Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.2#7
Expected Predictive Rating+22.1#6
Pace74.9#47
Improvement+3.4#29

Offense
Total Offense+11.3#6
First Shot+7.6#21
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#19
Layup/Dunks+4.5#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#51
Freethrows+0.3#155
Improvement+0.1#166

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#13
First Shot+9.1#5
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#273
Layups/Dunks+2.6#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#7
Freethrows+2.0#53
Improvement+3.3#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.8% 6.8% 0.0%
#1 Seed 31.6% 31.6% 3.3%
Top 2 Seed 62.0% 62.0% 26.7%
Top 4 Seed 89.0% 89.0% 63.3%
Top 6 Seed 96.1% 96.1% 86.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.7% 96.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.6% 96.7%
Average Seed 2.5 2.5 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 96.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 93.2% 86.7%
Conference Champion 17.8% 17.8% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 3.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round99.6% 99.6% 96.7%
Second Round93.9% 93.9% 76.7%
Sweet Sixteen66.6% 66.6% 43.3%
Elite Eight40.8% 40.8% 16.7%
Final Four22.7% 22.7% 10.0%
Championship Game12.0% 12.0% 6.7%
National Champion6.2% 6.2% 3.3%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 33 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 169   South Florida W 98-83 96%     1 - 0 +14.5 +15.7 -2.5
  Nov 07, 2024 211   Jacksonville W 81-60 98%     2 - 0 +15.5 +11.6 +4.8
  Nov 11, 2024 310   Grambling St. W 86-62 99%     3 - 0 +12.7 +4.1 +7.6
  Nov 15, 2024 70   @ Florida St. W 87-74 79%     4 - 0 +23.8 +14.6 +8.4
  Nov 19, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.6%    5 - 0 +7.4 +6.9 +0.8
  Nov 22, 2024 196   Southern Illinois W 93-68 98%     6 - 0 +20.2 +16.1 +3.4
  Nov 28, 2024 89   Wake Forest W 75-58 88%     7 - 0 +23.3 +10.4 +13.4
  Nov 29, 2024 101   Wichita St. W 88-51 91%     8 - 0 +41.7 +19.7 +22.7
  Dec 04, 2024 92   Virginia W 87-69 93%     9 - 0 +20.6 +26.7 -4.6
  Dec 14, 2024 59   Arizona St. W 83-66 82%     10 - 0 +26.3 +9.9 +15.2
  Dec 17, 2024 22   North Carolina W 90-84 67%     11 - 0 +20.6 +13.5 +6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 207   North Florida W 99-45 98%     12 - 0 +48.7 +14.0 +31.6
  Dec 29, 2024 348   Stetson W 96-62 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 16   @ Kentucky W 86-85 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 3   Tennessee W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 31   @ Arkansas W 81-78 63%    
  Jan 14, 2025 54   Missouri W 86-74 88%    
  Jan 18, 2025 33   Texas W 81-71 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 63   @ South Carolina W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 36   Georgia W 81-71 83%    
  Feb 01, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 04, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 88-76 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 79-86 26%    
  Feb 11, 2025 24   @ Mississippi St. W 79-77 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 63   South Carolina W 82-68 89%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   Oklahoma W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 56   @ LSU W 82-75 73%    
  Feb 25, 2025 36   @ Georgia W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Texas A&M W 78-70 77%    
  Mar 05, 2025 9   @ Alabama L 86-88 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   Mississippi W 82-73 79%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 4.3 5.9 4.1 1.6 0.3 17.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 7.1 7.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 7.0 6.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.0 5.3 1.5 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.2 4.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 3.8 1.5 0.1 6.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 2.1 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.6 10.6 13.4 16.4 16.5 13.6 9.4 4.8 1.6 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 1.6    1.4 0.1
16-2 86.7% 4.1    3.2 0.9 0.0
15-3 62.8% 5.9    3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0
14-4 31.4% 4.3    1.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.9% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 9.8 5.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 36.7% 63.3% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.2 3.9 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.4% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.3 6.8 2.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 13.6% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 1.5 7.9 5.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.5% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 1.8 6.4 7.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.4% 100.0% 12.4% 87.6% 2.2 3.5 7.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.4% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 2.7 1.2 4.4 5.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 10.6% 100.0% 5.9% 94.1% 3.5 0.3 1.7 3.6 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.6% 100.0% 3.6% 96.4% 4.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 3.7% 99.8% 2.7% 97.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
7-11 2.0% 98.4% 1.5% 96.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.4%
6-12 0.7% 89.2% 0.5% 88.6% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.1%
5-13 0.3% 64.6% 1.4% 63.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 64.1%
4-14 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.0%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 14.6% 85.1% 2.5 31.6 30.4 17.6 9.4 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 94.4 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 97.4 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.8 4.2