Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.0#7
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#13
Pace71.5#93
Improvement-0.1#196

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#24
First Shot+8.6#16
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#225
Layup/Dunks+10.0#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
Freethrows-2.1#300
Improvement-0.5#207

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#5
First Shot+7.2#17
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#3
Layups/Dunks+7.9#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#218
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement+0.4#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 9.6% 12.1% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 32.8% 38.9% 17.6%
Top 4 Seed 77.4% 83.0% 63.5%
Top 6 Seed 94.9% 97.0% 89.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Second Round92.0% 93.2% 88.9%
Sweet Sixteen61.2% 63.0% 56.7%
Elite Eight33.7% 35.6% 28.8%
Final Four17.5% 18.9% 14.1%
Championship Game8.6% 9.3% 6.6%
National Champion4.2% 4.7% 3.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Away) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 8
Quad 26 - 114 - 9
Quad 36 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 310   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +18.9 +3.0 +15.5
  Nov 08, 2024 36   North Carolina W 92-89 80%     2 - 0 +13.2 +15.0 -2.1
  Nov 12, 2024 15   Michigan St. W 77-69 58%     3 - 0 +24.9 +4.8 +19.3
  Nov 16, 2024 188   Oakland W 78-57 97%     4 - 0 +17.2 +11.0 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2024 117   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 95%     5 - 0 +18.3 +9.7 +8.6
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke W 75-72 35%     6 - 0 +26.0 +15.7 +10.4
  Nov 30, 2024 165   Furman W 86-51 97%     7 - 0 +32.7 +16.2 +18.6
  Dec 04, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 63-76 58%     7 - 1 +3.8 -0.8 +4.6
  Dec 08, 2024 23   @ Missouri L 67-76 56%     7 - 2 +8.5 -1.7 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2024 91   North Carolina St. W 75-60 92%     8 - 2 +18.6 +14.2 +6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 214   Brown W 87-53 98%     9 - 2 +28.6 +10.2 +18.2
  Dec 31, 2024 39   West Virginia L 61-62 82%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +8.4 +5.0 +3.2
  Jan 05, 2025 62   @ Central Florida W 99-48 77%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +62.4 +21.7 +36.0
  Jan 08, 2025 61   Arizona St. W 74-55 88%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +25.5 +9.7 +16.6
  Jan 11, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati W 54-40 74%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +26.2 -1.4 +29.6
  Jan 15, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 57-74 44%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +3.5 -5.8 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 84-74 86%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +17.4 +23.0 -4.6
  Jan 22, 2025 68   @ TCU W 74-61 79%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +23.4 +12.1 +11.8
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Houston L 86-92 2OT 45%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +14.2 +13.7 +1.2
  Jan 28, 2025 62   Central Florida W 91-87 88%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +10.5 +13.2 -3.1
  Feb 01, 2025 20   @ Baylor L 70-81 53%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +7.3 -2.1 +10.3
  Feb 03, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 69-52 63%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +32.5 +13.4 +21.2
  Feb 08, 2025 55   @ Kansas St. W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 11, 2025 98   Colorado W 80-63 95%    
  Feb 15, 2025 84   @ Utah W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 18, 2025 33   @ BYU W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 82-65 95%    
  Feb 24, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 78-66 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 12   Texas Tech W 74-70 66%    
  Mar 03, 2025 3   @ Houston L 63-69 27%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   Arizona W 78-74 65%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 2.1 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 3.5 9.4 1.8 14.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 13.3 5.9 0.1 22.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 11.8 10.4 0.6 24.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.2 10.2 1.7 0.0 19.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.7 1.7 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.6 6.0 14.9 26.9 29.0 17.2 4.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 52.9% 2.1    0.4 1.1 0.6 0.0
15-5 7.2% 1.2    0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.4 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.0% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.1 100.0%
15-5 17.2% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.1 4.2 8.6 3.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 29.0% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.8 2.5 9.1 10.4 5.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 26.9% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.7 0.5 3.3 7.8 9.0 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 14.9% 99.9% 9.1% 90.9% 4.7 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.1 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-9 6.0% 99.5% 7.8% 91.7% 5.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
10-10 1.6% 98.1% 3.7% 94.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.1%
9-11 0.3% 96.6% 3.4% 93.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.4%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 3.4 9.6 23.3 24.3 20.3 11.7 5.8 3.1 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.3 75.0 25.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.4 61.4 38.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 1.5 50.4 46.5 3.1