Kansas
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.6 #18
Expected Predictive Rating +16.7 #22
Pace 70.0 #164
Improvement -0.2 #193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #46 B+ A- B B- C
Defense #10 A+ A+ D- A+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #149 1.40 #9 +5.3 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.68 #268 +0.2 #167
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.08 #99 -0.5 #203
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #55 +5.0 #56
Freethrows 18.4 #127 75% #118 13.7 #110
Second Chance 33.3% #107 1.26 #9 0.42 #30
Turnovers 14.6% #60
Total Offense +7.0 #46

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #324 1.04 #55 +5.5 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #101 0.59 #14 +0.9 #131
Three Pointers 45% #78 0.73 #1 +4.3 #37
1st FG Attempt 0.80 #3 +10.7 #3
Freethrows 12.7 #19 67% #22 8.5 #355
Second Chance 25.7% #33 0.80 #6 0.21 #9
Turnovers 14.2% #314
Total Defense +9.5 #10

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #226 -1.5% #62
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.3% #42 -19.9% #3
Possession Length 16.2 #80 18.3 #324
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #69 0.11 #26
Improvement +0.6 #145 -0.8 #238

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 4.7% 6.1% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 31.7% 37.7% 19.4%
Top 6 Seed 66.1% 73.0% 51.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.1% 96.5% 89.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.9% 96.4% 88.8%
Average Seed 5.7 5.3 6.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.6% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 78.6% 85.8% 63.8%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four4.1% 2.7% 7.1%
First Round92.4% 95.4% 86.1%
Second Round71.6% 75.9% 62.6%
Sweet Sixteen34.7% 38.1% 27.6%
Elite Eight13.8% 15.5% 10.2%
Final Four5.3% 6.3% 3.3%
Championship Game1.9% 2.3% 1.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: West Virginia (Away) - 67.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 11
Quad 27 - 114 - 12
Quad 33 - 018 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 249 Green Bay W 94 - 51 98%  +23  1 - 0 +35 +24 A+ D A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 26 @North Carolina L 74 - 87 44%  -2  1 - 1 +5 +9 A+ A+ F -4 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 183 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 77 - 46 96%  +19  2 - 1 +26 +3 A+ B- F +23 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 242 Princeton W 76 - 57 98%  +6  3 - 1 +11 +0 C D F +11 A+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 18 6 Duke L 66 - 78 33%  -3  3 - 2 +9 +7 C A+ A+ +1 A+ B F
 Mon, Nov 24 59 Notre Dame W 71 - 61 76%  +6  4 - 2 +19 +9 B+ A C+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 69 Syracuse W 71 - 60 78%  +7  5 - 2 +19 +9 B+ A+ F +12 A+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 16 Tennessee W 81 - 76 46%  -3  6 - 2 +23 +18 B B A+ +4 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 5 Connecticut L 56 - 61 42%  +2  6 - 3 +14 -0 C D B+ +13 A+ C A
 Sun, Dec 7 51 Missouri W 80 - 60 80%  +8  7 - 3 +28 +14 C A+ A+ +15 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 34 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 OT 49%  +1  8 - 3 +18 +6 C D A+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 175 Towson W 73 - 49 96%  +14  9 - 3 +20 +7 C A+ B- +15 A+ B- C
 Mon, Dec 22 125 Davidson W 90 - 61 94%  +20  10 - 3 +28 +13 A+ A+ F +13 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 50 @Central Florida L 75 - 81 61%  -2  10 - 4 0 - 1 +8 +8 D+ A- B- -0 A+ A- F
 Tue, Jan 6 44 TCU W 104 - 100 OT 77%  -4  11 - 4 1 - 1 +13 +17 A+ A- A+ -5 D D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 67 @West Virginia W 70 - 65 67% 
 Tue, Jan 13 3 Iowa St. L 71 - 75 37% 
 Fri, Jan 16 32 Baylor W 79 - 73 70% 
 Tue, Jan 20 77 @Colorado W 80 - 74 71% 
 Sat, Jan 24 74 @Kansas St. W 83 - 77 70% 
 Sat, Jan 31 8 BYU L 75 - 76 47% 
 Mon, Feb 2 17 @Texas Tech L 73 - 76 39% 
 Sat, Feb 7 117 Utah W 84 - 68 94% 
 Mon, Feb 9 2 Arizona L 75 - 79 34% 
 Sat, Feb 14 3 @Iowa St. L 68 - 78 19% 
 Wed, Feb 18 54 @Oklahoma St. W 83 - 79 64% 
 Sat, Feb 21 58 Cincinnati W 75 - 65 83% 
 Mon, Feb 23 11 Houston W 68 - 67 50% 
 Sat, Feb 28 2 @Arizona L 72 - 82 17% 
 Tue, Mar 3 88 @Arizona St. W 80 - 73 74% 
 Sat, Mar 7 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 74 86% 
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +17 +7 B+ A- B +10 A+ A+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.6 1.5 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 6.3 3.0 0.2 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 8.4 4.8 0.5 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 8.1 5.0 0.6 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.8 4.3 0.9 0.0 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.2 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.4 1.6 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.2 2.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.9 6.1 10.9 15.1 17.8 17.6 13.7 8.3 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 56.5% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 13.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.5% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 2.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 4.2% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.3% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 3.4 0.2 1.1 3.3 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.7% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.1 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.5 3.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.6% 100.0% 3.8% 96.3% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.8 6.4 3.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 17.8% 99.9% 2.5% 97.4% 5.7 0.5 1.9 5.3 6.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 15.1% 99.3% 1.5% 97.8% 6.7 0.1 0.3 2.1 4.4 4.5 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
8-10 10.9% 93.7% 1.1% 92.6% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.8 2.5 0.8 0.7 93.6%
7-11 6.1% 72.6% 0.7% 71.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 0.0 1.7 72.4%
6-12 2.9% 30.6% 0.5% 30.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 30.3%
5-13 1.1% 5.4% 0.5% 5.0% 11.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 5.0%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.1% 3.9% 90.2% 5.7 5.9 93.9%