb 21	6 @Houston	L	73 - 74	49%
Tue, Feb 24	47 @Baylor	W	86 - 76	82%
Sat, Feb 28	14 Kansas	W	82 - 73	78%
Mon, Mar 2	4 Iowa St.	W	81 - 76	68%
Sat, Mar 7	72 @Colorado	W	88 - 75	89%
Totals						29 - 2	16 - 2	+24	+12	A	B	B	+12	A	A	B-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st														0.0	2.6	15.7	28.2	23.5	8.8	78.8	1st
2nd														0.6	6.2	6.3	1.0			14.2	2nd
3rd													0.1	1.8	2.5	0.2				4.6	3rd
4th													0.4	1.3	0.1					1.8	4th
5th												0.0	0.3	0.1						0.5	5th
6th											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0						0.2	6th
7th											0.0	0.0								0.0	7th
8th																					8th
9th																					9th
10th																					10th
11th																					11th
12th																					12th
13th																					13th
14th																					14th
15th																					15th
16th																					16th

Total											0.0	0.1	0.9	3.9	11.3	22.1	29.2	23.5	8.8		Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0	100.0%	8.8	8.8
17-1	100.0%	23.5	22.9	0.6
16-2	96.5%	28.2	21.9	6.2	0.1
15-3	70.8%	15.7	6.0	7.7	2.0	0.0
14-4	22.5%	2.6	0.1	0.7	1.1	0.6	0.1
13-5	0.3%	0.0			0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9

Total	78.8%	78.8	59.7	15.1	3.2	0.6	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0	8.8%	100.0%	48.3%	51.7%	1.1	8.0	0.8																100.0%
17-1	23.5%	100.0%	42.5%	57.5%	1.1	20.5	3.0																100.0%
16-2	29.2%	100.0%	38.8%	61.2%	1.2	23.7	5.4	0.1															100.0%
15-3	22.1%	100.0%	33.5%	66.5%	1.3	16.2	5.8	0.2															100.0%
14-4	11.3%	100.0%	27.5%	72.5%	1.4	7.0	4.0	0.4															100.0%
13-5	3.9%	100.0%	17.6%	82.4%	1.7	1.7	1.8	0.4	0.0														100.0%
12-6	0.9%	100.0%	15.8%	84.2%	2.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.0														100.0%
11-7	0.1%	100.0%	16.7%	83.3%	2.7	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0														100.0%
10-8	0.0%						0.0	0.0		0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	100.0%	37.0%	63.0%	1.2																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2
Win Out	4.3%	100.0%	1.1	94.9	5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	1.8%	100.0%	1.1	92.1	7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.9%	100.0%	1.1	86.1	13.9