Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.4 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #37
Pace 72.9 #79
Improvement -0.1 #191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #25 B- A+ C B+ A+
Defense #8 A+ A+ D+ B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #36 1.31 #41 +7.3 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #348 0.98 #11 -2.9 #316
Three Pointers 45% #107 0.84 #338 -1.8 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #110 +2.6 #110
Freethrows 20.6 #40 73% #180 15.0 #54
Second Chance 43.9% #2 1.06 #167 0.47 #13
Turnovers 16.4% #164
Total Offense +8.4 #25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #228 0.94 #8 +4.9 #39
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #5 0.70 #108 -3.3 #351
Three Pointers 32% #360 0.95 #112 +5.8 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #18 +7.4 #18
Freethrows 16.2 #129 69% #57 11.2 #274
Second Chance 22.0% #5 0.68 #1 0.15 #2
Turnovers 15.1% #275
Total Defense +10.0 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #14 -3.0% #17
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.3% #153 -12.0% #23
Possession Length 15.6 #45 18.0 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #18 0.10 #16
Improvement +0.4 #158 -0.5 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.6% 3.4% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.8% 12.6% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 47.5% 56.0% 32.4%
Top 6 Seed 76.9% 83.9% 64.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.3% 98.2% 92.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 95.6% 97.9% 91.8%
Average Seed 4.9 4.5 5.6
.500 or above 98.9% 99.6% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 95.7% 85.2%
Conference Champion 16.7% 21.6% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four2.0% 1.2% 3.6%
First Round95.6% 97.8% 91.8%
Second Round81.1% 85.4% 73.6%
Sweet Sixteen47.0% 51.3% 39.5%
Elite Eight21.1% 23.5% 17.0%
Final Four9.2% 10.3% 7.3%
Championship Game3.7% 4.2% 2.7%
National Champion1.4% 1.7% 0.9%

Next Game: Tennessee (Home) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 39 - 10
Quad 26 - 115 - 11
Quad 32 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 30%  -1  0 - 1 +18 +14 A A C +5 A- A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 350 North Florida W 104 - 64 100%  +21  1 - 1 +24 +7 F A+ F +12 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 111 Florida St. W 78 - 76 93%  +1  2 - 1 +3 -6 D+ F C- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 36 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 68%  +7  3 - 1 +28 +8 A- B- B +18 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 237 Merrimack W 80 - 45 98%  +24  4 - 1 +28 +10 D A+ C +20 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 44 TCU L 80 - 84 74%  +2  4 - 2 +8 +8 D+ A+ F +0 B B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 66 Providence W 90 - 78 82%  +9  5 - 2 +21 +14 C- A+ A+ +6 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 6 @Duke L 66 - 67 29%  -5  5 - 3 +23 +9 C A+ C- +14 A A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 5 Connecticut L 73 - 77 38%  -2  5 - 4 +18 +14 A+ D+ C+ +3 B- A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 70 George Washington W 80 - 70 83%  +8  6 - 4 +18 +6 A+ D C- +12 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 361 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100%  +25  7 - 4 +22 +17 A A+ F +4 B- A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 205 Colgate W 90 - 60 98%  +17  8 - 4 +25 +21 A- A+ C+ +6 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 230 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 98%  +21  9 - 4 +15 +13 B- A+ F +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 51 @Missouri L 74 - 76 68%  -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +12 +8 C- C- A+ +3 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 24 Georgia W 92 - 77 71%  +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +28 +15 A A B+ +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 16 Tennessee W 75 - 71 64% 
 Tue, Jan 13 48 @Oklahoma W 79 - 74 66% 
 Sat, Jan 17 7 @Vanderbilt L 77 - 82 32% 
 Tue, Jan 20 42 LSU W 81 - 72 81% 
 Sat, Jan 24 33 Auburn W 83 - 76 75% 
 Wed, Jan 28 72 @South Carolina W 76 - 69 75% 
 Sun, Feb 1 13 Alabama W 88 - 85 61% 
 Sat, Feb 7 40 @Texas A&M W 83 - 80 61% 
 Wed, Feb 11 24 @Georgia L 84 - 85 49% 
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Kentucky W 79 - 73 72% 
 Tue, Feb 17 72 South Carolina W 79 - 66 89% 
 Sat, Feb 21 71 @Mississippi W 77 - 70 75% 
 Wed, Feb 25 45 @Texas W 81 - 77 64% 
 Sat, Feb 28 19 Arkansas W 85 - 80 67% 
 Tue, Mar 3 55 Mississippi St. W 82 - 70 86% 
 Sat, Mar 7 27 @Kentucky W 76 - 75 51% 
Totals 21 - 10 12 - 6 +18 +8 B- A+ C +10 A+ A+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.7 5.1 2.2 0.5 16.7 1st
2nd 0.4 3.7 7.6 5.4 1.2 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 7.3 5.0 0.9 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 1.0 5.5 5.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.4 5.1 1.3 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.7 1.9 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.2 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.7 8.3 12.5 15.6 18.1 16.2 12.0 6.4 2.3 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 95.2% 2.2    1.9 0.3
15-3 79.8% 5.1    3.4 1.6 0.2
14-4 47.5% 5.7    2.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.2% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.7% 16.7 8.8 5.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.4% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 2.6 0.8 2.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.0% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 3.1 0.6 2.3 5.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.2% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 3.7 0.2 1.3 5.1 6.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.1% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 4.5 0.1 0.3 2.7 6.4 5.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.6% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 5.3 0.0 0.9 2.9 4.8 4.7 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.5% 99.4% 7.8% 91.6% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.7 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.4%
9-9 8.3% 96.4% 5.3% 91.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.3 96.2%
8-10 4.7% 81.9% 3.7% 78.2% 9.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 0.8 81.2%
7-11 2.1% 39.2% 2.2% 37.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.3 37.8%
6-12 0.9% 12.0% 2.2% 9.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 10.1%
5-13 0.4% 2.8% 1.4% 1.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3 1.4%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.3% 15.3% 80.9% 4.9 3.7 95.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 58.3 33.3 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 26.1 60.9 13.0