California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.7 #64
Expected Predictive Rating +12.3 #49
Pace 68.5 #187
Improvement -0.7 #223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #83 B- C B+ B C-
Defense #60 B+ B C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.23 #94 -1.6 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.78 #150 +0.9 #120
Three Pointers 44% #130 1.12 #50 +3.7 #59
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #87 +3.1 #86
Freethrows 0.33 #105 78% #13 0.26 #50
Second Chance 28.0% #258 1.10 #88 0.31 #193
Turnovers 13.7% #32
Total Offense +3.9 #83

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.05 #52 +2.5 #96
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #213 0.74 #141 +0.7 #138
Three Pointers 43% #120 0.83 #9 +3.0 #64
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #31 +6.1 #30
Freethrows 0.29 #143 66% #4 0.19 #67
Second Chance 28.0% #83 0.90 #33 0.25 #42
Turnovers 16.3% #202
Total Defense +4.8 #60

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #264 0.2% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.2% #66 -12.2% #16
Possession Length 16.6 #113 18.0 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #192 0.13 #60
Improvement -1.4 #265 +0.8 #140

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.4% 29.9% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.2% 29.6% 18.0%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 71.1% 38.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four12.9% 13.5% 10.6%
First Round19.5% 21.8% 11.3%
Second Round5.8% 6.5% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 6
Quad 23 - 47 - 10
Quad 37 - 114 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 60 97% +14  1 - 0 +14 +5 A C D+ +9 B A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 144 Wright St. W 77 - 67 84% +6  2 - 0 +8 +2 C F B +6 A+ C+ F
 Mon, Nov 10 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 93 - 65 91% +16  3 - 0 +22 +9 D C A+ +10 A- A- B
 Thu, Nov 13 92 @Kansas St. L 96 - 99 49% -14  3 - 1 +6 +17 A+ B+ F+ -11 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 262 Presbyterian W 67 - 57 94% +3  4 - 1 +1 +4 B C F+ -1 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 274 Sacramento St. W 91 - 67 94% +18  5 - 1 +15 +7 A+ F+ C+ +7 A+ C C-
 Tue, Nov 25 35 UCLA W 80 - 72 31% +2  6 - 1 +22 +13 A+ F A+ +9 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 104 Utah W 79 - 72 76% +1  7 - 1 +8 +6 B- C+ C+ +2 B+ C+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 125 Pacific W 67 - 61 81% +9  8 - 1 +5 +4 B C C+ +3 A C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 270 Northwestern St. W 79 - 70 94% +1  9 - 1 -0 +4 D B+ C- -4 D C B+
 Fri, Dec 19 354 Morgan St. W 97 - 50 98% +22  10 - 1 +30 +16 A A B- +14 A- B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 183 Columbia W 74 - 56 89% +11  11 - 1 +13 +1 C D A- +13 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 16 Louisville L 70 - 90 28% -16  11 - 2 0 - 1 -5 +2 D- C- A+ -7 C C C-
 Fri, Jan 2 81 Notre Dame W 72 - 71 68% -2  12 - 2 1 - 1 +5 +9 C+ D+ A+ -4 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 25 @Virginia L 60 - 84 16% -12  12 - 3 1 - 2 -5 -3 D- F B+ -2 C+ C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 60 @Virginia Tech L 75 - 78 37% +2  12 - 4 1 - 3 +9 +12 B A C- -3 B B- C
 Wed, Jan 14 3 Duke L 56 - 71 13% -3  12 - 5 1 - 4 +6 -2 C- F+ A- +6 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 29 North Carolina W 84 - 78 37% +11  13 - 5 2 - 4 +18 +14 A- A+ F+ +4 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 86 @Stanford W 78 - 66 47% +1  14 - 5 3 - 4 +21 +9 B- C A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 101 @Florida St. L 61 - 63 54% -5  14 - 6 3 - 5 +6 -7 F C- A- +12 B+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 40 @Miami (FL) W 86 - 85 26% -2  15 - 6 4 - 5 +17 +23 B+ C A+ -7 B- F F
 Wed, Feb 4 115 Georgia Tech W 79 - 70 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 33 Clemson L 67 - 69 42%
 Wed, Feb 11 68 @Syracuse L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 127 @Boston College W 71 - 67 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 86 Stanford W 76 - 71 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 39 SMU L 77 - 79 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 93 Pittsburgh W 74 - 68 70%
 Wed, Mar 4 115 @Georgia Tech W 76 - 73 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 75 @Wake Forest L 74 - 76 42%
Totals 20 - 10 9 - 9 +9 +4 B- C B+ +5 B+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.2 2.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 1.8 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.5 6.1 0.4 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 9.2 2.8 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 9.3 7.0 0.3 18.0 8th
9th 0.4 8.3 9.8 1.4 0.0 19.9 9th
10th 0.0 2.9 7.4 1.8 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.3 4.1 2.2 0.1 6.6 11th
12th 1.2 2.8 0.3 4.2 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.1 10.9 19.6 23.8 21.6 13.2 4.7 0.9 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 83.5% 2.1% 81.4% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 83.2%
12-6 4.7% 75.9% 0.2% 75.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.1 75.9%
11-7 13.2% 57.5% 1.0% 56.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 2.5 5.6 57.0%
10-8 21.6% 38.1% 0.3% 37.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 4.7 0.1 13.3 37.9%
9-9 23.8% 22.7% 0.2% 22.5% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.8 0.1 18.4 22.5%
8-10 19.6% 8.4% 0.1% 8.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 17.9 8.3%
7-11 10.9% 1.8% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.7 1.8%
6-12 4.1% 4.1
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.4% 0.3% 27.1% 10.2 72.6 27.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 92.7% 7.9 12.7 12.7 40.0 23.6 3.6
Lose Out 0.1%