Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.3 39
Results Rating +15.1 31
Pace 70.1 135
Improvement -2.2 265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense B+ 45 B+ A- C+ C+ B
Defense B 43 B- B+ B B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 2 B+ 66% 34 +10.9 1
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 165 C+ 40% 111 -0.4 200
Three Pointers 31% 349 C+ 35% 138 -4.8 325
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.1 50 B +4.4 50
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 38
Second Chance A- 38.5% 12 B- 1.09 97 A- 0.42 25
Turnovers C+ 15.7% 113
Freethrows B- 0.34 73 D+ 69% 278 C+ 0.24 127
Total Offense B+ +7.7 45

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B 57% 60 C+ 10.2% 135
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 263 B 2.9% 48
Three Pointers B+ 91% 33 C+ 0.8% 161
Total C+ 58% 119 C- 6.0% 220

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 297 B- 54% 80 -3.7 63
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 61 B 34% 46 +0.5 232
Three Pointers 41% 176 D+ 36% 252 +1.0 230
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 60 C+ -1.4 123
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 108
Second Chance A 23.4% 9 C- 1.05 217 B+ 0.25 35
Turnovers B 19.2% 53
Freethrows B+ 0.25 32 B+ 69% 27 B+ 0.17 25
Total Defense B +5.6 43

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 50% 199 B- 14.0% 69
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 310 D+ 3.2% 282
Three Pointers C+ 82% 128 C 0.9% 149
Total C- 58% 226 C+ 6.0% 144

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 56 18.3 319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 59 0.12 37
Improvement +1.0 #133 -3.2 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Prediction Sensitivity
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 45 39 29
Results Rating Rank 44 34 24
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 14 - 4
Conference Finish 6 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 6% 9% 2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87% 91% 80%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86% 91% 80%
Average Seed 8.7 8.4 9.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 5% 12%
First Round83% 89% 74%
Second Round38% 43% 31%
Sweet Sixteen8% 9% 6%
Elite Eight2% 2% 2%
Final Four1% 1% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida St. (Away) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 34 - 114 - 9
Quad 410 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 306 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 98% +9  93% 1 - 0 B- +5 C +1 C A+ F B- +3 D- A B-
 Thu, Nov 6 240 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  98% 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +21 A+ D A+ A +11 A+ D D+
 Mon, Nov 10 326 Stetson W 102 - 61 99% +18  72% 3 - 0 A+ +27 B +7 A- D C A+ +16 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Florida L 68 - 82 17% -7  5% 3 - 1 B +10 C- -1 C C- A- A+ +12 B- A+ B
 Thu, Nov 20 227 Elon W 99 - 72 96% +10  99% 4 - 1 A +20 A +12 B A+ B A- +7 F A A+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  95% 5 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +16 A+ B- B A+ +20 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 20 BYU L 62 - 72 33% -3  37% 5 - 2 B- +8 D- -6 F B+ B A+ +14 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 71 Georgetown W 78 - 65 70% +14  99% 6 - 2 A +21 A +12 A+ B F A +10 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 60% +8  86% 7 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 241 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  47% 8 - 2 A- +17 B +7 B- B+ D+ A +9 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  99% 9 - 2 B +8 A+ +18 A+ B- A F -10 F D+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 184 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  77% 10 - 2 B+ +12 A +14 A+ B A C- -3 D+ C+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 340 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  92% 11 - 2 A+ +23 A- +10 A- B C- A +10 A D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 98 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 85% -1  42% 12 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 B +6 F A+ B B +4 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 65 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 57% -1  32% 13 - 2 2 - 0 A- +16 A +12 C A+ C+ B +4 F+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 140 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 91% +10  99% 14 - 2 3 - 0 B +8 A- +11 A C+ A+ C- -3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 86 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 64% +5  80% 15 - 2 4 - 0 A +22 A +13 A D+ A- A +9 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 41 @Clemson L 59 - 69 39% -9  0% 15 - 3 4 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 C B F A- +7 D- A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 80 Florida St. L 63 - 65 80% -0  40% 15 - 4 4 - 2 C+ +2 F -10 F B- C- A+ +12 C A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 73 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 60% +6  96% 16 - 4 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +15 A+ A+ F B +4 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 77 Stanford W 79 - 70 80% +1  59% 17 - 4 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 A B A+ B +4 B- D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 70 California L 85 - 86 78% +2  54% 17 - 5 6 - 3 C+ +4 A+ +15 A A+ A+ F -11 C B F+
 Sat, Feb 7 139 @Boston College W 74 - 68 80% +4  95% 18 - 5 7 - 3 B +10 B- +4 A+ C- F+ B+ +6 A- C F
 Tue, Feb 10 27 North Carolina W 75 - 66 55% +4  93% 19 - 5 8 - 3 A +21 B- +5 B+ C+ B+ A+ +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 24 @North Carolina St. W 77 - 76 30% -1  26% 20 - 5 9 - 3 A +20 A+ +15 C- A+ A+ B +4 C+ C+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 57 Virginia Tech W 67 - 66 73% -1  30% 21 - 5 10 - 3 B- +8 C+ +3 D A+ B B+ +5 D+ A B+
 Sat, Feb 21 22 @Virginia L 83 - 86 25% +0  35% 21 - 6 10 - 4 A- +17 A+ +24 A A+ B+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 24 80 @Florida St. W 82 - 79 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 Boston College W 79 - 64 92%
 Wed, Mar 4 31 @SMU L 80 - 85 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 11 Louisville L 80 - 83 39%
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +13 B+ +8 A+ B B B +6 C+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B+ C+ C+ B 50% 39% 31% B B+ A- B- A- C+ B- D+ C+ B B- B D+ C+ 34% 25% 41% B B- A C- B+ B B+ B+ B+
1.20 66% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.14 38% 1.1 .42 16% .34 69% .24 1.01 54% 34% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .25 19% .25 69% .23
Nov
3
Jacksonville C A C+ F C- 61% 11% 27% A C B A+ A+ F A+ A A+ B- F B B D- 33% 17% 50% C- D- A+ F+ A B- B+ A+ A+
1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49 0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12
Nov
6
Bethune-Cookman A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 61% 14% 25% A- A+ C+ F D A+ C D C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B- A+ D D+ D D+ C C C
1.40 72% 38% 47% +13 +3 1.34 33% 0.9 .30 8% .33 68% .23 0.84 44% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 31% 1.1 .33 17% .32 68% .22
Nov
10
Stetson B A- A+ B- B+ 52% 12% 37% A- A- C F+ D C A+ D+ A A+ F A+ A A+ 20% 29% 51% A A+ A F C+ B F A+ D-
1.29 71% 57% 36% +10 +2 1.27 32% 1.0 .32 15% .39 69% .27 0.77 70% 7% 27% -12 -2 0.73 19% 1.3 .24 22% .42 58% .24
Nov
16
Florida C- F F A+ D+ 55% 26% 19% A C A F C- A- A+ F B A+ B- F B- B 43% 6% 51% D+ B- A+ A- A+ B F A D-
0.89 41% 27% 45% -9 +1 0.84 31% 0.4 .12 13% .40 56% .22 1.07 59% 67% 31% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.9 .28 18% .46 66% .30
Nov
20
Elon A A- D+ A B+ 44% 20% 35% C+ B A+ B+ A+ B A- D+ B+ A- D+ C+ F F 46% 13% 41% C+ F A+ F A A+ C- A+ B
1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25 0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18
Nov
23
Delaware St. A+ A+ F A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% C+ A+ B C- B- B C- F F+ A+ A A B B+ 33% 36% 31% C+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ B-
1.37 84% 25% 45% +17 +1 1.38 38% 1.1 .41 16% .32 58% .18 0.58 40% 25% 29% -13 -2 0.71 25% 0.1 .02 27% .33 53% .17
Nov
27
BYU D- F C+ F F 51% 15% 34% A+ F B+ B- B+ B B+ F D- A+ A+ B F B+ 43% 23% 34% D+ B A+ A A+ A D+ A+ C+
0.90 41% 38% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.2 .38 15% .29 41% .12 1.05 45% 36% 50% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 19% .36 65% .23
Nov
28
Georgetown A D- A+ A+ A+ 56% 22% 22% A A+ B+ C B F B- B- B A B A+ A+ A+ 33% 22% 46% C+ A+ F+ F F B+ F A D
1.20 48% 90% 60% +15 +1 1.33 36% 1.0 .36 23% .32 75% .24 1.00 53% 10% 24% -15 -1 0.72 40% 1.4 .55 17% .44 67% .30
Dec
2
Mississippi B+ C- C+ A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% A+ A+ A+ C A+ F C D+ C- A+ A+ A+ D A+ 16% 40% 44% A A+ C- C- D+ B+ A+ F+ A
1.12 53% 40% 47% +7 +2 1.19 50% 1.1 .53 28% .31 67% .21 0.98 33% 23% 38% -8 -4 0.78 32% 1.1 .36 16% .20 82% .16
Dec
6
Southern Miss B A D- B- B 45% 24% 31% C- B- A+ F B+ D+ B+ C+ B+ A C A- A+ B 41% 30% 28% C- B D- F F A+ C+ A- B
1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28 0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24
Dec
13
Louisiana Monroe A+ A- A- A+ A 59% 3% 38% A+ A+ A D- B- A C+ F D F B- A+ F F 29% 18% 54% C F C+ F D+ D- A A+ A+
1.47 71% 50% 45% +14 +4 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 11% .27 53% .14 1.11 50% 20% 47% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.2 .28 14% .23 57% .13
Dec
16
Florida International A A+ A+ D- A+ 55% 9% 36% A A+ A D B A A+ C- A+ C- D- F A+ D 43% 26% 30% B D+ D+ B+ C+ C+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34 1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23
Dec
21
North Florida A- A A+ D- A 47% 16% 36% C+ A- A+ F B C- A+ C- A+ A A A+ C A 27% 14% 59% B- A B F D A+ D- F F
1.40 73% 78% 30% +11 +1 1.27 50% 1.0 .50 13% .44 69% .31 0.89 46% 0% 34% -8 0 0.86 22% 1.5 .33 27% .29 88% .25
Dec
30
Pittsburgh B B+ A- F F 38% 24% 38% D+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ C+ A+ B D D A+ B+ 32% 26% 42% A A- A+ F C F C A+ B+
1.15 65% 45% 12% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.1 .46 15% .46 77% .36 1.04 65% 43% 23% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 11% .29 53% .15
Jan
7
Wake Forest A A+ B+ F C- 49% 16% 36% B C A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ B A+ F F F 27% 31% 41% A+ F+ A+ F A+ B+ A- B+ A
1.18 73% 43% 13% -4 +1 0.98 45% 1.3 .59 19% .54 77% .41 1.12 36% 63% 52% +13 -2 1.24 14% 1.8 .25 18% .25 71% .18
Jan
10
Georgia Tech A- A+ F B A 35% 19% 46% B- A D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F+ A+ C- D- C F D 31% 45% 24% A+ C A- C+ B+ C+ F F F
1.22 78% 20% 38% +6 0 1.13 25% 1.4 .34 11% .48 66% .32 1.09 67% 36% 42% +5 -4 1.04 26% 1.1 .29 19% .45 85% .38
Jan
13
Notre Dame A A+ A+ D A 37% 24% 39% C+ A C+ F D+ A- A- A- A A B- F B C 28% 28% 44% A- C+ D C+ C- A+ D- B- D+
1.20 74% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 12% .35 81% .28 1.02 58% 58% 32% +4 -2 1.07 38% 0.9 .34 27% .36 67% .24
Jan
17
Clemson C- B- F D- C- 36% 19% 45% B C A D+ B F C B- C+ A- B+ F F D- 51% 15% 34% D+ D- A+ C+ A+ A- A+ B A+
0.91 59% 22% 29% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 25% .29 79% .23 1.07 54% 57% 50% +9 +2 1.23 15% 1.0 .15 19% .19 70% .13
Jan
20
Florida St. F C+ F F F 49% 24% 27% B- F D+ A+ B- C- C C+ C A+ B F+ D- D+ 41% 27% 33% A C A+ A+ A+ A B C B
0.91 58% 17% 23% -9 0 0.84 26% 1.2 .31 20% .27 73% .20 0.94 55% 46% 38% +3 -1 1.06 13% 0.5 .07 19% .27 73% .20
Jan
24
Syracuse A+ B+ A A+ A+ 57% 19% 23% B+ A+ B- A+ A+ F C- A C+ B C+ F C+ C 43% 25% 32% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A
1.23 63% 44% 55% +11 +2 1.28 33% 1.6 .54 23% .28 80% .23 1.10 58% 57% 33% +5 0 1.11 15% 0.8 .12 9% .24 67% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28
Stanford A- B C+ A A 51% 28% 21% B- A A+ F B A+ A+ F A B A+ A+ F B- 41% 16% 43% B+ B- C D D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33 1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09
Jan
31
California A+ A+ C- D- A+ 44% 31% 24% D A D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F F A+ F+ C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A- D+ B F+ F B- F
1.26 75% 36% 27% +4 -1 1.09 25% 2.1 .54 10% .55 70% .38 1.28 77% 27% 41% +6 -2 1.10 22% 1.1 .25 10% .53 75% .40
Feb
7
Boston College B- B+ D+ B A 58% 13% 29% A+ A+ C D C- F+ A+ F B B+ B- A B A- 25% 29% 46% B+ A- A+ F C F A+ D- A
1.06 64% 33% 36% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.8 .21 19% .44 52% .23 0.97 53% 29% 30% -7 -2 0.85 18% 1.7 .30 10% .16 70% .11
Feb
10
North Carolina B- A+ D+ D A- 44% 37% 19% C- B+ B+ D- C+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ B+ A B A+ 32% 25% 44% A- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ F A+
1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23 0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14
Feb
14
North Carolina St. A+ B- D+ F D+ 61% 18% 22% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F D+ B C+ D- D C+ 35% 18% 47% B C+ C+ C+ C+ B+ B+ F C+
1.19 58% 33% 18% -6 +2 0.94 49% 1.1 .54 14% .36 50% .18 1.17 59% 44% 39% +5 0 1.12 29% 1.3 .36 15% .27 87% .24
Feb
17
Virginia Tech C+ B+ F F D 40% 30% 30% D+ D B A+ A+ B C+ D+ C B+ D+ C F D 40% 22% 38% C D+ A B+ A B+ A+ A A+
1.07 65% 27% 20% -7 -1 0.86 35% 1.5 .51 16% .25 69% .17 1.05 65% 36% 42% +7 0 1.16 26% 1.0 .26 18% .06 67% .04
Feb
21
Virginia A+ C+ C A+ A+ 38% 31% 31% C A A+ A+ A+ B+ B- A+ A+ D- F+ F F F 43% 11% 47% D+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ C- F F
1.28 55% 38% 44% +3 -1 1.06 39% 1.5 .58 14% .30 94% .29 1.33 70% 60% 55% +22 +2 1.49 18% 0.5 .09 14% .32 89% .29




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 3.8 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 16.0 26.6 4.3 46.9 3rd
4th 1.3 19.2 1.5 21.9 4th
5th 0.0 6.4 5.8 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 8.2 8.4 6th
7th 0.5 2.6 3.1 7th
8th 0.7 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 1.5 18.6 41.1 30.8 8.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.1% 99.1% 4.5% 94.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.1%
13-5 30.8% 94.7% 4.2% 90.5% 8.1 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.3 9.2 7.3 3.0 0.5 1.6 94.5%
12-6 41.1% 86.2% 2.4% 83.9% 9.2 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.9 10.9 11.0 4.0 0.0 5.6 85.9%
11-7 18.6% 72.6% 1.3% 71.2% 9.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.2 4.2 0.0 5.1 72.2%
10-8 1.5% 46.8% 0.5% 46.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.8 46.6%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.8% 2.9% 83.9% 8.7 13.2 86.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.8 10.0 25.5 41.8 22.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 99.7% 6.1 3.1 20.9 48.5 22.4 4.3 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 99.2% 6.8 0.1 6.5 29.1 42.7 17.3 3.1 0.4
Lose Out 0.6% 25.5% 10.8 7.4 17.0 1.1