California
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#128
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#146
Pace70.4#141
Improvement-2.5#308

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#82
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#153
Layup/Dunks+2.2#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+2.0#70
Improvement-0.4#212

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#220
First Shot-1.4#220
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks+2.5#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#269
Freethrows+1.0#109
Improvement-2.1#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.9 10.7 11.0
.500 or above 15.7% 36.4% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 21.7% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.2% 6.8% 21.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 8.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 9
Quad 22 - 53 - 14
Quad 33 - 46 - 18
Quad 47 - 113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 260   Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-73 83%     1 - 0 +4.7 +6.5 -2.3
  Nov 07, 2024 271   Cal Poly W 91-73 84%     2 - 0 +9.1 +5.8 +2.0
  Nov 13, 2024 50   @ Vanderbilt L 69-85 14%     2 - 1 -2.5 -4.2 +2.9
  Nov 17, 2024 71   @ USC W 71-66 20%     3 - 1 +15.8 +8.4 +7.7
  Nov 21, 2024 269   Air Force W 78-69 84%     4 - 1 +0.2 +5.8 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2024 335   Sacramento St. W 83-77 92%     5 - 1 -7.7 +4.1 -12.0
  Nov 27, 2024 358   Mercyhurst W 81-55 95%     6 - 1 +8.9 +6.9 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2024 54   @ Missouri L 93-98 15%     6 - 2 +7.9 +17.1 -8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 94   Stanford L 81-89 48%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -5.6 +13.0 -19.1
  Dec 10, 2024 131   Cornell L 80-88 62%     6 - 4 -9.3 +0.1 -9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 290   Northwestern St. W 84-66 86%     7 - 4 +8.0 +14.4 -4.8
  Dec 21, 2024 38   San Diego St. L 50-71 18%     7 - 5 -9.2 -12.2 +1.9
  Jan 01, 2025 30   @ Pittsburgh L 70-84 9%    
  Jan 04, 2025 37   @ Clemson L 67-80 11%    
  Jan 08, 2025 92   Virginia L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 11, 2025 138   Virginia Tech W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 22   @ North Carolina L 75-91 7%    
  Jan 18, 2025 79   @ North Carolina St. L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 22, 2025 70   Florida St. L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 104   Miami (FL) W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 41   @ SMU L 74-87 13%    
  Feb 01, 2025 100   Syracuse W 81-80 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 79   North Carolina St. L 73-75 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   Wake Forest L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 2   @ Duke L 62-85 2%    
  Feb 15, 2025 112   @ Georgia Tech L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 94   @ Stanford L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 26, 2025 41   SMU L 77-84 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 167   Boston College W 78-73 68%    
  Mar 05, 2025 45   @ Louisville L 72-84 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame L 69-77 23%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.7 0.5 0.0 7.4 12th
13th 0.1 2.1 5.3 1.7 0.1 9.2 13th
14th 0.1 1.2 5.4 3.7 0.3 10.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.6 1.3 0.0 12.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.8 4.2 6.8 2.4 0.1 14.4 16th
17th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 14.3 17th
18th 0.3 1.4 3.3 4.1 2.0 0.3 11.4 18th
Total 0.3 1.5 4.3 9.0 13.1 16.2 16.0 14.3 10.9 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 18.6% 1.7% 16.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.2%
13-7 0.3% 5.2% 1.9% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3%
12-8 0.8% 3.5% 1.2% 2.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4%
11-9 2.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.7%
10-10 4.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 4.1 0.1%
9-11 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 7.0
8-12 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 10.9
7-13 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.3
6-14 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 16.0
5-15 16.2% 16.2
4-16 13.1% 13.1
3-17 9.0% 9.0
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 1.5% 1.5
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%