Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.2#13
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#35
Pace78.9#10
Improvement-1.6#260

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#16
First Shot+6.9#29
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#72
Layup/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#19
Freethrows+2.2#63
Improvement-0.7#223

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#13
First Shot+6.3#27
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#39
Layups/Dunks+6.9#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.4#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#13
Freethrows+2.5#36
Improvement-0.8#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.9% 3.8% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.5% 15.7% 5.2%
Top 4 Seed 48.4% 55.8% 31.3%
Top 6 Seed 82.0% 87.6% 69.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.7% 97.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.6% 97.6%
Average Seed 4.7 4.4 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.7% 90.7%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.2% 1.8%
First Round98.8% 99.5% 97.0%
Second Round82.7% 85.8% 75.5%
Sweet Sixteen46.8% 50.3% 38.7%
Elite Eight21.9% 24.0% 17.1%
Final Four10.1% 11.2% 7.5%
Championship Game4.3% 4.9% 3.1%
National Champion1.8% 2.1% 0.9%

Next Game: Rutgers (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 39 - 10
Quad 26 - 215 - 11
Quad 30 - 016 - 12
Quad 46 - 022 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +31.8 +17.0 +7.6
  Nov 08, 2024 266   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 98%     2 - 0 +23.6 +17.4 +7.0
  Nov 13, 2024 188   Oakland W 66-54 96%     3 - 0 +8.2 -8.4 +16.9
  Nov 20, 2024 5   Alabama L 87-100 40%     3 - 1 +6.7 +8.7 -0.2
  Nov 23, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99.7%    4 - 1 +27.8 +2.4 +23.7
  Nov 25, 2024 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 97%     5 - 1 +52.0 +22.7 +30.5
  Nov 28, 2024 43   Arkansas W 90-77 70%     6 - 1 +24.6 +21.5 +2.8
  Dec 06, 2024 56   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 68%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.3 -4.8 +13.4
  Dec 10, 2024 17   Wisconsin W 86-80 62%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +20.1 +13.0 +6.7
  Dec 14, 2024 6   Tennessee L 64-66 50%     7 - 3 +15.1 +7.5 +7.5
  Dec 22, 2024 23   Missouri W 80-77 58%     8 - 3 +18.1 +8.2 +9.6
  Dec 29, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 117-64 99%     9 - 3 +36.3 +26.9 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 45   @ Oregon W 109-77 62%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +46.1 +31.4 +11.3
  Jan 05, 2025 89   @ Washington W 81-77 79%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +12.7 +9.7 +2.9
  Jan 08, 2025 50   Penn St. W 91-52 81%     12 - 3 4 - 1 +46.7 +10.1 +31.9
  Jan 11, 2025 54   USC L 72-82 82%     12 - 4 4 - 2 -2.5 -3.7 +2.0
  Jan 14, 2025 53   @ Indiana W 94-69 67%     13 - 4 5 - 2 +37.6 +18.5 +16.8
  Jan 19, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 78-80 41%     13 - 5 5 - 3 +17.4 +12.0 +5.5
  Jan 23, 2025 16   Maryland L 70-91 62%     13 - 6 5 - 4 -6.8 -4.3 +0.0
  Jan 26, 2025 56   Northwestern W 83-74 82%     14 - 6 6 - 4 +16.4 +16.5 +0.1
  Jan 30, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 74-80 OT 66%     14 - 7 6 - 5 +7.1 +0.3 +7.4
  Feb 02, 2025 25   Ohio St. W 87-79 69%     15 - 7 7 - 5 +20.2 +17.3 +2.6
  Feb 05, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 08, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 29   UCLA W 76-71 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 80-82 41%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   Duke L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 60   Iowa W 92-82 85%    
  Mar 02, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 81-82 43%    
  Mar 07, 2025 9   Purdue W 78-76 59%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 1.5 2.4 1st
2nd 0.9 4.8 1.4 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 5.5 6.1 0.1 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 10.3 1.4 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 8.9 5.8 0.1 15.8 5th
6th 0.3 5.4 10.0 1.3 17.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 9.2 3.5 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.4 4.1 3.7 0.2 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.4 4.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.0 10.3 19.9 26.2 23.8 13.2 3.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 49.5% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
14-6 6.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.0% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.9 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.2% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.8 1.3 4.1 4.8 2.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-7 23.8% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 3.7 0.6 3.0 6.9 6.8 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 26.2% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 4.7 0.1 0.9 3.8 6.5 7.7 5.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 19.9% 99.8% 7.7% 92.1% 5.7 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.8 6.0 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 99.8%
10-10 10.3% 98.4% 5.4% 93.1% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 98.4%
9-11 3.0% 88.7% 3.0% 85.7% 9.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.3 88.3%
8-12 0.7% 53.0% 6.1% 47.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 50.0%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.1% 12.7% 86.5% 4.7 2.9 9.6 17.0 18.8 19.0 14.7 8.2 4.4 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.9 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 70.0 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 42.9 52.4 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.8 30.8 61.5 7.7