IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

California
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.9	#116
Expected Predictive Rating	+3.4	#121

Pace	69.3	#155
Improvement	-1.7	#268

Offense
Total Offense	+3.5	#81

First Shot	+2.8	#98
After Offensive Rebound	+0.7	#134

Layup/Dunks	+1.7	#122
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.3	#307
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.8	#148
Freethrows	+2.5	#47

Improvement	-2.3	#305

Defense
Total Defense	-0.6	#190

First Shot	-0.6	#199
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.0	#196

Layups/Dunks	+3.1	#70
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.8	#344
3 Pt Jumpshots	-1.3	#252
Freethrows	+0.4	#156

Improvement	+0.6	#157

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	11.5	11.5	n/a

.500 or above	13.2%	21.5%	5.1%
.500 or above in Conference	3.0%	5.3%	0.7%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.4%	2.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Home) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 5	0 - 5
Quad 1b	1 - 4	1 - 9
Quad 2	2 - 4	3 - 13
Quad 3	3 - 4	6 - 17
Quad 4	8 - 1	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	258	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	86-73	85%	1 - 0		+5.0	+4.7	-0.2
Nov 07, 2024	276	Cal Poly	W	91-73	86%	2 - 0		+9.1	+5.8	+2.0
Nov 13, 2024	57	@ Vanderbilt	L	69-85	19%	2 - 1		-3.7	-3.8	+1.4
Nov 17, 2024	54	@ USC	W	71-66	18%	3 - 1		+17.4	+8.0	+9.8
Nov 21, 2024	277	Air Force	W	78-69	86%	4 - 1		+0.1	+5.8	-5.2
Nov 24, 2024	337	Sacramento St.	W	83-77	93%	5 - 1		-8.0	+3.7	-11.8
Nov 27, 2024	353	Mercyhurst	W	81-55	95%	6 - 1		+10.4	+7.7	+4.7
Dec 03, 2024	23	@ Missouri	L	93-98	9%	6 - 2		+12.5	+19.8	-6.8
Dec 07, 2024	78	Stanford	L	81-89	42%	6 - 3	0 - 1	-3.1	+14.3	-17.9
Dec 10, 2024	122	Cornell	L	80-88	62%	6 - 4		-8.2	+0.1	-8.0
Dec 14, 2024	293	Northwestern St.	W	84-66	88%	7 - 4		+8.4	+15.6	-5.6
Dec 21, 2024	52	San Diego St.	L	50-71	24%	7 - 5		-10.8	-11.5	-0.5
Jan 01, 2025	47	@ Pittsburgh	L	74-86	16%	7 - 6	0 - 2	+1.3	+10.1	-9.5
Jan 04, 2025	32	@ Clemson	L	68-80	11%	7 - 7	0 - 3	+4.4	+12.5	-9.9
Jan 08, 2025	97	Virginia	W	75-61	52%	8 - 7	1 - 3	+16.4	+10.2	+7.3
Jan 11, 2025	118	Virginia Tech	L	68-71	61%	8 - 8	1 - 4	-2.9	+1.5	-4.7
Jan 15, 2025	36	@ North Carolina	L	53-79	13%	8 - 9	1 - 5	-10.8	-14.0	+3.9
Jan 18, 2025	91	@ North Carolina St.	W	65-62	29%	9 - 9	2 - 5	+11.6	+6.1	+6.0
Jan 22, 2025	82	Florida St.	W	77-68	42%	10 - 9	3 - 5	+13.8	+12.7	+1.8
Jan 25, 2025	169	Miami (FL)	W	98-94 OT	70%	11 - 9	4 - 5	+1.4	+8.7	-7.7
Jan 29, 2025	42	@ SMU	L	65-76	15%	11 - 10	4 - 6	+3.1	-3.1	+6.5
Feb 01, 2025	104	Syracuse	L	66-75	54%	11 - 11	4 - 7	-7.1	-1.8	-5.9
Feb 05, 2025	91	North Carolina St.	L	71-72	49%
Feb 08, 2025	58	Wake Forest	L	70-74	35%
Feb 12, 2025	2	@ Duke	L	61-84	2%
Feb 15, 2025	99	@ Georgia Tech	L	74-78	32%
Feb 22, 2025	78	@ Stanford	L	72-79	24%
Feb 26, 2025	42	SMU	L	75-81	30%
Mar 01, 2025	176	Boston College	W	78-72	74%
Mar 05, 2025	27	@ Louisville	L	70-84	9%
Mar 08, 2025	83	@ Notre Dame	L	70-77	25%
Projected Record						14 - 17	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st																								1st
2nd																								2nd
3rd																								3rd
4th													0.0										0.0	4th
5th												0.0											0.0	5th
6th											0.1	0.2	0.0										0.3	6th
7th										0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0										0.7	7th
8th									0.0	0.9	1.2	0.1											2.2	8th
9th								0.0	1.4	3.4	0.6	0.0											5.4	9th
10th								0.5	5.1	2.7	0.2												8.5	10th
11th							0.0	2.6	6.7	0.8	0.0												10.1	11th
12th							0.4	7.4	4.2	0.1													12.0	12th
13th							3.3	10.1	1.4	0.0													14.8	13th
14th						0.7	9.7	5.0	0.1														15.5	14th
15th					0.0	3.8	9.2	1.1															14.1	15th
16th					1.0	7.6	3.3	0.0														11.9	16th
17th					2.2	2.0	0.1															4.3	17th
18th					0.2	0.0																0.2	18th

Total					3.4	14.2	26.0	26.7	18.8	8.0	2.5	0.5	0.0										Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8	0.0%																					0.0
11-9	0.5%	2.2%		2.2%	12.0												0.0					0.4	2.2%
10-10	2.5%	0.4%	0.4%		11.0											0.0						2.5
9-11	8.0%	0.1%	0.1%		11.0											0.0						8.0
8-12	18.8%	0.1%	0.1%		12.0												0.0					18.8
7-13	26.7%																					26.7
6-14	26.0%																					26.0
5-15	14.2%																					14.2
4-16	3.4%																					3.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	11.5											0.0	0.0					100.0	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	3.4%