Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.6 #40
Expected Predictive Rating +12.8 #45
Pace 70.9 #124
Improvement -3.3 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 B+ B+ B- C+ B
Defense #48 B- B B B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.31 #34 +10.9 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #223 0.84 #60 -0.2 #185
Three Pointers 32% #344 1.05 #128 -4.3 #320
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #30 +6.4 #30
Freethrows 0.34 #77 69% #273 0.23 #121
Second Chance 38.3% #15 1.06 #127 0.41 #37
Turnovers 15.5% #108
Total Offense +7.2 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.07 #78 +4.0 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #57 0.67 #48 -0.6 #232
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.06 #244 -0.9 #226
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #96 +2.5 #97
Freethrows 0.27 #87 67% #7 0.18 #49
Second Chance 25.3% #24 1.03 #185 0.26 #52
Turnovers 19.7% #37
Total Defense +5.3 #48

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #37 -1.7% #51
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.9% #42 -3.3% #110
Possession Length 15.7 #42 18.4 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #54 0.12 #33
Improvement +0.2 #162 -3.6 #340

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 4.3% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.3% 72.3% 59.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.6% 71.6% 58.9%
Average Seed 9.2 9.1 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 97.5% 84.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.2% 12.6% 15.2%
First Round62.9% 66.1% 52.2%
Second Round28.0% 30.6% 19.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.0% 6.8% 3.2%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.5% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 76.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 295 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 97% +9  1 - 0 +6 +5 C A+ F +0 D A- B
 Thu, Nov 6 236 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 96% +20  2 - 0 +33 +23 A+ D A+ +9 A+ D C-
 Mon, Nov 10 329 Stetson W 102 - 61 98% +18  3 - 0 +28 +11 A- D+ C +12 A+ C B+
 Sun, Nov 16 5 Florida L 68 - 82 19% -7  3 - 1 +8 +0 C C- A- +9 C+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 20 192 Elon W 99 - 72 94% +10  4 - 1 +22 +16 B+ A+ B +4 F+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 353 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  5 - 1 +39 +20 A+ B B+ +19 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 15 BYU L 62 - 72 29% -3  5 - 2 +8 -2 F+ B+ B+ +11 B- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 78 Georgetown W 78 - 65 70% +14  6 - 2 +20 +14 A+ B F +7 A+ F B+
 Tue, Dec 2 59 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 51% +8  7 - 2 +21 +12 A+ A+ F +10 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 250 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  8 - 2 +16 +9 B- B D +6 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 360 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  9 - 2 +7 +21 A+ B A+ -14 F D F+
 Tue, Dec 16 188 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  10 - 2 +12 +16 A+ C+ A -5 C- C B-
 Sun, Dec 21 351 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  11 - 2 +22 +11 B+ B- C- +9 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 93 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 82% -1  12 - 2 1 - 0 +10 +8 F+ A+ B- +2 A- C F
 Wed, Jan 7 75 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 57% -1  13 - 2 2 - 0 +15 +15 C A+ B -0 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 115 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 87% +10  14 - 2 3 - 0 +10 +15 A+ B- A -5 C+ B B-
 Tue, Jan 13 81 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 61% +5  15 - 2 4 - 0 +22 +16 A D+ B+ +6 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 33 @Clemson L 59 - 69 33% -9  15 - 3 4 - 1 +7 +2 C+ B- F +5 D A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 101 Florida St. L 63 - 65 84% -0  15 - 4 4 - 2 -0 -9 F C+ C +8 C- A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 68 @Syracuse W 85 - 76 55% +6  16 - 4 5 - 2 +20 +19 A+ A+ D- +2 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 86 Stanford W 79 - 70 80% +1  17 - 4 6 - 2 +12 +12 A- B- A+ +1 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 64 California L 85 - 86 74% +2  17 - 5 6 - 3 +5 +19 A A+ A+ -14 C- B D-
 Sat, Feb 7 127 @Boston College W 75 - 67 77%
 Tue, Feb 10 29 North Carolina W 81 - 80 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 23 @North Carolina St. L 76 - 83 26%
 Tue, Feb 17 60 Virginia Tech W 79 - 73 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 @Virginia L 72 - 79 26%
 Tue, Feb 24 101 @Florida St. W 84 - 79 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 127 Boston College W 78 - 64 90%
 Wed, Mar 4 39 @SMU L 79 - 83 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 16 Louisville L 79 - 81 41%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +13 +7 B+ B+ B- +5 B- B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 1.9 0.3 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 4.9 0.9 0.0 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.0 2.8 0.1 13.7 4th
5th 0.6 8.8 7.1 0.4 16.9 5th
6th 0.2 5.5 11.1 1.3 18.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 10.1 3.9 0.0 16.3 7th
8th 0.6 5.3 5.5 0.3 11.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.6 12.0 22.6 26.0 20.4 10.1 3.1 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 14.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.1% 99.0% 7.2% 91.9% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 98.9%
13-5 10.1% 95.6% 4.9% 90.6% 7.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.4 95.4%
12-6 20.4% 89.1% 3.1% 86.0% 8.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.6 6.1 4.3 0.9 2.2 88.8%
11-7 26.0% 75.6% 2.0% 73.5% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.2 7.2 3.9 0.0 6.3 75.0%
10-8 22.6% 58.2% 1.4% 56.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 4.7 5.6 0.1 9.5 57.6%
9-9 12.0% 38.1% 0.6% 37.6% 10.5 0.1 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.1 7.4 37.8%
8-10 4.6% 16.9% 0.8% 16.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 3.8 16.2%
7-11 1.0% 4.7% 4.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.7%
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 69.3% 2.3% 67.0% 9.2 30.7 68.6%