IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+16.8	#17
Expected Predictive Rating	+15.5	#27

Pace	77.0	#17
Improvement	-3.3	#310

Offense
Total Offense	+10.3	#15

First Shot	+8.1	#21
After Offensive Rebound	+2.2	#57

Layup/Dunks	-1.2	#225
2 Pt Jumpshots	-0.5	#195
3 Pt Jumpshots	+7.3	#15
Freethrows	+2.4	#50

Improvement	+1.3	#122

Defense
Total Defense	+6.6	#40

First Shot	+4.7	#53
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.8	#51

Layups/Dunks	+6.6	#18
2 Pt Jumpshots	-9.2	#364
3 Pt Jumpshots	+5.0	#16
Freethrows	+2.3	#46

Improvement	-4.6	#350

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	1.6%	3.6%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	26.2%	52.8%	5.6%
Top 6 Seed	81.5%	97.2%	69.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	5.3	4.4	6.0

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	77.7%	84.1%	72.7%
Sweet Sixteen	39.4%	46.3%	34.0%
Elite Eight	15.5%	17.0%	14.3%
Final Four	5.8%	6.4%	5.4%
Championship Game	2.0%	2.2%	1.8%
National Champion	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%

Projected Seeding

5 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 8	4 - 8
Quad 1b	4 - 2	9 - 10
Quad 2	6 - 2	15 - 12
Quad 3	0 - 0	15 - 12
Quad 4	6 - 0	21 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	321	Eastern Illinois	W	112-67	99%	1 - 0		+32.7	+19.6	+5.9
Nov 08, 2024	232	SIU Edwardsville	W	90-58	98%	2 - 0		+25.4	+18.0	+8.2
Nov 13, 2024	184	Oakland	W	66-54	96%	3 - 0		+7.9	-8.7	+16.8
Nov 20, 2024	5	Alabama	L	87-100	34%	3 - 1		+8.1	+9.1	+0.8
Nov 23, 2024	359	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	87-40	99.6%	4 - 1		+28.2	+2.1	+24.4
Nov 25, 2024	253	Arkansas Little Rock	W	92-34	98%	5 - 1		+50.3	+20.5	+31.1
Nov 28, 2024	37	Arkansas	W	90-77	64%	6 - 1		+26.0	+22.8	+2.8
Dec 06, 2024	49	@ Northwestern	L	66-70 OT	62%	6 - 2	0 - 1	+9.8	-4.2	+14.3
Dec 10, 2024	15	Wisconsin	W	86-80	58%	7 - 2	1 - 1	+20.6	+13.9	+6.5
Dec 14, 2024	6	Tennessee	L	64-66	47%	7 - 3		+15.5	+6.0	+9.3
Dec 22, 2024	18	Missouri	W	80-77	50%	8 - 3		+19.7	+6.3	+13.3
Dec 29, 2024	362	Chicago St.	W	117-64	99.7%	9 - 3		+33.4	+23.1	+4.4
Jan 02, 2025	35	@ Oregon	W	109-77	52%	10 - 3	2 - 1	+48.4	+32.8	+12.2
Jan 05, 2025	105	@ Washington	W	81-77	83%	11 - 3	3 - 1	+10.7	+7.1	+3.4
Jan 08, 2025	58	Penn St.	W	91-52	82%	12 - 3	4 - 1	+46.1	+10.2	+31.2
Jan 11, 2025	61	USC	L	72-82	83%	12 - 4	4 - 2	-3.3	-5.6	+3.1
Jan 14, 2025	43	@ Indiana	W	94-69	59%	13 - 4	5 - 2	+39.6	+20.6	+16.7
Jan 19, 2025	8	@ Michigan St.	L	78-80	30%	13 - 5	5 - 3	+20.3	+14.6	+5.7
Jan 23, 2025	11	Maryland	L	70-91	55%	13 - 6	5 - 4	-5.5	-2.0	-1.0
Jan 26, 2025	49	Northwestern	W	83-74	79%	14 - 6	6 - 4	+17.3	+16.9	+0.7
Jan 30, 2025	57	@ Nebraska	L	74-80 OT	65%	14 - 7	6 - 5	+6.8	-0.4	+7.9
Feb 02, 2025	39	Ohio St.	W	87-79	74%	15 - 7	7 - 5	+18.1	+15.2	+2.6
Feb 05, 2025	65	@ Rutgers	L	73-82	71%	15 - 8	7 - 6	+2.0	+5.4	-3.6
Feb 08, 2025	84	@ Minnesota	W	95-74	77%	16 - 8	8 - 6	+30.2	+40.4	-7.4
Feb 11, 2025	24	UCLA	W	83-78	65%	17 - 8	9 - 6	+17.9	+20.6	-2.6
Feb 15, 2025	8	Michigan St.	L	65-79	50%	17 - 9	9 - 7	+2.8	+4.7	-2.4
Feb 18, 2025	15	@ Wisconsin	L	74-95	37%	17 - 10	9 - 8	-0.9	+7.1	-7.3
Feb 22, 2025	1	Duke	L	67-110	18%	17 - 11		-16.2	+2.6	-16.9
Feb 25, 2025	60	Iowa	W	81-61	83%	18 - 11	10 - 8	+26.9	+11.0	+16.8
Mar 02, 2025	31	@ Michigan	W	93-73	50%	19 - 11	11 - 8	+36.9	+30.1	+7.0
Mar 07, 2025	16	Purdue	W	88-80	59%	20 - 11	12 - 8	+22.5	+15.7	+6.5

Mar 13, 2025	60	Iowa	W	90-83	76%
Projected Record						21 - 11	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																							1st
2nd																							2nd
3rd																							3rd
4th																							4th
5th																							5th
6th																							6th
7th													100.0									100.0	7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																						16th
17th																						17th
18th																						18th

Total													100.0									Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8	0.0%
11-9
10-10

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8	100.0%	100.0%	11.4%	88.6%	5.3	0.1	1.5	10.2	14.4	26.0	29.3	16.1	2.3	0.0								0.0	100.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	11.4%	88.6%	5.3	0.1	1.5	10.2	14.4	26.0	29.3	16.1	2.3	0.0								0.0	100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Win Out	11.4%	100.0%	3.1	0.6	12.7	60.1	24.7	1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	12.1%	100.0%	4.2		0.6	20.1	41.7	31.8	5.6	0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	20.2%	100.0%	5.2			3.4	18.2	42.0	30.5	5.9	0.0
Lose Out	56.4%	100.0%	6.0			0.5	5.1	23.9	39.9	26.5	4.1	0.1