Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#31
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#27
Pace71.1#114
Improvement+1.4#119

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#31
First Shot+6.5#33
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#126
Layup/Dunks+0.8#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#40
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement+2.7#51

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#48
First Shot+3.8#64
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#62
Layups/Dunks+0.2#165
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#205
Freethrows+4.1#3
Improvement-1.4#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 5.8% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 19.5% 23.6% 10.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.8% 90.6% 81.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.9% 89.9% 80.4%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
Conference Champion 6.1% 8.0% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.3% 3.5% 6.2%
First Round85.7% 88.8% 78.5%
Second Round46.9% 50.1% 39.8%
Sweet Sixteen13.1% 14.6% 9.5%
Elite Eight4.7% 5.2% 3.5%
Final Four1.6% 1.8% 1.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 35 - 6
Quad 28 - 313 - 9
Quad 36 - 119 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 266   Morehead St. W 93-45 97%     1 - 0 +39.3 +11.5 +24.8
  Nov 09, 2024 8   Tennessee L 55-77 38%     1 - 1 -6.1 -5.2 -1.7
  Nov 19, 2024 351   Bellarmine W 100-68 99%     2 - 1 +15.9 +10.4 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 191   Winthrop W 76-61 93%     3 - 1 +10.8 -8.7 +17.8
  Nov 27, 2024 52   Indiana W 89-61 59%     4 - 1 +38.4 +19.3 +18.3
  Nov 28, 2024 33   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 51%     5 - 1 +21.5 +11.1 +10.1
  Nov 29, 2024 46   Oklahoma L 64-69 57%     5 - 2 +6.0 +1.8 +3.6
  Dec 03, 2024 25   Mississippi L 63-86 55%     5 - 3 -11.6 -1.6 -10.9
  Dec 08, 2024 1   Duke L 65-76 23%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +9.3 +4.5 +4.4
  Dec 11, 2024 150   UTEP W 77-74 91%     6 - 4 +0.8 +5.1 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 17   @ Kentucky L 85-93 26%     6 - 5 +11.5 +13.8 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 63   @ Florida St. W 90-76 54%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +25.6 +26.4 -0.4
  Dec 28, 2024 237   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 96%     8 - 5 -5.0 +0.6 -5.6
  Jan 01, 2025 26   North Carolina W 83-70 56%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +24.1 +9.4 +13.7
  Jan 04, 2025 111   @ Virginia W 70-50 74%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +26.0 +14.2 +15.2
  Jan 07, 2025 34   Clemson W 74-64 62%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +19.4 +10.4 +9.7
  Jan 11, 2025 32   @ Pittsburgh W 82-78 39%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +19.6 +16.4 +3.3
  Jan 14, 2025 100   @ Syracuse W 80-75 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 111   Virginia W 71-58 88%    
  Jan 21, 2025 50   @ SMU L 79-80 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 61   Wake Forest W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 101   @ Georgia Tech W 78-73 69%    
  Feb 05, 2025 185   @ Boston College W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 10, 2025 121   Miami (FL) W 85-72 89%    
  Feb 12, 2025 82   @ North Carolina St. W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 70   @ Notre Dame W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 63   Florida St. W 81-74 74%    
  Feb 25, 2025 134   @ Virginia Tech W 76-68 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Pittsburgh W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 123   California W 85-72 89%    
  Mar 08, 2025 91   Stanford W 82-72 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.6 6.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 8.9 15.8 13.2 5.5 0.6 46.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.1 8.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 22.8 3rd
4th 0.5 3.7 5.3 2.0 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 5.0 9.7 15.9 20.0 20.6 15.5 8.0 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 71.8% 1.6    0.7 0.9 0.0
18-2 31.0% 2.5    0.7 1.6 0.2
17-3 10.4% 1.6    0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 1.7 3.6 0.7 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 3.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.0% 99.9% 12.9% 87.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-3 15.5% 99.1% 9.2% 89.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.1 5.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
16-4 20.6% 97.0% 8.4% 88.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.7 6.2 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.6 96.7%
15-5 20.0% 92.7% 5.8% 86.9% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.8 5.9 3.0 0.4 1.5 92.3%
14-6 15.9% 84.4% 4.7% 79.7% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.8 4.2 1.1 0.0 2.5 83.7%
13-7 9.7% 70.3% 3.4% 66.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 1.3 2.9 69.3%
12-8 5.0% 55.7% 1.1% 54.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.0 2.2 55.2%
11-9 2.1% 33.0% 1.9% 31.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 1.4 31.7%
10-10 0.8% 15.7% 0.2% 15.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 15.5%
9-11 0.2% 2.5% 0.8% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 87.8% 6.9% 80.9% 7.8 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.5 9.6 15.7 18.2 17.3 12.6 4.4 0.0 12.2 86.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.1 27.5 42.7 26.4 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 3.8 0.3 5.5 29.7 43.5 20.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 4.3 0.5 7.7 19.3 25.7 25.1 21.4 0.3