Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#11
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#95
Pace77.1#23
Improvement+3.2#31

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#21
First Shot+5.7#45
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#53
Layup/Dunks+9.4#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#295
Freethrows+1.8#74
Improvement+0.3#150

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#11
First Shot+6.8#19
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#75
Layups/Dunks+8.0#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#245
Freethrows+0.9#113
Improvement+2.9#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.7% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 7.7% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 23.0% 25.0% 11.4%
Top 6 Seed 42.6% 45.6% 25.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.1% 78.8% 60.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.7% 76.6% 57.9%
Average Seed 6.2 6.0 7.1
.500 or above 86.4% 89.0% 71.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.9% 87.7% 69.2%
Conference Champion 9.4% 10.6% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four6.1% 5.7% 8.0%
First Round73.8% 76.7% 57.2%
Second Round56.4% 59.1% 40.9%
Sweet Sixteen30.3% 32.1% 20.0%
Elite Eight14.9% 15.9% 9.1%
Final Four7.2% 7.7% 3.9%
Championship Game3.2% 3.5% 1.6%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 0.7%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 12
Quad 25 - 212 - 13
Quad 33 - 015 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.3 +7.8 +4.7
  Nov 09, 2024 308   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +46.9 +18.1 +25.7
  Nov 15, 2024 34   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 53%     2 - 1 +0.3 +7.4 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 40%     2 - 2 +4.7 -5.7 +10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 122   Davidson W 104-71 89%     3 - 2 +35.5 +19.6 +12.3
  Nov 28, 2024 35   Oklahoma L 77-82 64%     3 - 3 +7.3 +9.3 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 39   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 66%     3 - 4 +4.7 +7.4 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 228   Southern Utah W 102-66 97%     4 - 4 +29.4 +16.1 +10.0
  Dec 14, 2024 20   UCLA L 54-57 55%     4 - 5 +11.9 -3.5 +15.1
  Dec 18, 2024 118   Samford W 96-64 93%     5 - 5 +31.9 +17.1 +14.1
  Dec 21, 2024 237   Central Michigan W 94-41 97%     6 - 5 +45.8 +19.8 +26.0
  Dec 30, 2024 66   TCU W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 07, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 75-74 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 81   Central Florida W 83-71 86%    
  Jan 14, 2025 12   Baylor W 79-76 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 18   @ Texas Tech L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 21, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-76 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 76   Colorado W 81-69 86%    
  Jan 27, 2025 6   Iowa St. L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 01, 2025 59   @ Arizona St. W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 04, 2025 42   @ BYU W 81-79 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Texas Tech W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   @ Kansas St. W 79-73 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   Houston L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 17, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 22, 2025 42   BYU W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 26, 2025 65   Utah W 85-74 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 6   @ Iowa St. L 77-83 28%    
  Mar 04, 2025 59   Arizona St. W 82-72 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   @ Kansas L 75-80 34%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 4.1 0.7 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.4 4.3 1.0 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.5 1.5 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.3 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.7 9.5 12.2 14.0 14.3 12.9 10.2 6.4 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 94.5% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
17-3 78.1% 2.8    1.8 0.9 0.1 0.0
16-4 45.3% 2.9    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
15-5 15.7% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.4% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.3 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.4% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 3.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.2% 99.9% 16.4% 83.5% 4.2 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 12.9% 99.8% 12.8% 87.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 3.5 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 14.3% 99.0% 8.5% 90.4% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.2 4.0 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
12-8 14.0% 93.6% 5.8% 87.8% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.0 2.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.9 93.2%
11-9 12.2% 77.2% 3.5% 73.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 2.6 0.1 2.8 76.4%
10-10 9.5% 39.2% 2.6% 36.5% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.8 37.5%
9-11 6.7% 9.5% 2.0% 7.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.1 7.7%
8-12 4.2% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 1.0%
7-13 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 76.1% 8.9% 67.2% 6.2 2.4 4.4 6.9 9.2 10.1 9.6 9.6 7.3 5.4 5.1 5.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.9 73.7%