Boston College
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 139
Results Rating -2.2 201
Pace 65.5 261
Improvement +1.3 135

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 242 C- C B- D D+
Defense B- 69 B B+ D+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 324 C- 57% 208 -3.7 310
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 182 B- 42% 64 +2.0 76
Three Pointers 43% 135 D+ 31% 285 -0.4 192
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 289 C- -1.3 222
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 245
Second Chance C 30.6% 176 C- 0.99 234 C 0.30 194
Turnovers B- 15.1% 79
Freethrows C- 0.29 237 F 65% 360 D 0.19 311
Total Offense C- -2.6 242

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 48% 183 C 10.6% 157
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 261 B 3.2% 61
Three Pointers D+ 79% 289 C- 1.1% 243
Total D+ 51% 274 B- 4.7% 83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 159 B- 55% 85 -0.8 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 91 B- 35% 84 +0.3 214
Three Pointers 38% 280 B+ 30% 37 -3.9 35
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 123 B+ -4.1 42
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 45
Second Chance B- 27.4% 71 B+ 0.89 24 B+ 0.24 33
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 274
Freethrows C+ 0.29 162 A+ 66% 5 B- 0.19 76
Total Defense B- +3.9 69

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 65 B 14.6% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 110 B- 6.9% 71
Three Pointers C+ 82% 131 B- 1.3% 87
Total B 49% 59 B+ 7.8% 39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 239 17.5 220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 285 0.15 93
Improvement +3.4 #38 -2.2 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 162 140 122
Results Rating Rank 230 185 156
Conference Record 2 - 16 3 - 15 4 - 14
Conference Finish 18 17 15
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 61% 33% 76%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Home) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 8
Quad 21 - 71 - 15
Quad 34 - 45 - 19
Quad 45 - 210 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 116 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 83 OT 32% -2  22% 0 - 1 C +1 D+ -3 D A+ C- B +5 C+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 6 348 The Citadel W 76 - 47 94% +11  73% 1 - 1 B+ +13 D+ -3 F C A+ A+ +17 A+ A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 303 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 60 88% +4  88% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -19 F F D- A- +7 C A C+
 Sat, Nov 15 156 @Temple W 76 - 71 43% +5  89% 2 - 2 B- +8 C+ +2 D B A- B+ +6 A+ C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 259 Hampton W 63 - 52 82% +12  97% 3 - 2 C+ +2 F+ -9 F C+ B- A+ +13 A C B+
 Fri, Nov 21 113 Davidson L 49 - 59 43% -3  13% 3 - 3 D+ -7 F -14 D- D+ F B+ +5 B+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 162 Tulane L 90 - 93 OT 56% -1  31% 3 - 4 C- -3 B- +5 C- C A D- -8 C F F
 Wed, Nov 26 146 Harvard W 73 - 60 64% +9  98% 4 - 4 B +11 C+ +3 A- F A+ A- +8 A+ C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 53 LSU L 69 - 78 OT 28% -4  13% 4 - 5 C- -2 F -10 D+ D+ D- A +9 A+ A D+
 Sat, Dec 6 321 New Haven W 67 - 63 91% -3  21% 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -4 B+ F F D -5 C+ C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 185 Massachusetts L 74 - 76 61% -3  20% 5 - 6 C- -4 D+ -4 F C- A C +0 A+ F B
 Mon, Dec 22 333 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 61 92% -2  32% 6 - 6 C- -3 C +1 C- A- A- C- -2 C+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 300 Le Moyne W 72 - 64 87% +2  72% 7 - 6 C- -3 F -11 C F C- A- +8 A- B C
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Georgia Tech L 53 - 65 39% -2  26% 7 - 7 0 - 1 D+ -8 F -19 F D B A+ +12 B A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 24 North Carolina St. L 71 - 79 14% -7  3% 7 - 8 0 - 2 C+ +5 A +11 A+ A- F D- -8 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 11 @Louisville L 62 - 75 4% +1  65% 7 - 9 0 - 3 B +9 D+ -4 C+ F A+ A+ +13 B- A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 41 @Clemson L 50 - 74 9% -11  17% 7 - 10 0 - 4 D+ -8 F -12 B+ D- F B- +2 B D C+
 Sat, Jan 17 73 Syracuse W 81 - 73 OT 37% -2  13% 8 - 10 1 - 4 B+ +13 C +0 C+ D+ A+ A+ +12 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 98 Pittsburgh W 65 - 62 46% +1  54% 9 - 10 2 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 C C+ B+ A +9 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 86 @Notre Dame L 64 - 68 21% +4  71% 9 - 11 2 - 5 B- +6 C- -1 D- A+ B- B+ +6 A+ D- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 22 Virginia L 66 - 73 12% +1  55% 9 - 12 2 - 6 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ B- B- B +4 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 2 @Duke L 49 - 67 2% -14  0% 9 - 13 2 - 7 B +10 D -5 C+ D C A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 39 Miami (FL) L 68 - 74 20% -4  2% 9 - 14 2 - 8 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- B- A+ A- +7 C A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 11 77 Stanford L 64 - 70 37% -4  14% 9 - 15 2 - 9 C -1 D- -7 C- D+ B- B+ +6 C+ A C+
 Sat, Feb 14 70 California L 75 - 86 35% -11  0% 9 - 16 2 - 10 D+ -6 B+ +8 C+ A+ D F -15 F B D
 Tue, Feb 17 80 @Florida St. L 72 - 80 19% +7  77% 9 - 17 2 - 11 C+ +2 B- +5 B+ D- A+ C- -2 C+ B- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 31 @SMU L 70 - 94 7% -8  18% 9 - 18 2 - 12 D+ -6 B- +4 D- B+ A F -12 F A+ F
 Tue, Feb 24 65 Wake Forest L 69 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 39 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 79 8%
 Tue, Mar 3 57 @Virginia Tech L 63 - 75 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 86 Notre Dame L 67 - 69 41%
Totals 10 - 21 3 - 15 +1 C- -3 F C- D+ B- +4 D+ F D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- D+ C- 33% 38% 43% D+ C- C C- C B- C- F D B- B- B- B+ B+ 39% 23% 38% C+ B B- B+ B+ D+ C+ A+ B-
1.05 57% 42% 31% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.0 .30 15% .29 65% .19 1.03 55% 35% 30% -4 0 0.93 27% 0.9 .24 15% .29 66% .19
Nov
3		 Florida Atlantic D+ F F B F+ 47% 9% 44% B+ D B+ A+ A+ C- B+ F D B A A+ F B 54% 11% 34% F C+ A+ A A+ D F+ A+ B-
0.97 42% 0% 38% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.4 .44 17% .36 50% .18 1.04 45% 14% 48% -3 +2 1.02 19% 0.9 .17 15% .37 52% .19
Nov
6		 The Citadel D+ B+ A+ F F 33% 16% 51% D+ F C+ C- C A+ A+ F A A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% F A+ A B- A- C F A+ C-
1.15 71% 63% 19% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 6% .45 61% .27 0.71 42% 0% 21% -20 +1 0.65 20% 0.9 .17 18% .37 50% .19
Nov
11		 Central Connecticut St. F D- B+ F F 33% 16% 51% D F C+ F F D- F A F A- A D F+ C 31% 33% 37% C C F+ A+ A C+ A- A+ A+
0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14 0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11
Nov
15		 Temple C+ F A+ D- D- 40% 11% 49% B+ D B- B B A- D F F+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ 52% 19% 30% F A+ F+ B C- F D- C+ D-
1.11 41% 83% 30% -5 +1 0.95 33% 1.2 .38 12% .26 63% .16 1.03 43% 30% 25% -13 +1 0.78 35% 0.9 .30 7% .42 74% .31
Nov
18		 Hampton F+ F+ A+ F F 31% 20% 49% D+ F B- C- C+ B- D A- C A+ D A- A+ A 27% 29% 44% B- A D+ C+ C B+ A- A+ A+
0.97 53% 60% 17% -10 -1 0.82 31% 1.0 .31 15% .35 74% .26 0.80 62% 29% 19% -12 -2 0.75 36% 0.9 .31 22% .28 43% .12
Nov
21		 Davidson F C+ A F D 26% 32% 42% D- D- A- F D+ F C+ F D+ B+ B- F A+ B 25% 30% 45% A+ B+ A+ B- A+ F D- D- D-
0.85 60% 50% 19% -5 -2 0.87 38% 0.7 .25 24% .32 57% .18 1.02 55% 62% 25% 0 -2 0.98 17% 1.0 .17 12% .33 71% .24
Nov
23		 Tulane B- F+ B B- C- 33% 24% 43% D C- F+ A+ C A A+ A A+ D- F+ B+ A+ C 48% 24% 28% C C C+ F F F F B+ F
1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41 1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37
Nov
26		 Harvard C+ B C- A A 31% 15% 54% C- A- F F F A+ F A+ D- A- A+ F A+ A 41% 33% 26% A A+ A- F C+ D- A+ D+ A+
1.13 63% 38% 39% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .17 90% .16 0.93 41% 56% 21% -6 -1 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 15% .11 83% .09
Dec
3		 LSU F C- F C+ C- 31% 27% 42% D D+ D+ D D+ D- B C B- A B- C+ A+ A+ 40% 33% 28% A+ A+ C+ A+ A D+ B F C+
0.91 53% 27% 35% -4 -1 0.91 26% 0.8 .21 18% .34 67% .23 1.03 57% 37% 19% -7 -1 0.84 33% 0.9 .31 13% .30 85% .26
Dec
6		 New Haven D+ C- A- A+ A+ 18% 28% 55% F B+ B F F F A+ C- A+ D A- F A C- 23% 34% 43% A+ C+ F+ A+ C+ D- F F F
1.08 57% 45% 45% +11 -2 1.20 33% 0.5 .15 24% .49 74% .36 1.01 50% 53% 26% -2 -3 0.93 28% 0.7 .19 16% .46 83% .38
Dec
10		 Massachusetts D+ C F F F 56% 4% 40% A+ F A- F C- A A+ B+ A+ C A+ D A+ A+ 43% 33% 24% B+ A+ F F F B F A+ C-
1.05 60% 0% 11% -14 +3 0.80 35% 0.8 .28 13% .57 77% .44 1.08 43% 44% 25% -8 -1 0.84 44% 1.4 .59 21% .43 54% .23
Dec
22		 Fairleigh Dickinson C A- A+ F+ C 23% 16% 60% D+ C- A C+ A- A- A+ F C+ C- A+ C- C- C 26% 20% 54% B- C+ C A B+ F A C- A
1.19 70% 71% 31% +5 -1 1.12 38% 1.0 .38 12% .47 56% .26 1.01 38% 40% 33% -5 -1 0.90 32% 0.7 .22 10% .18 70% .13
Dec
28		 Le Moyne F D+ D A+ C+ 33% 27% 40% D- C D F F C- B+ F C+ A- B- A+ B A 44% 15% 42% D+ A- D A+ B C C A+ B+
0.99 53% 29% 43% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.6 .17 15% .37 65% .24 0.88 54% 13% 30% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .19 21% .33 58% .19
Jan
3		 Georgia Tech F F F F F 28% 23% 49% C- F C- F+ D B B F C+ A+ F A+ A+ B 44% 31% 24% B- B D A+ A+ B- F C+ F
0.75 33% 25% 15% -24 -1 0.53 27% 0.9 .25 14% .33 65% .21 0.92 70% 21% 27% -2 -1 0.96 35% 0.4 .13 20% .51 69% .35
Jan
6		 North Carolina St. A A- D+ A+ A+ 45% 16% 39% B- A+ A+ D+ A- F A+ B+ A+ D- A+ D+ F B- 42% 20% 38% B- B- D F F F A+ A+ A+
1.17 65% 33% 53% +14 +1 1.32 40% 0.9 .36 26% .49 73% .36 1.30 33% 40% 58% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.5 .51 7% .21 50% .11
Jan
10		 Louisville D+ D B- C+ B 17% 36% 47% F C+ F+ F F A+ D+ F F A+ F C A C+ 39% 15% 46% B+ B- A+ A+ A+ B F B- F
0.89 50% 38% 33% -2 -4 0.91 16% 0.4 .07 9% .25 44% .11 1.08 83% 43% 29% +7 +1 1.17 20% 0.7 .13 19% .44 76% .33
Jan
13		 Clemson F B C- A- A- 38% 30% 33% C- B+ D+ F D- F C F F B- A+ D+ F B 38% 23% 40% A B C F D C+ F+ B D
0.76 60% 33% 38% +1 -1 1.03 19% 0.7 .13 29% .28 38% .11 1.13 44% 45% 42% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.2 .35 15% .41 70% .29
Jan
17		 Syracuse C D+ F A+ B- 35% 32% 33% F+ C+ D- B- D+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ D- A+ F B 48% 21% 31% C B A A+ A+ A+ D B- C-
1.06 50% 22% 42% -4 -2 0.91 24% 1.2 .29 10% .42 72% .31 0.95 68% 0% 44% +1 +1 1.06 24% 0.4 .11 23% .38 64% .24
Jan
21		 Pittsburgh D+ D- A+ C B- 25% 31% 44% F C D- A+ C+ B+ D F F+ A A A+ B+ A+ 45% 16% 39% D+ A+ B- D- C- F C A+ A
1.02 50% 53% 33% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .25 14% .24 62% .15 0.97 48% 13% 30% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.1 .38 11% .30 41% .12
Jan
24		 Notre Dame C- B- C- F D- 26% 22% 52% C- D- B- A+ A+ B- D+ F D- B+ C- D+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A- A+ C F D- F+ F B+ D
1.00 62% 36% 23% -8 -1 0.84 28% 1.7 .47 14% .25 64% .16 1.06 64% 43% 19% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .39 12% .39 64% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Virginia C+ A+ A- F A 33% 39% 28% D- B+ C- A B- B- A+ F A B D- F+ A+ A 46% 15% 38% C- A- B+ A+ A+ F C C C
1.01 67% 44% 23% +1 -3 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .47 58% .27 1.12 67% 50% 20% -2 +1 1.00 36% 0.6 .23 11% .31 72% .22
Feb
3		 Duke D C+ A F C+ 33% 24% 43% C+ C+ C- F D C C- F F+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 55% 9% 36% D+ A A+ B A+ C- D B- D+
0.80 53% 45% 25% -6 -1 0.89 20% 0.6 .11 20% .18 44% .08 1.09 71% 0% 25% -1 +3 1.05 23% 1.1 .26 15% .38 70% .27
Feb
7		 Miami (FL) D+ C- D- D- D- 25% 29% 46% D D- D- A+ B- A+ F C+ F+ A- C- B+ D+ C+ 58% 13% 29% F+ C A+ A+ A+ B+ F A+ C+
0.97 53% 29% 30% -7 -2 0.85 18% 1.7 .30 10% .16 70% .11 1.06 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.8 .21 19% .44 52% .23
Feb
11		 Stanford D- D+ B+ F C- 38% 33% 29% D C- F A+ D+ B- F C- F B+ F A+ B+ C 40% 11% 49% B- C+ A+ F A C+ A+ C A+
0.93 52% 44% 25% -4 -2 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 18% .14 75% .11 1.02 71% 17% 31% 0 +1 1.06 16% 1.4 .23 16% .19 73% .14
Feb
14		 California B+ C- B+ D+ B 34% 32% 34% F C+ A+ A+ A+ D C+ F D+ F F C+ F F 29% 16% 55% D+ F A D- B D B+ B- A-
1.16 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 43% 1.5 .63 19% .30 56% .17 1.33 73% 38% 50% +18 0 1.37 20% 1.2 .24 12% .28 75% .21
Feb
17		 Florida St. B- D- B+ A+ A 25% 36% 38% F B+ F C- D- A+ D- F F C- A- F C C 31% 16% 53% B+ C+ C+ B- B- D+ F D F
1.08 50% 45% 48% +8 -3 1.13 20% 0.9 .18 10% .22 23% .05 1.20 50% 57% 33% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .34 12% .59 77% .46
Feb
21		 SMU B- D- F C+ D- 23% 27% 50% D D- A+ D B+ A A D- B+ F F C- D- F 42% 18% 40% F+ F D- A+ A+ F F B F
1.07 50% 14% 35% -8 -2 0.83 43% 0.9 .37 14% .35 65% .23 1.43 90% 44% 40% +18 +1 1.40 41% 0.6 .24 6% .41 72% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.6 0.1 0.7 14th
15th 0.9 8.0 2.8 0.0 11.8 15th
16th 10.0 9.6 0.4 20.0 16th
17th 12.3 27.2 2.7 0.0 42.2 17th
18th 19.9 5.3 0.1 25.2 18th
Total 32.2 43.4 20.4 3.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 3.8% 3.8
4-14 20.4% 20.4
3-15 43.4% 43.4
2-16 32.2% 32.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 32.2%