Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.3 #9
Expected Predictive Rating +18.2 #16
Pace 68.4 #208
Improvement +0.5 #151

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #3 A- A+ A- B- B-
Defense #18 A+ A+ F A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #243 1.39 #10 +2.9 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #300 0.84 #69 -1.5 #252
Three Pointers 49% #36 1.04 #143 +4.8 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #38 +6.2 #38
Freethrows 17.7 #169 80% #9 14.2 #90
Second Chance 41.3% #6 1.21 #30 0.50 #4
Turnovers 13.7% #30
Total Offense +12.0 #3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #358 1.00 #30 +8.9 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #4 0.63 #38 -2.4 #333
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.90 #54 +2.2 #103
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #8 +8.7 #8
Freethrows 10.4 #3 71% #123 7.4 #363
Second Chance 24.2% #19 0.90 #30 0.22 #14
Turnovers 12.8% #352
Total Defense +8.3 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #108 -4.6% #4
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.8% #37 -13.1% #13
Possession Length 17.0 #151 18.2 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #306 0.11 #23
Improvement -0.3 #210 +0.8 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.7% 0.4%
#1 Seed 8.5% 12.1% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 27.3% 36.2% 17.1%
Top 4 Seed 75.4% 84.3% 65.2%
Top 6 Seed 94.7% 98.0% 90.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
Average Seed 3.6 3.1 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.8% 98.3%
Conference Champion 9.4% 13.8% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round92.6% 94.7% 90.3%
Sweet Sixteen63.2% 67.5% 58.3%
Elite Eight33.6% 37.5% 29.1%
Final Four16.9% 19.2% 14.3%
Championship Game8.0% 9.1% 6.7%
National Champion3.6% 4.2% 2.9%

Next Game: Iowa (Away) - 53.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 8
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 342 Jackson St. W 113 - 55 100%  +33  1 - 0 +43 +25 A+ A+ C +14 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 189 Florida Gulf Coast W 113 - 70 98%  +31  2 - 0 +38 +28 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 17 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 74%  +4  3 - 0 +18 +11 B+ A+ D+ +7 C A+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 205 Colgate W 84 - 65 98%  +11  4 - 0 +14 +12 F A+ A+ +3 A B+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 13 Alabama L 86 - 90 57%  -1  4 - 1 +14 +9 A- A B- +6 A- C+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 209 LIU Brooklyn W 98 - 58 98%  +26  5 - 1 +34 +20 A+ A+ C+ +14 A- A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 220 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87 - 73 98%  +8  6 - 1 +8 +12 A+ B- B- -5 B+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 28 5 Connecticut L 61 - 74 45%  -10  6 - 2 +9 +3 C- C A +5 B+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 16 Tennessee W 75 - 62 61%  +4  7 - 2 +31 +22 A+ A+ A+ +10 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 30 @Ohio St. W 88 - 80 62%  +4  8 - 2 1 - 0 +25 +22 A+ C- A +3 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 13 23 Nebraska L 80 - 83 77%  -6  8 - 3 1 - 1 +10 +23 A+ A+ A+ -13 D C- F
 Mon, Dec 22 51 Missouri W 91 - 48 82%  +17  9 - 3 +54 +32 B+ A+ C +26 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 256 Southern W 90 - 55 99%  +20  10 - 3 +26 +21 A+ A+ F +8 A+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 105 @Penn St. W 73 - 65 88%  +10  11 - 3 2 - 1 +15 +6 F C- A+ +10 A+ B F
 Thu, Jan 8 131 Rutgers W 81 - 55 97%  +17  12 - 3 3 - 1 +25 +15 A+ F A+ +12 A A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 20 @Iowa W 72 - 71 53% 
 Wed, Jan 14 60 @Northwestern W 80 - 72 78% 
 Sat, Jan 17 76 Minnesota W 78 - 62 93% 
 Wed, Jan 21 107 Maryland W 84 - 65 96% 
 Sat, Jan 24 4 @Purdue L 73 - 78 31% 
 Thu, Jan 29 47 Washington W 82 - 70 87% 
 Sun, Feb 1 23 @Nebraska W 76 - 74 56% 
 Wed, Feb 4 60 Northwestern W 83 - 69 90% 
 Sat, Feb 7 14 @Michigan St. L 71 - 72 47% 
 Tue, Feb 10 43 Wisconsin W 83 - 72 86% 
 Sun, Feb 15 25 Indiana W 81 - 73 76% 
 Wed, Feb 18 46 @USC W 81 - 75 72% 
 Sat, Feb 21 38 @UCLA W 76 - 72 65% 
 Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 79 - 82 39% 
 Tue, Mar 3 65 Oregon W 83 - 69 91% 
 Sun, Mar 8 107 @Maryland W 81 - 68 88% 
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 6 +20 +12 A- A+ A- +8 A+ A+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 3.2 0.8 9.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.7 8.6 5.1 0.9 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 6.8 11.5 6.4 1.1 0.0 27.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.8 7.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 17.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.1 0.3 6.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.3 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.4 8.5 14.1 18.3 20.4 16.9 9.8 4.1 0.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.6 0.1
18-2 78.2% 3.2    1.8 1.3 0.2
17-3 36.6% 3.6    1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0
16-4 9.5% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 3.8 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.1% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 1.6 1.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.8% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.0 2.8 4.4 2.3 0.3 100.0%
16-4 16.9% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.5 2.2 6.1 6.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.4% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 3.1 1.0 4.3 8.6 5.4 1.1 0.1 100.0%
14-6 18.3% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.7 0.2 1.5 5.9 7.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.1% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.4 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 8.5% 99.9% 3.7% 96.2% 5.2 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 4.4% 99.7% 3.3% 96.3% 6.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
10-10 1.8% 98.9% 0.8% 98.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
9-11 0.6% 90.7% 0.8% 89.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 90.6%
8-12 0.2% 61.1% 61.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 61.1%
7-13 0.1% 0.0 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 11.9% 87.9% 3.6 0.2 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 74.2 25.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 69.0 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 52.2 47.8