Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.5 #15
Expected Predictive Rating +14.9 #33
Pace 73.8 #63
Improvement -3.2 #330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #11 A+ B B- B A-
Defense #32 A+ A- C+ C A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.38 #15 +3.2 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #358 0.84 #67 -4.3 #349
Three Pointers 55% #6 1.15 #26 +10.9 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #5 +9.8 #5
Freethrows 18.3 #134 80% #11 14.7 #66
Second Chance 36.7% #35 1.03 #211 0.38 #74
Turnovers 15.1% #91
Total Offense +11.1 #11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.05 #65 +4.7 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #14 0.60 #16 -1.0 #254
Three Pointers 38% #273 0.91 #61 +3.8 #54
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #16 +7.5 #16
Freethrows 17.1 #171 71% #113 12.1 #208
Second Chance 25.6% #30 0.95 #67 0.24 #31
Turnovers 17.5% #128
Total Defense +6.4 #32

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #27 -2.9% #20
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.8% #12 -12.1% #22
Possession Length 14.5 #8 18.7 #348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #295 0.06 #2
Improvement -2.6 #324 -0.6 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 5.4% 5.5% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 31.9% 32.3% 15.9%
Top 6 Seed 65.0% 65.5% 45.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.7% 96.9% 89.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 96.3% 88.3%
Average Seed 5.6 5.6 6.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 93.3% 76.9%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 3.5%
First Round96.0% 96.2% 88.2%
Second Round75.7% 76.1% 60.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.5% 38.9% 24.7%
Elite Eight16.2% 16.3% 10.3%
Final Four6.9% 6.9% 3.5%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 1.7%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 27 - 114 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 357 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100%  +40  1 - 0 +41 +10 A- C- F +23 A+ A A+
 Thu, Nov 6 342 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 99%  +22  2 - 0 +21 +16 A C A- +2 D- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 27 Kentucky W 96 - 88 71%  +8  3 - 0 +20 +21 A+ B- A+ -2 C+ C A
 Sat, Nov 15 170 Ohio W 106 - 81 97%  +14  4 - 0 +21 +23 A+ A+ B+ -4 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 58 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 78%  +1  5 - 0 +19 +10 B+ F B+ +9 B A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 197 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 97%  +20  6 - 0 +36 +17 A+ C A+ +21 A+ A B
 Wed, Nov 26 351 NJIT W 104 - 47 99%  +31  7 - 0 +41 +28 A+ A+ C+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 19 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 43%  -10  7 - 1 +10 +8 B- F A+ +3 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 25 Indiana W 87 - 78 58%  +12  8 - 1 +25 +16 A+ F C +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 13 78 Memphis W 99 - 73 88%  +17  9 - 1 +31 +29 A+ A+ B+ +1 A+ D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 16 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 39%  -11  9 - 2 -0 +1 B D+ F -2 F A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 178 Montana W 94 - 54 97%  +17  10 - 2 +36 +13 A+ A+ F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 84 @California W 90 - 70 77%  +16  11 - 2 1 - 0 +30 +21 A+ A- B+ +9 A+ A- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 79 @Stanford L 76 - 80 75%  -3  11 - 3 1 - 1 +7 +16 C A+ B -10 C D C
 Tue, Jan 6 6 Duke L 73 - 84 48%  +2  11 - 4 1 - 2 +7 +4 B+ C+ C+ +4 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 151 Boston College W 84 - 64 97% 
 Tue, Jan 13 22 Virginia W 80 - 75 67% 
 Sat, Jan 17 82 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 76% 
 Sat, Jan 24 68 Virginia Tech W 85 - 73 87% 
 Mon, Jan 26 6 @Duke L 77 - 83 28% 
 Sat, Jan 31 28 SMU W 86 - 80 72% 
 Wed, Feb 4 59 Notre Dame W 79 - 68 85% 
 Sat, Feb 7 62 @Wake Forest W 83 - 77 70% 
 Mon, Feb 9 34 North Carolina St. W 85 - 78 73% 
 Sat, Feb 14 32 Baylor W 84 - 80 63% 
 Tue, Feb 17 28 @SMU W 84 - 83 50% 
 Sat, Feb 21 114 Georgia Tech W 88 - 71 94% 
 Mon, Feb 23 26 @North Carolina L 79 - 80 48% 
 Sat, Feb 28 39 @Clemson W 75 - 73 55% 
 Tue, Mar 3 69 Syracuse W 84 - 72 86% 
 Sat, Mar 7 36 @Miami (FL) W 81 - 80 53% 
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +18 +11 A+ B B- +6 A+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.7 5.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.7 5.7 1.3 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.6 7.4 1.8 0.1 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 7.6 3.1 0.1 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.3 5.0 0.4 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 6.6 1.3 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 2.9 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.3 2.9 3.7 0.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.7 9.0 14.7 19.3 19.4 16.1 9.9 3.8 0.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 94.2% 0.7    0.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 61.5% 2.3    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 22.5% 2.2    0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.5% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.1 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.8% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 2.5 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.9% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 3.3 0.4 1.7 3.5 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.1% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 4.2 0.1 0.7 3.8 5.6 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 19.4% 99.9% 16.3% 83.6% 5.1 0.2 1.5 4.5 6.4 4.6 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 19.3% 99.5% 11.9% 87.6% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.3 5.5 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-8 14.7% 98.3% 9.0% 89.3% 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.9 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.3 98.1%
9-9 9.0% 95.2% 6.0% 89.2% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 94.9%
8-10 4.7% 79.0% 2.7% 76.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 78.4%
7-11 1.8% 47.7% 1.7% 46.0% 10.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9 46.8%
6-12 0.6% 20.7% 0.9% 19.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 20.0%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 96.7% 15.5% 81.2% 5.6 3.3 96.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.6 29.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.2 13.8 48.3 37.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 30.0 50.0 20.0