IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+23.6	#3
Expected Predictive Rating	+29.6	#3

Pace	66.8	#233
Improvement	-0.4	#207

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#5	A	A+	C+	B+	A
Defense	#4	A-	A+	B+	A	B

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	45%	#28	1.36	#15	+8.6	#7
2 Pt. Jumpers	7%	#363	1.10	#1	-3.9	#347
Three Pointers	48%	#51	1.07	#103	+4.6	#43
1st FG Attempt			1.20	#8	+9.3	#8
Freethrows	0.36	#25	72%	#182	0.26	#35
Second Chance	40.7%	#5	1.22	#19	0.49	#3
Turnovers					15.6%	#117
Total Offense					+12.0	#5

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	32%	#332	0.95	#8	+7.4	#11
2 Pt. Jumpers	24%	#66	0.67	#42	-0.3	#212
Three Pointers	44%	#86	0.92	#58	+0.5	#158
1st FG Attempt			0.87	#10	+7.6	#10
Freethrows	0.21	#6	71%	#111	0.15	#8
Second Chance	23.7%	#11	0.74	#3	0.17	#3
Turnovers					20.4%	#23
Total Defense					+11.6	#4

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	4.4%	#5	-1.9%	#44
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	13.1%	#17	-13.2%	#11
Possession Length	15.5	#35	19.5	#365
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.21	#80	0.13	#45
Improvement	+1.3	#110	-1.7	#278

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	23.2%	23.3%	12.0%
#1 Seed	72.8%	72.9%	59.1%
Top 2 Seed	97.8%	97.9%	89.3%
Top 4 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	1.3	1.3	1.5

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	95.3%	95.5%	79.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	99.6%	99.6%	100.0%
Sweet Sixteen	81.3%	81.3%	83.1%
Elite Eight	57.4%	57.5%	50.2%
Final Four	36.0%	36.1%	24.9%
Championship Game	21.3%	21.3%	14.2%
National Champion	12.2%	12.2%	8.4%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

1 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	8 - 2	8 - 2
Quad 1b	7 - 1	15 - 3
Quad 2	7 - 0	21 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 0	24 - 3
Quad 4	6 - 0	30 - 3

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	31 Texas	W	75 - 60	80%	+5	1 - 0		+30	+9	B	C	C+	+21	A+	A+	A+
Sat, Nov 8	277 Western Carolina	W	95 - 54	99%	+23	2 - 0		+32	+7	D+	A+	B-	+21	A+	A+	C+
Tue, Nov 11	336 @Army	W	114 - 59	99%	+23	3 - 0		+47	+25	A+	A+	C	+17	A	B+	A
Fri, Nov 14	198 Indiana St.	W	100 - 62	99%	+19	4 - 0		+33	+17	A-	A+	C-	+13	A	A+	A
Tue, Nov 18	14 Kansas	W	78 - 66	69%	+3	5 - 0		+30	+19	A+	A+	B	+12	A+	B-	D+
Fri, Nov 21	349 Niagara	W	100 - 42	100%	+30	6 - 0		+43	+29	A+	A+	B-	+19	A+	C+	A+
Sun, Nov 23	253 Howard	W	93 - 56	99%	+29	7 - 0		+29	+19	A+	B	B+	+10	A+	A+	D-
Thu, Nov 27	22 Arkansas	W	80 - 71	75%	+1	8 - 0		+25	+12	C+	A+	C	+14	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Dec 2	5 Florida	W	67 - 66	68%	+5	9 - 0		+20	+9	A	B+	C-	+11	A+	A	A-
Sat, Dec 6	10 @Michigan St.	W	66 - 60	52%	+0	10 - 0		+29	+13	B-	B	A+	+16	A+	A+	F
Tue, Dec 16	178 Lipscomb	W	97 - 73	99%	+5	11 - 0		+20	+7	B-	A+	F	+9	B	A+	B+
Sat, Dec 20	17 Texas Tech	L	81 - 82	72%	+4	11 - 1		+17	+14	A+	C+	B-	+3	D+	A-	C+
Wed, Dec 31	115 Georgia Tech	W	85 - 79	97%	+0	12 - 1	1 - 0	+6	+12	A	C+	C-	-6	F	A+	A
Sat, Jan 3	101 @Florida St.	W	91 - 87	92%	+0	13 - 1	2 - 0	+12	+22	A+	A	C-	-10	F	F	A
Tue, Jan 6	16 @Louisville	W	84 - 73	61%	-2	14 - 1	3 - 0	+32	+15	A+	F+	B-	+16	A+	A+	A-
Sat, Jan 10	39 SMU	W	82 - 75	89%	+4	15 - 1	4 - 0	+17	+12	A+	C	C	+5	D-	A	A+
Wed, Jan 14	64 @California	W	71 - 56	87%	+3	16 - 1	5 - 0	+27	+10	C+	A+	B-	+17	A+	A+	B
Sat, Jan 17	86 @Stanford	W	80 - 50	90%	+15	17 - 1	6 - 0	+39	+21	A-	A+	B+	+22	A+	B	A+
Sat, Jan 24	75 Wake Forest	W	90 - 69	95%	+9	18 - 1	7 - 0	+26	+27	A	A+	A+	+1	C	A+	C-
Mon, Jan 26	16 Louisville	W	83 - 52	80%	+12	19 - 1	8 - 0	+46	+23	A+	A+	C	+26	A+	A+	B+
Sat, Jan 31	60 @Virginia Tech	W	72 - 58	86%	+9	20 - 1	9 - 0	+26	+21	A+	A+	A	+8	C	A+	B
Tue, Feb 3	127 Boston College	W	81 - 56	99%
Sat, Feb 7	29 @North Carolina	W	79 - 74	70%
Tue, Feb 10	93 @Pittsburgh	W	78 - 63	91%
Sat, Feb 14	33 Clemson	W	74 - 62	88%
Mon, Feb 16	68 Syracuse	W	83 - 65	96%
Sat, Feb 21	1 Michigan	L	77 - 78	45%
Tue, Feb 24	81 @Notre Dame	W	78 - 64	90%
Sat, Feb 28	25 Virginia	W	77 - 67	83%
Mon, Mar 2	23 @North Carolina St.	W	78 - 74	65%
Sat, Mar 7	29 North Carolina	W	82 - 71	86%
Totals						28 - 3	17 - 1	+24	+12	A	A+	C+	+12	A-	A+	B+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st															1.0	8.4	25.1	36.3	24.6	95.3	1st
2nd													0.0	0.1	1.3	2.1	0.2			3.7	2nd
3rd													0.0	0.3	0.4	0.1				0.7	3rd
4th													0.0	0.1	0.0					0.2	4th
5th													0.0	0.0						0.1	5th
6th																					6th
7th																					7th
8th																					8th
9th																					9th
10th																					10th
11th																					11th
12th																					12th
13th																					13th
14th																					14th
15th																					15th
16th																					16th
17th																					17th
18th																					18th

Total													0.1	0.5	2.6	10.6	25.3	36.3	24.6		Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0	100.0%	24.6	24.6
17-1	100.0%	36.3	36.2	0.1
16-2	99.2%	25.1	21.6	3.4	0.1
15-3	79.3%	8.4	4.2	3.5	0.6	0.0
14-4	36.5%	1.0	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-5	0.0%
12-6	0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9

Total	95.3%	95.3	86.7	7.5	1.0	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0	24.6%	100.0%	57.4%	42.6%	1.1	21.3	3.3	0.0															100.0%
17-1	36.3%	100.0%	53.5%	46.5%	1.2	28.4	7.7	0.2															100.0%
16-2	25.3%	100.0%	48.2%	51.8%	1.3	17.0	7.7	0.5															100.0%
15-3	10.6%	100.0%	42.3%	57.7%	1.6	5.1	4.7	0.7	0.0														100.0%
14-4	2.6%	100.0%	39.7%	60.3%	1.9	0.9	1.3	0.5	0.0														100.0%
13-5	0.5%	100.0%	27.8%	72.2%	2.3	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0														100.0%
12-6	0.1%						0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	100.0%	51.4%	48.6%	1.3																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2
Win Out	7.5%	100.0%	1.1	92.1	7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	1.7%	100.0%	1.1	88.7	11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.8%	100.0%	1.1	86.0	14.0