Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.6 #36
Expected Predictive Rating +16.8 #20
Pace 72.0 #97
Improvement -0.6 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #43 A- A- B- B- A
Defense #35 B C+ A- B+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 53% #1 1.29 #64 +11.5 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #271 0.91 #26 -0.4 #197
Three Pointers 31% #344 1.00 #201 -5.2 #326
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #42 +6.0 #43
Freethrows 19.7 #74 71% #229 14.0 #100
Second Chance 40.1% #9 1.04 #184 0.42 #32
Turnovers 15.3% #100
Total Offense +7.2 #43

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.08 #87 +4.5 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #97 0.58 #11 +1.0 #126
Three Pointers 44% #108 1.03 #207 -1.8 #256
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #70 +3.7 #70
Freethrows 16.5 #146 63% #1 10.4 #316
Second Chance 26.3% #48 1.13 #285 0.30 #123
Turnovers 20.0% #32
Total Defense +6.4 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #20 -1.5% #63
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.2% #63 -5.8% #78
Possession Length 15.7 #53 18.2 #313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #57 0.13 #43
Improvement +1.2 #99 -1.8 #293

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.3% 5.8% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 22.8% 24.3% 10.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.0% 80.4% 68.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.6% 79.0% 66.9%
Average Seed 7.7 7.7 8.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.8% 96.8% 87.5%
Conference Champion 12.0% 13.0% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.3% 7.8% 12.9%
First Round74.9% 76.5% 62.4%
Second Round43.0% 44.5% 31.2%
Sweet Sixteen12.7% 13.3% 7.8%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.4% 2.4%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 19 - 8
Quad 36 - 115 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 328 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 99%  +9  1 - 0 +4 +4 C- A+ F -1 D- A- B-
 Thu, Nov 6 278 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 97%  +20  2 - 0 +30 +19 A+ F A+ +10 A+ F C+
 Mon, Nov 10 337 Stetson W 102 - 61 99%  +18  3 - 0 +27 +10 B+ D C+ +12 A+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 12 Florida L 68 - 82 32%  -7  3 - 1 +4 -1 C D+ B +6 C A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 163 Elon W 99 - 72 93%  +10  4 - 1 +23 +17 A A+ B +6 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 352 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99%  +31  5 - 1 +40 +21 A+ B- A+ +19 C+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 8 BYU L 62 - 72 26%  -3  5 - 2 +10 -1 D- B- A- +11 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 Georgetown W 78 - 65 80%  +14  6 - 2 +18 +13 A+ B- F +6 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 71 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 60%  +8  7 - 2 +20 +11 A+ A+ F +10 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 201 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 95%  +5  8 - 2 +19 +9 B B+ F +9 B D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 356 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99%  +12  9 - 2 +8 +20 A+ B A+ -12 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 164 Florida International W 98 - 81 94%  +6  10 - 2 +13 +15 A+ C A+ -3 C B B
 Sun, Dec 21 350 North Florida W 105 - 67 99%  +18  11 - 2 +22 +13 A+ B- C +6 A+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 82 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 81%  -1  12 - 2 1 - 0 +11 +9 F A+ B- +3 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 62 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 56%  -1  13 - 2 2 - 0 +16 +17 C A+ A- -1 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 114 Georgia Tech W 83 - 70 89% 
 Tue, Jan 13 59 @Notre Dame W 72 - 71 55% 
 Sat, Jan 17 39 @Clemson L 70 - 72 41% 
 Tue, Jan 20 111 Florida St. W 88 - 76 88% 
 Sat, Jan 24 69 @Syracuse W 76 - 74 59% 
 Wed, Jan 28 79 Stanford W 80 - 71 79% 
 Sat, Jan 31 84 California W 81 - 71 81% 
 Sat, Feb 7 151 @Boston College W 76 - 66 83% 
 Tue, Feb 10 26 North Carolina W 77 - 76 56% 
 Sat, Feb 14 34 @North Carolina St. L 77 - 80 39% 
 Tue, Feb 17 68 Virginia Tech W 80 - 72 77% 
 Sat, Feb 21 22 @Virginia L 73 - 78 31% 
 Tue, Feb 24 111 @Florida St. W 85 - 79 72% 
 Sat, Feb 28 151 Boston College W 79 - 63 94% 
 Wed, Mar 4 28 @SMU L 78 - 82 37% 
 Sat, Mar 7 15 Louisville L 80 - 81 47% 
Totals 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14 +7 A- A- B- +6 B C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 3.1 1.3 0.2 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.5 8.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.3 8.3 3.1 0.3 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 7.2 3.6 0.3 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.7 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.6 4.8 1.0 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 1.9 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.3 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.5 10.5 14.3 17.8 18.5 14.6 8.7 4.2 1.4 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 94.1% 1.3    1.0 0.3
16-2 72.7% 3.1    2.0 1.0 0.1
15-3 47.1% 4.1    1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 18.8% 2.8    0.4 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
13-5 3.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 5.4 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 3.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 99.6% 13.3% 86.3% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 8.7% 99.5% 11.8% 87.7% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.6 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.5%
14-4 14.6% 98.6% 9.4% 89.2% 6.7 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.6 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.5%
13-5 18.5% 93.8% 8.4% 85.5% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.0 4.5 3.5 1.7 0.3 1.1 93.3%
12-6 17.8% 85.2% 4.8% 80.4% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.3 4.4 3.6 1.2 0.0 2.6 84.4%
11-7 14.3% 70.9% 2.6% 68.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.3 2.4 0.0 4.2 70.1%
10-8 10.5% 51.0% 1.1% 49.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.2 0.0 5.2 50.5%
9-9 5.5% 31.0% 0.7% 30.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.0 3.8 30.5%
8-10 2.6% 13.4% 0.4% 13.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 13.1%
7-11 1.1% 3.6% 0.5% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.2%
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.0% 6.2% 72.8% 7.7 21.0 77.6%