Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +21.0 #6
Expected Predictive Rating +26.9 #6
Pace 69.7 #174
Improvement -4.9 #360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #8 A+ A+ C B+ A+
Defense #9 A- A+ B+ A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.35 #24 +6.9 #16
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #364 1.11 #2 -3.9 #344
Three Pointers 50% #30 1.09 #84 +6.5 #18
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #8 +9.6 #8
Freethrows 20.9 #33 72% #214 14.9 #57
Second Chance 39.2% #16 1.22 #22 0.48 #5
Turnovers 16.2% #154
Total Offense +11.4 #8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 0.98 #20 +6.1 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #75 0.66 #64 -0.2 #203
Three Pointers 43% #133 0.95 #115 +0.4 #167
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #28 +6.3 #29
Freethrows 12.6 #17 74% #239 9.3 #344
Second Chance 23.3% #9 0.82 #9 0.19 #4
Turnovers 19.3% #54
Total Defense +9.6 #9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #6 -1.7% #56
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.0% #19 -10.8% #33
Possession Length 14.9 #20 19.4 #362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #50 0.14 #70
Improvement -0.4 #216 -4.5 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.0% 6.8% 2.7%
#1 Seed 31.4% 34.3% 18.6%
Top 2 Seed 69.5% 73.5% 52.1%
Top 4 Seed 97.2% 98.1% 93.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 71.4% 76.4% 49.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.6% 98.0% 96.0%
Sweet Sixteen72.2% 72.9% 69.0%
Elite Eight43.9% 45.2% 38.2%
Final Four22.6% 23.7% 17.9%
Championship Game11.1% 11.6% 8.8%
National Champion5.1% 5.5% 3.7%

Next Game: SMU (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 213 - 5
Quad 26 - 119 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 45 Texas W 75 - 60 82%  +5  1 - 0 +26 +9 B C C +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 283 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99%  +23  2 - 0 +31 +9 D A+ B+ +18 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 330 @Army W 114 - 59 99%  +23  3 - 0 +47 +27 A+ A+ C- +16 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 191 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 98%  +19  4 - 0 +33 +17 A+ A+ C- +13 A A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 18 Kansas W 78 - 66 67%  +3  5 - 0 +29 +19 A+ A+ B+ +10 A+ B D
 Fri, Nov 21 354 Niagara W 100 - 42 100%  +30  6 - 0 +42 +27 A+ A+ B +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 271 Howard W 93 - 56 99%  +29  7 - 0 +28 +18 A+ B+ A- +9 A+ A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 19 Arkansas W 80 - 71 67%  +1  8 - 0 +25 +12 C+ A+ C- +13 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 12 Florida W 67 - 66 71%  +5  9 - 0 +16 +8 A+ B+ D- +9 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 14 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 50%  +0  10 - 0 +27 +13 B+ B A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 177 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 98%  +5  11 - 0 +20 +8 B A+ F +8 B- A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 17 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 66%  +4  11 - 1 +16 +14 A+ B- C+ +2 D A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 114 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 96%  +0  12 - 1 1 - 0 +7 +13 A+ C C -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 111 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 89%  +0  13 - 1 2 - 0 +11 +21 A+ A+ C -10 F F A
 Tue, Jan 6 15 @Louisville W 84 - 73 52%  -2  14 - 1 3 - 0 +32 +14 A+ F B +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 28 SMU W 84 - 74 81% 
 Wed, Jan 14 84 @California W 80 - 69 85% 
 Sat, Jan 17 79 @Stanford W 80 - 70 83% 
 Sat, Jan 24 62 Wake Forest W 84 - 69 92% 
 Mon, Jan 26 15 Louisville W 83 - 77 72% 
 Sat, Jan 31 68 @Virginia Tech W 80 - 71 80% 
 Tue, Feb 3 151 Boston College W 82 - 58 99% 
 Sat, Feb 7 26 @North Carolina W 77 - 74 61% 
 Tue, Feb 10 82 @Pittsburgh W 78 - 67 84% 
 Sat, Feb 14 39 Clemson W 76 - 65 85% 
 Mon, Feb 16 69 Syracuse W 82 - 66 92% 
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 77 - 83 30% 
 Tue, Feb 24 59 @Notre Dame W 75 - 66 80% 
 Sat, Feb 28 22 Virginia W 78 - 70 77% 
 Mon, Mar 2 34 @North Carolina St. W 79 - 75 65% 
 Sat, Mar 7 26 North Carolina W 80 - 71 80% 
Totals 26 - 5 15 - 3 +21 +11 A+ A+ C +10 A- A+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 7.3 17.7 21.6 17.2 6.4 71.4 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 6.6 3.7 0.7 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.2 6.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.1 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.9 4.6 9.5 15.4 21.5 22.4 17.3 6.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.4    6.4 0.0
17-1 99.7% 17.2    16.8 0.5
16-2 96.8% 21.6    18.8 2.7 0.2
15-3 82.1% 17.7    10.8 5.9 0.9 0.1
14-4 47.2% 7.3    2.1 3.2 1.6 0.4 0.1
13-5 11.6% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.4% 71.4 54.9 12.5 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.4% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 1.3 4.7 1.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 17.3% 100.0% 48.1% 51.9% 1.4 10.4 6.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 22.4% 100.0% 43.3% 56.7% 1.7 9.1 10.7 2.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.5% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 2.1 5.2 10.6 5.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.4% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 2.5 1.6 6.3 6.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.5% 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 3.0 0.3 2.1 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.6 0.1 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 1.9% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.3 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 100.0%
10-8 0.7% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 5.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.3% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 2.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 68.0 32.0