California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.3 70
Results Rating +11.6 50
Pace 68.6 175
Improvement -2.5 278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 74 B C- B B+ D+
Defense B- 72 B+ B- C- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 318 B- 62% 90 -1.8 248
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 206 C 39% 153 +0.9 127
Three Pointers 44% 120 A- 39% 18 +4.9 37
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 273 B+ +4.6 47
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 70
Second Chance D+ 27.9% 250 C+ 1.07 116 C- 0.30 207
Turnovers B 14.6% 54
Freethrows B- 0.34 75 B+ 78% 16 B+ 0.26 37
Total Offense B- +4.5 74

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 58% 44 C 11.4% 202
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 295 C+ 4.8% 173
Three Pointers C- 81% 246 D+ 1.2% 277
Total C+ 59% 110 C+ 5.4% 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 200 B 53% 63 -2.2 102
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 222 C 38% 171 -0.7 133
Three Pointers 43% 110 A 28% 6 -2.6 69
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 204 A- -5.5 24
1st FG Attempt B+ 0.91 37
Second Chance B- 28.2% 93 B- 0.98 100 B- 0.28 76
Turnovers C- 16.4% 201
Freethrows C+ 0.30 166 A+ 65% 1 B- 0.19 70
Total Defense B- +3.8 72

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 158 C+ 12.5% 109
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 229 C- 4.2% 215
Three Pointers F+ 92% 354 C 0.9% 156
Total C- 57% 218 C 5.9% 149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 89 18.0 283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 155 0.13 55
Improvement -0.9 #232 -1.6 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 86 70 55
Results Rating Rank 65 53 45
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 11 - 7
Conference Finish 11 9 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 24% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15% 24% 10%
Average Seed 10.7 10.6 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 73% 94% 61%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four11% 15% 8%
First Round8% 15% 5%
Second Round2% 4% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 7
Quad 22 - 46 - 10
Quad 37 - 113 - 11
Quad 48 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 332 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 97% +14  99% 1 - 0 B+ +13 C +1 A- C+ D A +10 B A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 153 Wright St. W 77 - 67 85% +6  88% 2 - 0 B- +7 C- -1 C F B+ A- +8 A+ C F
 Mon, Nov 10 208 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 90% +16  98% 3 - 0 A +22 B +6 D C A+ A+ +14 A A- B
 Thu, Nov 13 96 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 48% -14  4% 3 - 1 B- +6 A +14 A+ B D- F+ -8 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 277 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94% +3  77% 4 - 1 C +0 C+ +2 B C F+ C+ +1 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 276 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 94% +18  94% 5 - 1 A- +15 C+ +3 A F C+ A +10 A+ C- C-
 Tue, Nov 25 37 UCLA W 80 - 72 30% +2  52% 6 - 1 A +22 B+ +9 A F A+ A+ +13 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 99 Utah W 79 - 72 73% +1  64% 7 - 1 B +9 B- +5 B B- C+ B +4 B+ B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 117 Pacific W 67 - 61 79% +9  99% 8 - 1 B- +6 C+ +2 B+ C+ C B +5 A C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 275 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  50% 9 - 1 C -0 C+ +3 D+ A- C- C- -3 F+ C A-
 Fri, Dec 19 350 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  96% 10 - 1 A+ +30 A +14 A A B A+ +17 A B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 203 Columbia W 74 - 56 89% +11  96% 11 - 1 B+ +13 C- -1 C+ D- A A+ +15 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 11 Louisville L 70 - 90 23% -16  0% 11 - 2 0 - 1 C- -4 C -0 D- C- A+ D+ -3 C+ C D+
 Fri, Jan 2 86 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 67% -2  34% 12 - 2 1 - 1 C+ +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -1 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 22 @Virginia L 60 - 84 14% -12  3% 12 - 3 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -4 D F A- C -1 C+ D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 57 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 33% +2  61% 12 - 4 1 - 3 B +10 A- +9 B A D+ C+ +0 B+ B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 56 - 71 11% -3  37% 12 - 5 1 - 4 B- +7 D+ -3 C F+ B+ A +9 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 27 North Carolina W 84 - 78 36% +11  98% 13 - 5 2 - 4 A +18 A +13 A A+ F+ B+ +5 B A- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 77 @Stanford W 78 - 66 41% +1  57% 14 - 5 3 - 4 A +23 B +7 B C A A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 80 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 42% -5  14% 14 - 6 3 - 5 B +8 F+ -8 F C A- A+ +16 A- A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 39 @Miami (FL) W 86 - 85 22% -2  36% 15 - 6 4 - 5 A- +17 A+ +21 B+ C A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 140 Georgia Tech W 90 - 85 83% +6  87% 16 - 6 5 - 5 C+ +3 B +7 A+ F D+ D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 7 41 Clemson L 55 - 77 43% -13  17% 16 - 7 5 - 6 D- -12 F+ -9 C F D- D -5 F+ D+ C+
 Wed, Feb 11 73 @Syracuse L 100 - 107 2OT 40% +0  48% 16 - 8 5 - 7 C+ +4 B +7 B- A B- C -1 D+ B- D
 Sat, Feb 14 139 @Boston College W 86 - 75 65% +11  99% 17 - 8 6 - 7 A- +15 A+ +23 A+ C B+ D- -7 C+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 21 77 Stanford W 72 - 66 64% +8  97% 18 - 8 7 - 7 B +11 C +0 D C- A A +10 A+ D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 25 31 SMU L 78 - 82 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 98 Pittsburgh W 74 - 68 72%
 Wed, Mar 4 140 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Mar 7 65 @Wake Forest L 75 - 78 38%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +8 B- +4 B B+ D+ B- +4 A- B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B- C A- B+ 33% 35% 44% D+ B D+ C+ C- B B- B+ B+ B- B C A A- 38% 19% 43% C- B+ B- B- B- C- C+ A+ B-
1.15 62% 39% 39% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.1 .30 15% .34 78% .26 1.03 53% 38% 28% -6 0 0.91 28% 1.0 .28 16% .30 65% .22
Nov
3		 Cal St. Bakersfield C A+ A+ F A- 47% 14% 39% B A- B- C- C+ D B+ C B+ A A B- B+ B+ 51% 33% 16% F+ B C+ A+ A+ A- F A+ F
1.19 75% 86% 25% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.0 .40 19% .42 72% .30 0.82 43% 33% 29% -10 -1 0.80 31% 0.5 .14 23% .54 63% .34
Nov
6		 Wright St. C- A- A+ F C 36% 23% 41% C- C C- F F B+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ 31% 17% 52% C A+ A- F C F B- A+ A
1.11 69% 60% 22% +2 0 1.05 29% 0.5 .15 14% .52 84% .44 0.96 35% 67% 21% -12 0 0.78 25% 1.4 .34 11% .29 56% .16
Nov
10		 Cal St. Fullerton B F+ F B+ D- 36% 15% 49% C D C C+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ A 38% 23% 39% C+ A C- A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
1.20 52% 22% 38% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 10% .43 87% .38 0.84 61% 36% 21% -7 0 0.87 27% 0.6 .16 18% .17 45% .08
Nov
13		 Kansas St. A B C+ A+ A+ 33% 19% 48% C A+ C A+ B D- F+ A- D F+ F+ B- F F 62% 5% 33% F F A F F A F B+ D
1.23 61% 40% 54% +16 0 1.33 32% 1.4 .46 22% .23 79% .18 1.26 71% 33% 50% +15 +4 1.40 26% 2.0 .52 22% .34 67% .23
Nov
18		 Presbyterian C+ B A+ C+ B+ 43% 25% 32% D B B+ F C F+ B+ F C C+ A+ C B A+ 32% 30% 39% B+ A+ F C- F C- A- C+ A-
1.16 63% 55% 36% +7 0 1.16 38% 0.8 .31 19% .34 56% .19 0.99 29% 38% 29% -12 -2 0.75 46% 1.1 .49 19% .26 67% .17
Nov
21		 Sacramento St. C+ B+ A+ A- A+ 32% 11% 58% C- A D F F C+ D+ F F A A+ A+ A A+ 35% 24% 41% D+ A+ F A+ C- C- F D+ F
1.21 67% 83% 39% +12 +1 1.28 29% 0.9 .26 16% .30 53% .16 0.89 26% 23% 27% -19 -1 0.63 36% 0.9 .32 15% .47 80% .37
Nov
25		 UCLA B+ F D A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C+ A F+ F F A+ B+ B A- A+ B A- A A+ 33% 29% 38% C+ A+ C B B- B- D- A+ B
1.13 45% 33% 55% +6 0 1.13 21% 0.7 .15 11% .35 77% .27 1.02 56% 31% 29% -6 -1 0.87 33% 1.1 .36 16% .39 57% .22
Dec
2		 Utah B- C A B- B+ 38% 28% 34% D B C- A+ B- C+ A+ A+ A+ B C B B+ A- 41% 11% 48% D B+ A- C- B C- C- C C-
1.16 58% 50% 35% +4 -1 1.08 27% 1.3 .33 15% .41 92% .38 1.06 59% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 15% .33 74% .24
Dec
6		 Pacific C+ B C- A+ A- 25% 36% 39% D- B+ C+ C- C+ C A+ F B- B A+ A+ D- A+ 45% 23% 32% C A F A+ C+ C A- D B+
1.10 64% 38% 41% +5 -3 1.07 27% 1.0 .27 15% .44 57% .25 1.00 43% 27% 40% -6 0 0.89 45% 0.7 .33 20% .20 80% .16
Dec
13		 Northwestern St. C+ D+ F A+ D+ 38% 15% 48% C+ D+ C- A+ A- C- B A A C- D+ A- F F 26% 28% 46% B F+ A F C A- B- F C-
1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31 1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25
Dec
19		 Morgan St. A B+ F A+ A+ 50% 14% 36% C A F A+ A B D- A+ B+ A+ D+ D- A+ A 35% 29% 35% C A A+ F B B- C A+ A-
1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36 0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20
Dec
21		 Columbia C- A+ F C+ B- 33% 29% 38% F+ C+ D D D- A A B+ A+ A+ B- F A+ A- 64% 6% 30% F B- A+ A+ A+ C+ B A+ A
1.10 71% 27% 35% +1 -1 1.02 24% 0.9 .21 9% .39 79% .31 0.84 53% 67% 27% -5 +4 1.00 24% 0.1 .03 22% .23 50% .12
Dec
30		 Louisville C F F+ C- F+ 31% 21% 48% B D- D- A- C- A+ A+ A- A+ D+ B+ D- F B- 43% 3% 53% D C+ D- B C D+ A F A-
0.98 31% 27% 32% -12 -1 0.77 19% 1.1 .21 11% .43 78% .33 1.26 56% 50% 42% +6 +3 1.19 39% 0.9 .37 14% .23 86% .20
Jan
2		 Notre Dame B A+ A+ F B- 20% 18% 62% C- C+ C- D- D+ A+ F C+ F+ C A+ F C- A- 25% 17% 58% C B+ C+ A+ A+ F F A F
1.14 73% 60% 26% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.9 .20 5% .20 75% .15 1.13 42% 50% 36% -1 0 1.00 32% 0.6 .19 11% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Virginia D+ A- D+ F D 27% 37% 37% D- D F F F A- A A+ A+ C D F A C+ 39% 12% 49% C C+ C+ D- D+ C+ F A- D
0.88 62% 33% 17% -10 -3 0.76 16% 0.7 .11 13% .37 86% .32 1.23 65% 83% 28% +4 +1 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 16% .40 65% .26
Jan
10		 Virginia Tech A- B C+ C B 40% 21% 40% C+ B A+ B A D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ A+ A 44% 11% 44% F B+ D A B- C F F F
1.12 63% 40% 32% +1 0 1.04 41% 1.1 .45 19% .39 90% .35 1.17 70% 20% 25% -3 +2 1.00 37% 0.9 .33 15% .55 87% .47
Jan
14		 Duke D+ F A+ F C+ 24% 33% 43% D- C D F F+ B+ A+ A A+ A C F A+ A+ 39% 4% 57% C A+ C A- B+ C B A+ A+
0.87 33% 56% 24% -7 -3 0.84 18% 0.3 .06 17% .32 76% .24 1.10 63% 100% 21% -6 +2 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 15% .31 47% .15
Jan
17		 North Carolina A D- C+ A+ A 25% 31% 43% D A C A+ A+ F+ A- B A B+ F A C+ B 31% 20% 49% B B A- B A- B+ F A D-
1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21 1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29
Jan
24		 Stanford B C+ F A+ B+ 24% 29% 47% D- B C- C+ C A A- B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F F D- F
1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33 0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37
Jan
28		 Florida St. F+ D- F D F 19% 31% 50% F F F+ A+ C A- C- C+ C A+ D- C A+ B+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A- A- A+ A+ F+ D A+ B+
0.90 50% 25% 31% -8 -3 0.81 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 73% .19 0.93 67% 38% 25% -4 -2 0.91 27% 0.3 .07 10% .34 52% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Miami (FL) A+ A+ F A A 26% 30% 44% D- B+ C- B C A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F B- A C 44% 31% 24% A+ B- A+ F F F F C F
1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40 1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38
Feb
4		 Georgia Tech B C B- A+ A+ 23% 32% 45% F+ A+ D- F F D+ A+ C A+ D+ C+ F A- B 48% 10% 43% F C+ A F C- F A A+ A+
1.17 55% 40% 57% +15 -3 1.28 22% 0.5 .11 18% .62 72% .44 1.10 57% 50% 30% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .38 10% .20 50% .10
Feb
7		 Clemson F+ C- C C B- 37% 37% 26% D- C F+ F F D- C+ A+ B+ D D F F F 33% 15% 52% B F+ A+ F D+ C+ C A+ B+
0.85 53% 35% 33% -3 -2 0.91 14% 0.0 .00 22% .30 87% .26 1.19 67% 57% 42% +12 0 1.26 15% 2.3 .33 15% .35 58% .20
Feb
11		 Syracuse B C C- B- B 36% 24% 39% D+ B- C+ A+ A B- B B B+ C F D A C- 51% 15% 34% D- D+ C B B- D F A- F
1.11 54% 31% 35% -3 -1 0.95 32% 1.6 .50 18% .34 76% .26 1.18 74% 44% 29% +6 +2 1.18 33% 0.9 .30 13% .54 60% .32
Feb
14		 Boston College A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 16% 55% C+ A+ F+ A+ C B+ C- A+ B- D- B- D+ B C+ 34% 32% 34% B+ C+ F F F B+ C- A C+
1.33 73% 38% 50% +18 0 1.37 20% 1.2 .24 12% .28 75% .21 1.16 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 43% 1.5 .63 19% .30 56% .17
Feb
21		 Stanford C F D- B- D+ 26% 30% 43% D- D A F C- A B+ A- A A A+ A+ A A+ 41% 8% 51% C A+ B F D+ C- F A+ F+
1.04 43% 31% 35% -6 -2 0.87 37% 0.7 .27 14% .39 83% .32 0.95 35% 0% 28% -17 +2 0.71 31% 1.2 .38 14% .49 62% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 1.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.7 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 5.8 2.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 3.2 13.5 0.1 16.8 8th
9th 0.0 5.7 25.8 8.0 39.5 9th
10th 0.2 11.2 8.2 0.2 19.8 10th
11th 1.3 4.8 0.2 6.4 11th
12th 2.5 0.5 3.0 12th
13th 0.6 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 4.7 22.2 37.6 27.9 7.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 7.5% 44.7% 0.4% 44.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.1 4.2 44.5%
10-8 27.9% 25.0% 0.2% 24.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 5.0 0.3 20.9 24.8%
9-9 37.6% 10.5% 0.1% 10.4% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2 0.4 33.7 10.4%
8-10 22.2% 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 21.7 2.4%
7-11 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.2 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.3%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 0.2% 14.7% 10.7 85.1 14.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 85.0% 9.3 20.0 25.0 31.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 70.4% 9.8 0.5 0.5 6.5 16.1 28.0 18.8
Lose Out 2.6%