California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 #84
Expected Predictive Rating +12.0 #45
Pace 68.5 #205
Improvement -3.0 #323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #86 B C- A- B- C-
Defense #81 B+ B C A C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.24 #92 -0.8 #208
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #152 0.84 #64 +1.5 #97
Three Pointers 44% #135 1.11 #60 +3.5 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #72 +4.2 #71
Freethrows 17.6 #174 78% #38 13.7 #113
Second Chance 27.4% #274 1.06 #174 0.29 #251
Turnovers 13.6% #27
Total Offense +3.6 #86

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #172 1.02 #38 +2.4 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.76 #198 +0.9 #133
Three Pointers 43% #124 0.89 #47 +1.7 #121
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #49 +4.9 #48
Freethrows 14.4 #44 63% #2 9.1 #346
Second Chance 28.1% #90 0.97 #92 0.27 #72
Turnovers 16.7% #177
Total Defense +3.4 #81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #244 0.8% #242
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #52 -10.3% #35
Possession Length 16.7 #127 18.2 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #154 0.15 #99
Improvement -1.7 #281 -1.3 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 17.7% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.2% 17.3% 6.8%
Average Seed 10.1 9.9 10.3
.500 or above 96.0% 99.2% 94.4%
.500 or above in Conference 29.0% 44.7% 21.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.2% 1.3% 5.6%
First Four5.3% 7.6% 4.1%
First Round7.1% 12.8% 4.4%
Second Round2.3% 4.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 32.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 8
Quad 24 - 46 - 11
Quad 36 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 294 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 94%  +14  1 - 0 +17 +6 A+ C D- +9 B- A+ A
 Thu, Nov 6 148 Wright St. W 77 - 67 81%  +6  2 - 0 +8 +3 B F A +5 A+ C F
 Mon, Nov 10 232 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 90%  +16  3 - 0 +21 +7 D C- A+ +11 A+ A A
 Thu, Nov 13 74 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 35%  -14  3 - 1 +8 +17 A+ A- F -9 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 289 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94%  +3  4 - 1 -0 +5 B- C+ F -3 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 296 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 94%  +18  5 - 1 +13 +7 A+ F C +4 A+ B D-
 Tue, Nov 25 38 UCLA W 80 - 72 28%  +2  6 - 1 +21 +12 A+ F A+ +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 2 117 Utah W 79 - 72 74%  +1  7 - 1 +7 +7 B C C +1 A- B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 144 Pacific W 67 - 61 80%  +9  8 - 1 +4 +3 B+ C C+ +2 A+ C C
 Sat, Dec 13 288 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 93%  +1  9 - 1 -1 +4 F A+ C- -4 D- C- A
 Fri, Dec 19 362 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98%  +22  10 - 1 +28 +16 A A B+ +13 A B C
 Sun, Dec 21 139 Columbia W 74 - 56 80%  +11  11 - 1 +16 +3 B- D A+ +14 A- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 15 Louisville L 70 - 90 23%  -16  11 - 2 0 - 1 -5 +1 D- C- A+ -6 C C C-
 Fri, Jan 2 59 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 53%  -2  12 - 2 1 - 1 +7 +12 B C- A+ -4 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 22 @Virginia L 60 - 84 13%  -5  12 - 3 1 - 2 -5 -3 D F B -3 B B B+
 Sat, Jan 10 68 @Virginia Tech L 72 - 77 33% 
 Wed, Jan 14 6 Duke L 69 - 80 15% 
 Sat, Jan 17 26 North Carolina L 72 - 77 32% 
 Sat, Jan 24 79 @Stanford L 71 - 75 36% 
 Wed, Jan 28 111 @Florida St. L 79 - 80 49% 
 Sat, Jan 31 36 @Miami (FL) L 71 - 81 19% 
 Wed, Feb 4 114 Georgia Tech W 77 - 71 72% 
 Sat, Feb 7 39 Clemson L 68 - 71 39% 
 Wed, Feb 11 69 @Syracuse L 71 - 75 34% 
 Sat, Feb 14 151 @Boston College W 71 - 67 64% 
 Sat, Feb 21 79 Stanford W 74 - 72 58% 
 Wed, Feb 25 28 SMU L 75 - 80 34% 
 Sat, Feb 28 82 Pittsburgh W 73 - 70 60% 
 Wed, Mar 4 114 @Georgia Tech W 75 - 74 51% 
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Wake Forest L 73 - 78 32% 
Totals 18 - 12 7 - 11 +7 +4 B C- A- +3 B+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.2 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.5 3.3 2.4 0.2 6.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.3 2.9 0.1 9.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.8 5.3 0.7 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.0 1.6 6.5 2.3 0.1 10.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 4.8 4.5 0.4 0.0 10.2 13th
14th 0.2 2.8 5.7 1.5 0.0 10.2 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 4.7 2.6 0.1 8.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.9 0.4 7.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 18th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.8 6.8 11.6 15.4 17.5 16.1 12.6 8.6 4.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 12.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 97.6% 2.4% 95.1% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
13-5 0.8% 89.0% 2.6% 86.5% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 88.7%
12-6 2.1% 75.7% 2.8% 72.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 75.0%
11-7 4.7% 49.0% 0.8% 48.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 2.4 48.6%
10-8 8.6% 33.2% 0.5% 32.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 0.0 5.8 32.9%
9-9 12.6% 15.5% 0.3% 15.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.1 10.6 15.3%
8-10 16.1% 3.8% 0.1% 3.7% 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 15.5 3.7%
7-11 17.5% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.3 1.0%
6-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 11.6
4-14 6.8% 6.8
3-15 2.8% 2.8
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 10.4% 0.3% 10.2% 10.1 89.6 10.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%