Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#10
Expected Predictive Rating+15.4#24
Pace74.5#42
Improvement+2.4#77

Offense
Total Offense+9.7#13
First Shot+7.1#25
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#37
Layup/Dunks+9.4#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+1.7#82
Improvement+1.4#107

Defense
Total Defense+8.1#17
First Shot+6.8#21
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#72
Layups/Dunks+7.7#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
Freethrows+0.9#113
Improvement+1.0#132
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.4%
#1 Seed 10.3% 14.3% 5.5%
Top 2 Seed 30.1% 39.7% 18.9%
Top 4 Seed 72.5% 81.9% 61.4%
Top 6 Seed 92.3% 96.9% 86.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.9% 98.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.9% 98.5%
Average Seed 3.6 3.1 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 24.6% 33.7% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.8%
First Round99.3% 99.9% 98.6%
Second Round89.3% 92.3% 85.8%
Sweet Sixteen54.9% 58.6% 50.6%
Elite Eight28.0% 31.7% 23.7%
Final Four13.4% 15.3% 11.1%
Championship Game6.2% 7.3% 4.8%
National Champion2.7% 3.2% 2.2%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.5 +7.6 +5.1
  Nov 09, 2024 275   Old Dominion W 102-44 98%     2 - 0 +49.2 +19.8 +26.3
  Nov 15, 2024 17   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 45%     2 - 1 +4.0 +9.1 -2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 39%     2 - 2 +6.6 -5.7 +11.8
  Nov 27, 2024 126   Davidson W 104-71 92%     3 - 2 +35.1 +18.5 +13.0
  Nov 28, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 77-82 67%     3 - 3 +8.2 +9.6 -1.4
  Nov 29, 2024 39   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 72%     3 - 4 +4.9 +8.7 -3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 268   Southern Utah W 102-66 98%     4 - 4 +27.5 +16.6 +7.5
  Dec 14, 2024 29   UCLA L 54-57 63%     4 - 5 +11.3 -6.0 +17.0
  Dec 18, 2024 109   Samford W 96-64 93%     5 - 5 +33.4 +20.3 +12.5
  Dec 21, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 94-41 98%     6 - 5 +47.0 +20.0 +27.2
  Dec 30, 2024 68   TCU W 90-81 87%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +14.4 +29.1 -14.0
  Jan 04, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati W 72-67 71%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +17.2 +9.5 +7.7
  Jan 07, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 75-56 63%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +33.4 +19.2 +16.1
  Jan 11, 2025 62   Central Florida W 88-80 85%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +14.5 +10.5 +3.4
  Jan 14, 2025 20   Baylor W 81-70 67%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +24.3 +15.1 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 54-70 41%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +4.1 -8.2 +11.7
  Jan 21, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 92-78 84%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +21.1 +26.4 -5.0
  Jan 25, 2025 98   Colorado W 78-63 92%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +17.4 +11.4 +6.7
  Jan 27, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 86-75 OT 59%     14 - 6 8 - 1 +26.5 +12.1 +13.1
  Feb 01, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 81-72 73%     15 - 6 9 - 1 +20.5 +10.4 +9.5
  Feb 04, 2025 33   @ BYU W 79-77 54%    
  Feb 08, 2025 12   Texas Tech W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 11, 2025 55   @ Kansas St. W 78-73 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Houston L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 17, 2025 20   @ Baylor L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 33   BYU W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 84   Utah W 85-72 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 75-78 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 81-70 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 74-78 35%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 7.9 9.1 4.7 0.9 24.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.2 15.3 11.9 3.0 0.1 34.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 10.1 6.5 0.6 18.8 3rd
4th 0.4 4.8 4.9 0.4 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.2 0.9 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.6 11.6 20.1 24.1 20.3 12.1 4.8 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9
18-2 97.9% 4.7    3.9 0.8
17-3 75.4% 9.1    5.4 3.5 0.2
16-4 38.8% 7.9    2.1 4.2 1.4 0.1
15-5 7.8% 1.9    0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 12.5 9.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.4 0.6 0.3 100.0%
18-2 4.8% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 1.6 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.1% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.0 3.5 5.7 2.5 0.5 100.0%
16-4 20.3% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.6 2.8 6.6 7.3 3.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 24.1% 100.0% 14.4% 85.6% 3.4 0.9 4.2 8.2 7.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-6 20.1% 99.9% 10.6% 89.3% 4.4 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.5 5.6 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.6% 99.4% 6.3% 93.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.1 3.2 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 4.6% 96.3% 4.5% 91.8% 7.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 96.2%
11-9 1.2% 80.0% 4.2% 75.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 79.1%
10-10 0.2% 47.8% 4.3% 43.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 45.5%
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 13.6% 85.8% 3.6 10.3 19.8 22.9 19.5 12.8 7.1 3.4 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 58.3 41.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 61.5 38.5