Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#21
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#41
Pace75.2#41
Improvement-0.3#197

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#32
First Shot+4.5#67
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#28
Layup/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#42
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement-1.3#279

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#17
First Shot+5.8#29
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+7.2#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.6#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#14
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement+1.0#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.6% 2.6% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 8.4% 8.4% 3.1%
Top 4 Seed 28.2% 28.2% 6.2%
Top 6 Seed 52.0% 52.0% 23.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.8% 86.8% 67.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.3% 85.3% 66.1%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 7.3
.500 or above 95.4% 95.4% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 81.2% 66.2%
Conference Champion 11.2% 11.2% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 4.1% 7.7%
First Round84.9% 84.9% 63.1%
Second Round61.6% 61.7% 32.3%
Sweet Sixteen30.5% 30.5% 18.5%
Elite Eight13.3% 13.3% 3.1%
Final Four5.6% 5.6% 3.1%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 1.5%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 10
Quad 26 - 214 - 12
Quad 31 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 326   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +32.6 +16.5 +8.9
  Nov 08, 2024 281   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 98%     2 - 0 +22.6 +16.9 +6.5
  Nov 13, 2024 183   Oakland W 66-54 95%     3 - 0 +7.8 -8.9 +17.0
  Nov 20, 2024 9   Alabama L 87-100 38%     3 - 1 +4.9 +8.1 -1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99%     4 - 1 +29.9 +2.4 +25.8
  Nov 25, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 97%     5 - 1 +50.4 +20.9 +30.7
  Nov 28, 2024 31   Arkansas W 90-77 58%     6 - 1 +25.9 +21.2 +4.3
  Dec 06, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 58%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.8 -2.8 +11.9
  Dec 10, 2024 34   Wisconsin W 86-80 70%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +15.3 +10.9 +4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 3   Tennessee L 64-66 41%     7 - 3 +15.1 +5.9 +9.1
  Dec 22, 2024 54   Missouri W 80-77 68%     8 - 3 +12.9 +5.3 +7.4
  Dec 29, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 91-59 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 05, 2025 95   @ Washington W 79-73 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 32   Penn St. W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 71   USC W 81-71 82%    
  Jan 14, 2025 51   @ Indiana W 79-78 55%    
  Jan 19, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 23, 2025 13   Maryland W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 26, 2025 55   Northwestern W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 30, 2025 40   @ Nebraska W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 02, 2025 29   Ohio St. W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 80-77 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   @ Minnesota W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   UCLA W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 34   @ Wisconsin L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   Duke L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 25, 2025 43   Iowa W 87-81 72%    
  Mar 02, 2025 19   @ Michigan L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 07, 2025 27   Purdue W 78-74 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 11.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.1 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 5.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 8.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.0 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 2.6 3.6 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.2 2.6 0.2 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.7 0.1 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 1.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.2 10.9 13.5 14.8 14.1 11.6 8.4 4.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 98.9% 0.7    0.7 0.0
17-3 94.6% 2.2    1.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 73.1% 3.6    2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 38.9% 3.3    1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.8% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 59.6% 40.4% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.5 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 3.3 0.5 1.7 2.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 11.6% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 4.3 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.4 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.1% 99.9% 12.1% 87.8% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.8 3.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 14.8% 99.3% 6.7% 92.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.6 3.7 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 13.5% 97.6% 4.6% 93.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.4 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.3 97.5%
10-10 10.9% 90.3% 3.1% 87.2% 8.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.1 89.9%
9-11 8.2% 66.5% 1.9% 64.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.9 0.1 2.7 65.8%
8-12 5.3% 28.7% 1.1% 27.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 3.8 27.9%
7-13 2.9% 3.8% 0.3% 3.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.5%
6-14 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 86.8% 10.0% 76.7% 5.9 2.6 5.8 9.1 10.7 11.8 12.0 11.2 8.8 6.1 4.7 3.8 0.2 0.0 13.2 85.3%